MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-15 04:52:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Editor’s Note: Michael Pineda has been scratched from his start today. Jordan Montgomery will start instead.

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Baltimore
			Mike Montgomery							Kevin Gausman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-105							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.305	26.9%	8.4%	20.6%	59.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.319	32.7%	8.0%	20.9%	38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.318	28.7%	11.1%	21.4%	58.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	0.339	31.1%	7.1%	21.6%	46.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 26	Salary Rank:		11 of 26	Salary Rank:		10 of 26
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	6	4.48	3.75	19.6%	11.8%	59.0%	31.7%	21.6%

Seeing as how we didn’t have any other sports to play during the All-Star break (with the exception of WNBA which had some big GPPs on Wednesday), I’m ready to get right back into some baseball. Montgomery will take the mound for the Cubs. While he does have an elite ground ball rate (59%), he walks a lot of batters and has a below-average strikeout rate. There are times when he is useful as an SP2 in smaller slates, but it’s hard to justify the play in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Even though the Orioles have struggled against southpaws, Montgomery is an easy fade in this big slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	19	4.93	5.85	18.4%	9.6%	41.4%	33.0%	18.4%

Gasuman found a little bit of form before the All-Star break, although he did allow five runs to the Twins in his last start. Consistency has been a big issue for Gausman all year, but we are starting to see signs of improvement. His strikeout rate is at only 18.4% overall, but he has at least seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts. His matchup against the Cubs is better than you might expect, as Chicago is ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 18th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options in the slate, but Gausman could be a viable GPP flier on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they also get to utilize the DH in this series. Their offense was a huge disappointment in the first half of the season, so this is a good chance for Chicago to start off on the right foot after the All-Star break. Kevin Gausman has shown some signs of life recently, but he’s still a pitcher that we don’t mind targeting hitters against, especially in this ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .319 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .339 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.344	0.366	0.171	33.5%	15.0%	11.7%	47.3%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.379	0.347	0.239	36.4%	10.8%	22.5%	32.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,000
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.387	0.381	0.254	35.7%	12.6%	15.4%	36.2%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,200
4	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.364	0.339	0.305	35.8%	9.5%	29.7%	42.6%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.306	0.355	0.239	34.1%	12.4%	27.1%	41.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.341	0.310	0.202	33.9%	8.7%	27.7%	52.3%	C	$3,200	C	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.294	0.312	0.109	26.9%	8.4%	14.0%	46.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.298	0.295	0.158	28.7%	7.1%	22.5%	43.1%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
9	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.321	0.296	0.112	29.1%	5.9%	21.3%	50.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the only right-handed heavy offenses in baseball that fare as good against righties as they do against lefties. When two of your best hitters (Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo) both have an xwOBA below .290 against southpaws, it’s going to hurt the overall team numbers. While a stack is certainly out of the equation given Mike Montgomery 59% ground ball rate, there are a few intriguing one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.338	0.304	0.149	31.1%	6.3%	17.8%	37.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.370	0.391	0.213	42.4%	9.0%	16.2%	42.6%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.257	0.272	0.094	29.3%	6.7%	22.0%	39.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.321	0.336	0.180	33.3%	11.5%	33.3%	34.6%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.274	0.286	0.183	34.6%	6.0%	25.0%	42.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.328	0.301	0.213	26.7%	6.0%	24.1%	48.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
7	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.355	0.386	0.260	40.3%	3.8%	26.9%	47.2%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,500
8	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.349	0.362	0.195	50.4%	7.7%	25.1%	39.8%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
9	Ruben Tejada	RIGHT	0.309	0.287	0.109	32.6%	9.3%	11.1%	41.9%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Pittsburgh
			Mike Leake							Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-120							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.329	28.6%	5.7%	14.5%	57.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.337	38.9%	6.0%	22.2%	40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.313	31.9%	3.4%	18.5%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.306	25.4%	7.1%	17.9%	51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Leake
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 26	Salary Rank:		23 of 26	Salary Rank:		23 of 26
	2016	30	3.92	4.69	16.5%	4.0%	53.7%	30.6%	17.3%
	2017	17	4.13	3.12	16.7%	5.4%	55.8%	29.7%	16.6%

Leake is one of those pitchers that is better suited for real baseball than he is for fantasy baseball. He induces a lot of ground balls and he limits hard contact against him, but he doesn’t get many outs by the way of strikeout. As I have told you many times young grasshopper, strikeouts are king in DFS. Leake is an easy fade against the Pirates, who have the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t necessarily expect the Pirates to get to Leake, but he has too low of a ceiling in this matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,500
	Salary Rank:		7 of 26	Salary Rank:		5 of 26	Salary Rank:		5 of 26
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	18	4.15	4.43	20.6%	5.9%	46.1%	33.8%	22.8%

Cole is going to garner a little bit of ownership tonight because he is pitching at home and because people want to believe in him. If you take the name away from the statistics, he has been a mediocre pitcher this season. In 18 starts, he has a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He has a slightly above-average ground ball rate and gives up a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. The good news for Cole is that the Cardinals may only have two lefties in their lineup tonight. The bad news is that St. Louis is ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At his price point, Cole is viable on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, but he’s far from a must play in any format.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals don’t match up well with Gerrit Cole, at least not from a traditional splits perspective. Cole’s biggest struggle is against left-handed hitters and the Cardinals’ lineup consists primarily of righties. The two hitters are on my radar here are Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler. Both can hit from the left side of the plate, both have decent speed (Cole doesn’t hold runners well), and they are underpriced on one site a piece (Fowler on FD, Carpenter on DK).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.380	0.414	0.251	46.6%	16.1%	18.8%	27.0%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
2	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.363	0.351	0.202	31.6%	13.8%	24.1%	36.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.326	0.349	0.158	32.1%	8.3%	21.5%	45.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
4	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.358	0.339	0.257	34.1%	8.9%	23.7%	42.4%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.322	0.332	0.122	32.9%	5.8%	11.9%	47.3%	C	$2,600	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.311	0.322	0.232	41.7%	4.7%	31.1%	39.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
7	Luke Voit	RIGHT	0.483	0.643	0.370	43.5%	6.7%	13.3%	39.1%	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,300	1B	$4,400
8	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.370	0.304	0.284	38.4%	1.0%	28.8%	31.5%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$2,600	3B	$5,200
9	Mike Leake	RIGHT	0.161	0.251	0.033	21.7%	3.0%	27.3%	35.0%	P	$7,700	P	$6,400	P	$12,800

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler (FD), Matt Carpenter (DK & FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler (DK & FDRFT), Matt Carpenter (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Even though Mike Leake has had a few bad outings over the last couple of months, he’s still not a pitcher that I like to pick on. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts, but he has an above-average ground ball rate and he limits hard contact against him. Typically, that combination limits the upside for the opposing offense. It’s not like we are clamoring to target the Pirates’ offense in a 15-game slate to begin with and the difficult matchup makes them an easy fade.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.312	0.331	0.118	31.7%	8.9%	14.2%	46.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.309	0.292	0.111	28.4%	4.2%	15.2%	42.6%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.340	0.342	0.178	35.4%	9.8%	20.2%	36.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,600
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.343	0.353	0.207	34.3%	11.9%	17.3%	50.7%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.315	0.323	0.125	31.6%	9.4%	25.7%	58.8%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.329	0.337	0.193	32.6%	8.7%	16.1%	38.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.325	0.088	28.4%	13.4%	19.4%	52.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.307	0.297	0.123	26.0%	8.6%	14.7%	49.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.153	0.142	0.000	5.3%	1.6%	38.1%	75.9%	P	$8,700	P	$8,500	P	$16,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Miami
			Brandon McCarthy							Dan Straily
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-116							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.273	0.286	29.7%	9.3%	19.9%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.304	29.3%	11.1%	21.7%	35.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.283	28.9%	10.4%	22.1%	42.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.309	35.1%	6.2%	21.3%	32.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brandon McCarthy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26	Salary Rank:		17 of 26
	2016	9	4.76	4.95	25.7%	15.2%	34.7%	36.4%	20.2%
	2017	14	4.57	3.12	18.5%	7.0%	43.4%	26.3%	23.7%

McCarthy’s numbers in the last two seasons are polar opposites. In 2016, he was a high strikeout pitcher with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. This season, he has a below-average strikeout rate, but he has limited walks and hard contact. With a run and a half difference between his ERA and his SIERA, we can expect some regression in the second half of the year. This is something that I can overlook when it comes to high strikeout pitchers, but McCarthy just hasn’t generated enough swings and misses. He is also facing a low-strikeout Marlins’ offense on the road.

Quick Breakdown: McCarthy is cheap and has shown upside in the past, but he needs to flash some form before considering him in DFS.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 26	Salary Rank:		16 of 26	Salary Rank:		16 of 26
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	18	4.13	3.31	23.5%	7.0%	37.4%	33.0%	20.9%

Straily is having a solid season for the Marlins, posting a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Marlins Park is big, which usually helps fly-ball pitchers like Straily. The issue isn’t the ballpark, it’s the matchup. The Dodgers’ lineup is loaded with batters that mash right-handed pitching. On the season, Los Angeles has the seventh highest team wOBA against righties. In a full 15-game slate, it’s not hard to find a pitcher with a higher floor and ceiling than Straily.

Quick Breakdown: Straily can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

I’m a bit conflicted on what I want to do with the Dodgers. On paper, their matchup against Dan Straily is less than appealing. He owns an above-average strikeout rate and over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. On the other hand, the Dodgers are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and have feasted on better pitchers than Straily this season. I won’t be stacking the Dodgers here, but there are some intriguing one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.317	0.325	0.145	33.6%	9.9%	23.9%	44.2%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.390	0.402	0.211	42.3%	10.3%	18.7%	44.7%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.388	0.383	0.217	36.2%	7.7%	15.5%	33.6%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,000
4	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.397	0.356	0.375	47.5%	12.3%	30.8%	34.5%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.326	0.308	0.188	31.8%	10.3%	27.6%	48.0%	OF	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,400	2B	$8,700
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.347	0.340	0.246	38.2%	10.4%	27.1%	43.5%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.383	0.361	0.270	39.1%	13.3%	25.2%	40.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.338	0.327	0.184	33.1%	8.2%	20.5%	49.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
9	Brandon McCarthy	RIGHT	0.118	0.177	0.000	15.4%	12.5%	46.9%	77.8%	P	$7,400	P	$6,900	P	$13,800

Elite Plays – Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Brandon McCarthy strikeout rate has taken a big dip this season, but he is inducing a ton of soft and medium contact. When a fly ball pitcher doesn’t give up hard contact, it results in a lot of pop-ups and lazy fly balls. Don’t be surprised if we see a lot of that from the Marlins here. While I won’t have a ton of exposure to this offense, Christian Yelich is significantly better against fly-ball pitchers than he is against ground-ball pitchers. Justin Bour has been swinging a hot bat and is a viable one-off target in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.302	0.250	0.076	18.1%	5.6%	14.6%	57.0%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.350	0.338	0.250	37.3%	9.4%	28.5%	40.9%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.371	0.381	0.183	40.1%	12.2%	19.3%	55.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.348	0.339	0.205	37.8%	7.5%	20.7%	45.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,100
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.359	0.388	0.237	39.5%	11.9%	17.4%	42.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
6	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.298	0.304	0.106	25.2%	5.7%	11.5%	48.9%	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.339	0.310	0.124	30.3%	5.2%	16.6%	50.4%	C	$3,200	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.291	0.286	0.138	38.9%	6.0%	19.0%	49.6%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.046	0.076	0.000	14.7%	2.4%	56.6%	87.5%	P	$8,400	P	$7,100	P	$14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								NY Mets
			Jon Gray							Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-145							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.319	34.9%	7.9%	25.1%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.305	32.2%	7.7%	23.3%	43.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.290	24.6%	8.8%	26.0%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.296	33.9%	6.3%	28.0%	47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		25 of 26	Salary Rank:		10 of 26	Salary Rank:		10 of 26
	2016	29	3.72	4.61	26.0%	8.3%	43.5%	30.6%	17.8%
	2017	5	4.02	3.75	22.6%	8.5%	52.8%	27.4%	20.6%

It’s taken a little while for Gray to knock some rust off after missing so much time, but he has looked sharp in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks and Reds. In those two outings, he struck out 15 batters while allowing four earned runs. It’s hard for a pitcher to be consistent when half of his starts come in Coors Field, but I’m expecting big things from Gray in the second half of the season. His matchup against Jacob deGrom and the Mets is far from ideal, but at least he gets to face them on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Given his talent and price point, Gray is worth a look as a GPP flier tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$22,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 26	Salary Rank:		2 of 26	Salary Rank:		2 of 26
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	17	3.60	3.65	28.4%	8.3%	46.1%	35.6%	20.8%

DeGrom is the top pitching option in the slate. He is pitching at home, he is a huge favorite, and he is facing an offense that has struggled away from Coors Field. Not only that, but he’s having an excellent season. In 17 starts, deGrom has a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. The increased velocity has led to more swings and misses, which has led to more strikeouts. If you are looking to anchor your cash game lineup around an ace, deGrom arguably has the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Jacob deGrom has allowed a 36% hard contact rate this season, so we should load up on the Rockies’ offense, right? Wrong. Even with the hard contact that he has allowed, he has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters. He also has an elite strikeout rate. The Rockies have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate and can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.401	0.361	0.270	38.5%	7.6%	19.2%	31.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,800
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.356	0.363	0.103	31.6%	8.5%	13.0%	54.0%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.370	0.344	0.258	37.2%	7.9%	15.2%	36.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.347	0.342	0.180	32.9%	10.3%	18.6%	44.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,400
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.393	0.333	0.234	31.1%	9.5%	26.3%	40.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.327	0.312	0.221	34.7%	8.0%	32.1%	31.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.310	0.305	0.168	35.9%	2.7%	17.8%	50.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.314	0.292	0.109	21.4%	11.2%	20.2%	47.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.233	0.158	0.119	35.0%	4.2%	52.1%	56.3%	P	$6,600	P	$7,900	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Before the season started, everyone was excited about Jon Gray. An injury kept him out of action for a couple of months, but we should be encouraged by what we’ve seen in his five starts. We know the strikeouts will be there, but this season, he is inducing more ground balls and more soft contact. This should really help him pitch in Coors Field and in difficult road starts. I know that this section is supposed to be about the Mets, but Gray just isn’t a pitcher that I want to pick on. I expect this to be one of the lowest scoring games in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.367	0.366	0.242	43.3%	12.7%	24.0%	36.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.334	0.330	0.197	35.6%	7.8%	17.2%	38.4%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.346	0.353	0.226	38.7%	7.5%	19.3%	36.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.373	0.366	0.292	41.5%	9.3%	21.1%	35.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.357	0.390	0.244	40.7%	12.8%	21.7%	30.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
6	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.376	0.304	0.179	28.7%	3.6%	10.0%	38.6%	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.278	0.269	0.139	26.0%	7.4%	15.6%	36.7%	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.276	0.297	0.127	33.0%	5.7%	17.1%	47.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.254	0.247	0.076	26.8%	5.3%	21.1%	57.1%	P	$10,900	P	$11,800	P	$22,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Cincinnati
			Gio Gonzalez							Tim Adleman
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-116							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.302	26.2%	7.5%	20.7%	55.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.318	29.8%	9.0%	17.3%	29.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.316	34.5%	9.1%	23.4%	43.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.323	37.1%	7.6%	20.9%	43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	18	4.45	2.86	23.5%	10.5%	44.1%	32.6%	21.8%

Gonzalez is a candidate for regression in the second half of the season. His ERA is under 3.00, while his SIERA is sitting at 4.45. He has a decent strikeout rate, but he walks a lot of batters and his ground ball rate has come down over the years. He draws a difficult matchup against the Reds, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. In this ballpark, both pitchers can be avoided.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tim Adleman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		21 of 26	Salary Rank:		26 of 26	Salary Rank:		26 of 26
	2016	13	4.87	4.00	16.4%	7.0%	36.4%	35.4%	14.0%
	2017	15	4.58	4.71	21.6%	9.3%	37.7%	32.4%	17.4%

Adleman is having a decent season by his standards, but he’s far too volatile to trust in DFS. He currently owns a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a decent amount of hard contact, which can be troublesome in the Great American Ballpark. To make matters worse, he is facing a Nationals’ offense that is ranked third in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The risk greatly outweighs the potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Adleman is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are one of my favorite stacks in the slate, even though their matchup against Tim Adleman may not look as promising as some of the others in the slate. Washington sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and we know this team is capable of hitting home runs. I’ll take my chances with the Nationals against Adleman, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .318+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Depending on what the lineup looks like, the one through seven batters could all be viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.313	0.294	0.199	33.0%	8.7%	26.6%	47.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.298	0.277	0.155	39.3%	8.0%	37.0%	44.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.387	0.397	0.239	34.6%	18.4%	15.4%	39.6%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.326	0.337	0.185	36.3%	5.8%	22.7%	45.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.411	0.396	0.251	38.4%	6.9%	8.4%	34.8%	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,200
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.351	0.353	0.196	35.3%	10.0%	17.1%	36.8%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,800
7	Stephen Drew	LEFT	0.351	0.339	0.232	38.4%	8.8%	20.3%	30.8%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,900
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.299	0.314	0.156	32.3%	6.2%	18.1%	37.9%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.181	0.180	0.029	12.5%	2.4%	37.8%	51.4%	P	$9,000	P	$9,400	P	$18,000

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Drew

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Even though Gio Gonzalez boasts a 2.86 ERA, he’s a pitcher that I don’t mind picking on in spots. He has a high walk rate and his xwOBA against left and right-handed hitters isn’t anything special. The Reds get to face him at home in the home run friendly Great American Ballpark and we’ve already gone over the potential regression for Gonzalez in the second half of the season. I don’t love targeting lefty/lefty matchups, but the righties are in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.232	0.226	0.078	16.5%	2.8%	23.3%	44.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,100
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.360	0.330	0.228	36.3%	8.3%	16.6%	39.6%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.395	0.362	0.224	30.5%	11.8%	19.0%	54.7%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,400	1B	$10,500
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.370	0.348	0.287	39.2%	8.8%	24.5%	37.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.352	0.355	0.236	36.3%	3.1%	16.3%	46.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.376	0.347	0.232	37.2%	12.2%	24.9%	46.7%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.311	0.300	0.095	24.4%	3.5%	13.2%	51.7%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,400	2B	$6,600
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.233	0.248	0.103	21.2%	6.2%	27.1%	60.2%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Tim Adleman	RIGHT	0.302	0.175	0.143	37.5%	0.0%	42.9%	57.1%	P	$7,200	P	$4,700	P	$9,300

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler (FD), Matt Carpenter (DK & FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler (DK & FDRFT), Matt Carpenter (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Drew

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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