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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 15th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-04-16 05:36:55

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-155 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 25.6% 8.8% 17.2% 32.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 29.1% 10.8% 19.0% 43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 26.2% 3.1% 21.6% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 20.4% 6.5% 21.4% 53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 34 4.21 3.57 19.4% 5.8% 40.3% 26.2% 20.5%

The early slate kicks off with one of the worst rated pitchers on the slate. Jeremy Hellickson is a +155 underdog in a game that features an over/under of eight. Hellickson has average stuff including a fastball that tops out in the mid-90s. His ERA of 3.57 was slightly better than his SIERA of 4.21. There will be opportunities to use Hellickson this season but today isn’t one of them. The Nationals are generally pretty solid against right-handed pitching.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 34 4.29 2.83 20.3% 8.5% 49.0% 24.4% 23.1%

The Phillies were a popular team to pick on with right-handed pitching in 2016. They had the second-lowest wOBA (.298) and fifth-highest strikeout rate (23.4%). Tanner Roark is a fringe play on one pitcher sites and a decent SP2 on two pitcher sites. He had a 20.3% strikeout rate last season and induced groundballs 48% of the time. The only knock on Roark here is his 8.4% walk rate is higher than we would ideally want to see.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

In general, this Phillies lineup hits too many ground balls and strikes out too much to target against Roark. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera and Howie Kendrick would ideally be the best options. Hernandez is the best of the three given that he fills 2B and offers some stolen base upside. HIs 53.3% groundball rate against right-handers makes him nothing better than a secondary play though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.335 0.116 26.7% 11.3% 18.3% 53.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.318 0.139 35.2% 7.6% 17.6% 58.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.363 0.159 29.2% 9.6% 19.5% 42.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.301 0.159 29.7% 6.7% 16.5% 44.3% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.195 37.7% 11.1% 27.8% 38.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.310 0.220 35.6% 4.9% 23.5% 39.4% 1B $2,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.299 0.170 32.2% 6.2% 27.0% 47.9% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.303 0.181 27.7% 4.8% 22.8% 40.2% SS $2,400 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.198 0.068 3.2% 5.8% 34.6% 75.0% P $7,300 P $7,100 P $14,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Washington

The Nationals certainly have plenty of power against right-handed pitching. There are several cash game plays and a minimum stack is certainly not out of the question. The best options are the left-handers in Harper and Murphy. Especially Murphy who has a .425 wOBA and strikes out at just a 9.6% clip against right-handers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.355 0.170 32.2% 9.3% 17.1% 49.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.328 0.178 35.6% 8.2% 19.3% 35.9% 3B $2,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.358 0.198 35.2% 18.7% 15.9% 39.2% OF $4,600 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.425 0.262 41.2% 5.8% 9.6% 35.8% 2B $3,800 2B $4,500 2B $8,800
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.291 0.158 32.7% 5.0% 24.4% 45.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.299 0.140 31.6% 11.0% 24.8% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.327 0.190 32.3% 6.9% 17.2% 36.9% C $2,900 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.308 0.039 19.5% 13.6% 16.9% 58.5% SS $2,200 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,200
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.159 0.000 7.0% 6.3% 25.4% 55.9% P $8,600 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

St. Louis at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

St. Louis NY Yankees
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-112 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 32.8% 10.5% 19.3% 53.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 19.6% 9.4% 23.8% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 25.6% 5.8% 25.3% 58.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 25.4% 8.3% 18.5% 50.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 33 3.90 3.08 21.8% 8.3% 55.5% 29.6% 19.7%

Carlos Martinez has a decent strikeout rate of 21.8% and a groundball rate of 55.5%. The trouble with Martinez is that he can be prone to blowups from time to time as evidenced by his five innings, six run game against the Reds last week. Today, he has a tough matchup against a Yankees lineup that features several good lefties. He’s also an underdog pitching opposite of C.C. Sabathia. GIven that Martinez isn’t priced at a discount he’s relatively easy to avoid in this spot.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 32 4.42 3.78 19.3% 8.7% 49.8% 24.7% 24.4%

While I’m not going out of my way to attack Sabathia with Cardinal bats today I’m also not likely to use CC Sabathia in this matchup. The Cardinals were 18th in strikeout % last season at 20.4% against left-handers. Sabathia averages just over seven strikeouts per nine innings which isn’t going to be enough to compensate for any trouble he runs into against this Cardinals lineup.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The best options here are the Cardinals bats that hit left-handed pitching well. Stephen Piscotty owns a .398 wOBA against left-handers while Aledmys Diaz owns a .316 wOBA against left-handers. As far as Carpenter, he actually owns a slightly better wOBA against left-handers even in a same-handed matchup. He’s a high OBP guy (.380 in 2016) who will almost never get you a zero.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.374 0.179 35.1% 12.8% 14.7% 50.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.316 0.141 28.6% 8.5% 12.1% 47.3% SS $3,600 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.340 0.167 29.6% 12.5% 19.6% 34.4% 2B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.398 0.243 28.7% 12.8% 16.8% 37.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.342 0.112 29.8% 8.2% 12.7% 48.8% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.332 0.234 35.1% 3.9% 23.5% 35.1% 1B $2,300 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
7 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.214 0.118 25.0% 4.4% 24.2% 39.1% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,300 3B $6,400
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.345 0.256 37.4% 9.1% 26.6% 34.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
9 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.315 0.167 33.0% 9.4% 18.2% 35.7% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

I’m not going out of my way to target Carlos Martinez here as he owns an elite groundball rate. With that said, there are a lot of good pitchers on this slate meaning we have to target a few less than perfect matchups. If the Yankees get to Martinez, the left-handers in Ellsbury, Gardner, and Bird will be involved. Ellsbury and Garnder hit a few too many groundballs for my liking though while Bird owns a .120 wOBA against right-handed pitching. These are secondary options at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.333 0.107 26.1% 12.6% 16.1% 51.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.326 0.131 27.4% 9.6% 12.3% 47.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.342 0.192 35.2% 10.0% 16.9% 51.7% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.315 0.159 30.7% 3.4% 19.1% 50.4% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.330 0.167 32.2% 10.6% 26.0% 42.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.120 0.050 40.0% 9.1% 45.5% 22.2% 1B $2,300 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
7 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.325 0.250 50.0% 7.5% 36.8% 41.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.247 0.113 24.2% 5.7% 19.3% 41.5% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.316 0.158 22.1% 2.7% 9.6% 50.8% 3B $2,100 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Greg Bird

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Alec Asher torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-145 9.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 34.0% 3.2% 9.7% 32.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 27.7% 9.2% 22.6% 35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.202 25.6% 4.1% 14.3% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 36.2% 8.7% 22.7% 32.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alec Asher
alec-asher-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 5 5.12 2.28 11.7% 3.6% 35.2% 30.4% 22.8%

The Orioles have recalled Alec Asher from AAA Norfolk to make the start today. Asher has started 12 major league games over the past two seasons as a member of the Phillies. He had an incredibly low strikeout rate of 11.2% which works out to a K/9 of under five. Even though the Blue Jays will feature a mostly right-handed lineup today, this is going to be a tall task for Asher. We obviously aren’t using Asher and will have interest in Blue Jays bats.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 31 4.33 3.61 22.6% 9.0% 34.4% 32.5% 20.3%

The Blue Jays and Orioles game has the second-highest total of the early slate at eight runs. Marco Estrada mainly throws just two pitches, a fastball, and a changeup. He had a 48.2% flyball rate last season. The Orioles have players that hit right-handed pitching well. There are several better options in the same range as Marco Estrada today. None of those have to face the Orioles in the hitter-friendly confines of the Rogers Center.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Targeting fly ball pitchers is a great way to find a home run but also a great way to find some long outs. Last season Estrada allowed 12 home runs to right-handers and 11 to left-handers. We don’t have to go out of our way to make sure the splits are in our favor here. Seth Smith has a .342 wOBA against right-handers and should be leading off. He’s slightly underpriced here and makes for a great option. I also don’t mind Adam Jones or any of the Orioles power hitters such as Trumbo, Davis and Machado. Even though I said stacking isn’t always the best option against a flyball pitcher the Blue Jays do not have a great bullpen. The Orioles stack is certainly in play on a day that features a decent amount of average or above average pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.342 0.181 33.9% 10.9% 20.3% 46.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.196 33.3% 5.8% 15.9% 44.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.359 0.253 35.0% 6.4% 18.2% 36.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.355 0.265 42.3% 14.1% 33.5% 36.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.388 0.296 39.2% 7.9% 25.0% 38.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.305 0.126 34.5% 6.3% 27.6% 39.4% C $3,000 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.365 0.122 30.5% 9.6% 14.5% 53.0% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.328 0.193 27.9% 3.0% 19.9% 43.3% 2B $2,600 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.291 0.116 31.2% 4.4% 16.9% 45.5% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – Seth Smith and Adam Jones

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Manny Machado

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Toronto

When targeting Asher we don’t have much of a sample to work with. He only pitched about 30 innings total last season in the majors. The Blue Jays have the highest implied team total today and are certainly a viable stack. The problem here is figuring out which Blue Jays to use. My favorite option here is Kendrys Morales. Last season Morales posted a .795 OPS. Using Statcast batted ball data Morales expected OPS should have been .941. Morales had the largest gap of any hitter between actual and expected OPS. Part of that is Morales’ lack of speed (other “unlucky” players included Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Joe Mauer) but some of it was just plain bad luck. A park upgrade should help Morales some this season. He has just one HR on the season but maybe today he’ll make it two.

If Devon Travis gets a favorable lineup position he’s in play as are the other Blue Jays power hitters in Troy Tulowitzki and Joe Bautista. Even Steve Pearce is worth adding to your stack if he’s in a favorable lineup spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.290 0.100 25.5% 4.7% 14.9% 49.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.349 0.207 40.0% 17.2% 21.7% 38.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.312 0.183 43.3% 9.0% 19.6% 48.3% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
4 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.198 34.7% 7.1% 18.4% 39.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.313 0.166 29.5% 10.9% 27.7% 47.0% C $2,300 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.335 0.146 29.2% 10.2% 16.9% 47.2% OF $2,700 1B/2B $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.286 0.097 26.3% 6.9% 16.3% 49.0% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,500 2B $4,800
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.334 0.155 30.4% 6.0% 20.2% 47.8% 2B $2,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.275 0.099 25.3% 8.9% 22.6% 57.2% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 RF $5,600

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Bautista

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Cincinnati
milwaukeemlb Zach Davies cincinnatimlb Brandon Finnegan
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-110 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 33.2% 5.6% 17.7% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 27.4% 11.9% 17.3% 42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 33.5% 6.3% 20.7% 49.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 38.0% 11.0% 21.2% 37.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 30 4.13 4.33 19.4% 6.0% 45.3% 33.8% 19.9%

The Brewers at Reds game features an 8.5 over/under. The pitchers here are mediocre at best which should leave us liking some bats. Zach Davies had a 4.33 ERA which nearly matched his 4.13 SIERA. He had a groundball rate a 45.3% which is broken up as 41% to left-handers and 41.3% to right-handers. He still allowed 33.8% hard contact which won’t play well at Great American ballpark. We’ll be able to target a couple of Reds bats here.

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 32 4.80 3.82 20.3% 11.2% 38.9% 35.6% 16.5%

Despite the 8.5 Vegas total here, I think you can get away with Brandon Finnegan as a SP2 on DraftKings or a tournament option on FanDuel. I don’t think you need to go here with pricing relatively soft, but you can. The Brewers strikeout at a 25% clip against left-handers which is second worst in the league. Finnegan owns a respectable strikeout % himself at 20.3%. The one concern with Finnegan is that he walks too many batters at 11.2%. That could be a slight problem against a Brewers offense that had a 10.2% walk rate against left-handers last year.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Jonathan Villar is off to a slow start this season with just eight hits so far. He managed to swipe three bases last night though to go with two walks and a double. He owns a .371 wOBA against left-handed pitching as is always a threat to swipe a bag when he gets on base. The other options here are Ryan Braun who has a .421 wOBA against lefties and Eric Thames who has homered in each of the last two games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.371 0.222 34.9% 10.4% 27.2% 39.8% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
2 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.402 0.239 40.0% 12.9% 27.7% 38.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.421 0.260 39.8% 11.2% 13.8% 51.3% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.275 0.193 28.7% 4.7% 25.8% 40.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.402 0.239 40.0% 12.9% 27.7% 38.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
6 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.499 0.100 42.9% 9.1% 27.3% 57.1% 1B $2,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.315 0.210 31.4% 8.5% 18.3% 26.0% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.340 0.151 33.3% 13.1% 23.0% 40.0% SS $2,300 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.042 0.000 11.8% 0.0% 32.0% 54.5% P $7,200 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar and Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cincinnati

The best option here is Joey Votto who owns a .418 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Davies allowed a .330 wOBA last year to right-handers. The other strong option here is Billy Hamilton who is a threat to steal a base any time he gets on. He also owns a respectable .309 wOBA against right-handers. If you are stacking the Reds, you can also toss in Jose Peraza, Tucker Barnhart and Adam Duvall though I wouldn’t use them as one-off plays in my cash game lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.309 0.081 18.5% 8.3% 19.3% 46.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.316 0.071 17.7% 1.7% 12.3% 43.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.418 0.253 40.9% 16.9% 15.6% 37.5% 1B $3,800 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.338 0.259 38.1% 6.1% 27.1% 33.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.308 0.139 34.1% 7.8% 23.6% 39.4% 3B $3,300 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.328 0.167 33.0% 7.5% 21.5% 52.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
7 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.327 0.163 29.8% 7.0% 15.9% 39.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.323 0.127 32.5% 9.6% 13.8% 44.4% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Brandon Finnegan LEFT 0.095 0.021 20.5% 1.9% 24.5% 71.0% P $7,400 P $6,800 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Minnesota
whitesoxmlb Jose Quintana minnesotamlb Ervin Santana
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-130 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 33.8% 4.4% 21.6% 53.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 28.2% 7.6% 17.0% 47.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 32.6% 6.6% 21.2% 36.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 30.7% 6.7% 22.4% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 34 4.03 3.36 21.4% 6.1% 39.8% 32.9% 18.0%

Last season, the Twins were one of the best teams to pick on with left-handed pitching. They struck out at a rate of 24.1%. They’ve been better this season at 22.5% though they still own a wOBA of just .278 against left-handers. Quintana was able to navigate this same Twins lineup last week for seven strikeouts in six innings with just two earned runs including one home run. I’m always leery of using a pitcher facing the same team twice in such a short period. Quintana is viable here but I would rather use Santana on the other side of this game as he’s favored and more likely to pick up the win.

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 32 4.31 3.20 19.7% 7.2% 42.8% 29.3% 19.1%

Ervin Santana is off to a hot start with just one run allowed in 13 innings this season. He doesn’t have the most strikeout upside of any pitcher as he checks in at just 19.2%. He does a great job of limiting damage though with a 42.8% groundball rate and 29.3% hard contact rate. He takes on a White Sox team that was 24th in wOBA against right-handers last season. Santana is my preferred SP2 for cash games on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Part of the reason I’m willing to use Santana is that I don’t see him having issues with this White Sox lineup. Avisail Garcia has been hitting the ball well with a .32 wOBA on the year. Assuming Santana can navigate around Garcia, Abreu, and Frazier, he’ll have no issues with the rest of this lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.300 0.131 22.5% 4.3% 20.9% 49.5% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.296 0.149 30.9% 3.0% 27.2% 50.6% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.343 0.152 30.9% 6.2% 17.7% 45.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.322 0.229 31.6% 9.5% 23.0% 37.7% 3B $3,500 1B/3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Cody Asche LEFT 0.261 0.124 31.9% 7.5% 25.4% 38.6% OF $2,300 3B/OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,400
6 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.317 0.139 30.6% 6.8% 25.7% 53.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
7 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.275 0.033 15.2% 11.7% 11.7% 43.0% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Jacob May SWITCH 0.051 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 85.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
9 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.335 0.195 24.2% 2.3% 18.2% 60.6% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Minnesota

The Twins have a couple of bats that could give Quintana some problems today. That starts with Miguel Sano who has a 40.2% hard contact rate. Robbie Grossman and Brian Dozier are also hitting the ball really well. All three could give Quintana some trouble and even a full stack with Kepler and Mauer added in is not out of the question here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.371 0.301 39.7% 9.7% 20.6% 32.5% 2B $3,800 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.421 0.225 36.2% 10.8% 21.0% 41.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.359 0.275 40.3% 13.4% 33.9% 34.3% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
4 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.268 0.089 31.6% 8.9% 18.5% 58.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.375 0.222 29.7% 4.4% 22.2% 31.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
6 Jason Castro LEFT 0.250 0.094 29.7% 12.6% 28.8% 48.4% C $2,800 C $2,800 C $5,600
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.239 0.022 13.2% 4.0% 26.0% 58.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.280 0.189 32.8% 9.2% 37.5% 30.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.166 0.057 22.5% 3.5% 24.6% 53.8% OF $2,000 OF/SS $2,900 IF/OF $5,600

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano and Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.