NFL First Look: Week 9 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-03 17:01:58

The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team		Home Team	Vegas Line	Over/Under	Date	Time	Stadium
Atlanta Falcons	at	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	ATL-3.5	51.0	Thu, Nov 3	8:25 PM	Raymond James Stadium
Dallas Cowboys	at	Cleveland Browns	DAL-7.5	48.5	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	FirstEnergy Stadium
Detroit Lions	at	Minnesota Vikings	MIN-6.0	41.0	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	U.S. Bank Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars	at	Kansas City Chiefs	KC -7.5	44.0	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	Arrowhead Stadium
New York Jets	at	Miami Dolphins	MIA-3.5	44.0	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	Sun Life Stadium
Philadelphia Eagles	at	New York Giants	NYG-2.5	43.0	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	MetLife Stadium
Pittsburgh Steelers	at	Baltimore Ravens	BAL-1.0	43.5	Sun, Nov 6	1:00 PM	M&T Bank Stadium
Carolina Panthers	at	Los Angeles Rams	CAR-3.0	44.5	Sun, Nov 6	4:05 PM	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
New Orleans Saints	at	San Francisco 49ers	NO -3.5	52.0	Sun, Nov 6	4:05 PM	Levi’s Stadium
Indianapolis Colts	at	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	54.0	Sun, Nov 6	4:25 PM	Lambeau Field
Tennessee Titans	at	San Diego Chargers	SD -4.5	47.0	Sun, Nov 6	4:25 PM	Qualcomm Stadium
Denver Broncos	at	Oakland Raiders	PICK0.0	44.0	Sun, Nov 6	8:30 PM	O.com Coliseum
Buffalo Bills	at	Seattle Seahawks	SEA-7.0	44.0	Mon, Nov 7	8:30 PM	CenturyLink Field

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Offense	Spread	Implied Total	Matchup	Total DVOA	vs. PASS	vs. RUSH	vs. RB (Pass)	vs. WR1	vs. WR2	vs. TE
Green Bay Packers	-7.5	30.8	Indianapolis	31	29	29	31	23	14	32
Dallas Cowboys	-7.5	28.0	at Cleveland	30	30	31	20	31	30	30
New Orleans Saints	-3.5	27.8	at San Francisco	23	20	30	6	32	11	8
Atlanta Falcons	-3.5	27.3	at Tampa Bay	20	19	16	29	20	22	5
San Diego Chargers	-4.5	25.8	Tennessee	22	24	9	30	12	20	17
Kansas City Chiefs	-7.5	25.8	Jacksonville	18	13	27	1	21	27	12
Seattle Seahawks	-7.0	25.5	Buffalo	17	18	15	14	30	12	22
San Francisco 49ers	+ 3.5	24.3	New Orleans	29	28	28	32	7	28	25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+ 3.5	23.8	Atlanta	26	22	21	26	18	10	18
Carolina Panthers	-3.0	23.8	at Los Angeles	11	15	8	5	9	29	11
Miami Dolphins	-3.5	23.8	N.Y. Jets	27	31	3	21	11	32	15
Minnesota Vikings	-6.0	23.5	Detroit	32	32	24	27	28	16	27
Indianapolis Colts	+ 7.5	23.3	at Green Bay	8	16	4	8	25	26	10
New York Giants	-2.5	22.8	Philadelphia	1	1	13	25	2	19	4
Baltimore Ravens	-1.0	22.3	Pittsburgh	25	21	22	13	26	13	13
Oakland Raiders	PICK0.0	22.0	Denver	2	2	14	19	1	1	6
Denver Broncos	PICK0.0	22.0	at Oakland	28	25	25	28	14	21	19
Tennessee Titans	+ 4.5	21.3	at San Diego	7	6	20	18	10	8	21
Pittsburgh Steelers	+ 1.0	21.3	at Baltimore	6	14	1	24	24	5	1
Los Angeles Rams	+ 3.0	20.8	Carolina	16	27	5	10	29	4	28
Cleveland Browns	+ 7.5	20.5	Dallas	14	17	7	15	8	6	31
New York Jets	+ 3.5	20.3	at Miami	13	10	17	4	27	2	14
Philadelphia Eagles	+ 2.5	20.3	at N.Y. Giants	10	9	12	7	3	23	9
Buffalo Bills	+ 7.0	18.5	at Seattle	3	5	2	11	6	24	26
Jacksonville Jaguars	+ 7.5	18.3	at Kansas City	9	7	23	9	16	9	23
Detroit Lions	+ 6.0	17.5	at Minnesota	5	4	11	23	15	3	7

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Offense	Spread	Implied Total	Matchup	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	-7.5	30.8	Indianapolis	30	30	14	25
Dallas Cowboys	-7.5	28.0	at Cleveland	31	24	26	28
New Orleans Saints	-3.5	27.8	at San Francisco	23	32	17	21
Atlanta Falcons	-3.5	27.3	at Tampa Bay	25	25	22	16
San Diego Chargers	-4.5	25.8	Tennessee	19	7	16	23
Kansas City Chiefs	-7.5	25.8	Jacksonville	13	27	21	3
Seattle Seahawks	-7.0	25.5	Buffalo	15	15	25	13
San Francisco 49ers	+ 3.5	24.3	New Orleans	18	28	20	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+ 3.5	23.8	Atlanta	26	31	19	30
Carolina Panthers	-3.0	23.8	at Los Angeles	21	9	30	15
Miami Dolphins	-3.5	23.8	N.Y. Jets	27	11	31	23
Minnesota Vikings	-6.0	23.5	Detroit	31	19	15	27
Indianapolis Colts	+ 7.5	23.3	at Green Bay	14	3	11	18
New York Giants	-2.5	22.8	Philadelphia	6	16	4	2
Baltimore Ravens	-1.0	22.3	Pittsburgh	16	26	9	20
Oakland Raiders	PICK0.0	22.0	Denver	1	14	2	8
Denver Broncos	PICK0.0	22.0	at Oakland	22	21	24	17
Tennessee Titans	+ 4.5	21.3	at San Diego	8	29	3	18
Pittsburgh Steelers	+ 1.0	21.3	at Baltimore	12	6	26	9
Los Angeles Rams	+ 3.0	20.8	Carolina	28	5	26	31
Cleveland Browns	+ 7.5	20.5	Dallas	17	10	18	28
New York Jets	+ 3.5	20.3	at Miami	20	1	29	10
Philadelphia Eagles	+ 2.5	20.3	at N.Y. Giants	2	20	13	14
Buffalo Bills	+ 7.0	18.5	at Seattle	7	2	6	10
Jacksonville Jaguars	+ 7.5	18.3	at Kansas City	11	13	22	6
Detroit Lions	+ 6.0	17.5	at Minnesota	5	18	1	12

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Offense	Matchup	Team Plays PG	Opp. Plays PG	Exp. Plays PG	Plays PG +/-	Team Pace	Opp. Pace	Exp. Pace	Game Pace
Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis	65.6	66.4	66.0	0.4	29.8	30.8	30.3	10
Dallas Cowboys	at Cleveland	67.0	63.4	65.2	-1.8	31.6	30.1	30.9	8
New Orleans Saints	at San Francisco	69.9	64.3	67.1	-2.8	28.8	25.6	27.2	13
Atlanta Falcons	at Tampa Bay	62.6	69.6	66.1	3.5	28.7	30.3	29.5	12
San Diego Chargers	Tennessee	65.0	63.9	64.4	-0.6	30.1	33.7	31.9	2
Kansas City Chiefs	Jacksonville	64.4	63.0	63.7	-0.7	30.6	29.4	30.0	6
Seattle Seahawks	Buffalo	62.9	60.0	61.4	-1.4	32.3	29.8	31.1	3
San Francisco 49ers	New Orleans	64.3	69.9	67.1	2.8	25.6	28.8	27.2	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta	69.6	62.6	66.1	-3.5	30.3	28.7	29.5	12
Carolina Panthers	at Los Angeles	67.9	61.1	64.5	-3.4	31.4	31.7	31.6	4
Miami Dolphins	N.Y. Jets	57.0	64.4	60.7	3.7	31.6	30.9	31.3	1
Minnesota Vikings	Detroit	63.4	59.4	61.4	-2.0	28.6	30.4	29.5	5
Indianapolis Colts	at Green Bay	66.4	65.6	66.0	-0.4	30.8	29.8	30.3	10
New York Giants	Philadelphia	61.1	61.7	61.4	0.3	27.3	31.6	29.5	7
Baltimore Ravens	Pittsburgh	68.9	64.1	66.5	-2.4	30.8	30.0	30.4	11
Oakland Raiders	Denver	65.9	63.3	64.6	-1.3	31.1	29.5	30.3	9
Denver Broncos	at Oakland	63.3	65.9	64.6	1.3	29.5	31.1	30.3	9
Tennessee Titans	at San Diego	63.9	65.0	64.4	0.6	33.7	30.1	31.9	2
Pittsburgh Steelers	at Baltimore	64.1	68.9	66.5	2.4	30.0	30.8	30.4	11
Los Angeles Rams	Carolina	61.1	67.9	64.5	3.4	31.7	31.4	31.6	4
Cleveland Browns	Dallas	63.4	67.0	65.2	1.8	30.1	31.6	30.9	8
New York Jets	at Miami	64.4	57.0	60.7	-3.7	30.9	31.6	31.3	1
Philadelphia Eagles	at N.Y. Giants	61.7	61.1	61.4	-0.3	31.6	27.3	29.5	7
Buffalo Bills	at Seattle	60.0	62.9	61.4	1.4	29.8	32.3	31.1	3
Jacksonville Jaguars	at Kansas City	63.0	64.4	63.7	0.7	29.4	30.6	30.0	6
Detroit Lions	at Minnesota	59.4	63.4	61.4	2.0	30.4	28.6	29.5	5

Projected Starters

Team	QB	RB	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	K
Green Bay Packers	Aaron Rodgers	Ty Montgomery	Jordy Nelson	Randall Cobb	Davante Adams	Jared Cook	Mason Crosby
Dallas Cowboys	Dak Prescott	Ezekiel Elliott	Dez Bryant	Terrance Williams	Cole Beasley	Jason Witten	Dan Bailey
New Orleans Saints	Drew Brees	Mark Ingram	Brandin Cooks	Willie Snead	Michael Thomas	Coby Fleener	Wil Lutz
Atlanta Falcons	Matt Ryan	Devonta Freeman	Julio Jones	Mohamed Sanu	Justin Hardy	Austin Hooper	Matt Bryant
San Diego Chargers	Philip Rivers	Melvin Gordon	Travis Benjamin	Dontrelle Inman	Griff Whalen	Antonio Gates	Josh Lambo
Kansas City Chiefs	Alex Smith	Spencer Ware	Jeremy Maclin	Chris Conley	Albert Wilson	Travis Kelce	Cairo Santos
Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco 49ers	Colin Kaepernick	Carlos Hyde	Torrey Smith	Quinton Patton	Jeremy Kerley	Vance McDonald	Phil Dawson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston	Peyton Barber	Mike Evans	Adam Humphries	Russell Shepard	Cameron Brate	Roberto Aguayo
Carolina Panthers	Cam Newton	Jonathan Stewart	Kelvin Benjamin	Ted Ginn	Devin Funchess	Greg Olsen	Graham Gano
Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	Jay Ajayi	Jarvis Landry	DeVante Parker	Kenny Stills	Jordan Cameron	Andrew Franks
Minnesota Vikings	Sam Bradford	Jerick McKinnon	Stefon Diggs	Adam Thielen	Cordarrelle Patterson	Kyle Rudolph	Blair Walsh
Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	Frank Gore	T.Y. Hilton	Donte Moncrief	Phillip Dorsett	Dwayne Allen	Adam Vinatieri
New York Giants	Eli Manning	Rashad Jennings	Odell Beckham Jr.	Sterling Shepard	Victor Cruz	Larry Donnell	Robbie Gould
Baltimore Ravens	Joe Flacco	Terrance West	Mike Wallace	Steve Smith	Kamar Aiken	Dennis Pitta	Justin Tucker
Oakland Raiders	Derek Carr	Latavius Murray	Amari Cooper	Michael Crabtree	Seth Roberts	Clive Walford	Sebastian Janikowski
Denver Broncos	Trevor Siemian	Devontae Booker	Demaryius Thomas	Emmanuel Sanders	Bennie Fowler	Virgil Green	Brandon McManus
Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota	DeMarco Murray	Rishard Matthews	Tajae Sharpe	Kendall Wright	Delanie Walker	Ryan Succop
Pittsburgh Steelers	Ben Roethlisberger	Le’Veon Bell	Antonio Brown	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Sammie Coates	Jesse James	Chris Boswell
Los Angeles Rams	Case Keenum	Todd Gurley	Kenny Britt	Tavon Austin	Brian Quick	Lance Kendricks	Greg Zuerlein
Cleveland Browns	Josh McCown	Isaiah Crowell	Terrelle Pryor	Andrew Hawkins	Ricardo Louis	Gary Barnidge	Cody Parkey
New York Jets	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Matt Forte	Brandon Marshall	Quincy Enunwa	Jalin Marshall	Kellen Davis	Nick Folk
Philadelphia Eagles	Carson Wentz	Ryan Mathews	Jordan Matthews	Nelson Agholor	Dorial Green-Beckham	Zach Ertz	Caleb Sturgis
Buffalo Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars	Blake Bortles	T.J. Yeldon	Allen Robinson	Allen Hurns	Marqise Lee	Julius Thomas	Jason Myers
Detroit Lions	Matthew Stafford	Theo Riddick	Golden Tate	Marvin Jones	Anquan Boldin	Eric Ebron	Matt Prater

First Look Legend

Term	Description
DVOA	Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking
vs. PASS	DVOA pass defense ranking
vs. RB (Run)	DVOA ranking against the run
vs. RB (Pass)	DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield
vs. WR1	DVOA ranking vs. WR1s
vs. WR2	DVOA ranking vs. WR2s
vs. WRTE	DVOA ranking vs. TEs
Team Plays PG	Average number of plays ran per game
Exp. Plays PG	Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another
Plays PG +/-	The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week
Team Pace	Situation-adj average seconds per play ran
Opp. Pace	Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent
Game Pace	Projected game pace (the higher the number, the faster the pace)