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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-31 01:19:01

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Toronto at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Sam Gaviglio bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-185 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.372 31.8% 10.3% 13.8% 40.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.290 31.3% 7.1% 47.6% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.246 0.259 31.6% 2.9% 40.0% 52.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.298 29.5% 8.4% 23.7% 42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sam Gaviglio
sam-gaviglio-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.96 4.36 15.7% 8.3% 49.4% 31.5% 15.7%
2018 2 3.10 2.30 28.1% 6.3% 46.3% 31.7% 17.1%
L14 2 3.36 2.38 26.1% 6.5% 51.6% 35.5% 16.1%

There are five early games on the schedule, but only three are included in the early slate on FanDuel and only four are included in the early slate on DraftKings. Gaviglio has pitched well in the minors and in the majors this season, but is only a year away from posting a 4.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board, as he squares off against the Red Sox in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Pitching is surprisingly stacked in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in both cash games and tournaments.

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,100
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 10 3.47 4.02 28.0% 8.2% 42.1% 29.7% 17.2%
L14 3 3.42 2.76 24.3% 4.1% 38.5% 26.9% 15.4%

Rodriguez has taken a step forward this season, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, but he induces a lot of lazy fly ball outs. He has a nice track record against this current Blue Jays’ roster, holding them to a .309 wOBA with 24 strikeouts in 110 plate appearances. He’ll likely face eight or nine right-handed hitters today, but he has held righties to a .298 xwOBA and a 30% hard contact rate this season.

Quick Breakdown: While I prefer Kluber and Reyes over Rodriguez, he’s still viable as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but draw a difficult matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Teoscar Hernandez and Justin Smoak are intriguing one-off targets in tournaments, as they both own a .340+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.371 0.330 0.083 57.1% 20.0% 33.3% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.293 0.283 0.183 38.0% 4.5% 18.2% 38.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.367 0.332 0.257 32.3% 8.9% 11.4% 37.1% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $4,000 2B $7,200
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.344 0.418 0.159 27.7% 10.8% 23.0% 51.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.407 0.334 0.200 37.5% 8.3% 25.0% 45.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 0.312 0.036 30.0% 19.4% 22.2% 60.0% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,900
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.295 0.539 0.118 40.0% 10.3% 25.6% 52.0% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,500
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.400 0.278 0.368 41.2% 0.0% 10.5% 47.1% 2B $2,400 2B $3,200 2B $6,800
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.362 0.205 0.250 45.0% 9.7% 25.8% 35.0% C $2,300 C $3,500 C $6,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Mookie Betts is still dealing with tightness in his right side, but could return to the lineup today against Sam Gaviglio. Either way, the Red Sox are one of the top offenses to target here in the early slate. In his career, Gaviglio has allowed a .340 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The Red Sox are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and each of the first six batters in their projected lineup has a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.375 0.436 0.255 28.2% 13.1% 12.5% 34.4% OF $4,400 OF $5,200 LF $10,300
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.387 0.358 0.256 38.7% 2.4% 20.2% 46.2% SS $3,900 SS $4,200 SS $8,300
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.469 0.409 0.356 39.2% 10.8% 16.7% 40.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.483 0.526 0.392 51.7% 9.8% 22.5% 44.8% OF $4,600 OF $5,500 RF $11,000
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.359 0.361 0.187 41.4% 9.0% 24.6% 43.6% 3B $3,600 3B $3,800 3B $7,400
6 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.370 0.312 0.000 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% 25.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.343 0.273 0.156 24.6% 9.7% 11.1% 49.1% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,500
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.278 0.280 0.095 31.0% 4.4% 26.7% 41.4% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,800
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.326 0.304 0.140 34.6% 10.5% 24.2% 46.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-300 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.352 32.6% 11.8% 12.6% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.250 0.268 33.7% 4.5% 29.1% 46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.354 26.1% 9.0% 20.3% 33.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.246 0.316 38.0% 2.4% 23.6% 50.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9%
2018 10 5.19 2.93 16.7% 10.3% 35.0% 29.3% 25.4%
L14 3 5.08 4.24 15.7% 10.0% 48.0% 19.6% 25.5%

Lopez has an ERA under three, but we know better than to think that it’s sustainable. In ten starts, he has a 5.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%, a walk rate of 10%, and a ground ball rate of only 35%. He has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season and he draws an awful matchup against the Indians in Cleveland. To make matters worse, run support will be limited with Corey Kluber pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $12,200 Salary: $24,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4%
2018 11 2.99 2.17 26.1% 3.3% 48.8% 36.2% 17.6%
L14 2 1.98 1.35 32.1% 0.0% 55.9% 48.6% 11.4%

Kluber is the top pitching option of the early slate and it’s not particularly close. While Alex Reyes, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Patrick Corbin are all strong plays, Kluber is on another tier all by himself. In 11 starts this season, he owns a 2.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 3%. Jose Abreu has gotten the best of Kluber in the past, but the rest of the White Sox have struggled against him. He’s a massive favorite and an elite play in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber offers the highest floor and ceiling combination of any pitcher in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have the worst matchup of the slate. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. The one and only hitter that deserves consideration here is Jose Abreu. For whatever reason, he sees Kluber’s pitches as well as anyone. In his career, Abreu is 16-for-35 with five home runs and three double against Kluber.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.400 0.263 0.250 42.9% 12.0% 33.8% 27.6% 2B $3,500 2B $3,800 2B $7,300
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.342 0.308 0.155 28.5% 2.6% 13.9% 47.9% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 2B $6,600
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.435 0.422 0.224 40.3% 7.1% 14.7% 40.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.387 0.396 0.247 37.9% 1.3% 24.4% 43.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
5 Matt Skole LEFT 1.204 0.903 1.500 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1B $2,000 1B/3B $3,200 1B $6,800
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.294 0.334 0.189 22.7% 8.3% 24.8% 45.8% SS $3,600 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
7 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.232 0.230 0.070 14.8% 8.2% 27.8% 45.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
8 Charlie Tilson LEFT 0.177 0.177 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 9.1% 44.4% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
9 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.308 0.308 0.089 29.3% 13.8% 23.1% 36.6% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians are an offense that I love to stack because they never seem to garner the ownership that they deserve. The stack is certainly expensive, but they are facing a fly-ball pitcher in a ballpark that benefits left-handed power. On the season, Reynaldo Lopez has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, and Yonder Alonso all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.412 0.346 0.268 39.5% 9.3% 21.7% 29.9% SS $4,500 SS $4,900 SS $9,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.412 0.411 0.239 39.6% 6.5% 11.4% 44.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.405 0.386 0.333 30.1% 16.1% 10.3% 36.3% 3B $4,500 3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.364 0.427 0.256 36.1% 6.5% 28.3% 37.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.384 0.379 0.236 37.6% 9.5% 22.6% 40.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.237 0.235 0.056 20.0% 5.0% 15.0% 53.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.352 0.431 0.063 38.4% 10.0% 19.4% 34.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.252 0.224 0.093 40.0% 11.3% 40.3% 48.3% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $5,000
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.266 0.309 0.143 37.0% 6.7% 33.3% 58.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET

St. Louis Milwaukee
stlouismlb Alex Reyes milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.348 37.7% 13.0% 23.2% 42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.348 50.8% 6.5% 20.7% 34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Reyes
alex-reyes-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Happy Alex Reyes day everyone. He is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and a quick glance at his numbers shows why. In his last season at the Triple-A level, he posted a 32% strikeout rate. In his four minor league starts this season, he has been absolutely filthy. He consistently throws in the high 90s and he works in a number of offspeed pitches. Don’t be the one that fades Reyes at this price point. A few weeks from now, we’ll be wondering why Reyes was ever this cheap.

Quick Breakdown: Reyes is an elite play in all formats.

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 5.23 5.12 21.3% 13.7% 33.5% 33.5% 18.5%
2018 9 4.40 2.98 22.0% 10.0% 38.8% 43.9% 16.7%
L14 2 4.97 2.61 17.1% 4.9% 28.1% 59.4% 12.5%

Guerra has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. While these are better numbers than a lot of pitchers have, they aren’t exactly ideal for DFS. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He comes into today’s game as a small underdog with the total set at 9.0 runs. The Cardinals do have a high strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but there are four better pitching options in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Milwaukee and they draw an exploitable matchup against Junior Guerra, who has allowed a .348+ xwOBA and a 38%+ hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. The luck has finally turned for Matt Carpenter and he is now firing on all cylinders. He is still too cheap across the industry and remains an elite play in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.409 0.458 0.213 50.0% 13.1% 26.3% 23.4% 3B $3,800 2B/3B $3,900 3B $7,600
2 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.422 0.371 0.157 37.1% 8.1% 14.0% 53.0% 1B $3,600 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
3 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.379 0.293 0.211 43.3% 13.6% 27.9% 47.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.339 0.315 0.072 44.5% 5.6% 21.0% 50.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,900
5 Tyler O’Neill RIGHT 0.401 0.413 0.333 44.4% 3.0% 39.4% 22.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,400 LF $8,100
6 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.301 0.261 0.085 38.8% 7.7% 28.2% 36.7% SS $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.268 0.220 0.137 25.9% 6.8% 16.9% 53.2% 2B $2,200 2B $2,900 2B $5,900
8 Francisco Pena RIGHT 0.251 0.275 0.100 28.2% 1.9% 22.6% 51.3% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,500
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.023 0.030 0.000 9.1% 0.0% 31.3% 37.5% P $8,500 P $9,300 P $17,800

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tyler O’Neill

Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers are the first team this season to face Alex Reyes, who is projected to be one of the best pitchers in baseball for many years to come. I typically like to take a wait and see approach in these situations, but I will be putting all of my eggs in the Reyes basket. He’s far from a sure thing in his first start of the season, but I’ll take my chances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.351 0.369 0.120 39.5% 15.8% 19.9% 56.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.415 0.406 0.220 46.2% 10.5% 20.3% 45.1% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 CF $8,900
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.423 0.395 0.253 44.0% 7.1% 25.0% 25.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.445 0.445 0.355 41.2% 12.4% 16.8% 33.3% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 3B $9,000
5 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.301 0.344 0.158 29.7% 4.6% 26.9% 45.9% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,900 LF $7,300
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.263 0.348 0.085 34.2% 6.3% 31.3% 64.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.292 0.335 0.134 34.6% 4.8% 16.3% 39.5% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,900
8 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.391 0.386 0.355 52.2% 5.9% 26.5% 27.3% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,500 2B $6,900
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.008 0.038 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 50.0% P $7,100 P $5,500 P $11,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Cincinnati Arizona
cincinnatimlb Sal Romano arizonamlb Patrick Corbin
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.424 0.411 37.1% 12.3% 13.1% 39.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.265 31.0% 13.0% 33.3% 48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.314 31.2% 10.8% 17.7% 54.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.279 43.1% 5.6% 32.6% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
salvatore-romano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.72 4.45 19.0% 9.6% 50.4% 32.6% 21.5%
2018 11 5.25 5.89 15.5% 11.5% 47.0% 34.1% 22.5%
L14 2 5.72 10.45 20.4% 18.5% 48.5% 30.3% 21.2%

Once again, this game is featured in the early slate on DraftKings, but not in the early slate on FanDuel. Romano has not pitched well in his 11 starts this season, posting a 5.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 12%. The Diamondbacks haven’t been great offensively this season, but should be able to knock around Romano a bit.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Romano in all formats.

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.12 4.03 21.6% 7.4% 50.4% 31.6% 18.5%
2018 11 2.80 2.47 32.7% 7.1% 46.2% 40.9% 15.7%
L14 2 3.96 2.19 26.0% 10.0% 35.5% 45.2% 12.9%

Corbin is having a career season, posting a 2.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33%. He has cooled off a bit in his last few starts, but his numbers during that stretch are still well above the major league average. He draws a decent matchup against the Reds, whose projected lineup has a .299 xwOBA and a 21% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. The issue with Corbin is that he’s not as good of a play as Corey Kluber and he doesn’t offer as good of value as Alex Reyes.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is viable, but I’ll have more exposure to Reyes and Kluber.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a difficult matchup against Patrick Corbin in Chase Field. The roof will be closed, which does tend to limit run production. On the season, Corbin has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. Eugenio Suarez has a .491 xwOBA against southpaws this season and is the one Reds’ hitter that is worth a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.296 0.341 0.031 34.6% 15.4% 15.4% 42.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.357 0.248 0.185 40.0% 12.9% 22.6% 60.0% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,900
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.374 0.361 0.131 42.6% 16.0% 18.7% 48.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 1B $8,100
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.283 0.346 0.182 42.1% 1.8% 31.6% 35.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $8,900
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.491 0.347 0.469 64.0% 23.8% 16.7% 40.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,300 3B $8,100
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.349 0.324 0.029 43.8% 2.6% 7.9% 59.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.240 0.313 0.032 18.3% 3.0% 6.1% 44.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,400
8 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.052 0.252 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 33.3% 40.0% P $7,800 P $7,000 P $13,600
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.248 0.191 0.184 20.7% 7.5% 37.7% 17.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

Sal Romano is a hittable fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a massive .411 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Daniel Descalso are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.361 0.237 0.205 46.5% 9.3% 18.6% 51.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
2 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.304 0.283 0.086 38.8% 12.8% 33.5% 45.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.358 0.382 0.154 50.0% 11.1% 31.1% 46.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 3B $8,400
4 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.367 0.297 0.215 39.0% 15.3% 21.4% 30.5% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,300 3B $6,700
5 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.282 0.329 0.078 26.8% 6.5% 14.5% 54.2% 2B $2,300 2B $2,800 SS $5,700
6 Socrates Brito LEFT 0.301 0.276 0.000 55.6% 0.0% 18.2% 44.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.256 0.257 0.087 46.7% 11.5% 50.0% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.287 0.315 0.144 30.1% 8.1% 24.4% 32.1% SS $2,600 SS $3,400 SS $6,700
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.000 0.218 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 77.8% 0.0% P $7,900 P $8,000 P $15,100

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Ketel Marte

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Houston NY Yankees
houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-190 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.290 30.0% 5.2% 25.9% 55.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.308 41.1% 10.5% 36.2% 43.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.305 29.3% 6.6% 16.7% 57.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.303 29.4% 5.2% 25.0% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dallas Keuchel
dallas-keuchel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 23 3.61 2.90 21.4% 8.1% 66.8% 24.7% 25.4%
2018 11 3.83 3.39 18.6% 6.3% 56.8% 29.4% 26.6%
L14 2 3.79 4.91 16.3% 6.1% 60.5% 31.6% 23.7%

This game is in no-mans land in terms of the start time. For that reason, it’s not included in the early slates or in the main slates. We’ll cover it quickly for anyone playing the all-day or showdown slates. Keuchel continues to be a better real life pitcher than daily fantasy pitcher. He has an elite ground ball rate and an elite soft contact rate, which is why it’s so difficult to score runs against him. The missing ingredient for fantasy production is a high strikeout rate. On the season, he has a 19% k-rate, which is below the major league average. Limiting mistakes against this Yankees’ lineup is difficult, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Keuchel can be avoided in all formats and in all slates.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $10,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 11 3.14 2.28 29.2% 7.2% 47.7% 33.1% 20.6%
L14 2 4.53 3.00 22.0% 12.0% 43.8% 51.5% 9.1%

Severino deserves to be considered one of the game’s elite pitchers, but he rarely gets the recognition that he deserves. In his 11 starts this season, he has a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He has a high ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. While the Astros have one of the best offenses in baseball, their lineup is right-handed heavy, especially at the top of the order. On the season, Severino has held righties to a .303 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. He’s the preferred pitching option in this game, but there are better plays in the all-day slate.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is viable in the single-game showdown slate, but should be avoided in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have one of the most talented offenses in baseball and are playing in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the American League. The problem is a matchup against Luis Severino, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. He has a high ground ball rate, an elite strikeout rate, and good control. For the all-day slate, the Astros are one of the easiest fades on the board, especially at their price points. For the single-game slate, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa are decent option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.374 0.437 0.150 36.7% 6.4% 12.8% 44.9% 2B $4,300 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.402 0.453 0.173 38.9% 14.0% 13.5% 41.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.353 0.287 0.217 30.1% 9.2% 24.7% 46.0% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.272 0.282 0.077 28.6% 3.2% 12.0% 56.2% 1B $2,600 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.298 0.262 0.136 31.5% 10.3% 25.5% 42.5% 1B $2,500 1B/OF $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.309 0.449 0.182 38.3% 9.9% 28.7% 36.7% C $2,700 C $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.260 0.334 0.192 27.6% 10.3% 39.7% 44.8% C $2,500 C $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.391 0.406 0.179 38.5% 9.1% 9.1% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.175 0.208 0.136 28.1% 1.6% 44.3% 34.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa (single-game slate only)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are a team that is built to give left-handed pitchers trouble. Their three best hitters (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez) all boast a .410+ xwOBA against southpaws this season. Not to mention the fact that Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, and Tyler Austin have all mashed left-handed pitching this season. While I wouldn’t load up on Yankees’ hitters in the all-day slate, they are the preferred offense to target in the single-game showdown slate. A matchup against Dallas Keuchel is far from ideal, but it’s slightly better than a matchup against Luis Severino.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.398 0.373 0.150 37.1% 10.9% 13.0% 35.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.412 0.455 0.184 44.0% 25.4% 35.8% 28.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.512 0.327 0.481 62.5% 6.8% 25.4% 30.0% OF $4,500 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.430 0.383 0.325 33.3% 16.7% 20.8% 40.0% C $3,400 C $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.421 0.521 0.207 40.9% 9.4% 21.9% 36.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.270 0.207 0.151 21.3% 8.6% 10.3% 44.4% SS $3,700 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.432 0.386 0.318 40.0% 8.0% 30.0% 33.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.308 0.395 0.208 30.0% 5.8% 17.3% 50.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.238 0.305 0.038 38.1% 0.0% 19.2% 33.3% 1B $2,300 1B/2B $3,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (single-game slate only)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Tyler Austin (single-game slate only)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious