MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-18 01:11:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET (Game 1)

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Minnesota
			Carlos Carrasco							Kyle Gibson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-166							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.319	37.5%	7.9%	24.6%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.346	33.3%	9.7%	13.9%	48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.277	31.5%	4.9%	27.3%	49.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.356	33.8%	8.8%	17.1%	51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$21,600
	Salary Rank:		3 of 26	Salary Rank:		5 of 26	Salary Rank:		3 of 26
	2016	25	3.44	3.32	25.0%	5.7%	48.5%	36.4%	16.0%
	2017	23	3.57	3.83	27.2%	6.8%	43.7%	31.7%	17.8%
	L30	5	4.07	4.55	23.9%	7.7%	42.1%	33.3%	20.5%

We are only one day away from the weekend and in fact, my weekend pretty much starts tonight. I’m shipping out to Vegas to celebrate my wife’s 30th birthday. I won’t be writing the Grind Down on Friday, but I will be leaving it in good hands.

We kick off the five-game early slate with the first game of a double-header between the Indians and Twins. Carrasco will get the ball in the first game, while Mike Clevinger will draw the start in the second game. We know how well Carrasco has pitched on the road throughout his career and he is having another stellar season for the Indians, posting a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The strikeout upside is there in a matchup against the Twins, he should see plenty of run support with Kyle Gibson pitching opposite him, and he’s affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is my favorite pitching option in the early slate, slightly edging out Archer and Fiers.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		25 of 26	Salary Rank:		25 of 26	Salary Rank:		11 of 26
	2016	25	4.73	5.07	15.9%	8.4%	48.8%	31.0%	18.6%
	2017	20	5.12	6.02	15.1%	10.3%	52.1%	37.0%	14.7%
	L30	4	4.41	5.01	20.8%	10.9%	58.0%	30.4%	18.8%

Gibson isn’t a pitcher that we need to spend too much time on. He has a SIERA above 5.00 with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of only 10%. He has an above-average ground ball rate, but that’s about it. He draws a difficult matchup against the Indians, who are ranked seventh in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward here, even at home.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are one of the stacks that could get overlooked in this slate thanks to the fact that the Rockies, Rangers, and Cubs are all in such great matchups. Cleveland has an excellent matchup in their own right, as they face Kyle Gibson, who has allowed a .346+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Jason Kipnis had a nice game last night and is arguably the top value play on the board. The two through six hitters all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.310	0.317	0.197	30.9%	7.8%	14.1%	39.1%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.285	0.296	0.162	30.7%	6.9%	20.2%	31.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.387	0.351	0.246	33.9%	8.0%	11.2%	39.2%	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,800
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.356	0.369	0.241	38.1%	12.7%	21.7%	35.7%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,400	1B	$10,500
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.371	0.365	0.269	42.1%	9.8%	22.3%	33.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.348	0.379	0.200	37.2%	14.0%	19.9%	33.2%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.325	0.299	0.122	40.6%	8.6%	22.6%	42.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
8	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.322	0.314	0.188	36.6%	9.8%	29.9%	44.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.231	0.244	0.054	22.7%	7.8%	27.5%	49.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,200	C	$4,000

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

In a slate that features some great offenses, the Twins are one of the easier fades on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Carlos Carrasco, who has an elite strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.316	0.307	0.198	33.6%	8.7%	21.2%	39.4%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
2	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.362	0.326	0.221	37.2%	9.2%	16.3%	40.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.351	0.395	0.131	40.3%	12.8%	12.8%	48.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.346	0.343	0.218	46.3%	10.2%	37.0%	38.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.369	0.326	0.236	33.0%	7.6%	18.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.328	0.334	0.139	29.8%	13.8%	19.3%	42.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
7	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.265	0.251	0.109	24.5%	6.6%	32.2%	40.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
8	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.290	0.286	0.103	26.9%	8.7%	14.1%	40.7%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.308	0.331	0.156	37.0%	13.7%	27.8%	39.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Houston
			Patrick Corbin							Mike Fiers
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-135							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.303	35.1%	7.8%	30.4%	53.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.318	32.2%	7.9%	19.4%	43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	0.348	36.1%	8.2%	17.0%	51.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	0.343	34.6%	6.8%	21.0%	41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Patrick Corbin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 24	Salary Rank:		8 of 24	Salary Rank:		3 of 24
	2016	24	4.38	5.15	18.7%	9.4%	53.8%	38.5%	15.2%
	2017	24	4.00	4.52	21.8%	6.6%	49.1%	33.0%	17.3%
	L30	6	3.79	3.97	24.8%	6.5%	43.1%	30.8%	16.4%

Corbin has been sharp in his last six outings, posting a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has been a nice source of upside at a reasonable price point, but he draws one of the worst possible matchups. On the season, Houston is ranked second in team wOBA and first in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Corbin is a sizable underdog in a road start and the total for the game is set at 9.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Fiers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 24	Salary Rank:		14 of 24	Salary Rank:		5 of 24
	2016	30	4.26	4.48	18.5%	5.8%	42.2%	35.3%	17.2%
	2017	23	4.41	4.36	22.5%	9.3%	43.0%	30.7%	19.9%
	L30	6	4.30	5.77	24.8%	9.4%	29.7%	32.6%	19.6%

Fiers is an intriguing play in the early slate and he should get overlooked with Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, and Jon Lester all pitching in the early games. Fiers doesn’t have the lowest SIERA around, but he has a 23% strikeout rate on the season and a 25% strikeout rate in his last five starts. He is a fly-ball pitcher that benefits from playing in a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark. His matchup against the Diamondbacks doesn’t look great on paper, but they have struggled away from Chase Field. They are ranked in the bottom five of team wOBA on the road and have a 24% strikeout rate as a team.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers is viable in both cash games (SP2) and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are a completely different offense on the road. They may have a talented core, but most of their damage offensively has come in Chase Field this season. In addition to his above-average strikeout rate, Mike Fiers has held left-handed hitters to a .318 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate. He has had some issues with righties though, allowing a .343 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.347	0.302	0.151	33.0%	14.3%	21.8%	37.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,400
2	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.334	0.311	0.160	38.9%	6.6%	21.4%	43.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.407	0.382	0.286	36.5%	14.9%	20.4%	39.9%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.431	0.403	0.293	44.4%	14.7%	22.6%	44.8%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,400
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.365	0.386	0.287	44.2%	12.4%	26.0%	43.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.336	0.323	0.165	40.7%	12.3%	22.7%	39.3%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,200	2B	$6,400
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.305	0.291	0.244	38.7%	8.4%	37.1%	37.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
8	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.327	0.327	0.175	28.0%	9.7%	19.4%	35.4%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
9	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.344	0.310	0.175	31.9%	7.5%	20.0%	49.5%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball and should throw plenty of right-handed hitters at the southpaw, Patrick Corbin. Since the start of last season, Corbin has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate against righties. The Astros are still missing Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis, but George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman all own a .400+ wOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.449	0.427	0.310	36.1%	11.8%	15.1%	39.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.415	0.359	0.221	27.8%	13.1%	12.3%	29.2%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.408	0.325	0.222	26.3%	9.9%	11.6%	49.5%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,500	2B	$10,800
4	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.289	0.288	0.142	33.3%	4.9%	13.1%	54.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
5	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.356	0.279	0.228	26.4%	8.7%	19.2%	48.6%	SS	$3,300	OF/SS	$4,300	1B	$8,400
6	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.231	0.253	0.095	37.3%	4.0%	28.7%	38.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
7	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.319	0.285	0.185	22.6%	9.8%	31.5%	28.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
8	Max Stassi	RIGHT								C	$2,200	C	$2,200	C	$4,000
9	Derek Fisher	LEFT	0.283	0.225	0.125	20.0%	15.8%	31.6%	77.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Chicago Cubs
			Scott Feldman							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-210
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.349	28.2%	8.9%	16.6%	46.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.223	0.252	26.2%	3.9%	30.8%	54.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.295	29.3%	5.2%	20.3%	45.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.299	0.290	26.8%	7.8%	23.4%	45.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Scott Feldman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		20 of 24	Salary Rank:		23 of 24	Salary Rank:		9 of 24
	2016	5	4.07	3.97	16.6%	5.6%	49.8%	24.6%	21.2%
	2017	20	4.39	4.43	20.3%	7.7%	42.9%	32.2%	20.6%
	L30	2	4.84	14.40	21.4%	7.1%	10.5%	55.0%	15.0%

Feldman isn’t as bad of a pitcher as a lot of people in the DFS community want him to be. That doesn’t mean that he’s a good fantasy option, but he’s better than a lot of gas cans that are getting starts at this point of the season. In his 20 starts, he has a 4.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He comes into today’s game as a massive underdog against the Cubs, who have really picked up their play since the All-Star break. We also have a classic summer game in Wrigley Field with the wind blowing straight out to center at 15+ MPH.

Quick Breakdown: Nope. Nada. No thanks.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$22,800
	Salary Rank:		3 of 24	Salary Rank:		4 of 24	Salary Rank:		2 of 24
	2016	32	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	46.9%	26.8%	18.9%
	2017	25	3.76	3.99	25.5%	7.4%	47.6%	26.4%	20.5%
	L30	6	3.15	3.26	29.6%	5.3%	44.3%	23.7%	12.4%

Lester doesn’t seem to have the same type of upside as the other elite pitchers in baseball, but he still owns a 3.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% on the season. The issue today is obviously the wind blowing out to center field. This game is full expected to be a shootout, as lazy fly balls can often find their way over the outfield wall when the wind is blowing in this ballpark. Lester does own an above-average ground ball rate, but the risk outweighs the potential reward.

Quick Breakdown: When the wind is blowing out in Wrigley, I treat these games like I do Coors Field. Avoid the pitchers and load up on the bats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds’ matchup against Jon Lester doesn’t look great on paper. Since the start of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. However, we can throw stats out the window when we see these types of winds in Wrigley Field. This could very well turn into a home run derby. I prefer the right-handed hitters in this Reds’ lineup, but Joey Votto is also viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.207	0.196	0.065	16.8%	1.4%	26.4%	45.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.487	0.389	0.356	41.3%	10.7%	13.1%	34.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.412	0.412	0.301	33.0%	17.6%	14.1%	43.6%	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.420	0.375	0.352	34.9%	8.3%	21.7%	41.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.389	0.367	0.255	45.5%	15.0%	25.7%	43.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
6	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.272	0.221	0.147	27.7%	4.2%	29.2%	47.8%	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,200	2B	$8,100
7	Patrick Kivlehan	RIGHT	0.339	0.330	0.218	30.0%	12.7%	23.8%	50.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	3B	$5,100
8	Stuart Turner	RIGHT	0.143	0.305	0.150	31.3%	0.0%	20.0%	37.5%	C	$2,300	C	$2,000	C	$3,900
9	Scott Feldman	RIGHT	0.000	0.151	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	40.0%	16.7%	P	$6,300	P	$5,700	P	$11,200

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Patrick Kivlehan

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Scott Feldman and they get to face him in great conditions for hitting home runs. Throughout his career, Feldman has been much worse against lefties than he has been against righties, but we can load up on hitters from both sides of the plate. I will have plenty of Cubs’ exposure and will be making a couple different game stacks here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.309	0.330	0.135	34.6%	11.1%	13.8%	53.7%	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,900
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.318	0.354	0.257	37.1%	11.6%	29.7%	40.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.388	0.335	0.236	30.5%	11.3%	20.1%	37.7%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,200
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.359	0.391	0.219	32.6%	14.0%	12.1%	38.7%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
5	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.394	0.434	0.240	55.0%	16.8%	30.8%	37.4%	C	$2,300	1B/C	$3,400	C	$6,800
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.347	0.341	0.273	33.1%	10.9%	29.7%	42.7%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.304	0.315	0.147	27.0%	8.3%	12.0%	48.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.307	0.294	0.192	32.5%	5.2%	28.6%	46.8%	SS	$3,100	2B/SS	$3,800	2B	$7,600
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.158	0.237	0.069	33.3%	3.1%	40.6%	58.8%	P	$9,500	P	$11,700	P	$22,800

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Colorado
			Lucas Sims							Jeff Hoffman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-180							12.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.397	0.380	30.0%	6.9%	13.8%	26.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.321	34.2%	8.2%	14.0%	45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.412	0.389	36.6%	2.1%	10.4%	36.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.384	0.325	32.4%	10.1%	21.7%	44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lucas Sims
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		24 of 24	Salary Rank:		24 of 24	Salary Rank:		10 of 24

	2017	3	5.29	5.71	11.7%	3.9%	33.3%	34.4%	16.4%
	L30	3	5.30	5.71	11.7%	3.9%	33.3%	34.4%	16.4%

One day after the Rockies put up 17 runs in Coors Field, Sims will take the mound for his fourth carer major league start. While his first three outings haven’t been great, he’s a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward. He was a first round draft pick in 2012 and in 19 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.39 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 28%.

Quick Breakdown: Today’s matchup against the Rockies makes Sims an easy fade in this slate, but he has some GPP appeal moving forward.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeff Hoffman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		20 of 24	Salary Rank:		18 of 24	Salary Rank:		7 of 24
	2016	6	5.22	4.88	15.0%	11.6%	50.0%	34.3%	20.4%
	2017	15	4.69	5.15	19.1%	8.2%	43.0%	33.0%	19.3%
	L30	6	5.34	6.97	15.3%	10.4%	48.1%	29.5%	21.0%

Hoffman looked good in his first few starts of the season, but has really struggled ever since. In his last six starts, he has a 5.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 10%. He hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate and he has to pitch in Coors Field in a game that features a total of 12.0 runs. Even though Hoffman is a big favorite, he’s an easy fade against the high-contact offense of the Braves.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hoffman in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense must think they are playing in Los Angeles, because they have not shown up in Coors Field yet this series. Maybe a matchup against the struggling Jeff Hoffman can light a fire under them. Since the start of last season, Hoffman has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. With the Rockies and Cubs in such great spots, this could be a rare opportunity to stack an offense in Coors Field at low ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.318	0.280	0.094	25.2%	6.6%	14.3%	42.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,100
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.327	0.310	0.155	26.4%	4.1%	11.1%	49.8%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.463	0.444	0.339	35.5%	14.8%	16.2%	34.8%	1B	$4,300	1B/3B	$5,600	1B	$10,800
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.334	0.344	0.120	35.9%	11.3%	18.2%	46.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.316	0.304	0.179	31.4%	6.3%	15.6%	39.7%	C	$3,400	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
6	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.282	0.280	0.174	35.8%	3.2%	20.8%	53.4%	3B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.219	0.254	0.034	36.0%	6.3%	15.6%	36.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.236	0.286	0.076	28.7%	9.1%	22.8%	50.7%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
9	Lucas Sims	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,000	P	$4,700	P	$9,200

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Danny Santana, Ozzie Albies

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies have the best offensive ballpark in baseball. While Lucas Sims has flashed some upside in the minors, he has yet to find his footing at the major league level. Young pitchers tend to struggle on the road and the Rockies’ offense finally has some momentum after scoring 17 runs last night. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here and we can stack the Rockies in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.419	0.368	0.292	38.7%	9.1%	21.2%	36.0%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,800	CF	$11,400
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.308	0.317	0.061	27.3%	7.9%	14.1%	58.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.350	0.326	0.229	35.5%	7.4%	18.7%	37.1%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,500	3B	$10,800
4	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.378	0.319	0.204	40.1%	4.5%	14.4%	47.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,200
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.390	0.334	0.250	34.5%	9.8%	27.4%	41.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.288	0.294	0.124	27.0%	10.2%	20.4%	46.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
7	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.291	0.302	0.094	22.8%	6.9%	11.5%	52.4%	C	$3,100	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
8	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.264	0.248	0.130	31.4%	8.9%	35.9%	35.1%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
9	Jeff Hoffman	RIGHT	0.157	0.130	0.053	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	80.0%	P	$6,300	P	$6,600	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Chris Archer							Chris Rowley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -145							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.299	36.4%	8.8%	28.4%	44.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.224	0.313	12.5%	10.0%	10.0%	12.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.297	34.4%	6.7%	28.2%	45.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292		20.0%	0.0%	16.7%	77.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$11,900	Salary:		$23,100
	Salary Rank:		1 of 24	Salary Rank:		3 of 24	Salary Rank:		1 of 24
	2016	33	3.50	4.02	27.4%	7.9%	47.8%	32.8%	18.0%
	2017	25	3.44	3.84	29.5%	7.5%	41.0%	38.6%	14.9%
	L30	6	3.20	3.47	32.5%	7.8%	36.7%	39.6%	8.8%

Archer continues to dominate for the Rays this season, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 30%. He does allow more hard contact than most elite pitchers, but that has yet to really hurt him this season. Today he gets to face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense that looks fairly weak after you get past their first four hitters. We know that Archer is talented enough to pitch well in any ballpark and the fact that he can feast on the lower half of this lineup helps his appeal in a road start in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Pitcher rankings for the early slate: 1. Carrasco 2. Archer. 3. Fiers

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Rowley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:		23 of 24	Salary Rank:		22 of 24	Salary Rank:		8 of 24

	2017	1	4.72	1.69	13.6%	4.6%	47.1%	16.7%	11.1%
	L30	1	4.73	1.69	13.6%	4.6%	47.1%	16.7%	11.1%

“They see me Rowley, they hatin. Patrolling, they tryin to catch me ridin’ dirty.”

Not sure why, but right when I said the name Rowley that song popped into my head. Today will be his second career major league start, so let’s quickly glance at his minor league numbers. In ten Triple-A outings this season, Rowley posted a 3.30 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 18%. That mark is low enough to cause concern and the fact that he’s listed as a sizable underdog at home makes him an easy fade today against the Rays.

Quick Breakdown: When you don’t strikeout the Rays, they have a potent offense. There are better options in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are very sneaky in this early slate. If we didn’t have a game in Coors Field and a game with the wind blowing out in Wrigley, they would likely become a chalky offense. However, those two games will garner a lot of ownership. This is a great spot to stack the Rays, as they are facing a rookie right-handed pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The one through five batters in this projected lineup all own a .180+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season and four of them have ISOs over .230.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.347	0.316	0.230	36.6%	6.2%	23.1%	38.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.370	0.381	0.278	42.4%	14.0%	24.8%	27.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.336	0.313	0.182	31.7%	5.3%	14.2%	43.7%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.368	0.378	0.281	40.8%	14.1%	24.8%	31.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.391	0.377	0.307	39.2%	13.1%	29.4%	39.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
6	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.316	0.249	0.094	21.2%	10.0%	20.5%	53.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.162	0.269	0.097	32.1%	2.6%	26.0%	47.2%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.229	0.257	0.051	27.1%	1.9%	21.9%	49.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.298	0.304	0.127	32.9%	9.1%	28.0%	52.5%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,900	LF	$4,800

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw one of the most difficult matchups in the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Chris Archer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in the last two seasons. In division games like this one, I always like to glance at BvP because the sample size is usually big enough to be meaningful. The one Blue Jays’ hitter that seems to have Archer’s number is Kendrys Morales, who is 15-for-25 with three home runs and five doubles against him in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.323	0.330	0.193	34.0%	12.9%	22.7%	34.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.372	0.373	0.221	33.3%	16.3%	23.6%	42.5%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,100	3B	$10,000
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.374	0.393	0.282	41.4%	10.1%	23.2%	32.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,000
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.301	0.364	0.194	36.3%	8.1%	21.5%	47.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,600
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.339	0.321	0.155	31.5%	9.9%	19.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	1B	$6,300
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.270	0.299	0.125	25.6%	5.6%	15.4%	46.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000	CF	$6,000
7	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.274	0.279	0.132	27.6%	7.7%	16.9%	46.1%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.236	0.255	0.094	16.8%	2.1%	15.2%	47.9%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,000	2B	$3,900
9	Rafael Lopez	LEFT												N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 17th

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Stackability Rating System:

Cleveland at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET (Game 1)

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Patrick Kivlehan

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Jason Heyward

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Kurt Suzuki, Danny Santana, Ozzie Albies

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Trevor Story

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

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