MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 14th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-14 18:19:53

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Michael Pineda has been scratched from his start today. Jordan Montgomery will start instead.

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Boston
			Michael Pineda							Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.309	33.9%	7.9%	27.2%	46.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.287	33.5%	9.3%	26.4%	42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.299	30.2%	5.1%	24.4%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.286	31.6%	8.8%	26.0%	46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Pineda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2016	32	3.40	4.82	27.4%	7.0%	45.8%	32.7%	17.2%
	2017	17	3.75	4.39	22.4%	5.1%	50.9%	30.2%	20.0%

Editor’s Note: Michael Pineda has been scratched from his start today. Jordan Montgomery will start instead.

Pineda is back to being the pitcher that has better advanced stats than actual results. We’ve been talking about positive regression for Pineda since the start of last season, but he continues to have a higher ERA than SIERA. The strikeout rate is solid, he gets a lot of ground balls, and he limits hard contact against him. For whatever reason, he just seems to make those one or two bad pitches each game that come back to haunt him. I’m still bullish on him overall, but will be avoiding him tonight against the Red Sox.

Quick Breakdown: When these teams meet up, there are typically a lot of runs scored.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		8 of 26	Salary Rank:		13 of 26	Salary Rank:		13 of 26
	2016	30	3.80	3.32	26.5%	9.3%	46.2%	31.5%	19.1%
	2017	17	3.93	3.60	25.5%	8.3%	43.4%	33.1%	22.8%

Pomeranz is quietly having a very nice season and he’s done it in a tough division and with half of his starts coming in Fenway Park. He currently boasts a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. Even though he’s not a ground ball pitcher, he still has an above-average soft contact rate. The issue here is obviously the matchup. The Yankees are one of the best offenses in baseball and they love to make the opposing pitcher work. They drive up pitch counts and draw a lot of walks. They also hit a lot of home runs (anyone see Aaron Judge in the Home Run Derby?).

Quick Breakdown: In a 15-game slate, we can find better options than Pomeranz against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a fairly difficult matchup against Drew Pomeranz. Even though they are playing in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined. The good news is that the Yankees are hoping to have Matt Holliday back in the lineup, which now gives them three of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws. This isn’t a spot to stack New York, but we can target a few of their hitters as one-offs or as part of two-man stacks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.274	0.272	0.098	24.2%	8.6%	19.1%	51.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.322	0.406	0.274	43.8%	15.0%	28.3%	40.6%	C	$3,200	C	$4,800	C	$9,300
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.450	0.451	0.342	46.5%	23.7%	30.9%	32.6%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.347	0.364	0.250	44.5%	11.6%	20.0%	45.3%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.267	0.258	0.078	23.8%	5.8%	17.8%	46.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
6	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.274	0.290	0.085	27.4%	6.7%	18.7%	45.2%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.342	0.286	0.125	21.7%	3.1%	10.2%	39.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.269	0.290	0.142	31.2%	5.6%	18.8%	48.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.286	0.274	0.028	24.2%	10.0%	12.5%	58.1%	2B	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Even though I plan to have zero exposure to Michael Pineda, I will also be avoiding the Red Sox offense for the most part. It’s hard to get excited about an offense that is facing a pitcher with a 22% strikeout rate that has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Boston does have a high implied run total though, so we can potentially look to Mookie Betts and Mitch Moreland as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.376	0.336	0.210	34.6%	8.1%	10.3%	41.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.348	0.325	0.122	31.3%	7.9%	9.9%	50.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.344	0.293	0.150	30.7%	7.4%	17.6%	47.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,100
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.319	0.366	0.197	39.2%	8.9%	22.6%	39.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.339	0.345	0.180	36.7%	9.2%	19.4%	47.6%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.363	0.345	0.201	38.7%	10.2%	15.3%	34.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,300
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.364	0.366	0.238	38.5%	10.8%	21.1%	44.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.256	0.251	0.065	27.1%	3.7%	22.1%	56.3%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Tzu-Wei Lin	LEFT	0.361	0.205	0.057	34.6%	16.7%	21.4%	40.0%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,200	SS	$4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Detroit
			Aaron Sanchez							Justin Verlander
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-123							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.342	32.2%	11.4%	21.6%	47.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.291	29.3%	9.5%	28.3%	30.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.283	0.303	28.2%	5.3%	17.7%	57.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.311	34.5%	6.2%	23.0%	36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		12 of 26	Salary Rank:		15 of 26	Salary Rank:		14 of 26
	2016	30	4.01	3.00	20.4%	8.0%	54.4%	30.3%	20.7%
	2017	6	5.49	4.85	15.1%	10.9%	43.7%	28.7%	27.6%

Sanchez showed some real promise last season, but has not been able to work his way around injuries this year. He has only made six starts and so far, it hasn’t been pretty. He currently owns a 5.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15% and a walk rate of 11%. His ground ball rate is down and he has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate this year. Until he can flash some form, Sanchez is an easy fade in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: In a difficult matchup against the Tigers on the road, avoid Sanchez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		6 of 26	Salary Rank:		6 of 26	Salary Rank:		6 of 26
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	33.7%	28.9%	19.7%
	2017	18	4.89	4.73	21.0%	10.9%	33.8%	37.7%	15.8%

Another pitcher that has failed to live up to expectations this season is Verlander. After many thought he was robbed of the Cy Young Award last season, he has had quite the hangover in 2017. In 18 starts, he has a 4.89 SIERA with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate of 38%. His strikeouts are down and he is inducing little to no soft contact. Until he can flash some form, he can be avoided in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is an easy fade in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a tough matchup in name, but Justin Verlander has actually been very hittable this season. He has a high walk rate and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 38% hard contact rate. The matchup also sets up well for a right-handed heavy lineup, as Verlander has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career. It’s worth noting that Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Jose Bautista all have at least two home runs off of Verlander.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.356	0.362	0.206	37.6%	15.9%	21.9%	36.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,800
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.338	0.327	0.173	30.2%	12.7%	25.5%	48.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.394	0.263	40.2%	14.8%	19.3%	39.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.345	0.370	0.241	39.9%	10.8%	29.7%	30.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.308	0.385	0.193	40.8%	7.8%	20.8%	48.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.328	0.344	0.188	33.9%	7.3%	17.3%	41.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.336	0.342	0.150	30.5%	9.1%	17.9%	45.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700	1B	$5,200
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.287	0.294	0.115	26.7%	5.1%	15.3%	47.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.260	0.272	0.142	29.4%	7.1%	20.9%	47.5%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,600	2B	$5,100

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers draw a boom or bust matchup against Aaron Sanchez. While he used to have an elite ground ball rate, that hasn’t been the case this season. In terms of his splits, Sanchez has allowed a .342 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .303 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Tigers may not have a lot of lefties, but this is still an intriguing stack and one that should fly under the radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.336	0.324	0.169	34.4%	7.2%	15.2%	33.3%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
2	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.376	0.405	0.218	49.0%	17.6%	33.5%	39.7%	C	$2,700	1B/C	$3,500	C	$6,900
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.340	0.348	0.229	39.7%	9.2%	28.3%	37.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.378	0.448	0.235	42.8%	10.2%	17.1%	41.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,400
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.374	0.397	0.236	41.5%	10.6%	25.5%	43.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
6	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.331	0.383	0.170	41.1%	8.4%	14.3%	37.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	1B	$6,000
7	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.348	0.377	0.190	41.7%	7.2%	25.2%	35.6%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
8	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.231	0.242	0.083	34.4%	3.9%	35.6%	42.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.271	0.256	0.073	19.0%	4.9%	12.7%	55.7%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,300	SS	$4,500

Elite Plays – Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Atlanta
			Taijuan Walker							R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-103							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.319	30.0%	9.3%	21.5%	43.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.336	28.3%	9.5%	15.1%	40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.318	31.6%	5.8%	19.8%	46.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.337	30.1%	8.2%	17.8%	47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Taijuan Walker
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		13 of 26	Salary Rank:		22 of 26	Salary Rank:		22 of 26
	2016	25	4.13	4.22	20.8%	6.5%	44.1%	28.6%	20.8%
	2017	14	4.55	3.65	20.2%	9.0%	47.3%	34.7%	14.1%

Walker has a low ERA, an average strikeout rate, and an above-average ground ball rate, but he has given up too much hard contact this season. The large difference between his ERA and SIERA suggests some regression in the second half of the season. For years, the Braves were a team that we could pick on with opposing pitchers, but that’s no longer the case. They have the sixth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season and we know their new ballpark is a lot more of a hitter’s park than their old one was.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Walker over R.A. Dickey, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		21 of 26	Salary Rank:		20 of 26
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	17	5.12	4.23	15.4%	8.9%	48.5%	28.1%	24.8%

Dickey is one of those low strikeout pitchers that relies on inducing soft and medium contact in order to avoid getting blown up in every start. His knuckleball still dances at times, but he’s not the same pitcher that he was when he was with the Mets. At this point in his career, he is just trying to give his team some innings and hope that they give him enough run support. The Diamondbacks do struggle offensively on the road, but that’s not enough to justify playing Dickey in cash games or tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Dickey is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

For one reason or another, R.A. Dickey has been a popular pitcher to stack against this season. While he may have a low strikeout rate and a high SIERA, he’s not a pitcher that gets blown up that often. In 17 starts, he has only allowed more than four earned runs twice. SunTrust Park is great for left-handed batters, which brings David Peralta and Jake Lamb to the forefront at their respective positions. A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt are also worth a look, but they are secondary plays at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.352	0.300	0.156	37.3%	7.8%	20.3%	42.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.342	0.315	0.161	36.5%	6.2%	17.3%	54.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.392	0.383	0.228	39.9%	14.0%	21.4%	45.0%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,900
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.389	0.378	0.282	40.1%	11.7%	23.6%	42.6%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
5	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.319	0.293	0.159	32.3%	4.3%	20.4%	47.9%	SS	$2,800	OF/SS	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.350	0.314	0.178	33.1%	7.0%	20.5%	48.9%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.346	0.332	0.176	33.0%	12.4%	18.8%	43.1%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,000	2B	$7,800
8	Chris Herrmann	LEFT	0.322	0.347	0.215	46.0%	10.6%	25.9%	41.9%	C	$2,300	C/OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,600
9	Taijuan Walker	RIGHT	0.200	0.184	0.000	14.3%	4.8%	28.6%	71.4%	P	$7,900	P	$6,500	P	$12,900

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

This may sound strange, but I actually prefer the Braves’ offense over the Diamondbacks’ offense. Their matchup doesn’t look great on paper, but Taijuan Walker has struggled with home runs in his career and we know this is a great ballpark for left-handed power. Do you know who bats from the left side and hits right-handed pitching well? Freddie Freeman and Matt Adams? Both make elite tournament plays in a slate where they should get overlooked.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.316	0.295	0.102	25.7%	7.9%	13.5%	43.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.326	0.307	0.134	28.0%	3.5%	12.1%	47.5%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,300
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.429	0.429	0.323	42.5%	15.1%	20.9%	28.2%	3B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.329	0.348	0.207	35.5%	4.9%	24.0%	41.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.340	0.358	0.141	34.1%	11.1%	16.5%	42.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.354	0.358	0.241	39.3%	8.0%	24.1%	33.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.357	0.342	0.153	42.9%	7.7%	25.3%	42.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.268	0.292	0.090	30.3%	9.3%	23.7%	50.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
9	R.A. Dickey	RIGHT	0.091	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	23.3%	77.3%	P	$7,400	P	$6,600	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Matt Adams (Cash), Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Chicago White Sox
			James Paxton							James Shields
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-150							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.287	27.0%	7.5%	16.5%	52.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.354	28.9%	11.5%	14.2%	42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.270	33.4%	6.2%	26.1%	45.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.359	38.8%	9.0%	19.2%	36.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Paxton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$19,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 26	Salary Rank:		3 of 26	Salary Rank:		3 of 26
	2016	20	3.54	3.79	22.9%	4.7%	48.1%	33.1%	14.1%
	2017	14	3.83	3.21	27.2%	9.0%	43.1%	31.0%	16.9%

Paxton got off to a blazing start this season before missing a month due to an injury. He had some rust in his first few starts back, but really picked it up right before the All-Star break. He has at least eight strikeouts in three of his last four outings. I’m bullish on Paxton the rest of the way, but will be taking a hard pass on him against the White Sox. Not only is he pitching on the road, but Chicago is ranked third in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I like Paxton’s potential run support here, but he is a little too expensive given his matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		24 of 26	Salary Rank:		24 of 26	Salary Rank:		24 of 26
	2016	33	5.12	5.85	16.4%	10.0%	40.4%	33.8%	15.3%
	2017	7	5.45	4.95	18.4%	11.7%	32.4%	34.2%	20.7%

Shields has picked up right where he left off a year ago. In seven starts this season, he has a 5.45 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate and a walk rate of 12%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a ton of hard contact. He is one of my favorite pitchers to stack against and that trend will continue on Friday night. It doesn’t help Shields’ cause that he is facing a talented Mariners’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Shields is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners may have the best matchup in the entire slate. James Shields has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. In the last two seasons, Shields has allowed a .354+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. When it comes to hard contact, he actually allows a 9% higher hard contact rate to righties than he does to lefties. You can make a case for every hitter in this lineup and a Mariners’ stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.382	0.334	0.175	29.4%	4.7%	13.4%	53.2%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,300
2	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.327	0.303	0.095	26.6%	9.6%	24.1%	39.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.384	0.398	0.260	38.9%	8.2%	12.1%	46.1%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.368	0.372	0.232	35.8%	8.4%	22.8%	43.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.366	0.400	0.211	40.2%	10.9%	14.8%	33.4%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.318	0.314	0.141	29.2%	7.0%	24.7%	45.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
7	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.356	0.338	0.200	38.0%	10.9%	21.8%	38.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.322	0.280	0.128	18.1%	8.1%	13.4%	48.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.312	0.313	0.236	35.2%	7.1%	37.5%	29.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,300

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Danny Valencia

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

We have conflicting forces in this matchup. We have a very good left-handed pitcher that is facing an offense that mashes southpaws. Something has to give in this matchup, but I’m not confident in either side. In full slates, we can afford to be picky with our selections and that’s exactly what I plan to do in this game. I will be avoiding both James Paxton and the White Sox offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.339	0.248	0.136	5.9%	8.0%	20.0%	47.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
2	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.364	0.296	0.192	32.2%	4.8%	14.9%	44.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.401	0.411	0.246	42.1%	8.5%	19.2%	45.7%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.348	0.351	0.284	33.9%	13.5%	25.1%	21.5%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
5	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.351	0.353	0.162	43.0%	6.7%	23.2%	54.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.370	0.323	0.260	29.4%	7.2%	31.3%	29.4%	3B	$3,000	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.332	0.302	0.112	35.7%	2.2%	27.2%	54.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
8	Kevan Smith	RIGHT	0.217	0.242	0.092	20.8%	0.0%	18.2%	61.5%	C	$2,600	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
9	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.247	0.251	0.103	17.2%	6.2%	21.7%	49.4%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,100	2B	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Houston
			Jose Berrios							Charlie Morton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-162							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.349	30.4%	11.1%	19.0%	40.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.310	31.6%	10.4%	28.7%	47.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.304	27.9%	7.9%	22.2%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.336	32.8%	8.9%	22.2%	57.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 26	Salary Rank:		14 of 26	Salary Rank:		14 of 26
	2016	14	5.36	8.02	17.4%	12.5%	38.0%	33.3%	18.2%
	2017	11	3.97	3.53	23.7%	6.5%	43.3%	25.0%	20.9%

Berrios is starting to become a household name in DFS and it won’t be long until he is a household name for casual baseball fans. He is one of the most talented young pitchers in the game and he has a curveball that can buckle the knees of any big league hitter. In 11 starts this season, he has a 3.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He is still underpriced for his upside, but that likely has something to do with his matchup against the Astros, who are ranked first in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: We can use him moving forward, but avoid Berrios in a matchup against the Astros.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26
	2016	4	3.56	4.15	26.8%	11.3%	62.8%	20.5%	15.9%
	2017	11	3.95	3.82	24.9%	9.2%	50.6%	35.3%	16.8%

Morton missed a month and a half with a lat injury, but looked decent in his first start back. He threw 95 pitches in that outing and shouldn’t be on a pitch count in Friday’s start against the Twins. Overall, Morton has had a nice season, posting a SIERA under 4.00 with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has always had an elite ground ball rate and he has completely changed as a pitcher now that he has an above-average strikeout rate to go with it. He draws a decent matchup against the Twins, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Morton isn’t a core play in this slate, but he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have two intriguing plays in their lineup. I don’t want to spoil it right away, but you can probably guess who I’m talking about. Their matchup against Charlie Morton isn’t great, but he has been a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .336 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. So, we want right-handed fly-ball hitters with good power against right-handed pitching. Have you figured out the two hitters that I’m talking about?

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.340	0.324	0.232	32.8%	9.4%	19.9%	38.4%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.330	0.322	0.139	29.0%	14.5%	23.5%	39.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.344	0.350	0.230	43.0%	10.8%	36.4%	34.9%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
4	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.356	0.321	0.224	35.2%	9.8%	17.9%	42.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,000
5	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.312	0.297	0.207	33.1%	8.7%	31.7%	36.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
6	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.293	0.297	0.110	24.5%	7.7%	14.0%	36.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.332	0.293	0.193	33.2%	4.8%	22.5%	43.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.319	0.325	0.184	37.7%	12.6%	31.2%	41.5%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.279	0.237	0.153	24.6%	6.1%	34.7%	39.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

A matchup against Jose Berrios does not look appealing on paper. On the season, he has a 24% strikeout rate and a 25% hard contact rate. He has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .304 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate. The good news is that the Astros are the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching. I expect them to score some runs here, but there are better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.355	0.343	0.206	34.2%	10.4%	24.0%	48.8%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.375	0.355	0.193	33.7%	9.1%	11.6%	36.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.399	0.370	0.195	30.6%	8.2%	9.8%	44.3%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,300	2B	$10,400
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.372	0.371	0.212	37.4%	10.7%	21.1%	50.0%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.327	0.343	0.169	36.8%	10.0%	18.2%	36.4%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
6	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.330	0.307	0.207	33.1%	6.4%	17.7%	46.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.338	0.305	0.181	34.0%	6.5%	20.5%	45.9%	OF	$3,600	3B/OF	$4,600	1B	$8,800
8	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.352	0.316	0.186	33.3%	2.6%	10.9%	43.0%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
9	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.316	0.323	0.178	30.6%	7.6%	20.3%	35.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 14th - Page Two

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Stackability Rating System:

NY Yankees at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Arizona at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Matt Adams (Cash), Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Danny Valencia

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann

Stackability – YELLOW

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