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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 5th - Page Three

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-05 19:49:42

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

San Francisco at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

San Francisco Atlanta
sanfranciscomlb Ty Blach atlantamlb Brandon McCarthy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-150 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.306 27.0% 6.0% 9.4% 57.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.296 27.1% 7.9% 20.3% 43.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.352 32.7% 7.1% 11.5% 45.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.312 25.5% 7.1% 17.0% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ty Blach
tyson-blach-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 5.36 4.78 10.6% 6.2% 46.7% 31.1% 18.4%
2018 7 4.75 4.10 12.4% 9.3% 57.9% 31.0% 15.9%

Blach is a low-strikeout pitcher, and the Braves are the hardest team for left-handers to strike out. This Braves team is extremely dangerous, especially in their home ballpark, so this is a clear avoid spot for me.

Quick Breakdown: Blach is not on my radar as an option with his lack of strikeouts against a contact-heavy Braves team.

Brandon McCarthy
brandon-mccarthy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.55 3.98 18.8% 7.0% 42.0% 27.7% 22.7%
2018 6 4.39 3.09 18.5% 8.9% 50.0% 22.5% 16.3%

McCarthy has done a good job limiting the damage done against him this season, as he’s limited teams to no more than three earned runs in all six of his starts so far this season. The Giants don’t have an explosive offense but I just don’t see myself playing McCarthy in tournaments when there are guys around his price range with higher upside in what I consider to be better matchups (Jameson Taillon vs Brewers and Caleb Smith vs Reds are two examples). I can understand wanting to chase the floor of someone like McCarthy against the Giants in cash games, however, as he’s really limiting hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: McCarthy has some appeal as an SP2 in cash games but in tournaments, I’d rather chase some of the upside of other pitchers in his price range.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.233 0.314 0.124 20.7% 4.8% 22.6% 47.6% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,000 2B $5,400
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.341 0.428 0.155 35.2% 11.3% 18.5% 42.8% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.350 0.353 0.113 30.5% 9.3% 11.9% 46.8% C $3,300 1B/C $3,700 C $7,500
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.421 0.503 0.284 42.3% 16.7% 22.4% 24.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,300
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.317 0.389 0.166 35.4% 4.4% 15.8% 42.4% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,400
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.281 0.059 0.113 27.7% 5.9% 23.0% 61.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 RF $5,000
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.313 0.254 0.145 34.9% 6.8% 22.2% 46.8% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
8 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.304 0.258 0.117 28.1% 12.7% 21.7% 43.6% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 LF $5,500
9 Ty Blach LEFT 0.245 0.093 0.091 33.3% 10.3% 43.6% 42.9% P $5,900 P $4,900 P $9,200

Update 3:48pm EST – The Giants moved Alen Hanson back down to 7th in order so I’m removing him as an elite value play.

The Giants’ offense woke up a bit on Friday. This is a solid ballpark for batters and nobody likes rostering the Giants. Both Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are swinging the bat well, and Buster Posey is starting to heat up a bit. Alen Hanson was also moved into the leadoff spot and provided a spark of offense, so I’m thinking he may stick there. If he’s hitting leadoff again, I don’t mind him as a salary saver. Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria would be included in my Giants stacks, but I may prefer just picking out the cheap bats as opposed to stacking against McCarthy given how good he’s been at limiting hard contact so far this season.

Elite Plays – Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.391 0.324 0.342 36.1% 8.0% 9.2% 45.1% 2B $4,600 2B $5,100 2B $10,100
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.308 0.375 0.571 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 CF $8,900
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.396 0.505 0.260 35.9% 10.1% 21.3% 37.6% 1B $4,700 1B $5,400 1B $11,000
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.318 0.438 0.145 29.3% 8.5% 16.6% 49.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 RF $9,400
5 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.270 0.129 22.5% 11.2% 26.7% 45.9% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,400
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.414 0.331 0.384 41.8% 7.3% 7.3% 26.9% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,600
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.366 0.285 0.278 32.8% 4.8% 21.7% 39.3% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600
8 Brandon McCarthy RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% P $7,600 P $7,600 P $14,700
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.272 0.317 0.064 17.1% 8.9% 12.0% 60.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 CF $8,600

Ozzie Albies has a massive difference in splits against left-handers that works in his favor, so this doesn’t bode well for Ty Blach. Ronald Acuna, Kurt Suzuki and possibly even Jose Bautista are in good spots as well (if you still believe Bautista has anything left in the tank). I’m all for a Braves stack, and if you decide to roll one out, I think you have to consider including Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis despite them being lefties. It’s not ideal but both have hit lefties very well this season.

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Boston Texas
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez texasmlb Cole Hamels
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.323 29.9% 8.3% 29.6% 32.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.241 0.306 30.7% 4.6% 18.3% 57.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.304 30.0% 8.9% 24.8% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.348 40.4% 9.7% 19.4% 43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 5 3.98 4.78 25.2% 9.6% 46.6% 26.0% 19.2%

People may shy away from the Eduardo Rodriguez experience after the roller coaster he put people on in his last start where he struggled with his command over four innings against the Royals. This is a similar spot where Rodriguez gets to face a below-average offense in the Rangers. The upside is there, it’s just whether we can trust Rodriguez in this spot. I think there are safer options for cash games on this slate, but I’m fine with Rodriguez in tournaments. I’d expect his ownership to be a fraction of what it was in his last start.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is better suited for tournaments given his control issues. This is a spot with strikeout upside, however, and he’ll likely draw lower ownership because of his last poor outing.

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.90 4.20 17.1% 8.6% 47.5% 35.7% 13.7%
2018 7 3.76 4.08 26.4% 9.0% 40.9% 48.2% 13.6%

The 26.4% K% has been solid for Cole Hamels this season and it’s actually higher than his career average. The red flag for me is his 48.2% hard hit rate, which is an all-time high. He has a HR/9 ratio of 1.82 and he now has to face a Red Sox offense that can put up runs in a hurry. It’s worth noting that the Red Sox have struggled against lefties this season. They got no-hit by Sean Manaea, struck out nine times to Blake Snell, and most recently lost to Mike Minor. I will point out they did beat up Danny Duffy recently, so they’ve had some minor victories against southpaws as well. Common sense suggests you shouldn’t play Cole Hamels against this Red Sox offense, especially in cash games. The numbers, however, suggest this Red Sox offense is below-average against lefties.

I’ll just say this – Hamels is cheap and nobody is going to play him. If you’re building multiple teams in tournaments and aren’t afraid to YOLO an SP2 spot, I don’t think it’s crazy to have a share of Hamels.

Quick Breakdown: I can’t recommend playing Cole Hamels against the Red Sox in cash games, even though the numbers suggest the Red Sox aren’t great against lefties.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.588 0.299 33.8% 14.8% 7.7% 41.5% OF $5,400 OF $5,900 RF $11,500
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.293 0.288 0.051 21.2% 14.3% 21.1% 53.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $8,900
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.330 0.358 0.180 37.4% 13.1% 22.2% 44.4% 1B $4,100 1B $4,400 1B $8,100
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.473 0.400 0.442 54.1% 12.3% 26.1% 30.6% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $10,300
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.307 0.374 0.119 27.6% 10.4% 16.0% 49.5% SS $4,200 SS $5,200 SS $10,100
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.326 0.349 0.198 36.4% 9.0% 29.2% 45.5% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.298 0.265 0.111 28.5% 5.2% 11.0% 51.7% 2B $3,300 2B/SS $3,700 3B $7,500
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.329 0.267 0.143 24.6% 2.5% 15.2% 44.6% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,900
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.304 0.316 0.100 27.9% 7.7% 23.8% 64.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,600

You’ll want to prioritize the right-handed batters on the Red Sox. Mookie Betts is playing like an MVP and is going to be an elite play on every slate until he stops hitting. J.D. Martinez is also an elite play, and I don’t mind Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts as well.

In tournaments I may take an underweight approach on the Red Sox if I suspect they’re going to be extremely popular or the chalk stack on this main slate. I generally try to take an underweight approach in tournaments to the team with the highest implied team total as a way to pivot elsewhere. I’m also not completely sure if I want to center my DFS teams on the Red Sox considering the numbers they’ve posted against left-handed pitchers hasn’t been phenomenal this season. I understand this #taek could completely backfire on me but I try to take stands on large slates and I’m just trying to share my thought process.

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.264 0.263 0.150 23.9% 11.0% 29.0% 38.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,400
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.334 0.391 0.080 25.0% 10.6% 18.6% 61.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 RF $7,500
3 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.240 0.344 0.063 0.0% 15.8% 21.1% 41.7% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.281 0.384 0.125 27.5% 5.2% 23.3% 58.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.375 0.422 0.246 44.3% 12.4% 39.8% 21.7% OF $3,500 1B/OF $4,300 1B $7,700
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.404 0.326 0.391 47.4% 20.7% 13.8% 15.8% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,700
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.309 0.347 0.273 31.3% 4.2% 29.2% 25.0% 3B $2,100 3B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,800
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.352 0.289 0.261 42.4% 11.4% 25.7% 33.3% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,400
9 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.311 0.199 0.128 45.6% 8.1% 25.6% 50.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,500

Rodriguez has been death to lefties, so I’d focus on the right-handed bats on the Rangers. Unfortunately for the Rangers, they don’t have many good right-handed bats. Robinson Chirinos is viable as a one-off, but I’m not a huge Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Delino Deshields guy. There aren’t enough quality right-handed batters for me to want to stack the Rangers, so this is likely a spot I won’t have much exposure to.

Elite Plays – Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Plays – Delino Deshields, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Stackability – RED

Houston at Arizona – 8:10 PM ET

Houston Arizona
houstonmlb Charlie Morton arizonamlb Zack Greinke
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-110 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.233 0.264 26.7% 8.6% 34.3% 46.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.308 36.6% 5.5% 26.0% 48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.309 26.1% 8.0% 21.4% 56.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.287 35.0% 4.9% 28.3% 43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.70 3.62 26.4% 8.1% 51.8% 26.9% 22.1%
2018 6 3.05 1.72 31.0% 9.0% 57.1% 23.5% 28.2%

Charlie Morton transformation into an elite strikeout pitcher has been pretty amazing (note to self: write a movie script titled “The Charlie Morton Transformation” about a young boy discovering the joys of life during his high school years). Morton’s 31% K% is fantastic, and we just saw teammate Gerrit Cole mow down 16 batters the night before. Morton’s also generating 28.2% soft contact and now gets this Diamondbacks team with the humidor. The Diamondbacks have the fourth highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers. Morton is my favorite pitcher on the main slate and my SP1 on one-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is my favorite pitcher on the main slate and in-play in all formats. He’s my SP1 if playing on one-pitcher sites.

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.48 3.20 26.8% 5.6% 46.8% 35.1% 19.2%
2018 6 2.84 4.50 28.8% 2.7% 41.8% 39.8% 17.4%

Greinke will likely fly under the radar today in a tough matchup against the Astros. It’s interesting to note that Vegas has the Astros implied for around 4 runs, so Vegas is giving Greinke respect. We are getting a small price discount too on Greinke. If I’m paying up in cash games I’d rather pay the extra and go up to Charlie Morton, but I’m fine with Greinke in tournaments, who will probably come at a fraction of the ownership. Offensively, the Astros are around middle-of-the-pack against right-handed pitchers in terms of K% (16th in the majors). They also have a wRC+ of just 103. Left-handers have also had more success this season against Greinke and this Astros lineup is predominantly right-handed.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is a fine tournament play as his ownership will likely be depressed due to the matchup against the Astros. I’d rather pivot up to Charlie Morton in cash games but there’s merit to using some shares of Greinke in tournaments to differentiate yourself.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.371 0.406 0.218 36.3% 8.5% 19.3% 49.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 RF $9,000
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.366 0.335 0.179 29.0% 8.4% 12.6% 46.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,700 2B $10,200
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.384 0.394 0.236 35.7% 10.9% 22.1% 46.7% SS $4,000 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.332 0.291 0.193 33.6% 3.1% 10.5% 45.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.347 0.293 0.192 32.5% 9.4% 12.8% 33.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.348 0.374 0.162 33.5% 9.7% 15.8% 40.0% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.273 0.213 33.8% 10.9% 20.3% 44.2% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,500
8 Brian McCann LEFT 0.333 0.345 0.185 31.7% 9.9% 16.0% 35.6% C $2,200 C $3,500 C $6,300
9 Charlie Morton RIGHT 0.098 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $10,000 P $10,900 P $21,400

I respect Greinke enough where I don’t plan on stacking against him. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer are secondary options in my mind but we are getting a slight price decrease on them because the matchup against Greinke is being factored in. You can certainly stack the Astros in large-field tournaments as they will likely draw low ownership across the board, but that’s only something you should consider if building a ton of teams. If I were taking one offs, they’d be the left-handers of Josh Reddick or Brian McCann, but that’s still a stretch in my eyes.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, George Springer

Stackability – RED

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.334 0.331 0.182 37.9% 8.3% 16.7% 52.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
2 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.287 0.362 0.169 30.6% 6.8% 22.5% 39.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.383 0.312 0.243 41.3% 13.7% 25.3% 46.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,400 1B $8,600
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.356 0.448 0.217 38.0% 8.5% 19.0% 41.9% OF $4,600 OF $4,900 CF $9,500
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.353 0.096 0.250 35.3% 12.7% 29.8% 43.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.339 0.328 0.170 41.0% 12.6% 21.1% 35.3% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,700
7 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.285 0.319 0.174 32.0% 4.9% 23.2% 44.9% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,900
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.413 0.243 0.199 53.7% 16.6% 33.9% 36.7% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,700
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.264 0.305 0.043 29.0% 5.4% 25.0% 45.5% P $9,300 P $9,500 P $18,900

If you look at Morton’s splits for this season, left-handers are just 5-for-55 against him. Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and Steven Souza are the right-handed bats I’m most scared about in this Diamondbacks lineup. I consider them secondary plays on this slate as I’m not going to go out of my way to pick on Morton. You’ll likely get them at low ownership if that matters for you in tournaments, but there are other environments I’d rather attack on a large 10-game slate that I feel better about.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Oakland – 9:05 PM ET

Baltimore Oakland
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman oaklandmlb Trevor Cahill
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.346 30.4% 11.8% 20.7% 39.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.316 30.9% 14.4% 24.3% 57.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.346 34.2% 5.8% 22.4% 44.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.381 0.317 32.1% 8.4% 22.9% 53.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 6 4.20 4.15 20.1% 6.7% 41.1% 34.3% 16.7%

The A’s have the second highest wRC+ (115) against right-handed pitching this season and the 4th highest team ISO. There are some strikeouts to be had in this lineup and the ballpark should suppress some of the power, but Gausman is a tournament-only pitcher on this slate. He’s allowed at least one home run in all but one of his starts, which is my biggest concern.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman currently owns a HR/9 ratio of 2.08 and has to face an A’s team that has power against right-handed pitchers. He has strikeout upside so there’s merit to using him as an SP2 in tournaments, but that’s as far as I’d go.

Trevor Cahill
trevor-cahill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.43 4.93 22.8% 11.8% 55.6% 28.9% 22.4%
2018 3 3.31 3.00 27.1% 7.1% 55.8% 46.7% 8.9%

This is a solid spot for Trevor Cahill, who is averaging over a strikeout per inning and is looking like his early-2017 self. Cahill has shown reverse splits, so right-handers have been better against him. The top of this Orioles lineup consisting of Mancini, Jones and Machado is somewhat scary, but after these three the lineup gets less daunting. The Orioles have also been awful against right-handed pitching and have a team K% of 25.2%, fifth highest in the majors. I’m viewing Cahill as a solid option in all formats for your SP2 spot, and I’ve grown to like him more the more I dug into the numbers this morning.

Quick Breakdown: Cahill is viable in all formats factoring in his price and matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.356 0.379 0.200 35.1% 6.9% 22.9% 49.9% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,400
2 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.305 0.310 0.102 28.4% 13.1% 21.4% 57.8% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.372 0.497 0.214 36.3% 8.3% 16.5% 41.8% SS $4,700 SS $4,900 3B $9,100
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.322 0.337 0.190 31.4% 3.0% 18.5% 43.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.337 0.293 0.213 40.8% 12.5% 34.2% 40.0% 1B $2,700 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,900
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.302 0.269 0.154 30.7% 7.2% 25.6% 43.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,300
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.379 0.343 0.194 34.9% 11.4% 25.7% 40.9% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,300 1B $6,300
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.294 0.323 0.108 39.1% 2.3% 17.4% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.247 0.171 0.125 24.5% 3.0% 28.8% 46.5% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $5,000

You’ll want to use right-handers against Cahill, so Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Trey Mancini are the bats I have the most interest in, in that order. I’m more likely to roster Cahill than play any of these Orioles’ batters given the form Cahill has been in. This Orioles team can be strikeout prone and that’s going to make it hard to put together rallies against Cahill. This is also not a great park for power.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Stackability – RED

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.374 0.307 0.242 31.9% 13.5% 20.8% 34.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 RF $5,500
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.318 0.383 0.141 26.9% 9.0% 22.6% 37.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.378 0.431 0.203 36.8% 11.0% 15.0% 28.4% 2B $4,200 2B $4,400 2B $8,300
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.395 0.319 0.285 41.8% 9.7% 29.5% 37.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,400
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.391 0.407 0.348 44.0% 11.6% 31.4% 33.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.345 0.286 0.248 38.0% 9.9% 24.5% 35.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.324 0.388 0.203 34.8% 6.1% 30.6% 36.0% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.339 0.407 0.146 31.3% 11.4% 21.5% 49.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,500
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.329 0.345 0.111 25.8% 9.0% 11.2% 50.3% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,900

Gausman’s struggles with home runs makes me willing to take some shots at chasing the power bats in this lineup. I’m okay with a stack as well if you choose that route, but my preference is to hunt for the homers with Gausman. Matt Joyce is a nice salary saver, while Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olsen and Matt Chapman have plenty of power against right-handed pitching.

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olsen

Secondary Plays – Matt Chapman

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Seattle – 9:10 PM ET

LA Angels Seattle
laangelsmlb Tyler Skaggs seattlemlb Marco Gonzales
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-106 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.315 27.1% 5.9% 21.9% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.298 24.5% 4.4% 16.2% 53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.331 36.4% 8.1% 21.4% 43.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.380 0.364 36.4% 5.4% 21.8% 43.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
tyler-skaggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,100
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.44 4.55 20.8% 7.7% 41.8% 32.2% 20.8%
2018 6 3.76 3.03 23.4% 7.3% 50.5% 39.4% 10.6%

I like Tyler Skaggs as a pitcher but this doesn’t feel like the best matchup for him. The Mariners have the second lowest K% in the majors against left-handers. They also have two solid right-handed batters in Nelson Cruz and Mitch Haniger in the middle of that lineup. I don’t envision myself playing Skaggs today.

Quick Breakdown: Skaggs’ matchup against a contact-heavy Mariners lineup means I can’t recommend him in this spot.

Marco Gonzales
marco-gonzales-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.48 6.08 17.3% 6.0% 45.4% 29.1% 23.4%
2018 6 3.12 5.02 25.4% 4.1% 46.4% 41.2% 17.7%

Gonzales has displayed tremendous control so far (1.57 BB/9) and a fantastic 25.4% K% this season. My concern is that the Angels could roll out as many as nine right-handed batters, which is the side of the plate he’s had the most trouble with. The Angels are also the sixth hardest team for left-handers to strike out. This is a spot I’m passing on Gonzales because of the matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Similar to Tyler Skaggs, I’m planning to pass on Marco Gonzales as he’s going to face a right-handed heavy Angels team that generates lots of contact.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.365 0.279 0.231 40.7% 8.8% 10.8% 26.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,400 2B $6,500
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.406 0.500 0.248 35.0% 21.5% 16.2% 40.0% OF $5,700 OF $5,800 CF $11,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.401 0.282 0.329 42.3% 11.9% 20.8% 40.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.354 0.093 35.3% 6.9% 16.2% 43.6% 1B $3,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.328 0.419 0.120 26.7% 14.7% 11.2% 50.0% SS $3,700 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
6 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.349 0.205 0.250 35.9% 11.4% 13.6% 35.9% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,200 SS $6,600
7 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.276 0.300 0.198 21.1% 9.4% 16.7% 50.7% 1B $2,000 1B/3B $3,100 1B $5,900
8 Chris Young RIGHT 0.283 0.248 0.105 26.1% 12.2% 16.8% 37.0% OF $2,000 P $4,600 P $9,000
9 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.323 0.191 0.219 41.0% 7.2% 36.2% 23.1% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,600

You’ll have your choice of right-handed bats on the Angels tonight (it’s like a right-handed batters’ buffet!). Mike Trout is expensive but there aren’t the uber elite pitchers on this slate we need to pay up for, so you should be able to fit him in if you choose that route. Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Mr. 3000 Albert Pujols and the sizzling Andrelton Simmons are also options I’d look at.

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.251 0.293 0.054 12.1% 0.9% 11.6% 62.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 2B $7,400
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.355 0.361 0.115 35.3% 8.6% 13.1% 45.5% SS $3,800 SS $4,300 SS $8,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.318 0.447 0.104 33.3% 8.1% 15.7% 55.9% 2B $4,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,700
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.452 0.403 0.225 45.1% 19.0% 20.0% 39.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,300
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.300 0.342 0.172 29.3% 6.2% 19.0% 34.6% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.354 0.401 0.216 31.0% 6.0% 18.8% 47.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,600
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.347 0.332 0.265 36.7% 9.7% 37.2% 26.7% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.263 0.264 0.136 31.8% 3.8% 29.3% 51.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 RF $5,500
9 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.332 0.490 0.216 30.4% 4.5% 21.3% 41.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 3B $7,400

Nelson Cruz against a lefty is always an elite option. Jean Segura handles left-handed pitching well, Mitch Haniger is quietly putting up solid power numbers and Ryon Healy has been heating up at the bottom of the order. For you BvP fans, Kyle Seager is also 7-for-18 with two home runs off Skaggs, so he’s a sneaky addition to a Mariners stack as he’ll probably go overlooked in this lefty-on-lefty matchup.

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Kyle Seager (GPP), Jean Segura

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS