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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-28 03:13:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
Article Image Edinson Volquez Article Image Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-110 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 34.7% 10.7% 17.0% 46.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 26.6% 8.5% 16.6% 31.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 29.8% 7.4% 17.1% 54.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 26.4% 2.9% 21.2% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 4.72 5.37 16.3% 8.9% 51.2% 31.7% 19.5%
2017 4 4.07 4.82 24.7% 11.8% 38.5% 40.7% 13.0%

Volquez has a 24.7% strikeout rate through four starts this season, but it doesn’t seem sustainable. He has a career 19.6% strikeout rate and doesn’t have an increase in velocity or in his swinging strike rate. He walks a few too many batters and struggles with left-handed hitters. He draws a decent matchup against the Phillies, but this early slate is loaded with pitching option.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not buying Volquez long-term. I will be fading him more often than not.

Jeremy Hellickson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 4 5.39 1.88 11.1% 3.3% 28.8% 30.7% 17.3%

Hellickson hasn’t given up many runs this season, but his peripherals look awful. Through four starts, he has a 5.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.1%. His swinging strike rate is down and as I mentioned earlier, this early only slate is loaded with pitching options. The Marlins aren’t a team that we need to shy away from, but Hellickson doesn’t provide enough upside to warrant consideration in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Even though I’m not particularly intrigued with either pitcher, this game only has an over/under of 8.0 runs. Citizens Bank Park is a decent hitter’s park, but Jeremy Hellickson has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate. The Marlins don’t have a great track record against Hellickson, but Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton are all secondary plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.294 0.074 19.4% 5.2% 16.4% 57.2% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.304 0.106 25.9% 5.9% 11.0% 49.4% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.382 0.215 41.8% 12.3% 20.3% 54.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.334 0.235 39.3% 9.3% 29.9% 38.5% OF $4,300 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
5 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.326 0.176 36.7% 7.2% 20.0% 46.4% OF $3,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.352 0.123 30.8% 5.3% 15.8% 50.9% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,800
7 Justin Bour LEFT 0.343 0.224 36.1% 12.4% 17.1% 43.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.252 0.067 29.4% 5.1% 12.0% 48.6% SS $2,000 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Edinson Volquez RIGHT 0.196 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 80.0% P $6,300 P $7,000 P $13,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Edinson Volquez is a pitcher that we can target regularly. He is a fly-ball pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. He has also allowed a .339+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Phillies are never a popular offense to target, but they are playing in a good ballpark and have a decent implied run total. Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Maikel Franco are all viable options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.340 0.123 26.6% 10.8% 19.4% 52.8% 2B $3,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.290 0.106 30.2% 9.7% 31.1% 50.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.355 0.159 28.5% 9.6% 20.3% 43.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.295 0.157 29.6% 6.9% 16.3% 44.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.296 0.112 36.8% 7.8% 19.9% 36.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
6 Brock Stassi LEFT 0.320 0.176 41.7% 10.5% 26.3% 41.7% 1B $2,000 1B/OF $2,700 1B $5,400
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.300 0.176 27.6% 4.6% 23.0% 40.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.265 0.125 9.1% 11.1% 27.8% 45.5% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.182 0.063 5.7% 5.3% 33.3% 77.8% P $8,200 P $7,900 P $15,300

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Seattle Detroit
Article Image Hisashi Iwakuma Article Image Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-135 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 32.5% 5.0% 16.2% 40.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 27.2% 8.3% 30.5% 29.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 32.5% 7.0% 17.6% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 32.6% 5.3% 24.5% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Hisashi Iwakuma
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.43 4.12 17.6% 5.5% 40.8% 32.6% 16.8%
2017 4 5.87 5.31 10.8% 12.1% 42.9% 31.8% 25.4%

Iwakuma is quickly declining right before our eyes. He was once an above-average pitcher that we targeted on a regular basis in DFS. His days of dominating appear to be well behind him though. In four starts, he has a 5.87 SIERA with a higher walk rate (12.1%) than strikeout rate (10.8%). His velocity and swinging strike rate are both way down. He is an easy fade on the road against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.

Justin Verlander
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 4 4.32 6.04 22.2% 11.1% 34.8% 39.4% 7.6%

Verlander is one of the few intriguing plays in the early slate. He has not been sharp in his first four starts of the season, but he’s had three difficult matchups in a row. The Mariners may not be an elite offense, but they certainly aren’t a favorable matchup for a right-handed pitcher. The two big concerns that I have with Verlander are his high walk rate and his hard contact rate. They are both way up over where they were a year ago and we aren’t getting a huge discount given the recent form. Now that Noah Syndergaard has been scratched, Verlander is now firmly in play.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats, but I prefer Martinez dollar for dollar.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners’ offense has been on a roll in this series, but draw a difficult matchup against Justin Verlander. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. Verlander is a reverse-splits pitcher too, which basically takes Robinson Cano out of play. Nelson Cruz and Taylor Motter have been barreling up a lot of pitches recently and are both intriguing tournaments plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.384 0.188 29.8% 5.0% 12.6% 52.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.385 0.211 37.6% 11.2% 18.2% 41.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.392 0.263 38.2% 8.2% 12.4% 43.1% 2B $3,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.369 0.229 34.6% 9.0% 24.3% 44.0% OF $4,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.306 0.245 38.5% 9.6% 21.9% 38.5% SS $3,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
6 Daniel Vogelbach LEFT 0.224 0.000 27.3% 14.3% 33.3% 45.5% 1B $2,200 1B $2,100 1B $4,200
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.336 0.095 17.1% 12.0% 14.0% 48.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 LF $5,100
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.306 0.215 34.6% 6.8% 34.4% 29.2% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.299 0.095 16.6% 7.6% 11.1% 52.4% OF $3,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz (GPP), Taylor Motter (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Detroit

I’m a bit puzzled by the Vegas line. Hisashi Iwakuma has looked awful so far this season and he is facing the Tigers in Detroit. I know they are missing Miguel Cabrera, but this is still an offense that can put up runs quickly (19 of them on Tuesday night). The Tigers are one of my favorite offenses to target in the early slate, as Iwakuma has allowed a .330+ wOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.350 0.181 34.8% 7.2% 17.0% 33.8% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.324 0.152 34.5% 7.0% 25.0% 34.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,500 CF $4,800
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.371 0.215 39.5% 7.5% 24.5% 32.2% 3B $3,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.340 0.179 40.5% 8.0% 15.2% 37.4% C $2,900 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.343 0.234 39.0% 8.9% 28.0% 40.3% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.361 0.218 40.8% 17.5% 36.3% 42.9% C $2,700 1B/C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.749 0.444 62.5% 0.0% 11.1% 75.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,300 LF $4,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.234 0.082 29.4% 6.1% 27.2% 42.5% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,200
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.281 0.111 26.3% 5.8% 21.6% 46.1% SS $2,400 OF/SS $2,000 SS $4,000

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Tyler Collins, Nick Castellanos, Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

UPDATE: Noah Syndergaard has been scratched. Matt Harvey will start in his place.

Atlanta NY Mets
Article Image R.A. Dickey Article Image Noah Syndergaard
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-210 7.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 29.1% 9.8% 16.4% 39.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.297 31.8% 7.3% 29.2% 46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 30.8% 7.8% 17.7% 46.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.251 25.1% 3.2% 29.3% 56.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank: 15 of 20 Salary Rank: 14 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 3 4.35 3.86 15.7% 8.4% 52.5% 30.7% 19.4%

Dickey will have a good fantasy outing every now and then, but they are difficult to predict. Trying to chase a good outing from Dickey is a losing venture. If you look at his numbers as a whole, he has a below-average strikeout rate and he allows a high wOBA (.330+) to both left and right-handed hitters. To make matters worse, run support is going to be limited if there is any at all.

Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.

Noah Syndergaard
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 2.95 2.60 29.3% 5.8% 51.2% 28.1% 21.0%
2017 4 1.97 1.73 29.1% 0.0% 57.7% 27.8% 18.1%

Syndergaard was originally slated to pitch yesterday, but the start was pushed back a day. Robert Gsellman became an intriguing value play and we all know how that panned out. Should we be concerned about the Braves’ offense with Syndergaard on the mound? Absolutely not. He has a ridiculous 1.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 58%. The Braves are a contact offense, but Syndergaard throws more strikes than anyone, which is going to lead to favorable pitching counts or to early outs. Syndergaard is the top option in the early only and the all day slate, even though we have to pay a pretty penny for him.

Update: Syndergaard has been scratched from today’s start. Matt Harvey will get the nod instead. Harvey hasn’t been particularly good or bad this season, but is facing a Braves’ offense that gets a lot of quick outs. He is worth a look in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Every once in a while, an offense (like the Phillies) is going to get to Noah Syndergaard. That’s just how baseball works. However, over the course of the season, we want as little exposure to hitters facing him as possible. He has an elite strikeout rate, he rarely walks batters, and he doesn’t give up hard contact. The only exploitable stat is the number of stolen bases that he allows, but I don’t want to chase that because you can’t steal first base.

Update: With Matt Harvey on the mound, we can take a harder look at Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman, especially as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.312 0.116 26.1% 7.8% 13.7% 43.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.335 0.129 28.7% 3.1% 11.5% 47.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.422 0.306 43.3% 15.3% 22.4% 27.4% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.328 0.223 37.2% 5.2% 24.2% 39.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.340 0.154 33.5% 11.6% 16.1% 40.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
6 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.284 0.135 29.7% 3.4% 17.3% 52.6% 3B $2,200 3B $3,100 IF/OF $6,300
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.344 0.136 45.0% 8.3% 28.6% 45.7% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.265 0.092 31.8% 6.9% 24.9% 43.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.147 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 75.0% P $7,200 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays (Updated) – None

Secondary Plays (Updated) – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman

Stackability (Updated) – ORANGE

NY Mets

Whenever we have a knuckleball pitcher on the mound, I like to rely on BvP a bit more heavily. This didn’t work out earlier in the year when the Orioles faced Steven Wright, but in general, batters can either hit the knuckleball, or they can’t. R.A. Dickey has had quite a bit of success against the current roster of the Mets. In 149 plate appearances, they have a .222 batting average with 31 strikeouts. The two batters that have hit Dickey well are Asdrubal Cabrera and Jay Bruce.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.360 0.246 42.0% 11.0% 24.2% 36.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.339 0.196 35.0% 6.8% 18.2% 35.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.354 0.243 38.2% 8.4% 20.2% 36.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.292 39.7% 8.9% 20.1% 35.9% OF $3,600 1B/OF $3,500 RF $6,900
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.320 0.163 34.4% 9.8% 19.5% 35.8% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
6 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.336 0.226 36.0% 12.8% 19.8% 35.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.262 0.112 23.7% 6.8% 20.1% 35.6% 3B $2,100 3B $3,800 SS $7,500
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.277 0.084 32.3% 6.1% 17.1% 51.4% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.326 0.218 46.4% 12.3% 44.6% 29.2% P $11,500 P $12,700 P $24,600

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce (DK)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Toronto St. Louis
Article Image Mat Latos Article Image Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-175 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 29.1% 12.1% 11.5% 38.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 33.8% 11.5% 19.4% 53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 32.6% 7.7% 14.3% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.250 26.0% 5.7% 26.0% 57.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mat Latos
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 5.40 4.89 13.6% 9.7% 42.9% 30.1% 22.9%
2017 1 6.23 7.20 4.0% 12.0% 60.0% 40.0% 5.0%

Latos was scheduled to pitch yesterday, but the game was rained out. He is a pitcher that is well past his prime. In his last 13 starts, he has a SIERA over 5.50 with a strikeout rate under 14% and a high walk rate. The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t been great this season, but they should be able to knock Latos around a bit in a game being played in St. Louis.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Carlos Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 4 3.30 4.76 29.8% 10.6% 45.8% 36.7% 23.3%

Dollar for dollar, Martinez offers the best value of any pitcher in the early only slate. He has been a little wild at times this season, but we can live with it when he is striking out batters at a 29% clip. The Blue Jays are ranked dead last against right-handed pitching this season and won’t be able to utilize the DH in this ballpark. Basically, we can stream pitchers against Toronto until Josh Donaldson comes back. Martinez has massive upside and he’s too cheap on both FanDuel ($9,100) and DraftKings ($8,900).

Quick Breakdown: Elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Carlos Martinez is dominant against right-handed hitters, which doesn’t bode well for the Blue Jays, whose best hitters are righties. Martinez does struggle a bit against lefties (.328 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate), but do we really want to play Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak, or Chris Coghlan in this ballpark? It’s a pretty easy answer for me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.298 0.112 26.3% 4.8% 15.6% 49.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.288 0.107 24.1% 8.2% 22.4% 56.5% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.346 0.201 39.0% 17.3% 22.2% 38.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.317 0.192 40.3% 11.7% 36.4% 26.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 0.165 29.9% 11.4% 27.6% 47.6% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,800
6 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.273 0.130 28.7% 11.3% 25.3% 46.4% OF $2,100 3B/OF $2,100 IF/OF $4,200
7 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.325 0.157 31.1% 5.7% 19.9% 47.2% 2B $2,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.263 0.157 29.9% 6.6% 23.2% 50.8% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Mat Latos RIGHT 0.672 1.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% P $5,700 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

Mat Latos may be the worst pitcher in the early slate. The Cardinals’ offense is off to a slow start this season, but draw a slump-busting matchup today. Since the start of last season, Latos has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .366 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He also has a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. The first five batters in the Cardinals are in play here and we can stack them in cash games or tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.347 0.164 28.8% 13.8% 26.1% 36.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.376 0.239 31.9% 7.4% 12.8% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.383 0.251 46.1% 15.5% 19.6% 28.1% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.327 0.163 34.1% 6.9% 21.8% 46.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.314 0.225 39.5% 4.5% 31.2% 43.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
6 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.352 0.105 27.5% 16.0% 16.9% 46.8% 2B $2,200 3B/SS $2,700 3B $5,400
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.297 0.133 25.3% 10.3% 13.3% 48.0% 2B $3,000 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Eric Fryer RIGHT 0.296 0.073 16.7% 9.8% 22.0% 50.6% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.193 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 13.5% 76.2% P $9,100 P $8,900 P $17,400

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler (FD), Aledmys Diaz (FD), Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler (DK), Aledmys Diaz (DK), Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Washington Colorado
Article Image Gio Gonzalez Article Image Antonio Senzatela
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-108 11.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 27.3% 7.1% 19.1% 57.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 28.6% 6.4% 19.2% 55.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 33.8% 7.9% 22.8% 44.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.227 26.8% 1.9% 15.4% 39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 4 4.07 1.35 19.8% 7.6% 43.8% 30.3% 25.0%

On paper, Gonzalez has the profile of a pitcher that could succeed in Coors Field. He has a slightly above-average strikeout rate and can induce a lot of ground balls when things are going well. However, this is Coors Field and we don’t target pitchers not-named Clayton Kershaw here. If he can last five innings, I like his chances to pick up the win, but he may give up five runs in the process.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Antonio Senzatela
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $7,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 20 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 3.85 2.08 17.2% 4.0% 46.7% 27.6% 14.5%

Senzatela is making his fifth career major league start. He has pitched better than expected so far, but he didn’t show a ton of strikeout upside in the minors. He draws his toughest matchup to date, as he will have to face the likes of Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy in the best hitter’s park in baseball. There is a lot more risk than potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Antonio Senzatela has looked good in his first four major league starts, but we can throw all of that out the window. The Nationals are playing in Coors Field and they have the highest implied run total in the slate. As always with Coors, more exposure is better than less. You can make an argument for every position player in this lineup, even though we have to pay a premium in Coors.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.352 0.162 32.1% 9.2% 17.1% 50.6% OF $4,500 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.409 0.257 34.8% 4.5% 18.5% 43.0% SS $4,800 SS $5,600 IF/OF $10,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.372 0.224 35.5% 18.9% 15.5% 38.9% OF $5,400 OF $6,200 RF $12,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.299 0.162 33.8% 5.3% 24.4% 45.2% 1B $4,300 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.417 0.257 39.7% 5.6% 9.4% 35.0% 2B $4,400 2B $5,300 2B $10,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.330 0.169 34.8% 8.6% 18.4% 37.5% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
7 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.295 0.136 31.5% 10.7% 24.8% 42.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.316 0.177 31.9% 7.1% 17.5% 37.2% C $3,300 C $4,300 C $8,400
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.156 0.040 16.7% 1.8% 43.9% 50.0% P $6,300 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Gio Gonzalez isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but he has allowed a .320 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are excellent plays. That includes DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, and Trevor Story. Carlos Gonzalez is a pretty easy fade in the lefty/lefty matchup, but I still like Charlie Blackmon. He has a .371 wOBA against southpaws in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.371 0.158 27.0% 5.6% 14.3% 45.8% OF $4,900 OF $5,200 CF $10,000
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.400 0.183 37.2% 11.9% 13.8% 45.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.404 0.286 39.6% 13.1% 16.9% 30.9% 3B $4,800 3B $5,400 3B $10,500
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.317 0.201 38.6% 2.0% 26.8% 52.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.311 0.121 31.7% 10.7% 25.8% 49.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
6 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.419 0.352 56.6% 12.0% 33.1% 20.0% SS $4,100 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
7 Gerardo Parra LEFT =. OF OF OF
8 Dustin Garneau RIGHT 0.257 0.149 36.7% 5.8% 34.6% 26.7% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,600
9 Antonio Senzatela RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,100 P $4,900 P $7,800

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious