MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-09 02:48:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Tampa Bay					Toronto
			Jake Odorizzi					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -140					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.266	13	28.5%	26.1%	SP vs. Left	0.313	23	24.0%	13.9%
SP vs. Right	0.328	23	30.1%	17.6%	SP vs. Right	0.326	28	28.9%	16.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Odorizzi
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		29.0	FPPG:		15.6
					Pitcher Rating:		58.5	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	99.2	3.84	1.71	22.0%	3.3%	11.5%	31.9%	46.2%	18.5%
2016	23	101.7	4.02	3.70	22.5%	6.9%	9.6%	37.4%	43.3%	32.5%
2015	28	98.4	3.90	3.35	21.4%	6.6%	10.1%	37.3%	40.6%	27.0%

Odorizzi is coming off of a nice outing at home against the Royals. He struck out six batters in six scoreless innings of work. Unfortunately, tonight he has to take on the Blue Jays on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Odorizzi is one of the handful of pitchers that I generally try to avoid when he is pitching on the road because his splits at home are drastically better. I’m also worried about the fact that Odorizzi has serious reverse-splits and the Blue Jays have some great right-handed power bats. Pitching options are limited tonight, but we don’t need to look to Odorizzi.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		25.4	FPPG:		12.2
					Pitcher Rating:		50.4	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	91.6	4.74	5.97	17.9%	8.9%	12.5%	41.9%	36.0%	33.3%
2016	23	96.6	4.72	4.49	17.2%	8.4%	10.4%	44.3%	34.9%	31.0%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

Dickey hasn’t been in great form this season, posting a 4.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.2%. He will post a quality start every now and then, but the strikeout upside just hasn’t been there this season. While I like to pick on the Rays with right-handed pitchers, I have a hard time rostering Dickey in any league format tonight. The Blue Jays are favorites here, but the over/under for the game is set at 9.0 runs. This isn’t a great game to target the starting pitcher from either team.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Blue Jays may strikeout against right-handed pitching at one of the highest rates in baseball, but they are sneakily ranked sixth in team ISO. They draw a decent matchup tonight against R.A. Dickey in a hitter’s ballpark. The Rays haven’t had great success against Dickey in the past, but he has allowed 51 home runs in the last two seasons – 23 to left-handed hitters and 28 to right-handed hitters.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.9% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.27 (10 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.123	0.310	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.315	0.175	0.290	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.327	0.194	0.313	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,800
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.349	0.220	0.495	SS	$3,500	SS	$5,000
5	Nick Franklin	SWITCH	0.287	0.171	0.302	2B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,400
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.344	0.262	0.223	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300
7	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.314	0.166	0.326	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.298	0.198	0.284	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,400
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.169	0.061	0.152	C	$2,000	C	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.174	0.299	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who has allowed a .328 wOBA and 23 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Odorizzi has had some success against the Blue Jays in the past, but a lot of that came from starts in Tropicana Field. Devon Travis looks like a great cash game option if he is batting leadoff again. He hit not one, not two, but three home runs in Kansas City over the weekend.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.73 (6 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.373	0.199	0.441	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,000
2	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.380	0.275	0.295	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.398	0.268	0.362	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.282	0.331	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,900
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.339	0.190	0.233	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.323	0.178	0.323	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700
7	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.291	0.145	0.127	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,600
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.128	0.307	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
9	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.198	0.019	0.222	C	$2,100	C	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.187	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
San Francisco					Miami
			Johnny Cueto					Jose Fernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -145					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.273	11	28.0%	23.4%	SP vs. Left	0.319	8	34.3%	26.8%
SP vs. Right	0.292	20	27.5%	19.6%	SP vs. Right	0.222	6	26.6%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Johnny Cueto
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,700	Salary:		$12,400
					FPPG:		41.0	FPPG:		22.8
					Pitcher Rating:		76.7	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	4	106.3	3.68	4.18	25.0%	6.7%	9.2%	42.3%	40.8%	31.0%
2016	22	106.5	3.53	2.73	22.8%	5.0%	9.3%	50.2%	30.1%	26.4%
2015	32	102.1	3.81	3.44	20.3%	5.3%	9.9%	42.4%	35.6%	28.7%

If the Marlins were rolling out a pitcher like Adam Conley, Cueto would be one of the highest owned pitchers in the slate. However, with Jose Fernandez pitching opposite him, I expect Cueto to be severely under-owned. He is having a solid season overall, posting a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8% and a walk rate of only 5.0%. The Marlins may not strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching, but they do have the third lowest team ISO this season. Cueto is a great GPP play, especially if the Giants’ offense can somehow get to Fernandez.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Fernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$12,800
					FPPG:		45.0	FPPG:		25.3
					Pitcher Rating:		94.2	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	4	102.8	2.65	4.44	35.9%	7.6%	16.1%	35.6%	28.8%	28.8%
2016	21	100.6	2.57	2.87	36.4%	7.4%	14.9%	41.0%	30.0%	31.6%
2015	11	90.2	2.77	2.92	29.8%	5.3%	13.3%	40.1%	31.1%	29.4%

Fernandez will be the most popular pitching option in the slate tonight. He has been dominant this season, posting a 2.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36.4%. Every time he takes the mound, he has double-digit strikeout potential. The Giants aren’t a team that strikes out all that often, but I don’t worry about the matchup as much when we have an elite pitcher on the mound. The only concern here is potential run support, but Fernandez may only need a single run on his side to put himself in line to get the win.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Dodgers come into tonight’s game with the lowest implied team total on the board. Despite having a nice-looking lineup, they are ranked 17th in team wOBA and 27th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw the most difficult matchup on the schedule. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Jose Fernandez has been dominant against both left and right-handed hitters this season.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.2% (2 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.47 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.99 (18 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.345	0.126	0.367	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
2	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.331	0.128	0.328	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,800
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.369	0.199	0.468	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.352	0.145	0.344	C	$2,900	C	$3,300
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.333	0.201	0.281	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.364	0.177	0.268	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000
7	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.341	0.155	0.129	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,000
8	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.288	0.106	0.298	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500
9	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.111	0.000	0.000	P	$10,700	P	$12,400
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.137	0.276	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Miami

The Marlins are favored tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we want to target hitters against Johnny Cueto. In the last two seasons combined, Cueto has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. Christian Yelich could be the one batter to target here and he is a site-specific play. He is priced at a discount on FanDuel ($3,000) and he has a .370 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.7% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.31 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.51 (16 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.324	0.080	0.350	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.309	0.096	0.399	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,300
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.378	0.167	0.370	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.353	0.260	0.347	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.307	0.141	0.321	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.319	0.122	0.422	C	$2,200	C	$3,700
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.362	0.177	0.322	1B	$2,300	2B	$2,500
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.276	0.082	0.305	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,700
9	Jose Fernandez	RIGHT	0.236	0.098	0.000	P	$10,900	P	$12,800
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.136	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Atlanta					Milwaukee
			Rob Whalen					Zach Davies
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -155					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.326	1	42.9%	27.3%	SP vs. Left	0.300	7	30.5%	19.3%
SP vs. Right	0.402	0	28.6%	14.3%	SP vs. Right	0.289	7	34.5%	18.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Rob Whalen
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		58.7	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	1	98.0	6.06	7.20	20.0%	16.0%	6.1%	14.3%	64.3%	35.7%
2016	1	98.0	6.06	7.20	20.0%	16.0%	6.1%	14.3%	64.3%	35.7%

Whalen will be making his second career major league start tonight against the Brewers. He threw 98 pitches in his debut against the Dodgers, allowing four runs in five innings of work. He faced all nine batters in the first inning, but then pitched well after that. He has shown some nice upside in the minors, but he comes into tonight’s game as an underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. He draws a plus-strikeout matchup against the Brewers, but Whalen is a deep GPP flier at best.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		30.3	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		53.3	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	4	93.3	4.13	1.78	18.8%	5.2%	8.0%	47.9%	36.6%	32.9%
2016	19	92.6	4.13	3.57	19.6%	6.4%	7.9%	46.8%	33.2%	32.8%

I have mixed feelings on Davies tonight. On the one hand, he is facing a Braves’ offense that is ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. On the other hand, Atlanta is coming off of a nice offensive series in St. Louis and now they get a ballpark bump playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. My main concern with Davies is his strikeout upside. He has a k-rate under 20% on the season and the Braves have the eighth lowest strikeout rate against righties.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves’ offense spoiled a few outings for the Cardinals’ starters in St. Louis. They will look to carry some of that offensive momentum into their series against the Brewers. They come into the game with the 11th highest team total on the board, which actually isn’t bad relative to where they usually end up. Zach Davies has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, but he has a 32.8% hard hit contact rate this season.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.293 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.122 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.8% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.71 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (11 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.337	0.114	0.380	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
2	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.282	0.074	0.371	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.374	0.234	0.393	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,900
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.307	0.181	0.335	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.342	0.106	0.385	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,300
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.309	0.167	0.426	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,600
7	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.314	0.110	0.323	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,500
8	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.306	0.125	0.211	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
9	Rob Whalen	RIGHT			0.000	P	$6,500	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.139	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Erick Aybar, Matt Kemp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers are ranked 19th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season, yet they have the third highest run projection in the slate. They are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Miller Park and they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career major league start. A Brewers’ stack is in play for both cash games and GPPs.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.8% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.03 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.82 (3 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.349	0.131	0.485	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,100
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.128	0.377	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.362	0.213	0.503	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,500
4	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.272	0.071	0.363	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$4,500
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.310	0.230	0.319	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.318	0.194	0.327	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
7	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.222	0.000	0.254	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,500
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.248	0.078	0.353	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.063	0.000	0.146	P	$8,200	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.272	0.116	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Houston					Minnesota
			Collin McHugh					Tyler Duffey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -125					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.310	16	24.6%	21.2%	SP vs. Left	0.316	6	28.3%	22.8%
SP vs. Right	0.337	20	28.8%	20.8%	SP vs. Right	0.381	16	33.1%	15.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		69.4	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	4	88.3	2.97	5.95	30.7%	5.7%	11.3%	39.6%	41.5%	37.0%
2016	22	95.7	3.89	4.73	22.7%	6.6%	11.2%	43.1%	38.2%	29.8%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh is one of those pitchers that is either really good or really bad. There isn’t a lot in between, which makes him a tough player to trust in cash games. He is a nice tournament option tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. The upside is always there with McHugh and he is listed as a small favorite tonight on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Duffey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		21.6	FPPG:		9.4
					Pitcher Rating:		50.2	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	4	72.5	5.07	11.25	10.3%	6.4%	6.9%	46.9%	25.0%	33.9%
2016	18	90.6	4.12	6.21	17.8%	5.4%	8.0%	47.8%	28.3%	32.9%
2015	10	90.8	3.83	3.10	21.9%	8.3%	9.8%	49.7%	30.9%	26.6%

Duffey pitched well in his short stint last season, but he has been downright awful in 2016. He comes into this game in arguably his worst form of the season, posting a 5.07 SIERA (11.25 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 10.3% in his last four starts. The Astros are an offense that we don’t mind targeting right-handed pitchers against, but the best way to beat the Astros is by striking them out. Duffey just doesn’t have a high strikeout rate in his repertoire.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are missing a few key pieces in their offense right now. While I don’t love what I see toward the bottom of their lineup, the first five batters are intriguing plays tonight against Tyler Duffey. In the last two seasons combined, Tyler Duffey has allowed a .381 wOBA, 16 home runs, and a hard hit contact rate of 33.1% to right-handed hitters. Alex Bregman could finally be heating up. He has four hits in his last two games and he is dirt cheap across the industry.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.35 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (7 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.333	0.167	0.233	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.184	0.056	0.168	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.355	0.161	0.380	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,600
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.370	0.221	0.296	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,100
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.315	0.217	0.296	C	$3,300	C	$3,600
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.314	0.213	0.133	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
7	A.J. Reed	LEFT	0.256	0.122	0.151	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,300
8	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.277	0.093	0.338	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.316	0.185	0.115	C	$2,400	C	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.159	0.234	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins have been red-hot at the plate over the last few weeks. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Collin McHugh, who is also a reverse-splits pitcher. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .337 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters. There are a few sneaky plays from the Twins tonight, but I see their hitters as better GPP plays than cash game targets.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.62 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (9 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.323	0.204	0.473	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,900
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.332	0.123	0.536	1B	$3,200	1B	$5,200
3	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.396	0.329	0.461	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,300
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.366	0.245	0.364	OF	$3,300	3B/OF	$3,900
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.306	0.177		3B	$2,600	3B	$3,700
6	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.314	0.196	0.401	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
7	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.305	0.148	0.320	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.281	0.093	0.291	C	$2,700	C	$2,900
9	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.255	0.089	0.320	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.178	0.396	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Cincinnati					St. Louis
			Cody Reed					Michael Wacha
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -190					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.406	1	36.7%	19.5%	SP vs. Left	0.284	10	30.5%	19.4%
SP vs. Right	0.408	10	41.7%	19.5%	SP vs. Right	0.322	21	29.2%	20.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Cody Reed
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		17.1	FPPG:		7.0
					Pitcher Rating:		48.6	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	4	96.5	3.94	5.66	16.5%	7.2%	9.6%	62.5%	20.8%	40.3%
2016	8	91.4	4.05	7.30	19.5%	7.7%	9.9%	54.7%	26.3%	40.6%

Reed is a talented young left-handed pitcher that hasn’t been able to find his footing at the major league level. In his first eight starts, he has a 4.05 SIERA (7.30 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 19.5%. He does induce an elite ground ball rate, but when hitters have made contact, it has been great contact. He has allowed a 40.3% hard hit rate, which could help explain how he has already given up 11 home runs. I’m bullish on Reed moving forward, but see him as an easy fade tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Wacha
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		27.2	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		62.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	4	91.0	4.10	4.29	14.1%	4.4%	7.7%	58.3%	26.4%	29.3%
2016	22	95.2	4.19	4.35	19.4%	7.3%	8.3%	48.0%	29.3%	29.8%
2015	30	97.9	4.02	3.37	20.1%	7.6%	9.5%	45.8%	32.0%	29.7%

Wacha has been the definition of mediocre this season. In 22 starts, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4%. He is a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact. In terms of safety, there are few pitchers in the slate that I trust more. Wacha is a large favorite at home that gets to face a struggling Reds’ offense. The only concern here is his upside. However, six innings with five strikeouts and a win would easily pay off his cheap salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have one of the lowest run projections on the board tonight. They haven’t fared well against right-handed pitching this season and they traded away one of their best hitters in Jay Bruce. Michael Wacha doesn’t present a great matchup for the Reds, especially since this game will be played in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.34 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.73 (14 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.265	0.059	0.296	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.318	0.178	0.237	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.417	0.230	0.446	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,900
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.347	0.305	0.323	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,500
5	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.114	0.422	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.301	0.209	0.288	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.303	0.154	0.361	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.309	0.115	0.289	C	$2,300	C	$2,700
9	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.077	0.000	0.000	P	$5,600	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.295	0.152	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest run projection on the board. They aren’t a great offensive team against left-handed pitching, but they draw a favorable matchup against rookie Cody Reed. His numbers against right-handed hitters are likely unsustainable, but I need to point them out regardless. In his first eight starts, he has allowed a .408 wOBA and a 41.7% hard hit contact rate to righties.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.307 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.155 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.7% (13 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.97 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.77 (4 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.342	0.202	0.099	2B	$4,000	2B/3B	$4,300
2	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.316	0.128	0.282	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,000
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.426	0.263	0.185	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.326	0.204	0.319	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
5	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.299	0.137	0.382	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,100
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.295	0.187	0.284	SS	$3,100	3B	$3,500
7	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.279	0.059	0.465	C	$2,900	C	$3,100
8	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.315	0.160	0.368	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.149	0.000	0.000	P	$7,300	P	$6,500
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.149	0.265	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 8th

Stackability Rating System:

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Erick Aybar, Matt Kemp

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett, Chris Carter

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jedd Gyorko, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss, Jhonny Peralta

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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