MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 22nd

Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Created 1 year ago, Last Updated 1 year ago

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 1:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Atlanta
Jake Arrieta Mike Foltynewicz
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL -140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.347 28.7% 1.36 19.2% 49.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.301 34.6% 1.03 27.2% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.304 26.5% 0.86 19.2% 55.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.276 36.1% 0.57 27.8% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0% 92.1 8.7%
2018 28 4.23 3.66 19.2% 7.9% 52.6% 27.4% 19.4% 93.0 7.6%
L14 2 2.79 5.11 34.6% 7.7% 46.4% 31.0% 20.7% 93.1 12.2%

Jake Arrieta has decent traditional numbers this season, but he hasn’t been all that great for fantasy purposes. His 3.77 ERA and 4.20 SIERA are fine, but his strikeout rate this season has plummeted down to just 19.4%. He has been a little better in terms of racking up the Ks of late, but he’s also been in wobbly form from a run prevention perspective. Arrieta gets a positive park shift going from Philly into Atlanta, but he’ll be facing a Braves lineup with one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season against right-handed pitching. Even on a small early slate, I think there are better options than Arrieta.

Quick Breakdown: All things considered I don’t have much interest in Arrieta.

Mike Foltynewicz
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8% 95.3 9.4%
2018 28 3.70 2.66 27.5% 9.0% 43.6% 35.3% 17.9% 96.5 10.1%
L14 2 3.43 1.20 22.2% 5.6% 56.4% 41.0% 5.1% 96.3 7.7%

If you want a pitcher from this game, you probably want Mike Foltynewicz. Folty’s 3.81 SIERA tells us there’s been some good luck involved in his 2.90 ERA, but a 3.81 SIERA is still something to be proud of. The right-hander has also raised his strikeout rate all the way up to nearly 27% on the year. The walk rate over 9% is a concern, but the matchup against the high-strikeout Phils today is a good one. As a team, the Phillies have the third-highest strikeout rate (24.9%) in the league against right-handed pitching on the year.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is an elite option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The historical approach when it comes to targeting Folty has been to do so with lefties. While he has limited LHBs to a .281 wOBA on the season, he has also allowed 11 homers to left-handed hitters. I wouldn’t be crazy about loading up on Phillies against him, but they could be somewhat contrarian on this slate. Lefties like Justin Bour, Asdrubal Cabrera, Nick Williams, Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana could be worth a look. Rhys Hoskins is always in play from the right side, at least in GPPs. I like the idea of going against the grain with a few Phillies on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.314 0.126 22.9% 13.4% 22.9% 41.6% 2B $2,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.379 0.288 37.4% 11.5% 24.2% 28.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,400
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.354 0.237 42.1% 7.1% 21.4% 38.8% 3B $2,600 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,300
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.372 0.226 40.8% 15.2% 24.3% 41.2% 1B $2,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,200
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.370 0.184 34.4% 17.7% 15.7% 38.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.355 0.169 40.1% 8.6% 19.3% 56.4% C $3,100 C $4,500 C $8,900
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.304 0.181 25.8% 7.5% 19.5% 39.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,500
8 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.148 0.097 33.3% 5.9% 58.8% 22.2% P $8,100 P $7,000 P $13,600
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.257 0.133 22.5% 4.7% 17.2% 59.6% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
Team Averages 0.317 0.182 33.3% 10.2% 24.8% 40.7%

Elite Plays – Justin Bour, Asdrubal Cabrera, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Atlanta

Arrieta has been more hittable this season than in years past, particularly against left-handed hitters. The former Cy Young winner has conceded a .346 wOBA to lefties this season compared to a .283 mark to righties. Starting with the Braves lefties makes sense here, which means Freddie Freeman is the top play on the board. A sprinkling of Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo and Nick Markakis also makes sense. I don’t think the righties need to be ignored in this matchup, either, so feel free to fire up Ronald Acuna. Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers make sense as options from behind the plate, as well. This isn’t an amazing spot for the Atlanta offense, but I’d rather target Arrieta with bats than doing so against Folty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.397 0.282 48.3% 8.1% 25.4% 40.0% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 LF $9,700
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.304 0.140 32.0% 7.1% 12.4% 42.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,600
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.409 0.170 43.5% 11.7% 17.4% 34.3% 1B $4,400 1B $5,000 1B $9,500
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.388 0.153 41.4% 10.6% 9.2% 40.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
5 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.313 0.175 34.7% 10.7% 19.7% 45.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.341 0.169 38.7% 5.1% 8.8% 34.7% C $2,600 C $4,000 C $7,400
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.297 0.188 34.1% 5.4% 17.6% 36.6% 2B $3,700 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.286 0.159 34.9% 7.3% 22.4% 43.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,400
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.058 0.024 13.3% 0.0% 65.9% 63.6% P $9,400 P $9,000 P $18,000
Team Averages 0.310 0.162 35.7% 7.3% 22.1% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, Kurt Suzuki / Tyler Flowers, Johan Camargo

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at St. Louis – 1:05 PM ET

San Francisco St. Louis
Dereck Rodriguez Adam Wainwright
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -165 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.312 41.3% 0.52 19.5% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.344 29.0% 1.26 25.4% 45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.255 0.286 34.3% 0.47 19.1% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.321 22.9% 1.23 14.8% 57.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dereck Rodriguez
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 17 4.41 2.30 19.3% 7.2% 39.6% 37.7% 13.1% 91.5 8.9%
L14 3 4.89 1.47 17.7% 7.6% 32.1% 21.1% 10.5% 90.9 10.5%

Dereck Rodriguez has been one of the few bright spots this season for the Giants. His 2.30 ERA looks lucky considering some of the underlying numbers, but he’s allowed more than two earned runs in just one start since the beginning of July. His 4.42 SIERA is far more pedestrian, though, and his 19.3% strikeout rate is nothing special. He has also allowed a hard contact rate of nearly 38%, but he’s been taken deep only 6 times across 19 appearances. Regression will come for Rodriguez, it’s just a matter of when. Given his elevated price point and a difficult matchup today in St. Louis against the Cardinals, I see Rodriguez as an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez, who has to regress at some point.

Adam Wainwright
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 23 4.70 5.11 17.6% 8.2% 47.2% 30.8% 19.5% 89.7 7.4%
2018 6 4.86 3.72 20.5% 12.9% 52.4% 25.6% 23.3% 89.0 7.3%
L14 2 3.37 3.27 27.3% 6.8% 48.3% 37.9% 13.8% 90.0 10.4%

Adam Wainwright was wobbly in his first start off the DL, but he looked great last time out. Waino held the Dodgers scoreless on just two hits in 6 innings of work last Sunday. He also threw 101 pitches, so it’s safe to say he’s fully stretched out already. Wainwright may not be the ace he once was, but he gets a glorious matchup this afternoon against a heavily watered-down version of the Giants. Andrew McCutchen is gone, while Buster Posey and Brandon Belt have already undergone season-ending surgeries. Wainwright’s 20.5% K-rate on the season isn’t much to get excited about, but he’s super cheap and he’s in a great spot from a run prevention perspective.

Quick Breakdown: Wainwright is an elite play against whatever’s left of the Giants.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Deploying left-handed hitters against Wainwright has been a solid strategy over the last few seasons. The veteran allowed a wOBA north of .350 to lefties last season, and he’s right around there in a limited sample so far in 2018. The San Francisco offense is so bad that there’s no reason to load up here, but a cheap Gregor Blanco or Joe Panik could make sense in order to make things work in your lineups. Otherwise, you can fade this team.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.279 0.121 29.2% 6.3% 26.1% 37.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 LF $5,900
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.362 0.100 31.2% 7.0% 8.6% 44.1% 2B $2,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.313 0.150 41.3% 4.2% 22.8% 40.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.307 0.116 35.8% 9.0% 21.1% 45.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.321 0.124 39.2% 7.6% 30.4% 38.1% C $2,800 C $3,100 C $5,700
6 Chris Shaw LEFT 0.194 0.120 21.4% 7.1% 42.9% 42.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
7 Aramis Garcia RIGHT 0.330 0.429 50.0% 0.0% 42.9% 37.5% C $2,500 1B/C $3,200 C $6,600
8 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.269 0.071 38.4% 10.2% 31.5% 63.9% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,300 LF $6,300
9 Dereck Rodriguez RIGHT 0.086 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 45.5% 75.0% P $8,300 P $8,100 P $15,900
Team Averages 0.273 0.137 33.7% 5.7% 30.2% 47.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Gregor Blanco

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

Dereck Rodriguez has gotten good results this season, but I still think he’s a pitcher we can play a few bats against. He has yielded a .291 wOBA to lefties so far this year, so Matt Carpenter stands out as an elite option, as usual. Kolten Wong is also fine, as he’s one of the few left-handed Cardinals. Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina and Harrison Bader all look like solid secondary plays despite lacking the platoon edge against D-Rod. St. Louis makes for a viable stack, though I wouldn’t really be looking their way in all-day formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.425 0.283 48.6% 15.3% 23.1% 21.7% 1B $3,800 1B/3B $4,900 3B $8,700
2 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.384 0.158 39.7% 7.7% 18.2% 47.9% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.355 0.192 39.3% 6.4% 24.1% 33.8% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,300
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.357 0.140 44.8% 5.2% 17.8% 48.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
5 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.308 0.139 34.1% 10.0% 20.4% 35.2% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,900 3B $7,800
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.351 0.161 44.6% 6.0% 12.9% 40.8% C $2,900 C $4,100 C $8,300
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.309 0.149 28.0% 7.5% 15.3% 45.6% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.272 0.127 34.6% 6.8% 31.9% 43.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.025 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 33.3% P $7,200 P $6,200 P $12,000
Team Averages 0.310 0.150 34.9% 7.2% 24.5% 38.9%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina, Harrison Bader, Jose Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
David Hess Lance Lynn
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -300 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.357 33.5% 2.37 14.9% 39.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.353 36.7% 0.93 16.1% 52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.344 29.5% 1.29 17.3% 30.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.293 34.9% 0.80 28.2% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Hess
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 17 5.03 5.22 16.0% 7.6% 35.1% 31.7% 18.5% 92.0 8.3%
L14 2 3.68 4.82 21.7% 2.2% 40.6% 45.5% 6.1% 92.9 10.5%

David Hess has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, and this afternoon he has the misfortune of taking the mound in New York against the Yankees. The right-hander has a low 16% K-rate and his 5.04 SIERA isn’t helping the cause of his 5.22 ERA. Hess has also allowed 19 home runs in his 19 big league appearances. There’s no need to waste more time here. Just fade Hess completely.

Quick Breakdown: Hess is the easiest fade on the board.

Lance Lynn
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.85 3.43 19.7% 10.1% 44.0% 29.2% 21.1% 91.8 9.0%
2018 28 4.28 4.90 23.0% 11.0% 49.5% 35.7% 20.5% 93.1 10.2%
L14 2 3.39 2.45 22.5% 2.5% 46.7% 26.7% 33.3% 93.0 10.9%

Lance Lynn has looked better of late after a terrible 4-start stretch late last month. The veteran righty carries a respectable 23% strikeout rate into today’s outing against the Orioles, but his Achilles heel has always been walks. Lynn has a hefty walk rate of 11% on the year, which tends to get him into all sorts of trouble. Lynn has also historically struggled with lefties, but the Baltimore lineup on the other side today doesn’t have much in terms of threatening LHBs. The price is also fair, so Lynn has a decent amount of upside today.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

As mentioned, Lynn has had a harder time getting lefties out. LHBs have a wOBA of .361 against him so far this season, and the O’s get a bit of a park upgrade today going into the Bronx. I’m lukewarm on the O’s offense in general, but you can take shots in GPPs with guys like Cedric Mullins, Jonathan Villar or Chris Davis. Adam Jones or Trey Mancini are fine if you must have a righty here, but neither is a priority by any means.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.299 0.198 27.9% 7.9% 12.9% 54.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.291 0.120 29.9% 7.8% 26.0% 57.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 2B $8,500
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.329 0.156 32.7% 4.7% 17.4% 43.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
4 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.377 0.195 37.9% 7.3% 24.0% 48.2% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.294 0.128 35.7% 8.2% 36.1% 39.1% 1B $2,100 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,400
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.301 0.120 32.1% 5.2% 25.3% 46.2% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,000 SS $5,900
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.302 0.156 28.3% 7.4% 24.2% 41.8% 3B $2,400 3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,500
8 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.100 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.270 0.127 27.6% 3.4% 25.3% 43.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.285 0.133 29.1% 5.8% 23.1% 47.0%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Cedric Mullins

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw David Hess today, and I think it’s fair to say that David Hess is a bad pitcher. Hess has allowed a .358 wOBA to righties and a .350 wOBA to lefties on the year, so I’d say you can attack him with hitters of either handedness. The Yankees are also back to full strength, so the stack looks a little mightier than it did about a month ago. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Andrew McCutchen are your elite options. Luke Voit is also on a heater if you want to see if he can keep that going. Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Neil Walker, Gleyber Torres are also in play. Basically, if a Yankee is in the starting lineup today, you can play him. They’re the top offense of the day.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.363 0.156 44.4% 14.4% 21.9% 40.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,600
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.396 0.261 48.0% 12.4% 31.1% 45.8% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.258 37.9% 9.2% 11.8% 36.4% SS $3,900 SS $5,300 SS $9,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.206 38.1% 9.0% 31.9% 45.8% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,500
5 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.379 0.183 37.1% 17.0% 19.3% 42.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
6 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.443 0.317 42.9% 14.9% 27.0% 41.9% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,000
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.356 0.223 37.2% 3.5% 16.5% 47.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,600 3B $8,900
8 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.341 0.213 36.3% 10.4% 25.1% 46.3% C $3,200 C $4,400 C $8,500
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.354 0.173 35.4% 8.5% 23.8% 34.1% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
Team Averages 0.367 0.221 39.7% 11.0% 23.2% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez, Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Luke Voit, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
Corey Oswalt Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.353 29.9% 1.42 11.9% 39.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.325 27.0% 1.26 21.1% 36.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.347 36.6% 2.67 17.8% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.336 30.2% 1.14 17.4% 44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Oswalt
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 10 4.71 6.31 15.2% 6.2% 44.3% 33.5% 19.7% 90.3 7.2%
L14 2 4.60 11.12 20.0% 8.6% 34.8% 37.5% 25.0% 90.1 7.4%

Corey Oswalt has been starting games of late, but he hasn’t pitched all that deep. Oswalt’s 61 pitches were the most he’s thrown since throwing 96 in mid-August, so it seems as though the Mets are wanting to limit him at this point. Even if he were to throw a full complement of pitches, Oswalt gets a park downgrade today going into D.C. and the Nats offense on the other side is still pretty good. No reason to consider him, even on a small slate.

Quick Breakdown: Oswalt probably won’t pitch all that deep, so he’s an easy fade.

Tanner Roark
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,700
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7% 92.2 10.1%
2018 30 4.38 4.34 19.2% 6.6% 40.7% 28.7% 20.0% 91.5 8.4%
L14 3 4.83 7.80 13.0% 2.9% 36.2% 32.8% 29.3% 92.3 5.4%

Tanner Roark was initially supposed to start this game, but the Nationals will put Austin Voth on the mound instead. Voth showed middling strikeout stuff at the upper levels of the minors, and we’ve only seen him pitch twice in the big leagues. One of those appearances was a start against these Mets earlier in the year in which he gave up 7 runs on 9 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. While the early slate isn’t all that deep from a pitching perspective, I still think you’re getting too cute if you consider Voth, despite the cheap price tag.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Voth today against the Mets.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have looked improved offensively as they’ve gotten healthier later in the season. Austin Voth appears to be nothing special, and the Mets get a nice little park upgrade today going into Nationals Park. The lefties stand out here against the right-hander, which puts Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo on my radar. I don’t think the righties need to be avoided, either, so Amed Rosario, Todd Frazier and whichever catcher (Kevin Plawecki or Devin Mesoraco) starts are viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.138 28.0% 4.8% 18.9% 49.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.318 0.157 29.5% 4.1% 9.6% 39.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,600
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.345 0.180 36.5% 14.8% 22.2% 40.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.161 35.1% 11.9% 18.7% 29.8% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,900 RF $7,300
5 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.379 0.258 36.6% 14.9% 23.2% 40.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 LF $9,000
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.278 0.235 39.1% 2.0% 33.7% 28.1% 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.221 43.7% 9.2% 20.7% 34.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.315 0.167 36.4% 9.9% 22.4% 49.2% C $2,000 C $3,200 C $6,700
9 Corey Oswalt RIGHT 0.065 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 53.8% 80.0% P $5,500 P $6,600 P $12,800
Team Averages 0.301 0.169 31.7% 8.0% 24.8% 43.5%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Jay Bruce, Jeff McNeil

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier, Amed Rosario, Kevin Plawecki / Devin Mesoraco

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals were eliminated from NL East contention last night, so we’ll see what kind of lineup they roll out there today. Corey Oswalt isn’t a pitcher worth fearing, so if some of the better Nats crack the lineup today I’ll have interest. Bryce Harper and Juan Soto are the top options, while Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon are also in play. Matt Wieters has some pop from the catcher position, as well. Victor Robles makes for an elite option, especially if he’s hitting leadoff once again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Victor Robles RIGHT 0.286 0.000 37.5% 7.7% 23.1% 25.0% OF $2,300 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.316 0.136 30.3% 8.2% 20.1% 52.6% SS $3,800 SS $4,800 IF/OF $8,700
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.395 0.266 42.2% 18.7% 24.5% 38.2% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,400
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.386 0.195 36.1% 8.3% 13.1% 35.6% 3B $4,200 3B $4,900 3B $8,700
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.393 0.225 35.4% 18.6% 19.8% 50.0% OF $4,000 OF $5,200 LF $9,900
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.379 0.212 37.6% 7.1% 17.1% 51.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.309 0.128 33.3% 7.3% 14.6% 37.7% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,800
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.296 0.144 21.8% 8.3% 16.9% 41.6% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,400
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.179 0.077 14.3% 2.3% 30.2% 80.8% P $7,400 P $7,700 P $15,700
Team Averages 0.327 0.154 32.1% 9.6% 19.9% 45.8%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Victor Robles

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
Tyler Glasnow Thomas Pannone
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.294 26.3% 0.78 26.9% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.318 12.5% 0.00 29.6% 26.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.344 39.5% 1.51 31.3% 44.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.296 25.3% 1.78 13.0% 30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Glasnow
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 5.62 7.69 18.4% 14.4% 43.2% 31.5% 20.2% 94.6 8.3%
2018 8 3.59 4.48 29.1% 11.7% 49.6% 32.8% 12.5% 96.6 11.2%
L14 2 4.80 10.57 13.5% 5.4% 46.7% 50.0% 6.7% 96.3 5.4%

Tyler Glasnow has been excellent for the most part since joining the Rays. The lone hiccup to this point happens to have been a start against these very Blue Jays in which he was pummeled for 7 runs in just 0.2 innings of work. Since joining Tampa on August 1, Glasnow has an excellent strikeout rate of 28% alongside an 8% walk rate. The hard contact rate of 40.9% is a bit too high, but his 3.55 SIERA is legit. My primary hangup with him today is his price tag. Glasnow is priced up at this point, and he gets a pretty substantial park downgrade today going into Toronto. The Jays still have a capable offense, so I don’t really see the need to pay all the way up here. He’s a good play, but not a must.

Quick Breakdown: Glasnow is a fine option, but he’s a little too expensive in my eyes.

Thomas Pannone
FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 4 5.11 3.77 16.5% 7.1% 30.1% 23.2% 28.4% 88.4 10.3%
L14 2 5.46 2.51 15.8% 8.8% 33.3% 19.1% 40.5% 88.2 10.9%

Thomas Pannone has been mediocre in limited duty with the Jays this season. The left-hander has a strikeout rate of just 16.5%, and his 5.12 SIERA tells a different story than his 3.77 ERA. His soft contact rate is impressively 5 percentage points higher than his hard-hit rate, but his extreme fly ball tendency will naturally lead to some home runs. Pannone is fairly priced, but the Rays offense he’ll be facing today is pretty underrated. Given his lack of strikeout upside, I’m not all that interested today.

Quick Breakdown: Pannone looks like an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Pannone has shown some reverse batted ball splits early in his career, but the sample is so small that I’m not going all-in on it. All 5 homers he’s conceded have come off the bats of right-handers, so I’d start with the Rays RHBs in this spot. C.J. Cron, Tommy Pham, Matt Duffy and Carlos Gomez look like the best options. Willy Adames is also fine if you want a guy nobody else is going to play. The lefties aren’t necessarily off-limits, so Mallex Smith is worth fringe consideration. This is a potentially sneaky spot for the Rays, so I like the mini-stack of righties here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.296 0.079 24.6% 7.0% 20.9% 57.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.455 0.141 52.7% 15.0% 20.8% 50.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.322 0.057 31.6% 10.8% 18.0% 58.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.359 0.235 42.9% 6.8% 28.6% 40.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $9,300
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.266 0.119 34.6% 7.9% 23.7% 42.3% 3B $3,000 2B $4,600 2B $8,900
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.317 0.131 29.1% 4.1% 22.8% 28.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
7 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.294 0.162 38.0% 13.8% 28.7% 49.0% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.266 0.106 41.0% 6.9% 38.9% 51.3% SS $3,200 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.240 0.023 35.9% 6.3% 12.5% 42.1% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.313 0.117 36.7% 8.7% 23.9% 46.6%

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Matt Duffy, Carlos Gomez, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Willy Adames, Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Tyler Glasnow has made the adjustment to pitch exclusively out of the stretch since joining the Rays, so his season-long numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The right-hander has essentially been neutral from a splits perspective in his career. He’s a prospect with some pedigree, so now that he’s getting positive results I’m not that crazy about playing a bunch of bats against him. I still think you can look to some of the more potent hitters like Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel in GPPs, but none of them are core options on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.364 0.194 32.1% 8.6% 24.7% 41.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,400
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.327 0.146 32.5% 3.6% 24.0% 39.5% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,200
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.400 0.259 40.2% 15.7% 26.9% 33.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.348 0.273 37.4% 5.8% 25.0% 34.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Rowdy Tellez LEFT 0.419 0.455 47.4% 0.0% 13.6% 36.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.348 0.169 34.4% 3.8% 18.9% 34.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,300
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.349 0.186 33.2% 3.8% 12.8% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.268 0.160 17.1% 10.2% 16.9% 36.6% C $2,400 C $3,600 C $7,700
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.272 0.071 50.0% 6.6% 31.1% 35.1% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,000 SS $5,800
Team Averages 0.344 0.213 36.0% 6.5% 21.5% 37.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Lourdes Gurriel, Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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