MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 29th

Jump to Page 1 2 3


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Detroit at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Detroit Baltimore
detroitmlb Daniel Norris baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.340 35.2% 9.3% 19.4% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.344 29.8% 11.3% 20.9% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.352 42.7% 10.0% 19.7% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.346 34.5% 6.0% 22.4% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.94 5.31 18.7% 9.6% 38.8% 41.7% 16.3%
2018 1 3.71 4.85 26.7% 11.7% 47.2% 32.4% 13.5%

Daniel Norris gets the nod for the Tigers today. The southpaw has been pretty good this season in terms of striking people out, but it’s a very small sample size.

2018 (13 IP)
LH .257 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 20.0% K 5.0% BB
RH .339 wOBA 1.08 HR/9 30.0% K 15.0% BB
2017
LH .387 wOBA 2.22 HR/9 19.3% K 10.1% BB
RH .347 wOBA .70 HR/9 18.5% K 9.4% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Orioles have a run total approaching five – one of the higher of the day. I’m not interested in a pitcher that had those kind of numbers last season regardless of the high K rate he’s shown thus far this season especially with a projected O’s lineup that will include eight RH bats.

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 5 4.00 4.66 20.8% 5.6% 37.8% 34.1% 18.7%

Many, myself included, thought Kevin Gausman had made the jump to being a good pitcher during the second half of last season. But he’s looked more like the pitcher he was the first half, then what he did at the end of the year.

2018 (29 IP)
LH .361 wOBA 1.93 HR/9 17.0% K 8.5% BB
RH .338 wOBA 2.40 HR/9 24.2% K 3.0% BB
2017
LH .350 wOBA 1.41 HR/9 21.6% K 11.8% BB
RH .344 wOBA 1.39 HR/9 22.2% K 6.4% BB

Quick Breakdown:

There will be a time this season where Gausman starts to warm up and we want to use him. Detroit is a very swingy offense, capable of putting up a big game or getting completely shut down. They typically, however, do not strike out a lot with only one batter in their projected lineup having a K rate topping 25%. Given Gausman’s ineffective start to the season, I’d take a wait and see approach with him and make him prove he has turned the corner again before utilizing him. The one positive thing going for him today is Detroit is projected to have 6 RH bats in the starting lineup and Gausman does have decent strikeout upside against that side of the plate. If I was building 20 lineups, I might take a shot on him in one. No more than that though.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.282 0.322 0.145 27.1% 7.0% 23.1% 35.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.372 0.346 0.210 32.4% 9.2% 18.9% 43.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.304 0.379 0.150 42.4% 9.3% 19.8% 43.5% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.331 0.376 0.187 43.6% 6.3% 22.4% 35.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,600
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.312 0.375 0.133 43.1% 8.6% 13.9% 36.9% C $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,500
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.276 0.307 0.117 36.4% 5.7% 24.1% 38.8% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,300
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.268 0.293 0.121 37.2% 5.8% 36.4% 48.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.278 0.263 0.115 27.3% 3.9% 15.1% 52.1% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.298 0.307 0.106 36.1% 6.2% 17.4% 52.7% 2B $2,900 2B $2,900 SS $5,500

Gausman has struggled with the long ball over the past two seasons – to both sides of the plate – so we’ll want to attack him with some power bats from the Detroit side. There’s not a lot of power to be had, however, so the options are limited. I’d go with the three in the middle of the order – Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Cabrera and that would be the limit of my interest in them. The rest of the team has woeful numbers against RHP.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.327 0.324 0.135 32.6% 4.6% 24.5% 52.9% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,700
2 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.300 0.298 0.147 30.2% 8.4% 27.7% 48.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 LF $4,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.366 0.398 0.274 45.4% 6.7% 14.9% 37.3% SS $4,600 SS $5,200 3B $9,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.321 0.335 0.141 32.6% 6.5% 18.3% 44.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.346 0.368 0.205 38.3% 14.3% 20.0% 45.2% 3B $2,500 3B $2,900 1B $5,900
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.267 0.307 0.124 33.7% 9.8% 41.8% 34.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,100 IF/OF $5,900
7 Luis Sardinas SWITCH 0.240 0.288 0.000 35.0% 11.1% 14.8% 55.0% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,600 SS $5,100
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.302 0.348 0.198 36.8% 4.7% 27.9% 38.6% C $2,100 C $2,300 C $4,900
9 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.176 0.165 0.043 27.3% 8.0% 48.0% 54.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,700

Norris allowed a .347+ wOBA to both sides of the plate last season including a 2+ HR/9 to LH bats – not a good thing if you are a LHP. He hasn’t allowed a HR to a LH bat yet this season, but it’s still early enough that we can’t say that he’s fixed his tendencies there. Fortunately we don’t really have to try and figure out if we want to use a LH bat from the Orioles as they only have one in their projected lineup. It’s Chris Davis, who is generally brutal against LHP, but he does have a homer off of Norris so he might be a good differentiator in your stack. Manny Machado and Danny Valencia are the top targets from this lineup, with Machado a top play coming in with a .274 ISO against LHP. He’s expensive across the industry though, but probably worth it today. Fortunately if you’re going to stack the O’s, the rest of the lineup is very affordable – especially Valencia.

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW


Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
tampabaymlb Matt Andriese bostonmlb Rick Porcello
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.268 0.295 41.2% 7.6% 21.6% 48.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.341 39.5% 6.2% 21.4% 33.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.388 0.369 40.5% 6.6% 20.9% 43.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.312 34.1% 4.1% 20.7% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese
matt-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.42 4.50 20.3% 7.5% 44.9% 38.7% 19.2%
2018 0 2.59 5.40 27.3% 3.6% 47.4% 55.3% 13.2%

Matt Andriese gets the start for Tampa today and he’s had surprising strikeout numbers thus far in 2018. That wOBA against RHBs though… not so good.

2018 (13.1 IP)
LH .245 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 20.8% K 4.2% BB
RH .383 wOBA 1.29 HR/9 32.3% K 3.2% BB
2017
LH .271 wOBA 0.91 HR/9 21.7% K 8.1% BB
RH .389 wOBA 2.33 HR/9 19.3% K 7.0% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The 32.3% wOBA vs RHBs is intriguing. However, only one RHB in the powerful Red Sox lineup (J.D. Martinez) has a K rate topping 20.1% so any upside is limited. He’s cheap, but not in Fenway against this team.

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $10,300 Salary: $19,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.28 4.65 20.5% 5.4% 39.2% 38.3% 17.1%
2018 5 3.06 1.93 25.0% 3.1% 51.7% 24.4% 21.1%

Rick Porcello won the Cy Young in 2016. He came back with a terrible 2017. He looks more like the 2016 version (you could argue even better) thus far this season. He has reduced amount he’s thrown fastball and curve by nearly 20% while increasing his other three pitches significantly including a 10%+ increase in sliders.

2018 (32.2 IP)
LH .195 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 27.3% K 1.8% BB
RH .217 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 23.3% K 4.1% BB
2017
LH .360 wOBA 1.97 HR/9 20.6% K 6.8% BB
RH .336 wOBA 1.43 HR/9 20.3% K 4.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The sites have been quick to adjust Porcello’s price as he’s the 4th highest priced SP on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I like the matchup for Porcello against a weak Tampa offense, but even with the great start he just doesn’t have the K upside that other SPs around his price tag do. He’s obviously worth being in your player pool if you are multi-entering GPPs and is a safe cash game option that will allow you to get in more bats then the much more expensive (on DK) Gerrit Cole and Jose Berrios would allow. If your lineup needs that extra $1500+, then he’s a good option to utilize.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.344 0.341 0.180 27.8% 7.9% 12.4% 41.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.338 0.344 0.208 41.3% 7.7% 29.7% 37.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
3 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.305 0.332 0.165 35.1% 5.3% 24.9% 34.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,300
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.293 0.325 0.130 36.7% 16.7% 26.7% 47.7% 1B $2,700 1B $3,000 2B $6,000
5 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.109 31.3% 11.7% 26.6% 50.0% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,300
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.363 0.281 0.197 37.5% 8.7% 20.3% 60.4% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.314 0.268 0.091 21.4% 9.5% 18.7% 48.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
8 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.300 0.330 0.184 33.3% 5.4% 17.2% 53.2% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,300
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.295 0.300 0.131 36.8% 3.8% 18.8% 49.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,600

I’m a believer in what Porcello has done thus far this season – mainly because he’s altered his approach and is utilizing his best pitches more often. It’s made a difference. The Rays offense doesn’t have anyone who absolutely crushes RHP and considering how effective Porcello has been at not giving up power (0 HRs allowed this season) or walking batters (3.1% BB rate), I have no interest in any bat.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.351 0.366 0.216 38.5% 9.9% 11.9% 38.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,700 RF $11,200
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.345 0.345 0.178 35.0% 10.5% 16.2% 38.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 LF $9,400
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.336 0.367 0.184 35.6% 8.0% 20.1% 41.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,900
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.400 0.421 0.340 50.2% 9.3% 27.3% 42.1% OF $4,200 OF $5,100 RF $10,100
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.330 0.295 0.150 32.1% 8.1% 18.9% 47.0% SS $3,300 SS $4,000 SS $7,400
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.337 0.392 0.220 39.7% 9.6% 19.8% 41.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.351 0.269 0.159 25.3% 3.4% 11.8% 52.2% SS $3,000 2B/SS $3,800 3B $7,500
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.317 0.300 0.190 36.2% 6.9% 22.2% 47.0% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.306 0.293 0.094 25.8% 5.2% 18.6% 47.1% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,800

Matt Andriese has been a reverse splits pitcher over the past two seasons as he’s been good against LH bats (under .270 wOBA allowed and under .90 HR/9) and absolutely terrible against RH bats (.380+ wOBA allowed with a 2.00+ HR/9 allowed). While he has shown improved K upside against RH bats this season and has decent control, he’s a pitcher we’re going to want to attack from the RH side of the plate.

That, of course, starts with Mookie Betts leading off and J.D. Martinez batting cleanup. Betts is the table setter with a .351 wOBA and .216 ISO against RHP and Martinez cleans things up with his massive .340 ISO. Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts are also viable options in the top five of the Red Sox lineup and I wouldn’t even mind a flyer on Eduardo Nunez despite him being projected to hit 7th. With no line out for this game, the Red Sox stack could be overlooked somewhat which makes it one of my favorite stacks of the day.

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN


Texas at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Texas Toronto
texasmlb Martin Perez torontomlb J.A. Happ
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-210 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.295 28.6% 4.9% 20.7% 57.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.223 0.251 21.1% 3.4% 23.0% 55.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.376 0.385 36.3% 8.5% 12.1% 45.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.310 28.8% 8.0% 24.8% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,700
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 5.04 4.82 14.2% 7.8% 47.3% 33.3% 15.2%
2018 4 5.32 9.82 11.0% 8.0% 47.4% 46.8% 15.2%

Just when you think good Martin Perez is gone forever, he goes out and has a good game. Despite that his 2018 numbers are impressive (and not in a good way).

2018 (18.1 IP)
LH .364 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 12.5% BB 4.2% K
RH .494 wOBA 2.70 HR/9 10.5% BB 9.2% K
2017
LH .293 wOBA 0.48 HR/9 21.9% BB 5.0% K
RH .362 wOBA 1.28 HR/9 12.3% BB 8.5% K

Quick Breakdown:

Against a Blue Jays projected lineup that will have NINE RH bats? Yea, I wouldn’t play Perez if he was $2K on both sites.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,500
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 5 2.59 3.72 33.6% 5.7% 46.5% 29.6% 18.3%

J.A. Happ has been a strikeout machine thus far this season with a K rate well over 30%. He’s been getting the ball up in the zone more and been doing it effectively as his swinging strike rate is over 14%, a number that is well above his career average.

2018 (29 IP)
LH .173 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 36.7% K 0.0% BB
RH .337 wOBA 2.18 HR/9 32.6% K 7.6% BB
2017
LH .236 wOBA 0.89 HR/9 19.5% K 4.2% BB
RH .317 wOBA 1.17 HR/9 23.4% K 8.1% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The first bit of good news is the Rangers have four LH bats in their projected starting lineup. Happ is absolutely dominant against that side of the plate. The other good news is of the five RH bats projected in the starting lineup, four of them have K rates topping 24%. Add in a very affordable price tag and his team being one of the largest favorites of the day and Happ is my favorite SP option of the day. He’ll likely be high owned though so there is merit to being underweight on him in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.325 0.265 0.153 23.3% 11.0% 29.0% 35.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 CF $5,700
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.334 0.347 0.080 26.1% 11.4% 18.3% 59.8% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
3 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.372 0.340 0.133 38.5% 21.1% 10.5% 23.1% SS $2,900 2B/SS $2,700 3B $5,600
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.292 0.277 0.102 27.3% 5.7% 23.3% 59.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,300
5 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.423 0.255 0.333 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,500
6 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.401 0.357 0.244 41.3% 12.1% 24.2% 33.3% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,400
7 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.298 0.311 0.111 47.1% 8.8% 27.5% 48.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,200 IF/OF $3,900
8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.286 0.220 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $2,500 3B $4,700
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.395 0.348 0.185 25.0% 10.0% 36.7% 43.8% SS $2,000 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,800

We can immediately scratch off any LH bats against Happ and only want extreme power from the RH side of the plate – an area Happ has been vulnerable. Unfortunately, the Rangers lack a lot of pop from that side of the plate. Robinson Chirinos is the exception though and playing at a always thin position he’s an elite play with his .401 wOBA and .244 ISO against LHP.

Elite Plays – Robinson Chirinos

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.347 0.357 0.246 35.6% 7.5% 21.8% 40.0% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,200 1B $6,500
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.238 0.335 0.186 40.0% 2.2% 42.2% 28.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.397 0.388 0.195 34.9% 11.9% 14.7% 40.3% 1B $3,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.267 0.323 0.109 28.4% 9.1% 9.7% 46.1% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 2B $7,700
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.409 0.371 0.232 42.7% 6.5% 22.1% 55.5% 1B $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.364 0.334 0.201 31.5% 5.5% 14.8% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.273 0.331 0.108 32.7% 16.1% 28.0% 39.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.377 0.423 0.244 30.3% 8.9% 17.8% 42.4% 2B $2,400 2B $2,800 2B $5,800
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.230 0.251 0.039 21.9% 8.3% 15.5% 42.9% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $5,600

Toronto against a bad LHP. Sign me up. Steve Pearce leading off is a great value and comes in with a .246 ISO against LHP. Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Kevin Pillar all have ISO’s topping .195 and make for a great stack along with Pearce. Devon Travis is sneaky in the 8th spot given his .244 ISO against LHP and I don’t mind using him as a one off or to make a different kind of Toronto stack. Obviously this is one of the top stacks of the day – it’s just a shame that Josh Donaldson isn’t healthy and in the lineup.

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN


Colorado at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Colorado Miami
coloradomlb Chad Bettis miamimlb Caleb Smith
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-110 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.322 33.0% 7.6% 19.1% 48.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.341 28.1% 11.1% 29.6% 34.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.344 30.2% 6.8% 12.4% 46.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.379 37.7% 14.6% 26.2% 23.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Bettis
chad-bettis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 4.74 5.05 15.0% 5.5% 48.4% 28.5% 18.4%
2018 5 4.92 2.40 16.8% 10.1% 45.8% 37.2% 17.4%

After a terrible 2017, Chad Bettis has been somewhat improved this season although he is still struggling with control.

2018 (30 IP)
LH .275 wOBA 0.55 HR/9 18.8% K 10.9% BB
RH .317 wOBA 1.32 HR/9 14.6% K 9.1% BB
2017
LH .333 wOBA 1.57 HR/9 19.4% K 5.4% BB
RH .363 wOBA 1.54 HR/9 11.2% K 5.6% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I wish Bettis had more strikeout upside as the price tag on FanDuel is very appealing facing this awful Marlins offense. I wouldn’t touch him at $8K on DraftKings (8th highest priced SP). Given the lack of upside though, I have no interest.

Caleb Smith
caleb-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.86 7.71 20.9% 11.6% 27.6% 32.8% 19.0%
2018 5 4.00 5.82 32.7% 15.3% 25.5% 37.3% 13.7%

Caleb Smith does one of three things. He either walks you, gives up a home run, or strikes you out. One of those things is good for DFS. The other two are not.

2018 (21.2 IP)
LH .308 wOBA 1.59 HR/9 40.0% K 12.0% BB
RH .341 wOBA 1.69 HR/9 30.1% K 16.4% BB
2017 (18.2 IP)
LH .381 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 20.7% K 10.3% BB
RH .347 wOBA 2.77 HR/9 21.1% K 12.3% BB

Quick Breakdown:

That 32.7% K rate seemed a bit fishy to me after being just at 21% last season but Smith did strike out a batter per inning in AAA last season so it’s not completely out of line. The Rockies have a modest run total of around 4 and Smith is under $6K on both sites. The K upside makes him at least worthwhile as a value option or as a SP2 on two pitcher sites. It’s not for the faint of heart though as that 15.3% walk rate is laughably bad as is that HR/9 rate. For every Smith lineup you make, I’d probably make at least one other lineup with a Rockies stack. Hedging is fun you know.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.418 0.411 0.212 37.2% 10.6% 9.7% 54.4% 2B $3,600 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.409 0.364 0.234 34.2% 7.1% 16.8% 49.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,400 CF $10,900
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.539 0.464 0.408 39.2% 10.9% 10.4% 24.7% 3B $4,300 3B $5,300 3B $9,900
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.430 0.353 0.357 49.0% 12.0% 34.6% 28.4% SS $3,800 SS $4,500 SS $8,900
5 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.392 0.342 0.231 32.1% 14.2% 21.3% 46.9% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,400
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.319 0.274 0.160 27.8% 6.5% 21.7% 66.0% 1B $2,700 1B/OF $3,800 LF $7,300
7 David Dahl LEFT 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 71.4% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 LF $7,200
8 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.353 0.312 0.098 26.2% 4.5% 17.2% 47.5% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 LF $5,900
9 Chad Bettis RIGHT 0.000 0.075 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 100.0% P $6,600 P $8,000 P $14,900

When you have a pitcher like Caleb Smith who walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of long balls, you have to have interest even if the team is projected as one of the lower scoring teams of the day. The top five of the Rockies projected lineup all have great numbers against LHP with Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story the two best of the group.

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.304 0.316 0.165 34.3% 7.0% 21.0% 37.8% OF $2,600 OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,500
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.341 0.180 34.2% 5.3% 18.5% 48.6% C $3,200 C $4,100 C $8,400
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.317 0.298 0.135 30.2% 3.9% 20.2% 53.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.379 0.402 0.248 39.7% 11.4% 19.7% 41.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.311 0.294 0.084 26.4% 13.3% 23.1% 58.6% 3B $2,900 3B $2,900 3B $5,400
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.303 0.293 0.151 25.3% 13.4% 22.8% 56.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
7 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.190 0.251 0.101 30.0% 7.0% 39.0% 60.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.316 0.307 0.081 23.1% 7.6% 11.2% 52.8% SS $2,100 SS $2,300 2B $4,900
9 Caleb Smith LEFT 0.000 0.037 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $5,900 P $5,500 P $10,800

The Marlins lineup is just bad. That said, I don’t mind using J.T. Realmuto at a thin catcher position (only on FanDuel) or Justin Bour as one off’s. Both have home run upside against a homer vulnerable pitcher in Bettis.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (FanDuel only), Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE


Seattle at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Seattle Cleveland
seattlemlb Marco Gonzales clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.380 0.305 22.7% 5.1% 18.6% 52.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.379 0.373 41.0% 3.2% 16.8% 38.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.369 0.364 35.0% 5.4% 21.4% 44.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.363 34.4% 2.5% 18.6% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Gonzales
marco-gonzales-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.48 6.08 17.3% 6.0% 45.4% 29.1% 23.4%
2018 5 2.80 4.37 27.6% 4.1% 47.0% 39.4% 18.2%

Marco Gonzales has not been good in his short major league career. And by not good, I mean terrible.

2018 (22.2 IP)
LH .448 wOBA 3.00 HR/9 0.0% K 0.0% BB
RH .330 wOBA 0.46 HR/9 31.8% K 4.7% BB
2017 (40 IP)
LH .360 wOBA 1.86 HR/9 23.9% K 6.5% BB
RH .402 wOBA 1.78 HR/9 15.1% K 5.8% BB

Quick Breakdown:

200w

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.17 4.98 18.6% 2.4% 39.6% 36.2% 14.0%
2018 3 5.80 9.24 10.6% 6.1% 25.9% 46.3% 18.5%

As bad as Gonzales has been, Tomlin has perhaps been worse thus far in 2018. He might not walk many batters but who cares if you are jacking it out of the ballpark.

2018 (12.2 IP)
LH .633 wOBA 9.0 HR/9 12.1% K 9.1% BB
RH .393 wOBA 3.52 HR/9 9.1% K 3.0% BB
2017
LH .346 wOBA 1.37 HR/9 17.5% K 2.4% BB
RH .335 wOBA 1.54 HR/9 19.5% K 2.4% BB

Quick Breakdown:

200w

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.321 0.270 0.075 17.2% 4.4% 14.7% 53.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 2B $7,400
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.327 0.296 0.132 25.0% 4.6% 15.0% 55.4% SS $3,800 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.374 0.396 0.192 39.7% 9.1% 12.1% 48.3% 2B $3,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.389 0.392 0.278 39.8% 6.8% 21.7% 40.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.321 0.364 0.204 37.4% 9.4% 16.4% 30.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,400 3B $6,900
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.382 0.350 0.237 37.8% 8.5% 23.8% 39.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.354 0.331 0.257 40.1% 8.0% 37.2% 33.5% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,700
8 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.313 0.301 0.138 28.1% 7.5% 19.8% 43.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
9 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.297 0.315 0.167 34.6% 3.5% 24.4% 43.8% 1B $2,200 1B $3,300 3B $6,700

Doesn’t really matter what side of the plate – Tomlin is terrible against both. Everyone except Ben Gamel and Ryon Healy are viable options and it wouldn’t surprise me if one of those two went off with a career game. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are the obvious top options while Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, and Mike Zunino provide the most pop from the rest of the lineup. Very affordable team to stack with no hitter over $4,400 on either site.

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura

Stackability – GREEN

200w

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.371 0.372 0.217 40.5% 8.4% 12.8% 38.1% SS $4,200 SS $4,900 SS $9,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.276 0.295 0.130 27.2% 9.3% 18.6% 42.0% 2B $3,400 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.389 0.368 0.244 36.6% 6.6% 10.2% 40.3% 3B $4,200 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.353 0.396 0.201 36.6% 19.0% 21.9% 43.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
5 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.296 0.302 0.081 25.0% 4.1% 11.7% 50.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.283 0.347 0.235 37.5% 7.4% 24.1% 38.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,400
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.355 0.334 0.254 39.5% 9.4% 26.6% 41.2% C $2,900 C $3,200 C $6,500
8 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.297 0.309 0.127 21.9% 7.2% 21.1% 42.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 LF $5,100
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.271 0.288 0.112 24.3% 8.2% 18.5% 43.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 CF $4,900

How does this game only have a run total of 9?

cue 1-0 pitcher’s duel

Against a LHP, we obviously want RH bats, but don’t be afraid to utilize LH bats against Gonzales either as he likes to let them hit homers just as much as RH bats. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion are all in prime spots to smash. I also like Jason Kipnis and Yonder Alonso as LH bats and Yan Gomes is great as a one off catcher or as part of Indians stack with a .254 ISO against LHP.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

200w


Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

thehazyone
Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix