MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 21st
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Ballpark Ratings
Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Mike Foltynewicz | Nick Pivetta | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PHI-120 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.294 | 0.320 | 36.4% | 14.9% | 29.7% | 36.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.342 | 0.406 | 30.7% | 7.8% | 22.2% | 40.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.304 | 0.315 | 36.4% | 8.7% | 26.2% | 43.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.241 | 0.271 | 25.0% | 4.1% | 33.7% | 41.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Foltynewicz | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $18,700 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 6 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 28 | 4.57 | 4.79 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 39.4% | 28.1% | 15.8% | |
2018 | 9 | 3.95 | 2.87 | 27.9% | 11.8% | 40.0% | 36.4% | 18.2% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.13 | 0.00 | 31.8% | 15.9% | 45.5% | 26.1% | 34.8% |
Happy Monday everyone and welcome back to the MLB Grind Down. We have nine games on the schedule and they are all featured in the main slate. Foltynewicz might not be able to sustain his low ERA (2.87) or his high strikeout rate (28%). He’s always had elite fastball velocity, but hasn’t been able to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate is actually lower than it was a year ago, so we could see an average strikeout rate moving forward. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Phillies. While the ballpark isn’t great, the projected lineup for Philadelphia has an average strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is viable in tournaments, but not a core target in this slate.
Nick Pivetta | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $17,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 26 | 4.32 | 6.02 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 43.8% | 35.5% | 15.9% | |
2018 | 9 | 3.22 | 3.72 | 28.2% | 5.9% | 40.7% | 27.9% | 18.0% | |
L14 | 2 | 1.70 | 0.75 | 41.9% | 2.3% | 26.1% | 45.8% | 25.0% |
It turns out Pivetta is good. He was great in the minor leagues and while he struggled a bit in the majors last season, there were some encouraging signs. He is finally starting to put it altogether this season, posting a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Braves, who have become one of the best offenses in baseball. Atlanta’s projected lineup has a .334 xwOBA and a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. While Pivetta has been solid this season, he does struggle against left-handed hitters and the Braves have five of them in their projected lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is viable in tournaments if you are building multiple lineups.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
We have a classic case of two above-average pitchers squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Braves are slight underdogs in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. Nick Pivetta is far from what I would call an exploitable matchup, but he has allowed a .406 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. There are better stacking options available tonight, but Ozzie Albies (.255 ISO against righties) and Freddie Freeman (.461 xwOBA against righties) are both intriguing one-off targets in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ozzie Albies | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.373 | 0.255 | 33.0% | 6.5% | 20.0% | 34.2% | 2B | $4,700 | 2B | $5,200 | 2B | $10,000 |
2 | Ronald Acuna | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.357 | 0.186 | 47.6% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 52.4% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.461 | 0.475 | 0.204 | 49.5% | 16.1% | 13.9% | 28.4% | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $5,200 | 1B | $10,100 |
4 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.367 | 0.179 | 35.1% | 12.6% | 5.2% | 39.6% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,500 |
5 | Kurt Suzuki | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.315 | 0.210 | 40.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 32.9% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,500 |
6 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.263 | 0.140 | 26.5% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 46.0% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,900 | CF | $8,800 |
7 | Johan Camargo | SWITCH | 0.415 | 0.411 | 0.225 | 58.1% | 25.5% | 16.4% | 48.4% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $2,800 | SS | $5,500 |
8 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.204 | 0.117 | 27.0% | 5.4% | 27.0% | 49.3% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,500 |
9 | Mike Foltynewicz | RIGHT | 0.072 | 0.053 | 0.071 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | P | $8,300 | P | $9,600 | P | $18,700 |
Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Ozzie Albies (GPP)
Stackability – ORANGE
Philadelphia
Mike Foltynewicz has an above-average strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters, but he does give up a lot of hard contact. If the Phillies are able to stay patient at the plate, they certainly provide some upside against a fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, and Carlos Santana are all intriguing one-off targets in tournaments. For cash games, we can look to the other eight games for hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.330 | 0.300 | 0.178 | 27.2% | 13.3% | 25.3% | 42.0% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,600 |
2 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.399 | 0.387 | 0.222 | 36.4% | 14.3% | 30.0% | 27.3% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,700 | IF/OF | $8,900 |
3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.369 | 0.439 | 0.191 | 27.7% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 46.8% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $4,800 | IF/OF | $9,500 |
4 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.404 | 0.451 | 0.250 | 38.4% | 15.6% | 14.2% | 35.7% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,000 |
5 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.292 | 0.116 | 31.0% | 12.1% | 28.3% | 51.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,800 |
6 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.292 | 0.132 | 34.2% | 4.9% | 43.2% | 58.5% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,500 |
7 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.284 | 0.196 | 24.7% | 5.5% | 16.5% | 52.9% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
8 | Scott Kingery | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.230 | 0.125 | 28.6% | 5.7% | 25.7% | 37.1% | SS | $2,400 | 3B/SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,800 |
9 | Nick Pivetta | RIGHT | 0.221 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | P | $7,600 | P | $9,100 | P | $17,500 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
San Diego | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Robbie Erlin | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-180 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.277 | 0.275 | 37.9% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 71.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.201 | 0.207 | 20.6% | 3.9% | 30.8% | 52.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.257 | 0.303 | 23.9% | 1.6% | 24.2% | 37.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.330 | 0.328 | 34.0% | 12.7% | 23.5% | 51.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Robbie Erlin | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | $8,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 2.91 | 3.46 | 23.3% | 3.9% | 50.7% | 29.3% | 17.3% | |
L14 | 0 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
Erlin has pitched well out of the bullpen this season, but he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches in any outing in over a month. His season-high is 70 pitches, so it will take a near perfect outing just for him to be eligible for the win. A near perfect outing against the Nationals is a lot to ask for a southpaw, especially one pitching on the road. Even though Erlin is cheap across the industry, he doesn’t offer a high enough floor or ceiling to warrant consideration in any format.
Quick Breakdown: Erlin is at his best coming out of the bullpen, not as a starter.
Gio Gonzalez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $11,900 | Salary: | $23,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 3 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 4.41 | 2.96 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 45.8% | 29.3% | 21.9% | |
2018 | 9 | 3.93 | 2.36 | 25.2% | 10.6% | 52.1% | 30.7% | 17.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.31 | 2.45 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 56.7% | 36.7% | 23.3% |
Gonzalez is a nibbler. He nibbles around the corners of the plate, which leads to long at-bats and a higher pitch count. While his numbers are solid on paper, he doesn’t pitch as deep into games as other aces. In fact, he’s only pitched more than six innings in one of his nine starts this season. With all of that said, it’s hard to think of a better matchup for Gonzalez. The Padres are one of the least patient offenses in baseball and he’s facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. It doesn’t feel great rostering chalk Gio, but this is one of the best spots to use him all season.
Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an elite play in all formats, even at his elevated price point on DraftKings.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres are large underdogs, they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they draw a difficult matchup against Gio Gonzalez, and they have one of the least talented collection of hitters in baseball. No matter how you slice it, San Diego offers little fantasy appeal. The one hitter that has appeal in tournaments is Christian Villanueva. On the season, he owns a .508 xwOBA and a ridiculous .636 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Manuel Margot | RIGHT | 0.214 | 0.234 | 0.139 | 35.7% | 2.7% | 21.6% | 44.4% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $5,500 |
2 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.406 | 0.351 | 0.220 | 38.5% | 15.3% | 18.6% | 53.8% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
3 | Jose Pirela | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.308 | 0.120 | 32.6% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 48.8% | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/OF | $3,000 | IF/OF | $5,900 |
4 | Christian Villanueva | RIGHT | 0.508 | 0.248 | 0.636 | 46.7% | 6.4% | 29.8% | 26.7% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,400 |
5 | Franchy Cordero | LEFT | 0.301 | 0.267 | 0.167 | 42.3% | 2.3% | 38.6% | 45.8% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,400 |
6 | Franmil Reyes | RIGHT | 0.204 | 0.213 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 66.7% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,900 |
7 | Raffy Lopez | LEFT | 0.234 | 0.254 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 25.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,600 | C | $4,900 |
8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.283 | 0.248 | 0.143 | 38.6% | 3.4% | 20.7% | 54.8% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,800 |
9 | Robbie Erlin | LEFT | 0.514 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,400 | P | $8,500 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Christian Villanueva
Stackability – RED
Washington
It’s always hard to gauge a matchup against a pitcher that does most of his work out of the bullpen. It’s a lot easier to post great numbers when you are only asked to get a few outs in each appearance. It’s a different ball game when you are the starter. For that reason, let’s take a look at Robbie Erlin career splits. In his five major league seasons, he has allowed a .321 xwOBA to lefties and a .309 xwOBA to righties. Juan Soto is a 19-year old phenom that was called up on Sunday. If he’s batting in a decent spot in the lineup, this could be a good time to play him before everyone in the DFS industry starts to learn more about him.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.409 | 0.125 | 41.5% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 56.4% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,800 | IF/OF | $9,000 |
2 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.391 | 0.118 | 36.8% | 18.5% | 21.5% | 55.3% | OF | $4,900 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,000 |
3 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.471 | 0.461 | 0.174 | 56.3% | 14.8% | 25.9% | 12.5% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,400 |
4 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.298 | 0.522 | 0.200 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B/3B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,300 |
5 | Juan Soto | LEFT | 0.000 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,900 | RF | $5,400 | ||||||
6 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.236 | 0.160 | 0.267 | 40.7% | 4.2% | 39.6% | 53.8% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,400 |
7 | Pedro Severino | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.364 | 0.048 | 40.0% | 4.2% | 29.2% | 28.6% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,500 |
8 | Gio Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.191 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 100.0% | P | $8,800 | P | $11,900 | P | $23,000 |
9 | Wilmer Difo | SWITCH | 0.253 | 0.291 | 0.091 | 30.8% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 48.0% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B/3B | $3,100 | 2B | $5,800 |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Juan Soto (Cash), Bryce Harper, Mark Reynolds
Stackability – YELLOW
Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Miami | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
Elieser Hernandez | Jason Vargas | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-125 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.332 | 42.1% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 47.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.499 | 0.483 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 8.7% | 25.0% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.241 | 0.331 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 30.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.555 | 0.456 | 44.4% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 35.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Elieser Hernandez | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 14 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 5.10 | 2.25 | 9.1% | 3.0% | 41.4% | 44.8% | 10.3% | |
L14 | 1 | 5.10 | 2.25 | 9.1% | 3.0% | 41.4% | 44.8% | 10.3% |
Hernandez is making his second career major league start. In fact, this is actually his second career start above the Double-A level. At this point, we should take a wait and see approach with the 23-year old righty. He has a mediocre fastball (90-92 MPH) and a swinging strike rate under 8%. He checks into tonight’s game as an underdog against the Mets, who are rolling out the very hittable Jason Vargas.
Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach with Hernandez.
Jason Vargas | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,600 | Salary: | $9,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 16 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 4.86 | 4.16 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 40.3% | 32.7% | 17.9% | |
2018 | 3 | 5.67 | 13.86 | 13.0% | 10.1% | 32.0% | 38.5% | 15.4% | |
L14 | 1 | 6.79 | 9.00 | 5.0% | 10.0% | 31.3% | 31.3% | 18.8% |
Vargas struggled in his 2017 campaign and has been significantly worse this season. In three starts, he owns a 5.67 SIERA, a 13% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate, and a hard contact rate that is higher than his ground ball rate. All of these numbers are red flags. He might be favored and pitching at home against the Marlins, but I see more risk than upside. Miami’s projected lineup actually looks decent tonight, as they have an average xwOBA of .360 against southpaws this season.
Quick Breakdown: Vargas needs to flash some form before he warrants consideration.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
The Marlins aren’t an offense that we are chomping at the bit to target, but we have to like their matchup against Jason Vargas. In addition to a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate, Vargas has allowed a .483 xwOBA to lefties and a .456 xwOBA to righties this season. Miami may not have the home run upside that we are looking for in a stack, but they are a great offense to target when filling out your roster and you need a cheap hitter or two.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Martin Prado | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.296 | 0.000 | 35.3% | 10.5% | 0.0% | 47.1% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $5,500 |
2 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.365 | 0.211 | 35.7% | 9.5% | 23.8% | 35.7% | C | $3,500 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,700 |
3 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.280 | 0.027 | 43.3% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 46.7% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,300 |
4 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.480 | 0.418 | 0.200 | 62.2% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 48.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B/OF | $3,400 | 3B | $6,500 |
5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.498 | 0.022 | 23.5% | 21.1% | 19.3% | 47.1% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,500 |
6 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.299 | 0.116 | 33.3% | 6.5% | 15.2% | 37.1% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,500 |
7 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.349 | 0.184 | 30.6% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 25.0% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,900 | 2B | $5,900 |
8 | Lewis Brinson | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.263 | 0.130 | 21.6% | 4.2% | 18.8% | 55.6% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,400 |
9 | Elieser Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.065 | P | $5,900 | P | $4,700 | P | $9,100 |
Elite Plays – Brian Anderson, J.T. Realmuto (DK)
Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (FD), Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Justin Bour
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Mets
At this point, we don’t really know what to expect from Elieser Hernandez at the major league level. He didn’t look great in his first major league start and when healthy, this Mets’ offense fares very well against right-handed pitching. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, and Adrian Gonzalez all bat from the left side and all own a .335+ xwOBA against righties this season. The best part is that the Mets will fly under the radar in a slate where most of the ownership will concentrate around the Yankees, Twins, and Cardinals.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.435 | 0.309 | 0.232 | 35.0% | 16.4% | 21.9% | 25.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,500 |
2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.396 | 0.371 | 0.246 | 42.4% | 6.5% | 17.9% | 35.2% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
3 | Wilmer Flores | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.322 | 0.264 | 40.0% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 37.8% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B/3B | $2,800 | 3B | $5,900 |
4 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.327 | 0.155 | 28.0% | 11.8% | 19.1% | 32.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,400 |
5 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.380 | 0.138 | 26.6% | 14.6% | 22.3% | 42.2% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,500 |
6 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.407 | 0.398 | 0.175 | 42.0% | 10.1% | 15.6% | 36.3% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,700 |
7 | Devin Mesoraco | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.386 | 0.289 | 30.3% | 7.8% | 23.5% | 33.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
8 | Jason Vargas | LEFT | 0.079 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,600 | P | $9,300 |
9 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.353 | 0.080 | 28.2% | 2.8% | 23.4% | 51.3% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,900 |
Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce
Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Adrian Gonzalez
Stackability – YELLOW
Arizona at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET
Arizona | Milwaukee | ||||||||||||||
Zack Greinke | Chase Anderson | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
ARI-103 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.319 | 0.338 | 43.1% | 4.3% | 24.5% | 43.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.319 | 30.3% | 8.6% | 18.3% | 34.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.260 | 0.300 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 28.2% | 45.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.375 | 0.370 | 32.4% | 8.8% | 14.3% | 38.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Zack Greinke | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $12,100 | Salary: | $23,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 32 | 3.48 | 3.20 | 26.8% | 5.6% | 46.8% | 35.1% | 19.2% | |
2018 | 9 | 3.06 | 3.46 | 26.6% | 3.2% | 44.4% | 43.1% | 16.6% | |
L14 | 2 | 3.29 | 1.38 | 22.9% | 2.1% | 47.2% | 47.2% | 16.7% |
Greinke has given up a lot of hard contact, but has otherwise been terrific this season. In nine starts, he has a 3.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 3%. I will generally target elite pitchers in any matchup and in any ballpark, but I’m not sure Greinke deserves to be in the same category as Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and Corey Kluber (to name a few). While this ballpark is always a little scary for pitchers, the bottom of the Brewers’ lineup is awfully exploitable. As a whole, Milwaukee’s projected lineup has a .308 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: While Greinke feels a bit overpriced in this ballpark, but he’s viable in all formats.
Chase Anderson | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $13,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 13 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 25 | 4.14 | 2.74 | 23.4% | 7.2% | 39.2% | 31.7% | 19.9% | |
2018 | 8 | 5.05 | 3.97 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 36.4% | 31.3% | 23.9% | |
Anderson suffered a bout of food poisoning that was so bad that the Brewers placed him on the 10-day DL. He’ll be back on the mound tonight, as he squares off against the Diamondbacks. While this is an exploitable matchup, I have two concerns — the potential rust and the ballpark. If the food poisoning was bad enough to sideline Anderson for nearly two weeks, it had to have taken a toll on him physically. I’ll take a wait and see approach with Anderson for now.
Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to target tonight. Chase Anderson hasn’t been great this season and he’s coming off of a pretty serious bout of food poisoning. The fact that they are playing in Miller Park is icing on the cake. Throughout his career, Anderson has been a reverse-splits pitcher. In his eight starts this season, he has allowed a .370 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Paul Goldschmidt is one of my favorite contrarian plays of the slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | David Peralta | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.306 | 0.236 | 48.2% | 9.8% | 20.5% | 47.7% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,900 |
2 | Chris Owings | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.315 | 0.097 | 28.9% | 7.7% | 25.6% | 49.0% | OF | $2,100 | 2B/OF | $2,900 | IF/OF | $5,500 |
3 | Jake Lamb | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.125 | 0.095 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 38.1% | 46.2% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,400 |
4 | Paul Goldschmidt | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.306 | 0.092 | 38.4% | 13.6% | 32.9% | 46.6% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,100 |
5 | Daniel Descalso | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.348 | 0.221 | 42.5% | 15.4% | 21.4% | 27.4% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $5,700 |
6 | Ketel Marte | SWITCH | 0.265 | 0.304 | 0.071 | 26.2% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 57.8% | 2B | $2,100 | 2B | $2,800 | SS | $5,500 |
7 | Alex Avila | LEFT | 0.254 | 0.203 | 0.094 | 42.3% | 12.3% | 52.1% | 34.6% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,100 |
8 | Jarrod Dyson | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.319 | 0.115 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 38.1% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,900 |
9 | Zack Greinke | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.247 | 0.154 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 23.5% | 33.3% | P | $9,200 | P | $12,100 | P | $23,100 |
Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (Cash), David Peralta, Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso
Stackability – YELLOW
Milwaukee
The Brewers have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, he has held right-handed hitters to a .300 xwOBA this season. That statistic alone takes out most of the Brewers’ lineup. The two batters that deserve consideration in large-field tournaments are Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw. They both bat from the left side of the plate and both have an xwOBA of at least .400 against righties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.347 | 0.108 | 37.1% | 15.3% | 22.2% | 60.7% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,600 |
2 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.322 | 0.202 | 45.2% | 11.2% | 19.6% | 46.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,000 |
3 | Jesus Aguilar | RIGHT | 0.457 | 0.434 | 0.282 | 41.3% | 7.8% | 21.1% | 23.8% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,600 |
4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.433 | 0.398 | 0.328 | 41.7% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 33.3% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,000 |
5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.328 | 0.109 | 40.0% | 10.3% | 28.4% | 54.3% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,400 |
6 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.262 | 0.333 | 0.089 | 31.9% | 4.6% | 30.6% | 64.1% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
7 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.326 | 0.152 | 33.3% | 5.8% | 16.3% | 45.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,900 |
8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.244 | 0.244 | 0.099 | 28.6% | 5.6% | 22.4% | 59.7% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,400 |
9 | Chase Anderson | RIGHT | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 55.6% | 100.0% | P | $6,100 | P | $6,300 | P | $13,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Yankees at Texas – 8:05 PM ET
NY Yankees | Texas | ||||||||||||||
Masahiro Tanaka | Bartolo Colon | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-185 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.295 | 25.4% | 3.7% | 18.5% | 46.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.250 | 0.306 | 40.0% | 3.8% | 15.0% | 50.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.335 | 37.2% | 5.5% | 25.0% | 42.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.276 | 0.350 | 44.0% | 0.9% | 17.7% | 49.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Masahiro Tanaka | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $17,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 30 | 3.52 | 4.74 | 25.8% | 5.5% | 49.2% | 31.4% | 19.5% | |
2018 | 9 | 3.68 | 4.73 | 22.5% | 4.8% | 44.2% | 32.2% | 18.1% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.80 | 6.10 | 11.6% | 4.7% | 47.2% | 30.6% | 8.3% |
Tanaka is the ultimate boom or bust pitching option of tonight’s slate. He has been in terrible form in his last two starts and now has to face the Rangers in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The good news is that his price has come down to a very playable level across the industry. We know Tanaka has an above-average strikeout rate and the projected lineup for the Rangers has a .316 xwOBA with a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you are making multiple lineups tonight like myself, my plan of action is as follows — play Tanaka on one lineup and take a few Rangers’ hitters in another lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Tanaka has a wide range of potential outcomes, but his strikeout upside puts him on my radar in tournaments.
Bartolo Colon | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $12,100 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 18 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 18 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 28 | 5.08 | 6.48 | 13.7% | 5.4% | 41.8% | 35.8% | 17.8% | |
2018 | 7 | 3.85 | 2.82 | 16.6% | 2.1% | 50.0% | 42.3% | 10.9% | |
L14 | 2 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 14.3% | 2.0% | 51.2% | 31.7% | 9.8% |
If I’m as good at DFS at the age of 44 as Colon is at baseball, I will be happy and will enjoy the ride for the next 13 years. Colon has an ERA under three despite the fact that he throws primarily fastballs that range from 86-91 MPH. Despite the good form, he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There is more risk than upside with Colon, as the Yankees’ projected lineup has a .363 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Colon in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Bartolo Colon has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. This bodes awfully well for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez, who all bat from the right side and all mash right-handed pitching. A full Yankees’ stack is certainly viable in this ballpark if you want to complete it with Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and/or Aaron Hicks. The fact that the Yankees are playing on the road is a bonus, as they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.305 | 0.339 | 0.088 | 31.2% | 15.3% | 18.1% | 49.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.419 | 0.419 | 0.283 | 45.7% | 15.3% | 27.8% | 43.2% | OF | $5,000 | OF | $5,500 | RF | $10,700 |
3 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.370 | 0.201 | 0.312 | 46.3% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 27.7% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.468 | 0.151 | 35.9% | 10.4% | 33.3% | 56.4% | OF | $5,100 | OF | $5,100 | RF | $9,700 |
5 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.486 | 0.308 | 43.0% | 11.4% | 23.6% | 36.7% | C | $4,300 | C | $4,800 | C | $9,300 |
6 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.367 | 0.420 | 0.184 | 41.7% | 16.0% | 20.2% | 44.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,700 |
7 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.433 | 0.045 | 39.7% | 12.5% | 21.2% | 44.1% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,400 |
8 | Miguel Andujar | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.364 | 0.215 | 41.9% | 0.9% | 20.2% | 48.8% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,800 |
9 | Gleyber Torres | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.430 | 0.207 | 34.1% | 7.6% | 24.2% | 30.2% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,300 |
Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez (FD), Aaron Hicks
Stackability – GREEN
Texas
The Rangers are a boom or bust offense that is facing a volatile pitcher. There are times when Masahiro Tanaka looks dominant and other times when he gives up a lot of home runs. In 39 starts over the last two seasons combined, Tanaka has allowed 44 home runs — 18 to lefties and 26 to righties. I’d rather try to capture their upside through a few one-off targets than a full stack. Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, and Joey Gallo are all excellent tournament plays.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | xwOBA | L15 | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Delino DeShields | RIGHT | 0.260 | 0.261 | 0.081 | 27.4% | 8.2% | 26.8% | 41.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,400 |
2 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.320 | 0.177 | 46.6% | 12.6% | 18.5% | 52.4% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,400 |
3 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.309 | 0.125 | 30.7% | 4.0% | 18.0% | 48.6% | 3B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,200 | 2B | $6,300 |
4 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.395 | 0.359 | 0.220 | 38.6% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 54.5% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
5 | Jurickson Profar | SWITCH | 0.265 | 0.264 | 0.100 | 22.2% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 46.7% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,700 |
6 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.338 | 0.250 | 44.8% | 9.0% | 31.0% | 33.7% | OF | $3,300 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | 1B | $8,200 |
7 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.228 | 0.038 | 40.0% | 8.6% | 29.3% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
8 | Robinson Chirinos | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.218 | 0.221 | 50.0% | 7.4% | 41.7% | 24.5% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,900 |
9 | Ronald Guzman | LEFT | 0.244 | 0.258 | 0.134 | 26.9% | 6.7% | 33.3% | 40.4% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $5,500 |
Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.