MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-05 02:22:18

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			Justin Verlander					Jose Quintana
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -123					7.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.261	25.4%	7.6%	32.1%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.281	33.8%	4.4%	21.6%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.283	32.0%	5.1%	24.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.302	32.4%	6.4%	21.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$10,200		Salary:			$10,500
	Salary Rank:			2 of 18		Salary Rank:			1 of 18
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	12.0%	33.7%	47.7%	28.9%

I hope Opening Day went well for everyone that played. If you read the Grind Down, hopefully you listened and stacked the Dodgers. This was originally supposed to be an eight-game slate, but the Tigers and White Sox game was postponed yesterday, so they will make it up today. This game is only featured in the early and all-day slates on FanDuel and DraftKings, so if you are only playing in the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game.

This will be Verlander’s first start since being snubbed for the Cy Young Award. He seems like a guy that might hold a grudge, so a little added motivation heading into the season isn’t going to hurt. He basically resurrected his career, coming off of a tremendous season where he posted a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.1%. Verlander is a reverse-splits pitcher, but his numbers are good against hitters from both sides of the plate. He has a ton of upside in a matchup against the White Sox and is the preferred pitching target in this game. He doesn’t walk many batters, his strikeout rate is well above the league average, and he is listed as a small favorite.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,700		Salary:			$9,000
	Salary Rank:			6 of 18		Salary Rank:			6 of 18
	2016	32	4.01	3.20	21.6%	6.0%	7.6%	40.4%	38.7%	32.7%

Jose Quintana is a pitcher that I roster more often than the average DFS player. He has a slightly above-average strikeout rate, he has a high ground ball rate, and he really improved his numbers against right-handed hitters last season. He doesn’t have many blow-up outings and he is a good bet for a quality start every time he takes the mound. I bring all of this up for future purposes, as there is no reason to roster him in this slate. His matchup against the right-handed heavy lineup of the Tigers is a difficult one and there is more blowup potential than upside. There will be plenty of opportunities to target Quintana, this just isn’t one of them.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Jose Quintana has an above-average strikeout rate and a below-average walk rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He does give up a fairly high hard contact rate to righties (32.4%), but it’s not high enough that we should ignore all of the other numbers that are telling us to stay away from hitters against Quintana. I’m not for or against BvP, but I like to point out the most obvious stats each day. Miguel Cabrera (.447 wOBA and two home runs) and Victor Martinez (.410 wOBA) both have good numbers against Quintana in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.380	0.216	34.4%	8.4%	17.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.275	0.207	36.1%	6.8%	23.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.385	0.215	42.1%	9.7%	16.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.352	0.161	35.2%	8.1%	14.8%	C	$3,000	1B	$3,500
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.321	0.205	37.0%	7.6%	28.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
6	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.289	0.152	31.4%	4.7%	41.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.357	0.267	47.5%	4.6%	28.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.125	0.059	66.7%	0.0%	9.1%	3B	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.305	0.142	29.1%	5.2%	10.7%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox

There are very few times in the course of a season where you should be actively targeting hitters against elite pitchers. Justin Verlander has an above-average strikeout rate and is incredibly tough on left-handed hitters. I would generally recommend a complete fade, but Jose Abreu has some outstanding BvP numbers against Verlander is in his career. In 32 plate appearances, Abreu has a .523 wOBA and four home runs. Given the fact that Abreu hits more ground balls than your average hitter, we like to target him against fly-ball pitchers and Verlander certainly fits the bill (47.7% fly-ball rate in 2016).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.300	0.137	22.3%	3.4%	20.5%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,400
2	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.308	0.154	30.9%	3.3%	27.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600
3	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.338	0.155	28.7%	7.9%	9.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700
4	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.348	0.159	31.1%	6.2%	17.4%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.323	0.229	31.5%	9.3%	23.1%	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,100
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.271	0.137	33.9%	7.3%	24.1%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$3,200
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.303	0.137	31.9%	6.7%	26.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.276	0.038	15.7%	11.0%	12.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500
9	Jacob May							OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
NY Yankees					Tampa Bay
			CC Sabathia					Jake Odorizzi
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -105					7.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.294	20.6%	9.7%	24.5%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.254	33.3%	6.9%	26.8%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.316	25.6%	8.2%	18.6%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.343	33.9%	7.1%	17.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,400		Salary:			$6,900
	Salary Rank:			12 of 18		Salary Rank:			13 of 18
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	9.9%	50.1%	33.0%	24.7%

After a rapid decline in performance the last few years, Sabathia was actually a decent starting pitcher in 2016. His numbers aren’t going to leap off the page at you, but he posted a 4.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.8%. His biggest area of improvement came where you would least expect it – hard contact. He limited lefties to a 20.6% hard contact rate and he limited righties to a 25.6% hard contact rate. There are still reasons to be skeptical (his age being one of them), but we may not want to look at Sabathia as the pitcher we automatically want to target hitters against. This is more of a “sell” on the Rays’ offense tonight than it is a “buy” on Sabathia.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,700		Salary:			$7,800
	Salary Rank:			10 of 18		Salary Rank:			9 of 18
	2016	33	4.21	3.69	21.5%	7.0%	9.5%	36.6%	44.4%	33.7%

Odorizzi has been a very consistent pitcher in the last few seasons. He isn’t an elite starting pitcher, but he posted a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5% last season, which are more than respectable numbers for a pitcher in the American League East. He tries to paint the edges of the plate and often works up in the zone (which helps explain his problem with home runs). He is a fly ball pitcher that has drastically better splits at home than he does on the road in his career. The Yankees have a few weapons in their lineup, but they are a team that we can attack in the right situation. Odorizzi is worth a look if you need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

A quick look at Jake Odorizzi stats and you will quickly see that he is a reverse-splits pitcher. In 2016, he held lefties to a .254 wOBA, while giving up a .343 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He also gave up an above-average hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate. As with all fly-ball pitchers, the home run upside is there for the opposing offense. I don’t love a Yankees’ stack here, but you can certainly pick your spots, especially with the players that hit from the right side. You may have heard of Gary Sanchez, he had massive power numbers against right-handed pitching this season. This may also be the last time to target Greg Bird at this price point.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.330	0.107	26.1%	12.6%	15.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.437	0.340	39.7%	8.8%	22.2%	C	$3,400	C	$4,000
3	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.144	0.000	66.7%	20.0%	20.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,800
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.332	0.189	35.5%	8.6%	17.5%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,200
5	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.324	0.125	26.8%	9.9%	12.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.314	0.160	30.7%	3.4%	19.5%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,800
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.319	0.157	33.2%	10.1%	26.7%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,600
8	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.292	0.205	46.3%	7.4%	40.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.311	0.148	20.2%	3.3%	10.7%	3B	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,100

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Whenever CC Sabathia used to take the mound, all that was need was a right-handed stack against him and you were basically rolling in the money. He vastly improved his numbers against righties last season, holding them to a .316 wOBA and a 25.6% hard contact rate. Much like the Yankees, we can pick our spots in the Rays’ lineup. Evan Longoria has mashed left-handed pitching his entire career and has impressive BvP numbers against Sabathia. In 63 plate appearances, Longoria has a .544 wOBA, seven home runs, and 13 walks. Daniel Robertson will be a viable punt play if he ends up batting leadoff and Steve Souza carries some GPP appeal in the outfield.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.381	0.091	40.0%	8.3%	8.3%	OF	$2,000	SS	$2,300
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.362	0.188	34.4%	9.7%	16.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.310	0.196	34.2%	6.0%	21.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,000
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.295	0.143	30.8%	7.3%	24.3%	2B	$3,100	SS	$3,300
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.282	0.150	37.5%	7.5%	32.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.255	0.073	36.0%	6.6%	23.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.342	0.172	33.9%	4.9%	30.3%	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,600
8	“(player-popup)Rickie Weeks Jr		0.419	0.358	51.9%	8.5%	30.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.279	0.134	41.8%	7.1%	33.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Daniel Robertson Steve Souza

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Colorado					Milwaukee
			Tyler Anderson					Zach Davies
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -108					8.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.270	23.5%	8.0%	19.6%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.330	34.0%	5.8%	18.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.333	29.7%	5.2%	21.0%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.298	33.6%	5.3%	21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Tyler Anderson
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$6,400		Salary:			$5,900
	Salary Rank:			16 of 18		Salary Rank:			15 of 18
	2016	19	3.84	3.54	20.7%	5.9%	10.7%	50.9%	28.7%	28.2%

Anderson basically came out of nowhere last year, posting a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.7%. The Rockies weren’t really expecting him to ever be a part of their starting rotation and the fact that he posted those numbers with half of his starts in Coors Field is truly impressive. He basically fits the mold of what you need to do to pitch well in Coors. He induces an ground ball rate over 50%, he strikes out over 20% of batters, and he limits the hard contact against him. It will be interesting to see how the 27-year old performs in his sophomore season. He opens up with a good strikeout matchup against the Brewers, who have three hitters (including the pitcher) in the lineup with at least a 35% strikeout rate against lefties. The issue here is that the Brewers have a number of quality right-handed hitters in their lineup. Anderson is a viable SP2 in tournaments, but shouldn’t be considered a core play tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,300		Salary:			$6,500
	Salary Rank:			13 of 18		Salary Rank:			14 of 18
	2016	28	4.06	3.97	19.8%	5.6%	8.4%	45.5%	32.5%	33.8%

Davies is basically mediocre in every statistical category that we can look at. He finished the 2016 season with a 4.06 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 19.8%. He doesn’t walk a ton of batters and he induces a ground ball rate of around 45%. He is typically one of those pitchers that gets overlooked every time he is on the mound. It’s not that he is a bad real-life pitcher, he just rarely has the strikeout upside that we are looking for from a starting pitcher. With a hard contact rate of 33.8%, I’m worried about a matchup against the Rockies, who have a number of power threats in their lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

On paper, there aren’t any reasons to dislike the Rockies’ matchup against Zach Davies. He isn’t an elite ground ball pitcher and he allows a hard contact rate of at least 33% to both left and right-handed hitters. He also has a slightly below-average strikeout rate. The Rockies may not be playing in Coors Field, but high scoring games are no stranger to Miller Park. The Rockies are one of my favorite under the radar stacks tonight and you can pick your spots to use them in cash games. One thing that often gets overlooked in DFS is the fact that road teams are guaranteed to have ninth inning at bats. They also have the potential to score more than one run in extra innings, so I am always on the lookout for road teams in favorable matchups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.405	0.275	38.7%	7.2%	16.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.390	0.132	34.7%	9.4%	12.1%	2B	$3,000	2B/3B	$4,200
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.374	0.201	35.8%	9.3%	18.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.395	0.289	37.7%	8.1%	13.8%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,800
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.369	0.290	39.7%	6.7%	30.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,100
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.289	0.162	35.6%	2.5%	19.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	28.6%	8.9%	25.6%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,000
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.325	0.152	23.8%	9.6%	23.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.239	0.111	13.6%	11.8%	23.5%	P	$6,400	P	$5,900

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, I thought it was a good spot for Jon Gray and a good spot to target a few hitters against him. I recommended doing so in separate tournament lineups, as you never want to pair your pitcher with hitters from the opposing team. Gray got off to a hot start, but the Brewers had a big inning against him. Tyler Anderson is absolutely dominant against lefties, which takes them out of consideration tonight. While the Brewers have a number of right-handed hitters in their lineup, I’m not sure how much upside they have as a whole. Anderson has a 50.6% ground ball rate and a 29.7% hard contact rate to righties, which make it tough to hit home runs and string together hits. Ryan Braun is an easy fade in my eyes, as I never want to target ground ball hitters against ground ball pitchers. I am more bearish on the Brewers than I expect the masses to be.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.393	0.236	36.1%	11.0%	26.7%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,000
2	Eric Thames	LEFT						1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,500
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.417	0.254	39.1%	7.3%	18.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700
4	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.329	0.208	37.2%	4.3%	21.7%	OF	$2,400	3B/OF	$3,200
5	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.401	0.221	41.5%	10.4%	34.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
6	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.395	0.217	45.7%	13.2%	35.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
7	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.296	0.220	31.3%	3.0%	15.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,500
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.368	0.174	33.3%	4.3%	22.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,200
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.044	0.000	12.5%	2.7%	37.8%	P	$7,300	P	$6,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Cleveland					Texas
			Carlos Carrasco					Martin Perez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -150					9.0
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.313	38.5%	7.7%	24.9%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.243	21.8%	10.8%	19.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.294	34.8%	4.0%	25.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.341	32.4%	8.5%	10.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Carlos Carrasco
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$9,900		Salary:			$8,800
	Salary Rank:			3 of 18		Salary Rank:			7 of 18
	2016	25	3.44	3.32	25.0%	5.7%	12.0%	48.5%	31.5%	36.4%

Last night’s game between the Indians and Rangers ended up being a shootout. I’m glad it wasn’t featured in the main slate, because I was higher on the pitching than the hitting in that game, but hey, that’s baseball for you. Carrasco is coming off of a tremendous 2016 campaign where he posted a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He is great at limited free base passes and he induces a fairly high number of ground balls. Even though he gives up a lot of hard contact, it usually doesn’t hurt him much because of his high strikeout and low walk rates. Carrasco is going to be a favorite pitching target of ours a number of times this season, but there are better pitching matchups to exploit tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$6,400		Salary:			$5,700
	Salary Rank:			16 of 18		Salary Rank:			16 of 18
	2016	33	5.11	4.39	12.1%	8.9%	7.9%	53.2%	26.4%	30.7%

There was a point last season when Perez had one of the lowest ERAs of any pitcher in the American League. He was basically defying sabermetrics, as everything pointed to him being a terrible pitcher. I’m 99% sure I didn’t roster him a single time last season and that’s not going to change in 2017. Pitching is all about strikeouts in DFS and Perez offers little to no strikeout upside. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates (12.1%) of any starting pitcher in baseball.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Anytime Martin Perez is on the mound, you are going to see a number of stacks against him. With such a low strikeout rate, teams are able to put the ball in play a lot more often than they are against most pitchers. I’m still on Team Target Perez, but the matchup may not be as good as most think it is. He has an above-average ground ball rate (53.2%) and he generally limits the hard contact against him. He is also very tough on left-handed hitters. You can still load up on right-handed batters against Perez. The lack of home run upside against a ground ball pitcher does hurt the appeal of the Indians a little, but they are still one of the top offenses to target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.325	0.128	29.2%	10.7%	10.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.318	0.124	29.0%	9.3%	12.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.311	0.286	66.7%	8.6%	11.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.385	0.275	37.8%	10.7%	19.5%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,400
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.363	0.162	30.1%	7.1%	8.7%	3B	$3,300	3B/OF	$3,900
6	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.313	0.171	23.5%	3.7%	25.8%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.193	0.023	50.0%	8.4%	16.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800
8	Yandy Diaz									3B	$2,700
9	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.327	0.176	28.9%	4.2%	20.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Even though the Rangers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark, this isn’t what I would call an exploitable matchup. Carlos Carrasco has an above-average strikeout rate against hitters from both sides of the plate and he doesn’t walk many batters. The only noticeable statistic in the table above is his hard contact rate of 38.5% allowed to lefties. Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, and Rougned Odor could all carry some value as one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.304	0.172	30.0%	8.3%	29.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
2	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.299	0.114	43.8%	11.7%	23.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.338	0.185	30.2%	7.3%	18.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.338	0.242	34.9%	11.1%	29.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,600
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.340	0.247	34.5%	2.4%	21.4%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900
6	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.371	0.195	33.1%	7.8%	16.8%	C	$3,200	C	$3,700
7	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.184	0.136	25.0%	15.4%	69.2%	OF	$2,000	3B/OF	$3,300
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.335	0.133	26.2%	8.2%	11.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.274	0.113	19.0%	9.1%	29.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%
Seattle					Houston
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Lance McCullers
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -165					8.5
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.328	32.1%	4.4%	17.0%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.327	29.6%	10.7%	36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.333	33.0%	6.4%	18.1%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.324	22.1%	14.7%	23.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Hisashi Iwakuma
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$7,800		Salary:			$7,700
	Salary Rank:			9 of 18		Salary Rank:			10 of 18
	2016	33	4.43	4.12	17.6%	5.5%	7.8%	40.8%	37.8%	32.6%

Iwakuma used to be one of the better pitchers in baseball, but it’s been a while since we’ve been able to call him that. He isn’t a terrible pitcher at this point in his career, but he offers little upside in the wonderful world of DFS. He finished the 2016 season with a 4.43 SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate of 17.6%. He is now 36 years old and clearly on the downslope of his career. I will be targeting opposing offenses against him early and often this season.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
Lance McCullers
	FanDuel					DraftKings
	Salary:			$8,800		Salary:			$9,500
	Salary Rank:			5 of 18		Salary Rank:			5 of 18
	2016	14	3.68	3.22	30.1%	12.8%	13.0%	57.3%	21.1%	25.4%

McCullers is by far the most talented pitcher in the Astros’ rotation. He has a 94 MPH fastball with a devastating curve that makes hitters look lost. He finished the 2016 season with a 3.68 SIERA and a massive strikeout rate of 30.1%. The only drawback is his command. When you are throwing that hard and that many breaking pitches, you tend to walk more batters than most. That was the case with McCullers last season (12.8% walk rate). Walks are just fine every now and then though, especially when he makes up for it with a high ground ball rate (good for turning double plays). A quick glance at the Mariners’ projected lineup below shows that this is far from an ideal matchup, but McCullers has as much upside as any pitcher in the slate. There really isn’t a single ace to feel great about tonight, so I have no issue using McCullers in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

There are three things that I try to stay away from when it comes to a matchup with a pitcher: a high strikeout rate (check), a high ground ball rate (check), and a low hard contact rate (check). Lance McCullers may walk a few too many batters, but that’s not enough of a reason to like the Mariners’ offense tonight. Even though Seattle has some tremendous power bats against right-handed pitching in Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager, I will be siding with McCullers and the Astros in this one.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.384	0.188	30.3%	5.1%	12.4%	SS	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,000
2	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.323	0.188	37.3%	8.9%	15.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.396	0.272	38.7%	8.0%	13.0%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,100
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.366	0.229	34.9%	8.5%	24.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.390	0.231	40.9%	11.9%	14.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,800
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.321	0.137	30.9%	7.2%	23.6%	3B	$2,500	3B/OF	$3,000
7	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.299	0.135	29.9%	9.3%	25.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.327	0.266	33.8%	7.9%	34.3%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.303	0.104	17.4%	7.9%	11.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The DFS community as a whole continues to get sharper, as there are more places than ever to get picks, projections, and advice. With that said, I really hope the masses cling to the Giants and Indians tonight, which would lead to a lower ownership for the Astros. Given their home run power, I would argue that they have more upside than either of those offenses. As mentioned above, Hisashi Iwakuma is a declining pitcher that is coming off of a mediocre year at best. He allowed a 32% had contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters and has a below-average strikeout rate. This matchup is tailored for the Astros, who tend to struggle against high strikeout pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	FD Pos.	FD Salary	DK Pos.	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.336	0.164	31.3%	11.6%	24.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.344	0.228	29.9%	6.5%	24.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.395	0.196	32.7%	7.7%	8.3%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,400
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.360	0.186	36.0%	10.3%	21.2%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,400
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.340	0.204	33.6%	5.8%	16.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
6	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.371	0.163	32.8%	9.6%	11.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
7	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.319	0.135	23.8%	5.2%	10.4%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,900
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.334	0.181	37.5%	10.7%	19.4%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000
9	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.346	0.128	21.4%	7.0%	8.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 4th

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Stackability Rating System:

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Daniel Robertson Steve Souza

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann

Stackability – GREEN

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