MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 24th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Seattle at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Seattle Boston
Article Image Marco Gonzales Article Image Chris Sale
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-230 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.261 0.323 36.6% 3.9% 13.7% 48.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.253 27.3% 4.9% 36.1% 45.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.349 35.4% 5.9% 22.1% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.257 24.9% 7.0% 34.3% 43.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Gonzales
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.48 6.08 17.3% 6.0% 45.4% 29.1% 23.4%
2018 15 3.76 3.80 20.9% 5.7% 46.1% 35.6% 15.6%
L14 3 3.79 5.30 19.2% 3.9% 44.1% 47.5% 15.3%

Marco Gonzales has pitched well for the Ms this season. The lefty’s SIERA of 3.76 isn’t too far off from his 3.80 ERA, and he has posted a 20.9% strikeout rate while keeping walks to a minimum. He has also done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground. While Gonzales is a fine enough talent, going on the road to face the Red Sox isn’t a fun way for a pitcher to spend an afternoon. The BoSox rarely strike out and they have power in spades.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzales is an easy fade given the brutal matchup.

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,300 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $25,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 16 2.64 2.74 34.6% 6.7% 43.8% 25.2% 28.3%
L14 3 2.27 1.71 37.0% 7.4% 64.3% 20.9% 27.9%

Chris Sale has a legitimate claim to be the best starter in baseball. The lanky lefty has a sparkling K-rate of 34.6% and a SIERA of 2.64 despite pitching half of his game in the hitter’s paradise known as Fenway Park. The AL East isn’t exactly the easiest division to call home, either. Even so, Sale’s hard contact rate is considerably lower than his soft contact rate and opposing hitters have a collective wOBA around .250 against him. While the Mariners are a strong offense, this is still Chris Sale we’re talking about. He’s the top pitching option of the afternoon slate.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the best pitching option on the afternoon docket.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners face Chris Sale today, so you probably already know how much interest I have in their hitters. Someone like Nelson Cruz is always a viable one-off in GPPs, but that’ll do it for Seattle today in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.260 0.231 0.071 20.3% 1.1% 9.8% 53.4% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.328 0.296 0.148 24.7% 5.1% 15.3% 45.2% SS $3,600 SS $4,700 SS $9,400
3 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.349 0.371 0.171 39.7% 8.9% 21.1% 46.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 RF $9,000
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.469 0.510 0.410 46.0% 11.0% 16.4% 36.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,200
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.317 0.326 0.186 31.5% 3.8% 23.6% 37.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.355 0.346 0.241 31.0% 6.5% 25.8% 35.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,700
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.311 0.224 0.083 26.9% 8.5% 16.9% 34.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 CF $4,500
8 Denard Span LEFT 0.344 0.430 0.106 37.8% 14.3% 19.6% 43.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,300
9 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.287 0.342 0.157 40.7% 7.3% 43.6% 25.9% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,700
Team Averages 0.336 0.342 0.175 33.2% 7.4% 21.3% 39.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysNelson Cruz

StackabilityRED

Boston

Marco Gonzales isn’t bad by any means, but he’s a lefty with a wide split pitching in a park that is quite friendly to those that swing it from the right side. 8 of the 9 dongs he’s allowed this season have come against right-handed hitters, and we know Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez are both fans of hittin’ dingers. They’re the top options on the Red Sox side, but lesser hitters like Eduardo Nunez and Blake Swihart are in play if they’re in the lineup. Xander Bogaerts also grades out well if he returns from his finger injury. If you want a lefty I’d go with Andrew Benintendi, but that’s probably where I’d draw the line.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.491 0.374 0.423 38.3% 10.2% 10.2% 36.2% OF $5,100 OF $6,000 RF $12,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.281 0.431 0.213 15.9% 8.7% 26.1% 50.0% OF $4,400 OF $5,100 LF $10,100
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.362 0.404 0.131 50.0% 6.2% 35.4% 50.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $11,000
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.266 0.360 0.170 38.7% 7.8% 31.4% 51.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.415 0.375 0.170 30.3% 14.5% 25.5% 33.3% SS $3,900 SS $4,900 SS $9,200
6 Brock Holt LEFT 0.257 0.277 0.067 10.0% 16.7% 27.8% 66.7% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,400
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.246 0.331 0.127 25.0% 2.7% 26.0% 44.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,000
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.256 0.253 0.000 33.3% 7.4% 25.9% 33.3% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,700
9 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.276 0.212 0.045 20.0% 12.0% 28.0% 26.7% OF $2,000 1B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,500
Team Averages 0.317 0.335 0.150 29.1% 9.6% 26.3% 43.6%

Elite PlaysJ.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts (if in lineup)

Secondary PlaysEduardo Nunez, Blake Swihart, Andrew Benintendi

StackabilityGREEN


Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
Article Image Tyler Chatwood Article Image Sal Romano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.380 0.403 34.9% 19.9% 17.0% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.386 38.6% 11.1% 14.0% 42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.317 21.8% 20.1% 24.3% 64.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.338 34.1% 8.9% 17.8% 48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

NOTE: Tyler Chatwood has been scratched. Mike Montgomery will start for the Cubs on Sunday.

Tyler Chatwood
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 14 5.94 3.95 20.3% 20.0% 55.9% 29.4% 19.6%
L14 3 5.24 3.68 24.3% 20.0% 68.6% 16.2% 37.8%

This was originally going to be Tyler Chatwood, but Mike Montgomery will now start for the Cubs. Monty has been solid since entering the rotation, and the southpaw has a 3.11 ERA along with a 4.23 SIERA on the year. He doesn’t miss many bats (15.2% Ks), but the ground ball rate over 60% helps make up for that. Soft contact ground balls make for an efficient, if unspectacular, way to pitch through games. While Montgomery is likely to give the Cubs a handful of innings without getting blown up, he doesn’t carry a whole lot of upside. That said, he’s cheap enough to at least enter the SP2 conversation, especially considering he’ll have the platoon edge against most of Cincinnati’s better hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a fine enough SP2 on this slate.

Sal Romano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5%
2018 15 4.99 5.18 15.9% 9.9% 45.3% 36.3% 20.9%
L14 2 4.86 0.60 14.3% 8.9% 48.8% 39.5% 18.6%

Sal Romano was excellent in his last start against the Tigers at home, but a matchup with the Cubs is considerably more daunting. Romano has a middling strikeout rate under 16% along with a walk rate hovering dangerously close to 10%. He has also allowed a hard contact rate over 36% while also having already allowed a career-high 13 dingers. Romano is cheap, but today’s matchup with the Cubs carries very little upside.

Quick Breakdown: Romano has more downside than upside today against the Cubs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Sal Romano is a hittable right-hander pitching in a homer-friendly yard against a solid Cubs offense this afternoon. While the Cubs have been a frustrating offense to depend upon for much of the season, the team’s collective track record says they’ll figure it out sooner or later. Romano has been considerably worse against lefties, so Rizzo, Heyward, Schwarber and Happ are (yet again) looking like solid plays. Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras are solid enough righties to warrant consideration, too. I certainly won’t blame you if you want to fade the Cubs considering how underwhelming they’ve been, but the numbers say they grade out as a strong offense in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.366 0.288 0.151 33.5% 11.5% 19.7% 36.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,000
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.373 0.378 0.160 34.6% 9.4% 9.4% 38.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
3 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.353 0.288 0.139 30.2% 15.4% 13.0% 44.8% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.394 0.389 0.201 34.4% 11.2% 9.8% 36.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.311 0.216 0.156 29.7% 7.7% 18.4% 51.1% C $2,600 C $3,800 IF/OF $7,700
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.386 0.384 0.298 41.2% 16.3% 25.1% 45.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,900
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.258 0.247 0.093 30.8% 5.5% 20.2% 49.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.353 0.320 0.280 36.7% 3.9% 27.2% 40.3% 2B $4,100 2B/SS $4,600 2B $9,100
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.155 0.300 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 26.3% 72.7% P $6,000 P $6,100 P $11,700
Team Averages 0.328 0.312 0.164 30.1% 9.0% 18.8% 46.0%

Elite PlaysAnthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Kris Bryant

Secondary PlaysWillson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

StackabilityGREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds looked a whole lot more appealing when Tyler Chatwood was supposed to be starting this game. Mike Montgomery makes a living on limiting hard contact and inducing easy ground balls. The southpaw has only allowed 4 home runs all season. While this is a good park for power, Montgomery generally isn’t a guy I find myself wanting to pick on. Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall have excellent career numbers against LHPs, so I’m fine with one or both of them in GPPs. I’ll pass on the Reds’ lefty bats, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.297 0.340 0.081 30.3% 5.1% 11.5% 38.4% SS $3,100 SS $3,600 SS $7,300
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.331 0.371 0.110 36.4% 10.2% 18.3% 40.4% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.474 0.479 0.163 39.5% 17.5% 12.3% 32.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.352 0.260 0.196 39.5% 6.6% 16.9% 39.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,600 2B $8,900
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.404 0.414 0.272 45.7% 7.8% 18.3% 34.9% 3B $3,800 3B $5,000 3B $10,000
6 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.376 0.363 0.093 42.0% 12.8% 12.8% 40.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.351 0.406 0.198 34.2% 7.3% 27.7% 33.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
8 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.123 0.050 0.067 16.7% 0.0% 64.7% 66.7% P $6,200 P $4,500 P $9,100
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.246 0.292 0.081 18.8% 11.1% 26.7% 46.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,400
Team Averages 0.328 0.331 0.140 33.7% 8.7% 23.2% 41.3%

Elite PlaysEugenio Suarez

Secondary PlaysAdam Duvall, Joey Votto

StackabilityORANGE


Detroit at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Detroit Cleveland
Article Image Matt Boyd Article Image Adam Plutko
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-156 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.255 40.7% 2.7% 22.7% 35.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.483 0.483 45.2% 12.7% 10.9% 28.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.319 33.7% 11.5% 18.7% 30.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.288 33.3% 2.0% 24.5% 25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0%
2018 14 4.74 3.63 19.6% 9.5% 31.3% 35.4% 20.4%
L14 3 4.65 5.28 23.2% 13.0% 33.3% 45.2% 14.3%

Matt Boyd has gotten good results this season, but his underlying numbers indicate he’s pitching a bit over his head. His 3.63 ERA this season is a drastic improvement over his career mark, but his 4.74 SIERA says he’s gotten fairly lucky. Boyd is a fly ball lefty allowing a hard contact rate over 35%. He also has a subpar K-rate of 19.6% and his walks are nearing 10%. It’s probably also worth noting that playing pitchers in Cleveland against this Indians lineup is a good way to lose money quickly.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Boyd today.

Adam Plutko
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 5.18 5.04 17.3% 7.7% 26.9% 39.7% 15.4%
L14 1 5.23 8.10 18.8% 9.4% 17.4% 34.8% 13.0%

Adam Plutko enjoyed a couple of solid spot-starts for the Tribe this season before coming crashing back down to earth. In limited big league duty this season the right-hander has a 5.16 SIERA and he’s allowed a hard-hit rate a shade south of 40%. He is also one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in the league, which isn’t a particularly favorable trait when you’re pitching at Progressive Field. The Tigers offense opposing Plutko today isn’t imposing, but Plutko also likely won’t be good enough to take advantage.

Quick Breakdown: Plutko may outscore Matt Boyd today, but that’s the only compliment I can think of. Fade both pitchers in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Adam Plutko is an extreme fly ball righty that has gotten absolutely blasted by lefties in his career. Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario immediately stand out as hitters capable of taking advantage of said numbers. I don’t think the righties are worth ignoring completely, though, which puts Nick Castellanos squarely in play. You can also try Victor Martinez in tournaments, but he’s too washed to be considered for cash. The Tigers are a viable mini-stack in GPPs against Plutko.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.428 0.387 0.197 42.3% 10.7% 20.4% 35.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,700 CF $9,000
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.328 0.313 0.212 36.6% 12.9% 23.8% 37.4% 3B $2,900 3B $4,600 3B $9,100
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.368 0.331 0.191 48.5% 4.2% 23.5% 33.7% OF $2,700 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.358 0.301 0.090 42.8% 8.1% 9.7% 39.5% C $2,000 1B $2,900 1B $5,900
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.343 0.287 0.244 35.4% 10.0% 30.7% 41.5% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,600 1B $7,300
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.296 0.322 0.157 44.0% 3.6% 30.9% 38.2% C $2,000 1B/C $3,400 1B $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.278 0.172 0.066 35.8% 6.1% 20.6% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,900
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.282 0.318 0.103 24.4% 4.1% 11.5% 44.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,700
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.303 0.219 0.169 31.1% 3.9% 27.4% 41.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.332 0.294 0.159 37.9% 7.1% 22.1% 39.1%

Elite PlaysJeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Leonys Martin

Secondary PlaysVictor Martinez

StackabilityYELLOW

Cleveland

As was the case on Saturday, the Indians draw a matchup with a homer-prone lefty this afternoon. While Boyd has decent numbers this season, his good fortune could easily run out today against a strong Tribe offense. The righties are the preferred choices here, which means Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor stand out in any format. Cheaper options like Yan Gomes, Brandon Guyer and Rajai Davis are also playable. Boyd hasn’t exactly stifled lefties in his career, either, so Michael Brantley makes for a potential sleeper option in a lefty-lefty matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.397 0.353 0.205 42.9% 10.9% 11.9% 48.7% SS $4,900 SS $5,500 SS $10,700
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.354 0.312 0.151 26.9% 3.9% 7.8% 50.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.376 0.417 0.217 39.7% 6.7% 11.2% 37.5% 3B $5,200 3B $5,700 IF/OF $11,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.377 0.313 0.156 44.4% 12.3% 26.0% 22.2% 1B $3,900 1B $4,800 1B $9,500
5 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.398 0.408 0.245 34.1% 11.1% 14.3% 36.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $5,700
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.357 0.361 0.200 38.3% 7.7% 20.0% 44.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.417 0.437 0.259 51.3% 11.8% 27.9% 23.1% C $2,900 C $3,900 C $7,800
8 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.305 0.362 0.127 34.0% 8.9% 24.1% 30.8% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.291 0.296 0.000 34.8% 8.1% 17.7% 43.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.364 0.362 0.173 38.5% 9.0% 17.9% 37.5%

Elite PlaysEdwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary PlaysYan Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN


LA Dodgers at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers NY Mets
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image **
LEFT **
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-150 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.359 31.8% 19.4% 19.4% 31.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.393 0.404 45.7% 7.8% 23.5% 35.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,900
Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.61 3.32 30.1% 8.9% 36.9% 30.2% 20.7%
2018 7 4.48 4.99 22.5% 10.9% 34.5% 42.4% 16.3%
L14 1 3.72 0.00 26.1% 8.7% 42.9% 20.0% 13.3%

Rich Hill has endured his fair share of struggles and injuries this season, but he was excellent in his first start off the DL last week. The veteran reportedly made a mechanical adjustment while on the disabled list, and that evidently paid dividends last time out. Hill held the Cubs scoreless over 6 innings while allowing just 3 hits and striking out 6. He threw 90 pitches, so it stands to reason he could be allowed to go somewhere between 90 and 100 today in New York. The matchup today is also quite a bit more favorable against a Mets lineup that has struggled mightily, especially against left-handed pitching. Hill has been an elite strikeout pitcher (over 30% last season) over the last couple of years, and if he has rediscovered his old delivery perhaps he can be that guy again moving forward. Hill has seen a big price bump since we last saw him, but he’s still a value for his talent level, matchup and ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Hill is a solid option today against the scuffling Mets.

Editor’s Note – Jerry Blevins will start for the Mets on Sunday against the Dodgers.

#VALUE!
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,900
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 8.34 0.00 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0%
2018 0 7.27 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0%
L14 0 7.27 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0%

Jerry Blevins has been tabbed as the starter for the Mets today. Considering the veteran lefty hasn’t tossed more than 30 pitches in a game this year, it’s safe to say the Mets are taking the bullpen approach today. Blevins likely won’t pitch more than 2 innings, so he need not be on your fantasy radar despite the cheap tag.

Quick Breakdown: The Mets are going with a bullpen game today, so don’t try to get cute with Blevins.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Mets have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors this season, but targeting offenses against bullpens can be tricky. Mickey Callaway will likely lean heavily on playing matchups in this one, which makes the Dodgers’ offensive output somewhat difficult to predict. Matt Kemp has been killing it this season, so I think he’s worth having on your radar. Guys like Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal and Max Muncy are also playable, but there are a lot of different ways this game could go today. As such, I’m more comfortable playing Dodger hitters in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.336 0.289 0.190 31.8% 7.8% 29.4% 32.8% SS $3,300 OF/SS $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.282 0.401 0.215 26.7% 8.0% 23.0% 28.8% OF $2,400 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.288 0.419 0.100 31.3% 6.6% 7.9% 40.6% 3B $3,000 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.368 0.355 0.181 42.2% 3.8% 22.6% 40.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 LF $8,300
5 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.299 0.343 0.116 29.3% 7.4% 12.8% 41.3% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,800
6 Max Muncy LEFT 0.437 0.493 0.330 47.4% 18.0% 25.2% 34.6% 3B $3,700 1B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $8,900
7 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.385 0.389 0.233 37.6% 8.5% 19.9% 33.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 RF $7,300
8 Austin Barnes RIGHT 0.306 0.219 0.037 16.7% 16.2% 26.5% 55.6% C $2,000 2B/C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.054 0.057 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $7,600 P $8,600 P $16,900
Team Averages 0.306 0.329 0.156 32.9% 8.5% 24.1% 45.3%

Elite PlaysMatt Kemp

Secondary PlaysCody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal, Max Muncy

StackabilityORANGE

NY Mets

Rich Hill has struggled in general this season, but there’s a chance he’s figured out what was wrong. Hill is a lefty, but it’s definitely worth noting that he has shown some reverse-splits since becoming a full-time starter again a couple of years ago. Even so, I don’t have a whole lot of interest in playing hitters against Hill in a pitcher-friendly park. Someone like Wilmer Flores and Todd Frazier make for decent values at their respective positions, while Michael Conforto seems to be heating up. Still, I see no real reason to get cute here. You can pull a mini-stack in tournaments if you’re not a believer in Hill, but I’ll be passing.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.298 0.325 0.212 48.3% 12.9% 37.1% 57.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 LF $8,600
2 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.335 0.302 0.114 42.3% 16.3% 23.3% 42.3% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,600
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.342 0.308 0.138 37.3% 5.7% 17.2% 53.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 SS $7,500
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.354 0.351 0.127 32.7% 8.2% 6.6% 26.9% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,700
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.334 0.381 0.203 26.8% 11.0% 32.9% 56.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
6 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.355 0.316 0.200 37.5% 26.5% 22.4% 29.2% OF $2,500 3B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,300
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.334 0.345 0.114 33.3% 11.9% 19.0% 51.9% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,300
8 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.336 0.201 0.172 34.1% 3.3% 23.3% 40.9% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.693 0.261 0.000 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $5,600 P $4,200 P $8,200
Team Averages 0.376 0.310 0.142 32.5% 21.8% 20.2% 39.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysWilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier

StackabilityORANGE / RED


NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
Article Image Domingo German Article Image Matt Andriese
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-115 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.268 33.8% 6.0% 24.8% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.234 0.293 40.7% 4.4% 17.4% 53.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.317 41.3% 10.5% 32.1% 37.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.337 46.0% 5.4% 26.8% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Domingo German
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.93 3.14 29.0% 14.5% 54.5% 28.6% 25.7%
2018 8 3.34 4.77 28.7% 8.4% 38.7% 37.4% 16.8%
L14 3 1.90 3.32 38.9% 2.8% 39.0% 39.0% 19.5%

Domingo German has had his ups and downs since replacing the injured Jordan Montgomery, but he’s been fantastic lately. The right-hander has piled up 28 strikeouts over his last 3 starts combined, and he now boasts a strong K-rate just under 29% on the season. He also seems to have reigned in the walks as the season has gone on. German’s hard-hit rate over 37% is a cause for concern, and he has shown a strong fly ball lean so far this season despite not having done so in the past. German draws a strong matchup today against the Rays in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. It didn’t quite work out for Sonny Gray yesterday, but German has far more upside.

Quick Breakdown: German is squarely in play today against the Rays.

Matt Andriese
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.42 4.50 20.3% 7.5% 44.9% 38.7% 19.2%
2018 2 3.15 3.68 23.2% 5.0% 50.0% 43.8% 18.0%
L14 0 3.78 5.19 15.0% 7.5% 60.0% 40.0% 13.3%

The Rays have used Matt Andriese as a long reliever in recent weeks, but today he draws the start against the Yankees. The righty has a respectable strikeout rate over 23% along with minimal walks and a ground ball rate north of 50%. However, he’s also yielded a hard contact rate nearing 44% while showing pretty staunch reverse-splits. Andriese has managed to handle lefties this season (.234 wOBA), but righties have fared much better (.334). Wilmer Font mowed down this Yankees lineup yesterday, but I’m not overly optimistic about Andriese’s chances of doing the same. While he is cheap, I don’t think you really need to go that cheap with your SP2 on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Andriese isn’t in a favorable spot today against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yanks get a severe park downgrade today going into the Trop, which dampens their outlook on the whole. While my interest in Andriese on the other side is minimal, it’s tough to get excited about New York hitters going up against him. Aaron Judge is just about always in play, and he figures to be able to take advantage of Andriese’s aforementioned reverse-splits. He’s expensive, though, and there are other expensive bats in better spots this afternoon. I won’t talk you out of guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Didi Gregorius for tournaments, but there isn’t much need to cram a bunch of pricey NYY bats into your lineups today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.348 0.389 0.184 37.5% 12.7% 19.3% 44.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.410 0.389 0.309 50.0% 14.1% 30.0% 46.8% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 RF $11,000
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.303 0.344 0.173 34.7% 8.7% 33.5% 52.8% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $10,100
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.352 0.357 0.265 41.3% 9.5% 13.7% 34.0% SS $3,700 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.341 0.316 0.229 36.9% 9.4% 25.7% 42.6% C $3,300 C $4,200 C $8,200
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.402 0.313 0.262 39.4% 5.6% 26.6% 30.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.290 0.292 0.262 39.1% 4.3% 27.5% 41.3% 1B $2,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.364 0.320 0.215 35.0% 3.4% 18.4% 50.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,300
9 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.324 0.320 0.091 42.9% 7.7% 30.8% 57.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
Team Averages 0.348 0.338 0.221 39.6% 8.4% 25.1% 44.4%

Elite PlaysAaron Judge

Secondary PlaysGiancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

StackabilityORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays face Domingo German today, who looks like one of the better young starters in the game these days. German has also shown some reverse-splits, so RHBs with power are decent punts in tournaments. That means Wilson Ramos at a thin catcher spot and possibly C.J. Cron. Again, though, I don’t love targeting hitters in this park, especially hitters facing tough pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.224 0.067 0.030 26.3% 10.8% 37.8% 52.6% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,500
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.337 0.379 0.137 33.3% 4.7% 15.7% 48.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,700 3B $7,400
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.338 0.315 0.233 38.9% 21.1% 31.6% 27.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.339 0.368 0.146 38.8% 8.2% 21.1% 52.1% C $2,400 C $3,500 C $6,900
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.278 0.226 0.096 35.3% 5.2% 22.8% 52.2% 2B $2,200 2B $3,000 2B $5,800
6 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.354 0.331 0.209 34.6% 6.1% 25.0% 46.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,400
7 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.177 0.205 0.000 12.5% 10.3% 34.5% 56.3% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,300 SS $6,500
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.277 0.309 0.090 26.2% 9.0% 19.0% 48.1% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
9 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.298 0.284 0.125 30.1% 7.1% 23.7% 36.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
Team Averages 0.291 0.276 0.118 30.7% 9.2% 25.7% 46.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysWilson Ramos, C.J. Cron

StackabilityRED


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles