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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-01 01:28:50

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

NY Mets Cincinnati
nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom cincinnatimlb Robert Stephenson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.297 31.2% 7.3% 23.8% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.391 0.387 40.8% 13.8% 18.2% 33.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.289 33.7% 5.7% 28.8% 47.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 0.333 36.6% 12.2% 22.3% 40.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $12,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 26 3.45 3.39 28.6% 7.0% 44.8% 33.5% 20.4%
L30 6 2.94 3.69 30.8% 4.4% 44.0% 32.4% 20.6%

We have ten games on the schedule today, four early and six late. FanDuel has been posting some odd early slates lately and they’ve decided to leave out the Dodgers/Diamondbacks game. The pitching options in FanDuel’s three game slate are awfully thin after deGrom. He’s been dominant all season, including in his last six starts, where he has 2.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 4%. Surprisingly enough, he’s a very small favorite against the Reds.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a great matchup or a great ballpark, but deGrom is easily the top pitching option in the early slate.

Robert Stephenson
robert-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 5.12 6.08 18.2% 11.2% 34.5% 37.9% 17.2%
2017 5 4.97 5.81 22.1% 14.1% 39.7% 38.9% 12.7%
L30 3 4.40 1.96 26.3% 12.5% 38.6% 34.0% 14.9%

Stephenson is an intriguing tournament play in this early slate. Homer Bailey didn’t pan out yesterday (which was good for us), but Stephenson actually has some strikeout upside. He has a 22% strikeout rate in the majors this season and he had a 28% strikeout rate in the minor before being called up. We know that the Mets are an exploitable matchup right now, as the bottom of their order is as soft as a baby’s bottom.

Quick Breakdown: There is certainly downside for Stephenson in this ballpark, but he’s viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati, but as you will see shortly, there are three offenses in truly elite matchups in this early slate. If you need some value, you can certainly look to the likes of Jose Reyes (FD), Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Travis d’Arnaud, but I don’t see any of them as elite plays at their respective positions. This offense is trending in the wrong direction and their players are already counting down the days until the end of the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.270 0.278 0.140 26.8% 7.2% 13.7% 38.0% SS $2,700 3B/SS $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.366 0.363 0.091 40.6% 18.5% 22.2% 37.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.297 0.333 0.147 36.0% 10.0% 15.9% 42.6% 3B $2,900 2B/SS $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.327 0.320 0.188 33.5% 6.6% 14.1% 36.9% 2B $3,000 1B/3B $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.250 0.293 0.143 34.7% 4.2% 16.3% 40.6% C $2,100 C $2,900 N/A N/A
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.323 0.309 0.263 37.5% 5.0% 15.0% 50.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.250 0.221 0.125 25.0% 1.5% 36.4% 47.5% SS $2,500 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.281 0.246 0.096 29.2% 5.6% 21.3% 54.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.276 0.245 0.083 34.4% 2.0% 35.3% 40.0% P $10,300 P $12,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes (FD), Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds draw the toughest matchup in the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in the last two seasons. The Vegas line seems a little fishy here, but that says more about the state of the Mets’ offense than it does about deGrom. Outside of a GPP dart throw, I don’t see anything viable in this Reds’ lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.291 0.255 0.086 16.0% 8.8% 21.0% 45.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.378 0.320 0.229 29.9% 12.7% 16.4% 38.9% SS $3,400 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.429 0.430 0.270 37.8% 18.4% 11.5% 36.7% 1B $4,300 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.329 0.294 0.246 33.3% 5.0% 27.0% 30.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.388 0.335 0.267 38.4% 7.3% 21.3% 41.4% 2B $3,500 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.366 0.350 0.221 31.3% 13.3% 22.2% 39.8% 3B $4,100 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.344 0.369 0.271 40.1% 9.2% 22.0% 42.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Stuart Turner RIGHT 0.255 0.215 0.103 33.3% 8.8% 29.4% 25.0% C $2,000 C $2,000 N/A N/A
9 Robert Stephenson RIGHT 0.097 0.090 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 70.0% 0.0% P $6,500 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Minnesota
whitesoxmlb Miguel Gonzalez minnesotamlb Bartolo Colon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-155 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.329 32.2% 8.3% 15.5% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.354 39.3% 6.0% 14.6% 36.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.315 28.8% 5.9% 15.5% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.307 32.6% 3.5% 15.4% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez
miguel-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 4.61 3.73 16.8% 6.2% 40.1% 28.6% 18.1%
2017 21 5.37 4.30 14.3% 8.0% 38.1% 32.4% 16.0%
L30 6 4.99 3.53 17.7% 7.2% 34.2% 31.6% 16.7%

Gonzalez has struggled all season. His nine strikeout performance against the Tigers was an aberration. He has a 14% strikeout rate on the season and he’s posted a SIERA over 5.00 in ten of his last 11 starts. We shouldn’t expect him to have flipped a switch all of a sudden. The Twins are still missing a few pieces offensively, but they should be able to score some runs against Gonzalez at home.

Quick Breakdown: I’m trusting the larger sample with Gonzalez and will continue to avoid him in all formats.

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.37 3.43 16.2% 4.1% 43.2% 35.4% 16.2%
2017 21 5.20 6.35 13.1% 5.9% 42.3% 36.7% 18.6%
L30 6 5.56 3.38 11.6% 5.8% 37.6% 42.3% 14.1%

Colon has a low ERA in his last six starts, but the advanced numbers show that he’s basically the same pitcher that he’s been all year. With such a low strikeout rate, he’s basically at the mercy of BABIP with each and every start. When the line drives are finding gaps in the outfield, he typically gives up a lot of runs. After that ugly introduction, I can’t believe I’m saying this. Colon is actually on my radar in this slate. He has been tough on right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, holding them to a .307 xwOBA on a 49% ground ball rate. We know the White Sox struggle against right-handed pitching and their projected lineup has seven righties in it.

Quick Breakdown: Stephenson may have more strikeout upside, but Colon is sneaky if we see a right-handed heavy lineup from the White Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are sizable underdog here and they have struggled against right-handed pitching all season long. I usually like to load up on hitters against Bartolo Colon, but the White Sox don’t have enough left-handed hitters in their lineup. While Colon has been tough on righties, he has allowed a .354 xwOBA with a 39% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons. I’m not ruling out this offense completely, but I will have more exposure to the eighth wonder of the world, Bartolo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.341 0.312 0.210 30.1% 3.7% 22.6% 50.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.311 0.284 0.138 25.0% 7.0% 19.0% 47.5% 2B $3,500 2B/3B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.338 0.343 0.221 39.2% 4.8% 17.1% 44.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.343 0.352 0.177 31.1% 5.6% 20.6% 50.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.328 0.314 0.280 42.7% 4.7% 41.0% 34.7% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.333 0.284 0.092 24.7% 3.8% 20.6% 57.4% C $2,500 C $2,800 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.214 0.197 0.066 21.2% 7.4% 25.5% 46.9% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.252 0.253 0.139 27.6% 2.9% 26.9% 52.3% SS $3,200 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.225 0.223 0.111 29.6% 5.3% 34.2% 42.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins have a high implied run total today, as they square off against Miguel Gonzalez at home. He’s been one of our favorite pitchers to stack against, as he has a low strikeout rate and isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. The sample size is small, but Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, and Max Kepler all have at least a .300 batting average against Gonzalez in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.328 0.313 0.206 33.3% 9.6% 21.3% 40.0% 2B $4,100 2B $5,400 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.347 0.391 0.119 40.2% 12.0% 13.9% 49.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.304 0.291 0.142 26.6% 8.3% 14.4% 40.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.367 0.333 0.237 32.4% 7.6% 18.2% 38.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.274 0.252 0.147 25.3% 6.0% 31.8% 40.1% OF $3,800 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.360 0.322 0.232 37.7% 8.4% 16.6% 41.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
7 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.339 0.343 0.218 33.3% 5.3% 26.3% 44.1% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.284 0.295 0.135 30.1% 6.4% 18.7% 37.2% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.319 0.264 0.149 21.1% 14.3% 29.5% 34.5% C $2,300 C $2,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas at Houston – 1:10 PM ET

Texas Houston
texasmlb Nick Martinez houstonmlb Collin McHugh
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-154 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.384 0.374 34.3% 11.7% 10.9% 40.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.299 27.3% 7.8% 22.2% 42.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.332 28.6% 4.7% 12.8% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.289 31.7% 6.1% 22.8% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez
nick-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 5.84 5.59 8.9% 10.6% 50.4% 33.8% 15.1%
2017 14 5.24 5.26 13.4% 6.7% 39.9% 30.0% 20.9%
L30 3 5.27 8.27 16.7% 8.3% 27.5% 37.7% 20.8%

Martinez hasn’t been on our radar all season and there is no reason for that to change today. Sure, Andrew Cashner pitched well against the Astros last night, but this is a new day. It’s a new dawn. It’s a new life for me. In 14 starts this season, Martinez owns a 5.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He is facing an Astros’ offense that is ranked first in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road, Martinez is an easy fade in all formats.

Collin McHugh
collin-mchugh-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.02 4.34 22.2% 6.8% 41.3% 30.2% 20.0%
2017 7 4.16 3.63 23.8% 7.3% 31.5% 26.6% 7.3%
L30 6 3.99 3.09 24.5% 7.0% 34.0% 25.3% 6.3%

McHugh is hoping to have more success than Mike Fiers and Dallas Keuchel have had so far in this series, which is basically none. McHugh has pitched fairly well this season, posting a 4.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a hard contact rate of 27%. He’s a big favorite today against the Rangers, who have a boom or bust offense. I expect McHugh to be the second highest owned pitcher in the early slate behind Jacob deGrom, but I’m not completely sold on the play. The Rangers can put up runs quickly, especially with Joey Gallo back in the lineup.

Quick Breakdown: McHugh is certainly a fine play in the early slate, but I might take a stand against him and take a shot on Bartolo or Stephenson instead.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers draw a difficult matchup against Collin McHugh and they aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks (Tropicana). They seem to have the Astros number right now though, which makes me second guess playing McHugh in this spot. As far as the Rangers go, I see them as secondary plays at each of their respective positions. Nothing really stands out against McHugh, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.341 0.376 0.161 41.6% 13.3% 21.1% 45.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.350 0.300 0.163 30.0% 5.9% 16.4% 48.9% SS $3,800 SS $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.345 0.343 0.199 35.6% 10.9% 19.0% 40.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.365 0.346 0.228 37.7% 9.1% 14.2% 46.1% 3B $4,400 3B $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.367 0.368 0.365 45.2% 14.6% 35.5% 26.8% 1B $4,000 1B/3B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.349 0.337 0.226 42.6% 8.9% 30.4% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.304 0.315 0.232 37.3% 8.7% 33.3% 35.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.309 0.314 0.239 38.5% 4.8% 24.0% 38.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Brett Nicholas LEFT 0.389 0.289 0.333 42.1% 4.0% 20.0% 31.6% C $2,700 C $2,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros draw a favorable matchup today against Nick Martinez. Maybe this will kickstart their offense, as they’ve been stuck in neutral for a few games. Since the beginning of last season, Martinez has allowed a .374 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. An Astros’ stack is viable in tournaments and the usual suspects are fine cash game targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.377 0.370 0.251 39.6% 8.7% 21.3% 50.2% OF $3,900 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.345 0.343 0.193 33.6% 9.0% 16.2% 42.4% 3B $4,100 3B/SS $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.415 0.360 0.199 28.3% 8.3% 11.9% 45.0% 2B $4,100 2B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.347 0.319 0.196 33.6% 2.1% 9.9% 45.3% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.356 0.326 0.199 31.8% 5.7% 15.5% 35.1% C $2,400 C $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.316 0.295 0.190 33.2% 7.6% 18.2% 43.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.404 0.326 0.252 36.8% 9.5% 21.1% 44.6% SS $2,900 OF/SS $3,600 N/A N/A
8 J.D. Davis RIGHT 0.302 0.270 0.211 25.0% 9.5% 33.3% 75.0% 3B $2,500 3B $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.367 0.300 0.315 33.3% 5.8% 36.7% 41.1% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

LA Dodgers Arizona
ladodgersmlb Kenta Maeda arizonamlb Zack Greinke
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-106 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.312 30.8% 8.8% 18.5% 39.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.302 34.1% 5.6% 23.6% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.255 26.2% 4.6% 30.8% 43.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.284 30.9% 6.2% 24.1% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
kenta-maeda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.69 3.48 25.0% 7.0% 43.9% 29.0% 20.0%
2017 21 3.82 3.76 24.7% 6.1% 38.4% 27.9% 19.6%
L30 5 3.04 2.76 30.9% 4.6% 38.0% 31.0% 18.3%

If you are building lineups on FanDuel, keep in mind that this game is not featured in their early slate. Maeda has been solid all season and he’s been in great form over his last five starts. During that stretch, he owns a 3.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 5%. We always think of Maeda as a pitcher with capped upside (because he rarely throws more than 85-95 pitches), but his recent strikeout rate is turning heads. The issue today is twofold. He draws a difficult matchup against the Diamondbacks and he has to face them in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: The fact that this game has a total of 9.0 runs with these two pitchers on the mound is telling.

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.11 4.37 20.1% 6.2% 45.9% 30.7% 20.3%
2017 26 3.36 3.14 27.6% 5.6% 48.4% 34.8% 21.4%
L30 6 3.42 3.89 28.0% 7.3% 51.5% 36.1% 17.5%

Greinke gets to square off against his former team, who have gotten the better of him more often than not in their previous meetings. The current Dodgers roster has a .371 wOBA with 23 extra-base hits in 179 at-bats. We’ve seen Greinke in much better form this season though, as he currently owns a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. The issue with Greinke is also twofold. He has to face a tough Dodgers’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is viable in the early slate, but there are red flags in a game that features of a total of 9.0 runs.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have lost four games in a row, which is a season high. The sky might be falling in Los Angeles today. They will look to right the ship against Zack Greinke, but that’s a tall task. Since the beginning of last season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. If we look at the BvP, we can see that Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger have hit Greinke well this season, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.383 0.347 0.230 36.8% 9.9% 25.8% 40.6% OF $3,800 2B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.357 0.348 0.281 34.8% 15.3% 22.6% 30.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.352 0.374 0.132 34.7% 10.6% 9.9% 31.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.409 0.374 0.377 47.1% 12.7% 27.5% 32.1% 1B $4,000 1B/OF $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.343 0.303 0.242 38.2% 6.8% 26.7% 39.9% C $3,300 C $3,100 N/A N/A
6 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.380 0.359 0.263 35.9% 10.0% 19.9% 44.9% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.281 0.305 0.059 31.3% 15.6% 27.1% 46.9% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Enrique Hernandez RIGHT 0.243 0.247 0.107 35.1% 10.7% 26.7% 40.2% SS $2,000 OF/SS $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.143 0.115 0.037 13.3% 0.0% 3.2% 69.6% P $8,600 P $9,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

This is a strange game when it comes to fantasy baseball. I’m not particularly interested in the pitchers because of the hitter-friendly ballpark and I’m not too interested in the offenses because of their difficult matchups against the pitchers. In the last two seasons, Kenta Maeda has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Jake Lamb has the best BvP in the lineup. He is 9-for-22 with two home runs and three doubles against Maeda in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.361 0.314 0.172 34.6% 7.0% 15.2% 53.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.324 0.311 0.157 37.4% 7.2% 19.4% 44.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.400 0.379 0.285 37.3% 14.4% 20.6% 38.1% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.420 0.394 0.279 43.6% 14.2% 22.9% 46.7% 1B $4,500 1B $5,000 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.345 0.370 0.271 42.6% 10.7% 26.0% 42.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.331 0.320 0.164 40.3% 11.4% 22.8% 36.5% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.316 0.297 0.252 37.9% 10.7% 36.1% 33.3% C $2,500 C $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.318 0.321 0.149 22.4% 10.2% 18.5% 33.8% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.185 0.232 0.028 23.3% 2.4% 23.8% 50.0% P $9,400 P $10,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – David Peralta

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-135 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.305 26.1% 9.3% 25.8% 36.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.270 16.5% 8.9% 23.3% 53.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.307 30.0% 8.5% 23.3% 32.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.302 28.6% 8.3% 18.4% 49.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.44 4.71 21.8% 8.7% 31.6% 27.6% 22.2%
2017 18 4.04 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 35.1% 31.0% 18.5%
L30 6 4.13 4.81 24.3% 7.6% 33.7% 31.6% 21.4%

We kick off the six game main slate with one of the best rivalries in baseball. The Red Sox currently lead the AL East and the Yankees currently lead the wildcard, so this is a big series for both teams. Rodriguez has fared well against the Yankees in his career, holding their current roster to a .333 wOBA, but the strikeouts haven’t exactly been there (18%). At his price point, he’s viable in tournaments in a slate that features very few pitching options, but Rodriguez is still a risk pitching on the road in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: The risk may outweigh the reward, but that’s the case with most pitchers in this slate.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 21 4.57 3.82 18.6% 8.3% 49.7% 29.3% 23.7%
L30 4 4.15 4.50 17.8% 4.4% 47.1% 21.4% 28.6%

Sabathia has been a serviceable pitcher for the Yankees this season. After it looked like his time in the majors was nearing an end, he reinvented himself. He no longer relies on a high strikeout rate and instead induces a lot of soft and medium contact. If you have played DFS for a few years, then you probably remember the days when we would automatically stack right-handed hitters against him. Tonight’s matchup against the Red Sox looks awful on paper, but Sabathia has owned Boston’s current roster, holding them to a .243 wOBA with 35 strikeouts in 189 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez may have higher strikeout upside, but I’ll take the discount on price and ownership with Sabathia.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have not hit CC Sabathia well in the past. The player with the best BvP is Mookie Betts and he’s 7-for-20 with one extra-base hit against him. Sabathia isn’t a dominant pitcher anymore, but he’s not one that gets shelled very often. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. To make matters worse, only two projected starters have a hard contact rate over 30% this season (Betts and Hanley Ramirez).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.307 0.291 0.142 22.1% 8.6% 17.2% 43.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.311 0.299 0.126 29.7% 5.9% 9.2% 53.5% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.262 0.281 0.062 21.5% 11.8% 18.3% 51.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.153 33.3% 14.7% 7.8% 43.3% OF $3,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.306 0.280 0.074 26.1% 8.7% 15.2% 55.1% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.462 0.319 0.280 26.7% 3.8% 38.5% 46.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.313 0.365 0.231 37.9% 16.1% 21.5% 39.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Chris Young RIGHT 0.281 0.314 0.090 29.2% 13.2% 14.3% 35.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.348 0.362 0.231 29.4% 4.9% 12.2% 41.2% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

While Eduardo Rodriguez has an above-average strikeout rate and is generally good at limiting hard contact, he has an extreme fly-ball rate, which leads to a lot of home runs. He had a 1.35 HR/9 last season and it hasn’t gotten much better this season at 1.20. High strikeout fly-ball pitchers typically aren’t the best to stack against, but there is certainly some upside that we can try to capture in this lineup by using one-off targets. Aaron Judge was able to start the second game of yesterday’s double-header and is expected to be in the lineup tonight, which is obviously a big boost for the Yankees’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.268 0.293 0.096 21.1% 10.8% 19.2% 49.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.359 0.332 0.209 31.9% 9.6% 20.2% 45.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.348 0.393 0.298 41.7% 11.6% 25.3% 36.7% C $3,700 C $4,700 C $9,200
4 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.390 0.450 0.269 44.4% 24.6% 31.0% 35.2% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.322 0.314 0.096 33.3% 9.9% 16.0% 53.3% 2B $2,900 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.301 0.282 0.081 16.8% 3.4% 14.3% 34.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.286 0.309 0.134 29.9% 5.6% 24.6% 40.2% 1B $3,600 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.342 0.361 0.301 33.3% 15.8% 21.9% 23.2% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.326 0.229 0.049 16.7% 4.5% 13.6% 63.0% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,000 2B $6,000

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious