MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-06 20:14:24

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Atlanta at Colorado – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Colorado
			Brandon McCarthy							German Marquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-150							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.282	29.2%	6.2%	19.4%	41.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.303	31.5%	7.9%	18.3%	48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.289	25.0%	8.6%	18.3%	41.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.354	0.326	37.2%	6.8%	23.4%	41.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brandon McCarthy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 18	Salary Rank:		14 of 18	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.55	3.98	18.8%	7.0%	42.0%	27.7%	22.7%
	2018	1	4.50	3.38	20.8%	12.5%	33.3%	18.8%	18.8%

We have our first game of the season in Coors Field. If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, this park produces runs like unlike any other. Regardless of how good the Rockies’ offense has been, Coors Field has led the majors in run production in each of the last six years and will likely be atop that list again in 2018. The rule of thumb in Colorado is to avoid pitchers and to stack the offenses. Pitchers struggle in the altitude for two reasons — the ball travels farther in the thin air and they don’t quite get as much spin on their breaking pitches.

Quick Breakdown: Nothing against McCarthy, but I rarely play pitchers in Coors Field.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
German Marquez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 18	Salary Rank:		10 of 18	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.27	4.39	21.0%	7.0%	45.2%	34.5%	17.7%
	2018	1	5.51	0.00	18.2%	18.2%	50.0%	28.6%	21.4%

Even though I said to avoid using pitchers in this ballpark, Marquez has to be considered if you are playing the early-only slate on multi-pitcher sites. If we rule out Brandon McCarthy, then we are only left with three pitching options and one of them is on the road facing the Indians. Marquez doesn’t have overwhelming “stuff,” but he posted a 4.27 SIERA and a 21% strikeout rate last season. In other words, his numbers are good enough that we shouldn’t just write him off.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not a fan of using pitchers in Coors, but Marquez deserves consideration as an SP2 in the early two-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

When it comes to Coors Field, we shouldn’t be picky with our hitters. It’s the one park where we can throw splits and batting order out the window. If you are in the lineup, you deserve consideration as a play in DFS, it’s as simple as that. I’ve mentioned before that it’s fine to target a hitter or two against your starting pitcher in small slates. That’s going to be the play here in the early slate. Freddie Freeman and Preston Tucker are the top targets here, but you can make a case for any of the first six batters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.330	0.287	0.113	24.1%	6.3%	13.8%	43.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.314	0.300	0.156	29.9%	6.8%	16.6%	38.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.427	0.424	0.295	38.9%	15.6%	16.4%	33.2%	1B	$5,000	1B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.341	0.111	35.2%	11.4%	16.1%	46.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.345	0.327	0.204	30.9%	5.6%	13.2%	36.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.561	0.320	0.313	30.8%	0.0%	18.8%	38.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.270	0.288	0.085	27.4%	9.9%	21.8%	47.0%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.365	0.312	0.083	19.4%	9.3%	22.2%	57.1%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Brandon McCarthy	RIGHT	0.123	0.185	0.000	18.2%	11.1%	48.1%	57.1%	P	$6,400	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The total for this game is set at 10.5 runs. If you are new to fantasy baseball, this total will see high. However, it’s actually quite low for a game in Coors Field. It has less to do with the starting pitchers and more to do with the weather. It’s expected to be 34 degrees at first pitch and run production takes a big hit in cold weather. With that said, I will still be loading up on the Rockies. Brandon McCarthy doesn’t have a high enough fly ball or strikeout rate to succeed here. The only reason I’m not giving the Rockies a full GREEN to stack is the weather.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.424	0.374	0.302	41.4%	9.9%	19.6%	35.0%	OF	$5,300	OF	$5,800	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.320	0.321	0.073	28.0%	8.8%	14.5%	55.6%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.347	0.333	0.228	36.8%	9.1%	17.7%	36.9%	3B	$5,200	3B	$5,600	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.353	0.328	0.176	30.9%	12.4%	19.7%	45.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.329	0.313	0.161	36.9%	5.1%	14.8%	48.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.318	0.252	0.110	28.9%	6.5%	23.3%	61.8%	1B	$3,900	1B/OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.282	0.266	0.164	36.5%	7.9%	34.3%	34.6%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.353	0.333	0.241	38.0%	10.7%	28.6%	34.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.176	0.137	0.027	18.5%	0.0%	37.2%	81.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Cleveland
			Danny Duffy							Carlos Carrasco
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-220							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.202	0.237	18.4%	5.5%	24.8%	50.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.309	0.304	31.9%	6.1%	27.3%	44.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.328	33.2%	7.1%	20.8%	36.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.276	0.279	26.5%	5.2%	28.6%	44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Danny Duffy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 18	Salary Rank:		11 of 18	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.31	3.81	21.4%	6.7%	39.5%	29.8%	17.8%
	2018	1	3.83	11.25	25.0%	10.0%	23.1%	61.5%	0.0%

Duffy’s first start of the season was bittersweet. I warned everyone that his velocity was down in the second half of the season and that he was a fade against the White Sox. While the fade worked out, his advanced numbers actually looked pretty good. The velocity was still down, but his SIERA and strikeout rate were both solid. We should monitor Duffy closely over his next couple of starts. For today’s slate, I would rank him behind German Marquez for my SP2 in all formats. Preferably, we wouldn’t play either, but we have to work with the options given to us.

Quick Breakdown: This is a tough spot for Duffy — on the road against the Indians. Avoid in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$12,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 18	Salary Rank:		1 of 18	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.35	3.29	28.3%	5.8%	45.2%	29.3%	19.4%
	2018	1	3.73	7.94	17.4%	0.0%	31.6%	21.1%	10.5%

If you are playing the early slate, you can lock in Carrasco as your SP1. There are times when we can fade the chalk and times where you don’t want to get too cute. Fading Carrasco in a two-game slate that features Coors Field is getting a little too cute. He’s a dominant pitcher that draws a favorable matchup at home. The Royals haven’t been a high-strikeout offense over the last few seasons, but actually have five batters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate above 22% against right-handed pitching. Carrasco has a high floor and a high ceiling, even though he’s had some strange splits at home over the last two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Lock and load Carrasco as your SP1 for the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

There are only four offenses to target in the early slate, but we can cross the Royals off the list. The Indians are in a good spot offensively and we obviously have our first game in Coors Field. Since the beginning of last season, Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. The Royals have a low implied run total, but I suppose you use Mike Moustakas or Lucas Duda as a one-off target as leverage in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.327	0.316	0.092	28.1%	7.6%	18.7%	45.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.329	0.311	0.160	30.3%	4.3%	13.4%	37.6%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.354	0.354	0.268	33.1%	6.5%	15.9%	31.7%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.363	0.373	0.302	43.1%	13.7%	25.1%	27.6%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.266	0.294	0.071	32.0%	5.6%	23.4%	40.0%	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.210	0.253	0.062	31.0%	10.8%	31.1%	40.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.264	0.287	0.124	32.2%	7.4%	25.6%	40.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.254	0.259	0.097	25.8%	1.8%	16.4%	40.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.267	0.240	0.089	24.5%	5.3%	22.7%	32.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians could be the top offense to target in these two games. It’s going to be very cold in Colorado, which may limit the effectiveness of Coors Field. The Indians have a lot of firepower in their lineup and throughout his career, Danny Duffy has struggled with right-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, he has given up a .328 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact to righties. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion all boast a .357+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.375	0.357	0.221	41.0%	8.1%	13.0%	38.4%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.282	0.285	0.151	26.0%	8.0%	17.5%	45.5%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.390	0.357	0.250	35.9%	6.5%	10.8%	40.8%	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.364	0.399	0.205	37.2%	19.1%	21.8%	44.2%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.297	0.312	0.105	22.2%	7.6%	20.6%	39.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.310	0.329	0.263	38.2%	9.3%	24.4%	36.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.373	0.323	0.287	40.8%	10.4%	26.4%	42.7%	C	$2,700	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.291	0.276	0.124	20.2%	9.0%	20.3%	45.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.270	0.273	0.079	25.0%	4.9%	24.4%	60.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								NY Yankees
			Kevin Gausman							CC Sabathia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-170							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.332	31.0%	12.0%	21.5%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.267	14.3%	8.9%	20.4%	58.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.337	33.8%	6.3%	22.3%	44.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.319	30.0%	7.9%	19.0%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		7 of 18	Salary Rank:		16 of 18	Salary Rank:		11 of 18
	2017	34	4.41	4.68	21.9%	8.7%	42.7%	32.3%	18.2%
	2018	1	4.44	13.50	22.7%	9.1%	21.4%	46.7%	6.7%

Gausman was shelled in his first start of the season, but there were some promising signs toward the end of last year. He’s one of those pitchers that is really good when he’s locked in and really bad when he’s not. He can’t afford to make any mistakes tonight against the Yankees, who have one of the most intimidating lineups in all of baseball. This is not the spot to load up on Gausman, especially given the fact that he has had some reverse-splits over the last two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is going to have a tough time with this Yankees’ offense. He’s a fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		9 of 18	Salary Rank:		6 of 18	Salary Rank:		5 of 18
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%
	2018	1	3.96	1.80	18.2%	9.1%	50.0%	31.3%	25.0%

Sabathia used to be a pitcher that could overwhelm his opponents, but that’s no longer the case. He has re-invented himself and is now someone that pitches to contact. His biggest strength at this point of his career is his ability to induces soft contact. In 2017, his soft contact rate (24%) was nearly as high as his hard contact rate (27%), which is truly impressive. Sabathia has an excellent track record against the Orioles in his career and with a lack of pitching options in the main slate, makes for an intriguing play in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is cheap, he draws a decent matchup, and he should be in line for the win if he makes it through five innings. He’s viable in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but CC Sabathia isn’t a pitcher that I love picking on. Despite a below-average strikeout rate, he has been very effective against both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, holding them under a .320 xwOBA. Sabathia induces a lot of ground balls and lazy fly ball outs, which helps him pitch well even in this ballpark. The two batters that have had success against Sabathia in the past are Manny Machado and Adam Jones. Both are viable tournament plays if you are looking to fade Sabathia.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.337	0.331	0.196	36.5%	7.9%	27.6%	48.4%	3B	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,500	SS	$7,300
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.345	0.370	0.244	45.0%	6.5%	16.0%	40.3%	SS	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,200	3B	$8,400
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.397	0.378	0.293	39.6%	8.4%	24.1%	42.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,700
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.317	0.321	0.158	33.3%	6.9%	18.8%	44.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,300
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.312	0.314	0.126	33.9%	3.6%	25.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.271	0.306	0.116	32.9%	9.6%	39.8%	34.1%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,800
7	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.349	0.354	0.190	39.4%	13.9%	20.5%	45.5%	1B	$2,200	3B	$3,000	1B	$5,500
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.351	0.354	0.254	40.9%	4.5%	28.4%	38.6%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
9	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.330	0.315	0.183	31.8%	7.6%	25.8%	46.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,300	LF	$4,500

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Adam Jones (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (Cash), Adam Jones (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees should be one of the most popular offenses to target tonight. With a lack of elite arms on the mound, we have a lot of salary to spend on hitters. This plays right into the hand of a Yankees’ stack. Kevin Gausman is a fly-ball pitcher that hasn’t fared well against left or right-handed hitters. The Yankees are a great stack because they have a nice mix of high-contact and power hitters. The likes of Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius work hard to get on base and then the monster trio of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez drive them in.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.357	0.331	0.190	31.4%	11.0%	18.4%	42.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,200
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.435	0.439	0.351	44.2%	16.8%	30.6%	35.0%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,300	RF	$9,600
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.390	0.379	0.324	38.1%	11.0%	26.8%	44.6%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,400
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.369	0.294	0.249	27.3%	4.8%	11.1%	36.1%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,700	SS	$8,900
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.355	0.373	0.240	35.8%	6.2%	22.7%	42.7%	C	$3,800	C	$4,900	C	$9,500
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.362	0.363	0.190	34.4%	12.8%	16.6%	37.5%	1B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,700
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.333	0.312	0.190	32.3%	7.3%	19.8%	47.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,300
8	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.209	0.243	0.081	20.5%	7.5%	26.9%	51.2%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,700
9	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.324	0.331	0.273	38.9%	8.3%	41.7%	27.8%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,300

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Brandon Drury

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Pittsburgh
			Luis Castillo							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-105							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.278	0.261	34.2%	7.9%	25.3%	52.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.293	23.8%	7.3%	16.5%	48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.266	26.6%	9.4%	29.1%	63.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.331	34.2%	9.8%	19.1%	48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		8 of 18	Salary Rank:		5 of 18	Salary Rank:		4 of 18
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%
	2018	1	2.82	10.80	27.3%	4.6%	46.7%	40.0%	20.0%

Castillo is an exciting young pitcher. In 15 starts at the major league level last season, he posted a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Add in a ground ball rate close to 60% and we could have an elite pitcher in the making. It’s expected to be cold and rainy tonight in Pittsburgh. While that brings a potential delay or postponement, it is also bad for run production. Assuming we get the green light from Kevin Roth, Castillo makes an excellent play in all formats. The Pirates aren’t a high-strikeout offense, but we typically don’t worry as much about that when it comes to pitchers with elite strikeout rates.

Quick Breakdown: If this game is fine to play, Castillo makes for one of the best pitching options of the slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 18	Salary Rank:		8 of 18	Salary Rank:		7 of 18
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	1	8.42	0.00	5.0%	25.0%	57.1%	28.6%	28.6%

Williams isn’t a pitcher that we need to spend a lot of time on. He’ll be in play a few times this season, but mostly on shorter slates where we don’t have many options. He finished last season with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He does a nice job of limiting hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground, but that needs to be accompanied by a higher strikeout rate for him to have appeal in DFS. Even in a home start against the Reds, we should be able to find better arms to target tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

This is a tough environment for these two offenses. Not only is PNC Park better suited for pitchers than it is for hitters, but we are expecting some cold and rainy weather. While Trevor Williams isn’t a great play for DFS, he’s not a great pitcher to target hitters against. He has an above-average ground ball rate and a high soft contact rate. To make matters worse, he is a reverse-splits pitcher. As we know, the Reds’ best hitters are all left-handed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.429	0.363	0.250	36.3%	13.9%	20.5%	50.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,800
2	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.346	0.348	0.191	31.7%	12.6%	22.8%	38.5%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,500
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.430	0.433	0.251	37.4%	19.0%	10.4%	37.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,200	1B	$10,100
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.391	0.339	0.255	36.0%	6.3%	20.3%	39.8%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,600
5	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.332	0.349	0.269	39.8%	9.5%	24.0%	44.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,500
6	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.264	0.278	0.069	20.3%	3.4%	14.5%	43.7%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.328	0.333	0.136	34.8%	9.7%	16.0%	42.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.293	0.253	0.091	16.0%	8.6%	20.2%	46.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,900
9	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.063	0.133	0.000	5.6%	3.6%	32.1%	71.4%	P	$7,100	P	$8,700	P	$17,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are playing in the same conditions as the Reds, which isn’t ideal for run production. While they are playing at home, they have the more difficult matchups between the two teams. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, Luis Castillo held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA last season. With so many below-average arms taking the mound tonight, we can find better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.320	0.314	0.147	33.5%	4.9%	16.7%	33.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,200
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.320	0.321	0.171	28.2%	8.2%	12.4%	39.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,500
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.349	0.322	0.129	25.4%	6.9%	17.8%	48.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.343	0.325	0.207	32.7%	11.2%	19.9%	52.4%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,300
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.332	0.324	0.214	34.8%	6.1%	23.4%	39.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,800
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.318	0.324	0.124	32.1%	10.4%	20.4%	47.6%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.356	0.288	0.333	27.8%	10.0%	0.0%	33.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.305	0.302	0.145	27.0%	9.2%	15.6%	48.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,800
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.085	0.163	0.000	12.0%	4.9%	34.1%	60.0%	P	$6,200	P	$7,100	P	$14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Texas
			Marco Estrada							Matt Moore
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-105							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.268	23.4%	6.5%	21.5%	34.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.438	0.407	33.1%	9.1%	17.2%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.326	30.3%	10.7%	21.2%	27.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.334	36.2%	8.0%	19.6%	36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 18	Salary Rank:		7 of 18	Salary Rank:		6 of 18
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%
	2018	1	6.38	3.86	7.4%	11.1%	40.9%	27.3%	31.8%

Estrada is one of the most boom or bust pitchers in baseball. When he struggles with his command, we will see successful stacks against him. When he is throwing strikes, he tends to provide a lot of upside. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on a lot of soft and medium contact. When he doesn’t get it, he tends to give up a lot of home runs. The fact that he had more walks than strikeouts in his first start of the season is a huge red flag. We should want no part of Estrada on the road against the Rangers.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than upside here. Estrada can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Moore
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		12 of 18	Salary Rank:		12 of 18	Salary Rank:		9 of 18
	2017	31	4.86	5.52	18.7%	8.5%	37.7%	34.7%	15.9%
	2018	1	2.26	9.00	31.6%	0.0%	30.8%	69.2%	15.4%

Moore didn’t have a great year in San Francisco. He finished with a 4.86 SIERA and a strikeout rate below the league average. The worst part is that he pitched in a decent division and made half of his starts in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. He is now with the Rangers and has to pitch in the American League. His advanced statistics looked good in his first start, but I’m going to need a much bigger sample to start believing.

Quick Breakdown: Moore is an easy fade tonight against the Blue Jays.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have an exploitable matchup against Matt Moore and get to play in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. This game features a total of 10.0 runs and is basically set as a pick ‘em, so it sets up well to be a shootout. Moore is a low strikeout pitcher that struggles with both left and right-handed hitters. The Blue Jays’ offense looks a little different this season, but they still have plenty of firepower at the plate. This is a great stacking opportunity and I always give a small bump to road teams, as they are guaranteed ninth inning at best. Josh Donaldson is the highlighted play here, as he owns a .393 ISO and a 44% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.423	0.438	0.290	29.2%	11.4%	20.0%	37.5%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.434	0.401	0.393	43.9%	15.2%	21.9%	36.4%	3B	$4,600	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.418	0.399	0.231	36.6%	12.0%	12.7%	35.7%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.252	0.298	0.082	28.9%	7.4%	10.1%	46.3%	3B	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,400	2B	$6,400
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.308	0.304	0.228	33.8%	6.7%	24.0%	39.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	1B	$5,700
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.283	0.343	0.188	39.4%	8.2%	27.3%	31.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,000
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.271	0.329	0.123	34.1%	15.0%	27.5%	32.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.388	0.339	0.219	30.7%	6.3%	14.6%	39.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.267	0.268	0.052	22.9%	9.2%	16.9%	38.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Steve Pearce, Randal Grichuck, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

I never quite know what to do when Marco Estrada is on the mound, but this certainly sets up well for the Rangers. Estrada struggled in his first start of the season and the Rangers get to face him at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In terms of splits, Estrada has been tough against lefties, but allowed a .326 xwOBA to right-handed hitters last season. I’m not going to rule out the left-handed bats here though, as Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, and Nomar Mazara all have good power against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.336	0.372	0.186	40.3%	11.7%	22.3%	45.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,700
2	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.365	0.370	0.351	46.9%	13.7%	35.5%	28.9%	1B	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,500	1B	$9,000
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.344	0.305	0.168	30.2%	5.4%	14.2%	49.4%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,400
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.355	0.343	0.202	33.9%	8.3%	14.7%	43.5%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,100	3B	$5,700
5	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.330	0.331	0.188	35.5%	9.8%	20.3%	43.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	RF	$7,300
6	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.321	0.314	0.221	34.0%	9.5%	28.4%	43.2%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.294	0.305	0.215	38.8%	5.8%	24.8%	39.5%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
8	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.241	0.257	0.100	26.7%	10.1%	39.3%	40.0%	OF	$2,100	1B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,900
9	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.330	0.298	0.227	32.1%	13.4%	36.6%	42.9%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800

MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 6th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Atlanta at Colorado – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Adam Jones (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (Cash), Adam Jones (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Brandon Drury

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Steve Pearce, Randal Grichuck, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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