MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-20 00:47:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Washington
			David Hess							Jefry Rodriguez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-190							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.402	0.381	32.7%	9.0%	17.9%	30.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.354	50.0%	7.7%	0.0%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.337	34.5%	8.5%	8.5%	39.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.000	0.001	0.0%	16.7%	50.0%	0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Hess
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30

	2018	6	5.52	4.13	13.0%	8.7%	35.5%	33.6%	15.0%
	L14	2	6.17	5.79	14.0%	14.0%	30.0%	36.7%	20.0%

Hess will be making his seventh start of the season. He’s hoping this one will go a little better than the first six where he posted a 5.52 SIERA, a 13% strikeout rate, and a hard contact rate that is nearly as high as his ground ball rate. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against the Nationals, whose projected lineup has a .322 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 15% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hess should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jefry Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30

	2018	0	5.27	0.00	15.8%	10.5%	28.6%	42.9%	21.4%
	L14	0	5.27	0.00	15.8%	10.5%	28.6%	42.9%	21.4%

Rodriguez has made one appearance out of the bullpen, but will be making his first career major league start tonight against the Orioles. In 13 Double-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. These pitching debuts always have a wide range of potential outcomes, so avoiding Rodriguez in a cash game setting is an easy decision. He does have some appeal in tournaments at a price of only $5,900 on DraftKings. The projected lineup for the Orioles has a .314 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH in this series, and they are facing a talented young pitcher in Jefry Rodriguez. This is not a spot to load up on the Orioles outside of a full stack in a large-field tournament. As mentioned above, these pitching debuts have a wide range of potential outcomes, so if you are mass multi-entering a tournament, I would consider throwing in an Orioles’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corban Joseph	LEFT	0.282	0.282	0.000	33.3%	20.0%	20.0%	100.0%	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,500	2B	$5,000
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.355	0.311	0.200	35.4%	3.0%	18.7%	39.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.383	0.349	0.261	34.2%	10.8%	17.5%	33.6%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,800
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.366	0.398	0.189	33.9%	8.5%	19.5%	45.8%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,400
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.220	0.270	0.169	22.4%	2.0%	24.8%	49.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,700
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.372	0.281	0.132	35.0%	10.1%	24.3%	47.2%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,500
7	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.338	0.270	0.144	38.6%	6.2%	20.6%	41.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	DH	$7,600
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.193		0.191	25.8%	0.0%	35.4%	36.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$5,100
9	David Hess	RIGHT								P	$5,900	P	$4,700	P	$9,200
	Team Averages		0.314	0.309	0.161	32.3%	7.6%	22.6%	49.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corban Joseph, Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have one of the most talented collection of hitters in baseball. I expect them to take big strides offensively in the second half of the season, assuming they can stay healthy. They draw one of the best matchups of the slate, as they square off against David Hess. On the season, he has allowed a .381 xwOBA to lefties and a .337 xwOBA to righties. A full Nationals’ stack is viable in tournaments, the hard part is deciding which hitter(s) to leave out of the stack. Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy, and Juan Soto have all hit right-handed pitching well in their respective careers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.474	0.230	0.244	55.6%	6.5%	10.9%	41.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.334	0.287	0.139	33.8%	9.7%	19.9%	54.7%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.423	0.289	0.305	46.4%	18.4%	22.1%	36.6%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,500	RF	$11,000
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.365	0.183	35.2%	10.6%	13.4%	36.4%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,200
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.295	0.245	0.000	10.0%	8.3%	8.3%	20.0%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
6	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.342	0.363	0.130	36.4%	13.2%	24.5%	42.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,100
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.309	0.266	0.113	17.4%	9.9%	13.8%	47.7%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,000	2B	$5,700
8	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.252	0.145	0.054	22.9%	9.5%	21.0%	44.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	Jefry Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.088	0.088	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,900	P	$12,200
	Team Averages		0.322	0.253	0.130	28.6%	9.6%	14.9%	47.2%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Pittsburgh
			Freddy Peralta							Jameson Taillon
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-120							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.344	22.2%	20.8%	41.7%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	0.327	33.0%	11.2%	16.8%	48.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.207	0.223	40.0%	18.8%	50.0%	60.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.236	0.235	25.7%	1.9%	27.2%	53.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Freddy Peralta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,100
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29

	2018	2	3.58	3.72	45.0%	20.0%	50.0%	28.6%	21.4%

Peralta will be making his third major league start tonight against the Pirates. He’s the team’s ninth ranked prospect and he’s been absolutely dominant at the Triple-A level, posting a 2.55 FIP with a strikeout rate of 35%. He’s basically a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and curveball), but it’s clearly working for him. The fact that he’s only a small underdog on the road against a pitcher the caliber of Jameson Taillon shows how much respect the betting markets have for his skill set. While we shouldn’t look his way in cash games, he’s certainly viable in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Peralta is firmly on my radar as an SP2 in tournaments tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%
	2018	14	3.75	3.94	22.0%	6.5%	50.9%	29.4%	21.9%
	L14	2	4.01	3.75	21.2%	5.8%	40.0%	34.2%	13.2%

If we look at Taillon’s pitching table above, every single statistic for 2018 is highlighted in green. In 14 starts, he has a 3.75 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate and a 51% ground ball rate. He limits hard contact and throws a lot of strikes, which makes him a strong play in DFS. For whatever reason, he always seems underpriced across the industry and that’s the case again tonight — $7,700 on FanDuel and $8,400 on DraftKings. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has .308 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is an elite SP2 in all formats and viable as an SP1 in tournaments on single-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

This is not the game that I’m looking to load up on offensively, especially in a 15-game slate. Jameson Taillon has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates this season and he’s held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. Even though Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, and Eric Thames have mashed right-handed pitching this season, the Brewers are a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.325	0.320	0.116	35.3%	12.6%	19.1%	59.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.399	0.364	0.201	46.3%	10.8%	22.2%	49.6%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	CF	$9,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.329	0.406	0.184	33.7%	4.8%	25.3%	45.5%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,100	LF	$8,400
4	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.416	0.254	0.354	47.7%	11.0%	28.8%	36.4%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,000	1B	$10,200
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.421	0.316	0.313	40.3%	14.4%	16.7%	34.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,700
6	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.305	0.364	0.107	27.5%	4.5%	17.0%	47.1%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.258	0.289	0.091	33.0%	6.0%	31.3%	66.3%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
8	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.295	0.310	0.119	37.3%	5.1%	18.4%	43.1%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
9	Freddy Peralta	RIGHT	0.025		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$6,700	P	$7,800	P	$15,100
	Team Averages		0.308	0.328	0.165	33.5%	7.7%	27.3%	53.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are a little more interesting thanks to the fact that they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his third career start. However, DFS is all about options and we have plenty of them to choose from in a slate this size. The one hitter that I will continue to use as a one-off is Colin Moran. He continues to bat clean-up and he continues to be underpriced across the industry. He currently boasts a .375 xwOBA with a 34% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.314	0.380	0.125	35.0%	5.3%	15.0%	33.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.330	0.306	0.183	39.2%	1.6%	16.1%	35.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.299	0.308	0.156	27.8%	6.6%	19.4%	46.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,500
4	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.375	0.411	0.167	34.0%	9.8%	15.5%	39.7%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.416	0.354	0.262	38.2%	12.9%	19.0%	33.3%	C	$2,900	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.328	0.322	0.138	31.4%	10.3%	17.8%	51.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,500
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.349	0.283	0.208	37.6%	12.2%	21.5%	33.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.346	0.449	0.163	28.6%	8.1%	18.9%	39.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.133	0.030	0.050	23.1%	0.0%	38.1%	75.0%	P	$7,700	P	$8,400	P	$16,000
	Team Averages		0.321	0.316	0.161	32.8%	7.4%	20.1%	43.0%

Elite Plays – Colin Moran (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Colin Moran (Cash), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								NY Yankees
			Marco Gonzales							Domingo German
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-160							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.313	31.6%	2.2%	11.1%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.264	32.0%	6.4%	23.9%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.334	33.5%	6.4%	22.7%	46.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.342	43.1%	11.9%	31.4%	38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%
	2018	14	3.72	3.42	21.1%	5.8%	46.8%	33.2%	16.6%
	L14	2	3.61	3.65	19.6%	3.9%	47.4%	39.5%	21.1%

Gonzales has one of the toughest tasks in all of baseball, he’s a lefty that has to face the Yankees in Yankee Stadium. Even though he’s pitched well so far this season — 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%, he offers more risk than upside in this matchup. The Yankees are loaded with right-handed power. In fact, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .409 against southpaws this season. Do you know how insane that is? There are a handful of teams that don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA over .400 and the Yankees have six of them in tonight’s lineup alone.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gonzales in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Domingo German
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%
	2018	7	3.51	5.23	27.8%	9.3%	39.3%	37.1%	15.7%
	L14	3	3.18	4.82	28.2%	5.1%	36.0%	42.0%	16.0%

German may have a high ERA, but all the signs are pointing in the right direction. In his seven starts (and a few relief appearances) this season, he owns a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. Sure, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but it’s hard to complain about a pitcher that is this cheap with this type of upside. The issue tonight isn’t his talent, it’s his matchup against the Mariners, whose projected lineup has a .354 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: In a smaller slate, German would have more appeal.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a favorable ballpark shift playing in New York, but are large underdogs with a fairly low implied run total. Their matchup against Domingo German is fairly easy to break down, as he has some serious reverse splits this season. He has held lefties to a .264 xwOBA, while allowing a .342 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to righties. Jean Segura (.338 xwOBA), Mitch Haniger (.421 xwOBA), and Nelson Cruz (.391 xwOBA) are all viable one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.274	0.200	0.070	17.2%	1.7%	16.7%	53.7%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.338	0.297	0.149	30.7%	3.7%	12.6%	54.5%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,800	SS	$8,900
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.421	0.379	0.272	41.4%	11.8%	23.7%	41.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.391	0.488	0.215	37.9%	6.3%	19.3%	46.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,100
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.341	0.322	0.196	41.5%	5.6%	19.0%	36.1%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,500
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.366	0.378	0.216	39.1%	3.3%	21.6%	42.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	3B	$7,300
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.365	0.400	0.171	35.2%	14.5%	12.7%	38.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.355	0.323	0.272	44.8%	4.1%	38.2%	40.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.335	0.231	0.125	27.3%	14.0%	18.0%	45.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700	LF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.354	0.335	0.187	35.0%	7.2%	20.2%	44.3%

Elite Plays – Jean Segura (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura (Cash), Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Marco Gonzales will need his A-game tonight, as he takes on a right-handed heavy Yankees’ team in a home run-friendly ballpark. On the season, Gonzales has allowed a .313 xwOBA to lefties and a .334 xwOBA to righties. Given the power in this lineup, the Yankees are always a viable stack in tournaments. The one through four stack is on my radar for both FanDuel and DraftKings, as Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez all boast a .425+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.438	0.392	0.259	48.9%	12.7%	15.9%	29.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,400
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.425	0.359	0.206	47.2%	21.0%	33.3%	36.1%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,700
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.485	0.321	0.446	60.4%	8.2%	26.0%	33.3%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,000	RF	$10,000
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.432	0.245	0.347	30.6%	19.7%	21.3%	38.9%	C	$3,500	C	$4,000	C	$7,600
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.319	0.382	0.233	34.7%	4.6%	18.5%	49.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.270	0.368	0.129	24.1%	8.8%	11.8%	46.2%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,000
7	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.217	0.227	0.033	34.8%	0.0%	23.3%	39.1%	1B	$2,200	1B/2B	$3,200	2B	$6,800
8	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.693	0.273	0.000	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,300
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.401	0.340	0.318	50.0%	8.3%	25.0%	28.1%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
	Team Averages		0.409	0.323	0.219	36.7%	20.4%	19.5%	33.4%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Philadelphia
			Luke Weaver							Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-119							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.370	33.1%	8.3%	16.0%	40.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.305	31.4%	8.5%	27.4%	36.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.303	35.5%	8.1%	24.4%	45.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.277	33.0%	8.0%	29.1%	43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	10	3.29	3.88	28.6%	6.8%	49.4%	25.9%	19.1%
	2018	14	4.28	4.52	20.3%	8.2%	42.7%	34.2%	18.7%
	L14	2	5.25	6.97	13.7%	11.8%	44.7%	44.7%	13.2%

I’ve held out hope for Weaver all season and it hasn’t been too kind on my bankroll. In his 14 starts, he has a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He’s not inducing as many ground balls this season and he is allowing more hard contact. While he draws a favorable strikeout matchup against the Phillies, I’m not taking the bait again until I see Weaver flash some form. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog with the total set at 8.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Weaver isn’t the worst play on the board, but I’ll have exactly zero shares in this slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$16,700
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%
	2018	14	3.45	4.74	28.3%	8.3%	39.6%	32.2%	16.6%
	L14	2	4.09	10.45	22.7%	9.1%	46.4%	46.7%	16.7%

Velasquez will try to repeat what Nick Pivetta did last night against the Cardinals. Hopefully someone took my advice of playing both Pivetta and Matt Carpenter in the same lineup, as they both managed to have big outings despite facing each other. Velasquez has a high ERA, but an attractive 3.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% on the season. Much like last night with Pivetta, this is a great spot for Velasquez. He has held righties to a .277 xwOBA with a 29% strikeout rate and he will likely face at least seven of them tonight against the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is an elite tournament play.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are in a similar position as last night. They are facing a right-handed pitcher that has been dominant against right-handed hitters. This doesn’t exactly bode well for a right-handed heavy offense. Once again, there is only one hitter on my radar from St. Louis and once again that hitter is Matt Carpenter. On the season, he has a .405 xwOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.405	0.381	0.197	48.5%	12.4%	24.8%	22.4%	3B	$3,700	2B/3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.367	0.359	0.167	46.6%	11.0%	25.7%	50.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,100
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.430	0.474	0.212	42.2%	8.3%	13.9%	49.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.372	0.537	0.141	46.5%	5.7%	18.9%	47.2%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,500
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.353	0.330	0.148	48.0%	5.6%	14.4%	47.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.263	0.234	0.084	36.4%	6.1%	26.1%	39.0%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
7	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.295	0.223	0.135	36.3%	11.2%	18.4%	36.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300
8	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.254	0.266	0.054	38.6%	3.9%	22.1%	59.6%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
9	Luke Weaver	RIGHT	0.139	0.419	0.000	0.0%	5.3%	42.1%	83.3%	P	$6,500	P	$8,000	P	$15,400
	Team Averages		0.320	0.358	0.126	38.1%	7.7%	22.9%	48.2%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and are facing Luke Weaver, who has struggled against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .370 xwOBA with a 33% hard contact rate to lefties. This narrows down our list of potential targets to Cesar Hernandez (stolen base upside), Carlos Santana (.389 xwOBA), and Nick Williams (.393 xwOBA), who all have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.324	0.302	0.151	24.8%	13.5%	24.7%	42.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.397	0.457	0.235	35.4%	13.6%	29.4%	30.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,400
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.307	0.234	0.137	25.2%	8.3%	21.2%	42.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,300
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.389	0.295	0.228	35.3%	19.0%	14.5%	37.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.304	0.301	0.150	23.9%	4.3%	17.9%	53.2%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.393	0.365	0.258	32.2%	9.0%	24.6%	46.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,600
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.272	0.273	0.138	30.3%	3.3%	40.7%	53.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
8	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.227	0.435	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	29.4%	90.0%	P	$8,800	P	$8,600	P	$16,700
9	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.300	0.358	0.149	23.5%	7.1%	28.6%	40.8%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.324	0.336	0.161	28.4%	8.7%	25.7%	48.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Toronto
			Mike Soroka							Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.220	0.314	24.2%	6.3%	25.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.346	41.9%	6.5%	22.6%	36.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.368	0.361	31.3%	4.9%	17.1%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.372	0.365	40.7%	11.9%	19.9%	43.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Soroka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$17,300
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30

	2018	4	3.60	2.57	21.4%	5.6%	45.3%	27.7%	15.4%
	L14	1	3.62	0.00	20.0%	5.0%	53.3%	33.3%	13.3%

Soroka is a talented young pitcher that finds himself in a difficult spot tonight. He’s not only pitching on the road against a talented offense, but he’s pitching under American League rules, which means he won’t get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. His numbers are encouraging — 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%, but he’s an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. There is more risk than potential reward for Soroka tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Soroka in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	2018	12	4.61	5.71	20.5%	10.7%	41.7%	41.0%	14.0%
	L14	2	5.09	4.09	20.8%	14.6%	38.7%	45.2%	12.9%

Garcia is a form pitcher that hasn’t been able to find much of it so far this season. In 12 starts, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. His hard contact rate (41%) is nearly as high as his ground ball rate (42%), which is always a red flag for a pitcher. It doesn’t help that he is facing a Braves’ offense that mashes left-handed pitching. Even without Ronald Acuna, their projected lineup has a .354 xwOBA, a 40% hard contact rate, and a strikeout rate of only 18% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia is an easy fade in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto, they draw a favorable matchup against Jaime Garcia, and they get to use the DH in this series. All positives for the Braves’ offense. On the season, Jaime Garcia has allowed a .346+ xwOBA and a 41%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers, and Kurt Suzuki all boast a .365+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. The Braves aren’t my top stack of the slate, but they are on the short list of potential targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.367	0.303	0.267	43.0%	4.2%	12.6%	37.2%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,700	2B	$8,900
2	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.306	0.345	0.239	45.2%	8.0%	30.0%	36.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.439	0.444	0.319	40.0%	9.4%	18.9%	38.7%	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,600	1B	$10,900
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.348	0.382	0.176	38.4%	8.1%	14.4%	45.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,400
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.466	0.369	0.233	56.5%	20.0%	17.5%	43.5%	C	$3,400	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.395	0.312	0.238	41.7%	8.7%	13.0%	41.7%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,300
7	Charlie Culberson	RIGHT	0.263	0.242	0.100	26.8%	5.7%	17.0%	62.5%	SS	$2,200	3B/OF	$2,900	SS	$5,500
8	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.255	0.184	0.026	26.6%	7.1%	16.5%	53.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
9	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.343	0.291	0.189	37.2%	5.4%	17.9%	37.2%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,200	3B	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.354	0.319	0.199	39.5%	8.5%	17.5%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Tyler Flowers (DK), Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Dansby Swanson, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a boom or bust matchup against Mike Soroka, who is only making his fifth career major league start. The sample size is small, but Soroka has had reverse-splits thus far, allowing a .361 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. I fully expect the Blue Jays to get overlooked tonight in tournaments, which makes them an attractive target as a full stack or as one-off targets. Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Teoscar Hernandez all boast a .365+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.365	0.353	0.199	39.0%	14.5%	29.5%	31.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,700
2	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.378	0.291	0.217	34.7%	18.4%	26.3%	35.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
3	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.388	0.333	0.241	38.3%	5.3%	23.0%	37.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,000
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.343	0.333	0.176	29.6%	7.0%	15.7%	43.0%	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$4,100	2B	$8,300
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.348	0.242	0.170	35.2%	5.1%	20.0%	40.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.311	0.311	0.179	32.9%	14.3%	25.0%	47.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.327	0.309	0.261	39.6%	7.7%	28.2%	45.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.361	0.328	0.217	38.1%	4.1%	14.9%	41.2%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.271	0.411	0.095	20.0%	5.4%	26.1%	63.3%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.344	0.323	0.195	34.2%	9.1%	23.2%	42.9%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 19th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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