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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-31 00:42:27

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 12:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb R.A. Dickey philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.319 26.4% 9.3% 16.6% 43.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.320 31.5% 7.6% 17.9% 37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.342 29.5% 8.3% 17.4% 46.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.295 31.6% 6.0% 23.9% 42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 25 4.92 4.06 16.8% 8.8% 48.5% 26.1% 24.0%
L30 5 4.06 3.38 21.2% 6.6% 51.0% 23.2% 24.2%

There are technically 17 games on the schedule today, as we have a doubleheaders in Philadelphia and New York. Since the second games of both doubleheaders aren’t included in the main slate, we will exclude those from today’s Grind Down.

Dickey has pitched surprisingly well since the All-Star break. Over his last five starts, he has a 3.38 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. Even more impressive is his 24% soft contact rate and his 23% hard contact rate. I wouldn’t call him a great play in the early slate, but the Phillies have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. Even more, Dickey has had success against them in the past. In 89 plate appearances, the current Phillies’ roster has a .289 wOBA with only four extra-base hits against Dickey.

Quick Breakdown: I have slight interest in both of these pitchers as cheap SP2s in the early slate, but keep in mind that the total is set at 9.0 runs.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.05 3.65 20.6% 5.2% 40.7% 30.8% 20.0%
2017 23 4.67 4.36 20.8% 9.2% 38.6% 32.7% 15.2%
L30 6 4.90 3.34 20.6% 10.3% 32.7% 30.3% 15.2%

Eickhoff is one of the top pitching options in the early slate, especially if you are looking to pair Carlos Martinez or Stephen Strasburg with a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. He has an average strikeout rate on the year, but draws a favorable matchup against the Braves, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Atlanta may not strikeout as often as we’d like, but everything can’t be perfect in a small six game slate that features more gas cans than aces. It also helps that Freddie Freeman has been nursing a wrist injury that has hurt his power numbers over the last couple of weeks.

Quick Breakdown: Eickhoff is an elite SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves might be playing in a home run friendly ballpark, but their matchup against Jerad Eickhoff is mediocre at best. Since the start of last season, Eickhoff has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. This would typically be a good spot to fire up Freddie Freeman as a one-off target, but I’m worried about his power with that wrist injury. He’s stated that it’s only 80-85% healthy and that has shown, as he hasn’t hit a home run in any of his last ten games. I’m a bit higher on Eickhoff than I am the Braves’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.323 0.279 0.106 25.1% 6.3% 14.5% 42.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.325 0.305 0.151 26.9% 3.7% 11.1% 51.4% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.454 0.434 0.319 34.4% 13.9% 15.0% 35.5% 1B $3,900 1B/3B $5,300 1B $10,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.326 0.336 0.115 35.4% 11.0% 17.4% 45.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.329 0.311 0.210 32.6% 6.2% 15.7% 36.9% C $3,200 C $3,400 C $6,600
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.368 0.354 0.269 40.1% 6.7% 23.1% 36.9% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,500
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.312 0.280 0.156 39.2% 5.7% 20.0% 40.0% 2B $3,100 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.258 0.294 0.090 29.7% 10.6% 22.3% 49.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.112 0.138 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 77.4% P $7,000 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies have been a completely different offense since calling up Rhys Hoskins. In 19 games, he has racked up 21 hits, including 11 home runs and two doubles. If you pull up his game log, you can see that he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. His price is finally starting to reflect his production, but every once in a while, we just have to ride the hot streak until it ends. As far as the Phillies’ matchup is concerned, there isn’t a lot to love here. R.A. Dickey has been in good form since the All-Star break and he’s held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate since the beginning of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.346 0.305 0.117 21.6% 9.4% 20.9% 49.7% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.312 0.290 0.162 28.1% 8.2% 19.9% 36.4% SS $3,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.353 0.336 0.212 41.5% 8.1% 27.0% 51.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.455 0.345 0.400 45.2% 9.1% 20.5% 32.3% OF $4,600 1B/OF $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.313 0.311 0.180 37.6% 5.4% 22.6% 42.4% 1B $2,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.277 0.297 0.160 27.7% 6.1% 15.3% 44.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
7 Pedro Florimon SWITCH 0.175 0.210 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 33.3% 60.0% OF $2,400 2B/OF $2,600 SS $5,200
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.310 0.289 0.242 27.2% 7.7% 34.8% 47.6% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.065 0.106 0.000 0.0% 9.1% 54.5% 80.0% P $8,700 P $10,200 P $19,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Cleveland NY Yankees
clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer nyyankeesmlb Jaime Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-123 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.328 36.2% 8.2% 24.2% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 0.278 25.8% 4.4% 23.7% 51.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.324 30.8% 8.9% 21.9% 53.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.324 32.1% 9.6% 18.1% 56.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 25 3.85 4.59 26.1% 8.5% 45.9% 35.3% 14.8%
L30 5 3.38 2.45 28.8% 6.5% 43.3% 33.3% 17.8%

The advanced pitching stats have suggested some positive regression for Bauer for quite some time now. We are finally starting to see the results follow. In his last five starts, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s actually fared well against the Yankees in his career, but it’s always difficult to trust the visiting pitcher in Yankee Stadium. On the season, the Yankees are ranked second in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is a tough sell at this price point. He’s listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 23 4.69 4.52 18.0% 9.6% 54.0% 30.5% 21.4%
L30 5 5.35 5.47 18.2% 13.2% 48.2% 41.0% 15.7%

Garcia hasn’t been sharp in his last five outings, posting a 5.35 SIERA with a walk rate of 13%. He is a pitcher that relies on ground balls and soft contact and he’s struggled to get both over the last month of play. When ground ball pitchers don’t have high strikeout rates, they are basically at the mercy of BABIP with each and every start. If the ground balls find holes, that pitcher is going to be in trouble. When the ground balls are hit at infielders, he’s likely to succeed. I’d rather take a shot on one of the two pitchers in the Phillies’ game.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia comes into the start in bad form and draws a difficult matchup against the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians draw a fairly mediocre matchup against Jaime Garcia. While his recent form has been off, he still induces a ground ball rate of 57% when facing right-handed hitters. I expect the Indians to manufacture some runs here, but I’m not sure they have the upside that I’m looking for when it comes to a stack. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion are all viable targets, but there are better matchups in this slate. I will say that Yandy Diaz is arguably the best value play in the slate, as he is batting clean-up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.368 0.355 0.208 43.0% 7.5% 14.1% 39.5% SS $4,100 SS $5,300 SS $10,200
2 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.292 0.303 0.130 21.7% 7.6% 23.8% 32.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.343 0.334 0.184 31.6% 7.4% 12.2% 42.4% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
4 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.287 0.374 0.091 66.7% 12.0% 28.0% 53.3% 3B $2,000 3B/OF $3,100 3B $6,000
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.322 0.311 0.222 37.8% 7.5% 25.2% 29.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.317 0.336 0.175 32.7% 12.2% 9.2% 51.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.292 0.298 0.167 32.4% 15.2% 28.8% 47.2% C $2,800 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.285 0.271 0.067 22.7% 6.1% 24.2% 61.0% OF $2,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.221 0.235 0.049 25.7% 2.4% 14.3% 42.9% 3B $2,300 3B $2,700 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Yandy Diaz

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Of these two offenses, I prefer the Yankees over the Indians. Trevor Bauer is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a lot of hard contact this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees have the seventh most home runs of any team in baseball. Bauer’s splits are fairly neutral, as he has allowed a .328 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Gary Sanchez is the top catching option in the slate, but he costs a pretty penny across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.361 0.340 0.203 34.0% 11.8% 18.0% 41.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.359 0.332 0.220 29.8% 15.6% 17.0% 42.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.377 0.371 0.256 35.8% 7.4% 23.7% 43.5% C $3,700 C $4,700 C $9,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.370 0.292 0.233 27.2% 4.4% 12.2% 39.2% SS $3,000 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.353 0.313 0.183 31.7% 3.8% 19.2% 48.5% 2B $2,900 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.238 0.325 0.103 41.0% 14.3% 27.1% 31.6% 1B $2,000 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.349 0.331 0.133 32.1% 12.9% 23.4% 43.7% 1B $3,600 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.341 0.331 0.157 26.0% 10.3% 13.8% 44.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
9 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.322 0.340 0.178 29.3% 13.2% 22.0% 38.3% 3B $3,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,800

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

St. Louis Milwaukee
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.323 34.8% 11.1% 20.0% 53.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.289 31.8% 7.9% 21.2% 34.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.242 26.2% 5.8% 26.8% 55.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.359 0.337 37.8% 8.2% 19.8% 38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $12,200 Salary: $23,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 26 3.85 3.48 25.3% 8.4% 51.7% 32.1% 20.0%
L30 5 3.76 3.27 23.0% 6.7% 57.0% 25.3% 26.3%

Whether you are playing on a single pitcher site or a multi-pitcher site, you will likely be faced with the decision between Martinez and Strasburg in the early slate. They are clearly the top two options and they are priced similarly across the industry. I am giving the slightest of edges to Martinez for two reasons. First, he draws the better strikeout matchup of the two. On the season, Milwaukee has the highest k-rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The second reason is that Martinez gets to face a right-handed heavy offense. Since the beginning of last season, Martinez has held righties to a .242 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate and a 56% ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: The two aces in the early slate are close, but I’m giving Martinez the slightest of edges.

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.68 4.39 18.6% 8.2% 36.1% 36.6% 17.2%
2017 18 4.24 2.87 23.3% 7.9% 37.7% 32.9% 19.3%
L30 2 4.98 2.70 22.7% 11.4% 34.6% 29.6% 25.9%

Considering the fact that Anderson’s first two starts back from injury came on the road against the Rockies and Dodgers, he’s actually pitched pretty well. Those are two of the toughest matchups in baseball. He hasn’t had an amazing year overall, but he boasts a 23% strikeout rate and is playing in a slate with very few intriguing options outside of Martinez and Strasburg. The issue here is twofold. We usually prefer righties against the Cardinals because of their right-handed heavy lineup, but Anderson has reverse splits. The other problem is that he’s overpriced.

Quick Breakdown: I have much more interest in Martinez than Anderson. Chase’s reverse splits could be troublesome in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals made quick work of Matt Garza last night, which shouldn’t have surprised anyone given his form. They draw a tougher matchup today against Chase Anderson, but this is actually a spot that should benefit the right-handed heavy lineup of the Cardinals. Since the start of last season, Anderson has allowed a .337 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The one lefty that also deserves consideration is Matt Carpenter, who has seemingly offended the DraftKings’ pricing algorithm. He is consistently too cheap.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.371 0.379 0.218 43.5% 16.5% 18.5% 24.7% 1B $3,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.382 0.355 0.176 36.4% 12.2% 23.7% 53.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.370 0.344 0.259 38.7% 2.5% 28.9% 34.4% SS $3,500 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,600
4 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.373 0.374 0.245 37.8% 14.4% 20.1% 38.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.298 0.305 0.119 33.8% 4.6% 15.5% 46.9% C $3,200 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.320 0.344 0.136 28.5% 12.7% 20.3% 47.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.358 0.322 0.150 27.8% 8.5% 14.2% 46.5% 2B $3,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
8 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.340 0.335 0.090 18.5% 13.0% 20.5% 46.5% 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,400
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.126 0.155 0.000 9.7% 2.3% 23.3% 80.0% P $9,800 P $12,200 P $23,600

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Dexter Fowler, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

Throughout his career, Carlos Martinez has been dominant against right-handed hitters, which means we can automatically rule out more than half of the Brewers’ lineup. Martinez has struggled a bit with lefties in the last two seasons, allowing a .323 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw are both interesting leverage plays in tournaments, but I’m not sure we need them in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.379 0.348 0.282 41.0% 14.8% 27.0% 38.4% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,400 1B $6,800
2 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.361 0.359 0.199 33.0% 9.8% 13.3% 36.6% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.346 0.335 0.221 38.5% 8.3% 21.3% 47.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.390 0.362 0.269 39.1% 10.7% 20.8% 43.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.353 0.329 0.193 36.7% 11.8% 30.4% 47.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.322 0.314 0.215 34.0% 8.5% 19.5% 37.1% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,600
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.313 0.296 0.217 36.0% 7.1% 38.1% 42.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.317 0.277 0.159 28.8% 4.6% 19.0% 51.9% SS $2,700 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.143 0.100 0.030 12.5% 0.0% 51.5% 53.8% P $8,400 P $9,100 P $17,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Seattle Baltimore
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-132 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.324 31.1% 8.6% 17.2% 44.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.395 0.340 32.7% 11.1% 22.1% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.321 33.1% 8.4% 20.6% 28.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.331 34.0% 9.9% 18.4% 50.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 26 4.89 4.62 20.3% 8.7% 31.6% 31.0% 21.6%
L30 6 4.56 5.81 25.6% 10.2% 25.0% 42.4% 24.7%

Miranda is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. Meanwhile, the Orioles are a right-handed heavy offense that hits a lot of home runs. Right off the bat, this doesn’t appear to be a favorable matchup for Miranda and once we look at the Vegas line, he becomes an easy fade in all formats. He is currently listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 11.0 runs. The Orioles are often thought of as a team that can’t hit left-handed pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They are actually ranked 13th in team wOBA against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Miranda in a road start against the Orioles.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 21 4.60 6.57 20.5% 9.5% 44.4% 36.2% 18.2%
L30 5 4.01 5.27 23.0% 6.4% 41.4% 35.6% 20.7%

Jimenez has been in good form over his last five starts, at least by his standards. During that stretch, he has a 4.01 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 6%. While that’s good to see if you are an Orioles’ fan, nobody is expecting him to pitch this well moving forward. We have three years of bad Ubaldo sample size to lean on. He’s a pitcher that isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters, he gives up a lot of hard contact, and he’s one of the worst in baseball at holding runners.

Quick Breakdown: Anytime a game has a total of 11.0 runs, we can basically rule out both of the starting pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Over the last two seasons, Jimenez has allowed a .330+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a ton of stolen bases. The Mariners get to face him in a hitter-friendly ballpark and make for one of the best stacks in the slate. Everyone’s attention will be on the Orioles and on the game in Coors Field, which should lead to fairly low ownership for the Mariners. I absolutely love the one through five stack here. Jean Segura provides stolen base upside, while Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager all boast a .369+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.331 0.293 0.122 25.1% 4.6% 16.3% 54.6% SS $2,900 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
2 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.383 0.387 0.244 34.5% 14.0% 22.9% 31.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.362 0.380 0.214 37.1% 8.9% 10.3% 50.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.390 0.384 0.289 39.1% 7.2% 21.7% 40.2% OF $4,200 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.325 0.369 0.187 38.4% 8.7% 15.8% 31.7% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.295 0.275 0.133 25.9% 5.4% 25.3% 48.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.323 0.296 0.111 26.3% 8.8% 20.4% 43.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.336 0.314 0.254 37.5% 8.4% 37.0% 33.1% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,800
9 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.292 0.262 0.086 14.9% 6.3% 14.0% 50.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 LF $6,800

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Yonder Alonso, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mike Zunino

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are also an intriguing stack in the early slate, although they are priced up on DraftKings. It’s really tough to find enough salary cap space to fit more than a couple Orioles’ hitters. As far as the matchup goes, it’s a favorable one. Ariel Miranda is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He also has a high walk rate, which can turn solo home runs in to two, three, or four run shots. My favorite three plays here are all at the top of the order. Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop all boast a .350+ wOBA and a .185+ ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.359 0.335 0.186 35.4% 8.8% 27.2% 46.8% SS $3,800 SS $5,100 SS $10,000
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.353 0.394 0.252 46.4% 7.0% 16.1% 42.2% 3B $4,000 3B $5,600 3B $10,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.391 0.372 0.293 39.6% 8.8% 24.1% 44.0% 2B $3,800 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.319 0.322 0.176 32.0% 6.6% 19.0% 40.4% OF $3,500 OF $5,200 CF $10,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.293 0.313 0.123 31.9% 4.4% 26.3% 52.1% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.304 0.309 0.124 33.3% 11.5% 39.7% 33.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.321 0.274 0.164 30.9% 6.2% 21.5% 44.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.359 0.360 0.149 40.0% 3.8% 25.6% 34.5% C $3,100 C $3,600 C $7,200
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.300 0.311 0.148 30.8% 8.3% 26.7% 52.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Detroit Colorado
detroitmlb Justin Verlander coloradomlb Chad Bettis
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-115 12.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.284 29.4% 9.3% 29.1% 30.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.301 26.5% 8.5% 17.4% 54.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.310 34.1% 6.0% 23.3% 35.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 0.356 34.2% 5.4% 16.0% 46.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 27 4.39 3.90 23.6% 9.3% 33.0% 35.7% 17.4%
L30 6 3.43 2.14 29.0% 5.6% 30.1% 32.4% 23.8%

Verlander is one of the most talented pitchers in the slate and he comes into today’s start in excellent form, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% in his last six starts. He’s also cheap across the industry. Obviously, this is because he is pitching in Coors Field. He doesn’t throw a ton of curveballs (which are effected by the altitude), but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. To have success in this ballpark, he’s going to need to rack up ten strikeouts. If the Rockies make good contact and get the ball in the air, it could be a rough outing for Verlander.

Quick Breakdown: This game has a total of 12.0 and Verlander is a small underdog. He’s a tough sell today, even at this price point.

Chad Bettis
chad-bettis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.39 4.79 17.0% 7.3% 51.2% 30.5% 17.2%
2017 3 4.89 3.79 14.1% 3.9% 40.7% 29.7% 18.8%
L30 3 4.89 3.79 14.1% 3.9% 40.7% 29.7% 18.8%

Bettis was a mediocre pitcher last season and he hasn’t been great in his first three starts this season. He has a below-average strikeout rate and his ground ball rate is down considerably this season. While the Tigers’ offense has been struggling over the last few weeks, this is still Coors Field that we are talking about. There is a reason why the game has a total of 12.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bettis in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers might get overlooked in this slate. They haven’t exactly been seeing the ball well recently and they’ve nearly been in as many fights as close games over the last couple of weeks. The good news is that they get to face Chad Bettis in a day game at Coors Field. Bettis has reverse-splits, which bodes well for this right-handed heavy lineup. Since the start of last season, Bettis has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. Don’t be scared to load up on the Tigers in tournaments. And don’t be scared to play Miguel Cabrera for $3,500 on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.295 0.308 0.125 34.7% 9.1% 13.4% 34.7% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $9,000
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.321 0.308 0.083 34.0% 6.8% 18.9% 47.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.354 0.344 0.234 42.9% 11.3% 30.2% 35.8% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 LF $10,200
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.300 0.381 0.157 44.8% 9.2% 20.7% 40.7% 1B $3,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.295 0.335 0.149 45.3% 7.3% 25.8% 38.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.333 0.312 0.145 36.0% 7.1% 23.0% 48.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.275 0.313 0.118 40.0% 6.7% 24.9% 38.7% C $3,300 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.285 0.256 0.124 29.8% 4.1% 14.9% 54.2% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
9 Justin Verlander RIGHT P $8,000 P $9,200 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Alex Presley, Nick Castellanos, Mikie Mahtook, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies draw a difficult matchup against Justin Verlander, but in Coors Field, there really isn’t such a thing as a difficult matchup. As long as they don’t strikeout ten times, they should be able to make good contact against a fly-ball pitcher. We know good things happen in this ballpark when you get the ball in the air. The one through five stack is firmly in play here. As far as individual plays go, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Gerardo Parra are all elite options at their respective positions. Something tells me that we finally get a high scoring game in Coors today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.428 0.368 0.306 39.1% 9.0% 20.7% 35.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,100 CF $9,900
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.318 0.321 0.065 27.5% 8.0% 13.9% 57.6% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.355 0.332 0.233 35.6% 8.4% 17.5% 36.7% 3B $4,600 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
4 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.377 0.330 0.196 41.1% 5.0% 14.6% 47.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.387 0.337 0.259 36.0% 10.0% 27.9% 41.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.305 0.301 0.133 28.3% 10.8% 19.7% 45.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.298 0.304 0.100 21.7% 7.5% 11.3% 52.6% C $3,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.268 0.255 0.135 34.1% 9.3% 35.8% 36.5% SS $3,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 Chad Bettis RIGHT 0.173 0.166 0.000 0.0% 20.0% 60.0% 0.0% P $5,700 P $6,400 P $12,600

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious