MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 21st

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
Article Image Mike Foltynewicz Article Image Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.320 36.4% 14.9% 29.7% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.406 30.7% 7.8% 22.2% 40.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.315 36.4% 8.7% 26.2% 43.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 0.271 25.0% 4.1% 33.7% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,700
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 4 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8%
2018 9 3.95 2.87 27.9% 11.8% 40.0% 36.4% 18.2%
L14 2 4.13 0.00 31.8% 15.9% 45.5% 26.1% 34.8%

Happy Monday everyone and welcome back to the MLB Grind Down. We have nine games on the schedule and they are all featured in the main slate. Foltynewicz might not be able to sustain his low ERA (2.87) or his high strikeout rate (28%). He’s always had elite fastball velocity, but hasn’t been able to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. His swinging strike rate is actually lower than it was a year ago, so we could see an average strikeout rate moving forward. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Phillies. While the ballpark isn’t great, the projected lineup for Philadelphia has an average strikeout rate of 27% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is viable in tournaments, but not a core target in this slate.

Nick Pivetta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,500
Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 6 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9%
2018 9 3.22 3.72 28.2% 5.9% 40.7% 27.9% 18.0%
L14 2 1.70 0.75 41.9% 2.3% 26.1% 45.8% 25.0%

It turns out Pivetta is good. He was great in the minor leagues and while he struggled a bit in the majors last season, there were some encouraging signs. He is finally starting to put it altogether this season, posting a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Braves, who have become one of the best offenses in baseball. Atlanta’s projected lineup has a .334 xwOBA and a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. While Pivetta has been solid this season, he does struggle against left-handed hitters and the Braves have five of them in their projected lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is viable in tournaments if you are building multiple lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

We have a classic case of two above-average pitchers squaring off in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Braves are slight underdogs in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. Nick Pivetta is far from what I would call an exploitable matchup, but he has allowed a .406 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. There are better stacking options available tonight, but Ozzie Albies (.255 ISO against righties) and Freddie Freeman (.461 xwOBA against righties) are both intriguing one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.334 0.373 0.255 33.0% 6.5% 20.0% 34.2% 2B $4,700 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.376 0.357 0.186 47.6% 9.1% 27.3% 52.4% OF $4,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.461 0.475 0.204 49.5% 16.1% 13.9% 28.4% 1B $4,900 1B $5,200 1B $10,100
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.419 0.367 0.179 35.1% 12.6% 5.2% 39.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 RF $8,500
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.342 0.315 0.210 40.8% 6.5% 7.5% 32.9% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,500
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.284 0.263 0.140 26.5% 7.4% 14.1% 46.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 CF $8,800
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.415 0.411 0.225 58.1% 25.5% 16.4% 48.4% SS $2,700 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,500
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.306 0.204 0.117 27.0% 5.4% 27.0% 49.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.072 0.053 0.071 40.0% 0.0% 66.7% 66.7% P $8,300 P $9,600 P $18,700

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash), Ozzie Albies (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Mike Foltynewicz has an above-average strikeout rate against both left and right-handed hitters, but he does give up a lot of hard contact. If the Phillies are able to stay patient at the plate, they certainly provide some upside against a fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, and Carlos Santana are all intriguing one-off targets in tournaments. For cash games, we can look to the other eight games for hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.300 0.178 27.2% 13.3% 25.3% 42.0% 2B $4,200 2B $4,400 2B $8,600
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.399 0.387 0.222 36.4% 14.3% 30.0% 27.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 IF/OF $8,900
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.369 0.439 0.191 27.7% 10.0% 16.9% 46.8% OF $4,400 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,500
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.404 0.451 0.250 38.4% 15.6% 14.2% 35.7% 1B $4,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,000
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.116 31.0% 12.1% 28.3% 51.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
6 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.281 0.292 0.132 34.2% 4.9% 43.2% 58.5% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,500
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.337 0.284 0.196 24.7% 5.5% 16.5% 52.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.305 0.230 0.125 28.6% 5.7% 25.7% 37.1% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,800
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.221 0.000 0.100 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% P $7,600 P $9,100 P $17,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Washington
Article Image Robbie Erlin Article Image Gio Gonzalez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-180 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.275 37.9% 7.3% 22.0% 71.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.201 0.207 20.6% 3.9% 30.8% 52.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.303 23.9% 1.6% 24.2% 37.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.328 34.0% 12.7% 23.5% 51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Erlin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 17 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 2.91 3.46 23.3% 3.9% 50.7% 29.3% 17.3%
L14 0 2.81 0.00 21.4% 0.0% 36.4% 27.3% 18.2%

Erlin has pitched well out of the bullpen this season, but he hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches in any outing in over a month. His season-high is 70 pitches, so it will take a near perfect outing just for him to be eligible for the win. A near perfect outing against the Nationals is a lot to ask for a southpaw, especially one pitching on the road. Even though Erlin is cheap across the industry, he doesn’t offer a high enough floor or ceiling to warrant consideration in any format.

Quick Breakdown: Erlin is at his best coming out of the bullpen, not as a starter.

Gio Gonzalez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $11,900 Salary: $23,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.9%
2018 9 3.93 2.36 25.2% 10.6% 52.1% 30.7% 17.1%
L14 2 4.31 2.45 26.0% 14.0% 56.7% 36.7% 23.3%

Gonzalez is a nibbler. He nibbles around the corners of the plate, which leads to long at-bats and a higher pitch count. While his numbers are solid on paper, he doesn’t pitch as deep into games as other aces. In fact, he’s only pitched more than six innings in one of his nine starts this season. With all of that said, it’s hard to think of a better matchup for Gonzalez. The Padres are one of the least patient offenses in baseball and he’s facing them at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park. It doesn’t feel great rostering chalk Gio, but this is one of the best spots to use him all season.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is an elite play in all formats, even at his elevated price point on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are large underdogs, they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they draw a difficult matchup against Gio Gonzalez, and they have one of the least talented collection of hitters in baseball. No matter how you slice it, San Diego offers little fantasy appeal. The one hitter that has appeal in tournaments is Christian Villanueva. On the season, he owns a .508 xwOBA and a ridiculous .636 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.214 0.234 0.139 35.7% 2.7% 21.6% 44.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.406 0.351 0.220 38.5% 15.3% 18.6% 53.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.350 0.308 0.120 32.6% 10.7% 12.5% 48.8% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,900
4 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.508 0.248 0.636 46.7% 6.4% 29.8% 26.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
5 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.301 0.267 0.167 42.3% 2.3% 38.6% 45.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
6 Franmil Reyes RIGHT 0.204 0.213 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,900
7 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.234 0.254 0.000 25.0% 14.3% 28.6% 25.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,900
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.283 0.248 0.143 38.6% 3.4% 20.7% 54.8% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $4,800
9 Robbie Erlin LEFT 0.514 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $4,400 P $8,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Villanueva

Stackability – RED

Washington

It’s always hard to gauge a matchup against a pitcher that does most of his work out of the bullpen. It’s a lot easier to post great numbers when you are only asked to get a few outs in each appearance. It’s a different ball game when you are the starter. For that reason, let’s take a look at Robbie Erlin career splits. In his five major league seasons, he has allowed a .321 xwOBA to lefties and a .309 xwOBA to righties. Juan Soto is a 19-year old phenom that was called up on Sunday. If he’s batting in a decent spot in the lineup, this could be a good time to play him before everyone in the DFS industry starts to learn more about him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.373 0.409 0.125 41.5% 15.8% 12.3% 56.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,800 IF/OF $9,000
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.378 0.391 0.118 36.8% 18.5% 21.5% 55.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $10,000
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.471 0.461 0.174 56.3% 14.8% 25.9% 12.5% 3B $3,800 3B $3,800 3B $7,400
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.298 0.522 0.200 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 1B $3,700 1B/3B $3,400 1B $6,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.000 OF $2,500 OF $2,900 RF $5,400
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.236 0.160 0.267 40.7% 4.2% 39.6% 53.8% OF $2,400 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
7 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.347 0.364 0.048 40.0% 4.2% 29.2% 28.6% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,500
8 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.191 0.000 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 57.1% 100.0% P $8,800 P $11,900 P $23,000
9 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.253 0.291 0.091 30.8% 8.3% 19.4% 48.0% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Juan Soto (Cash), Bryce Harper, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW


Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Miami NY Mets
Article Image Elieser Hernandez Article Image Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.332 42.1% 4.6% 9.1% 47.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.499 0.483 25.0% 17.4% 8.7% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 0.331 50.0% 0.0% 9.1% 30.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.555 0.456 44.4% 6.5% 15.2% 35.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Elieser Hernandez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 5.10 2.25 9.1% 3.0% 41.4% 44.8% 10.3%
L14 1 5.10 2.25 9.1% 3.0% 41.4% 44.8% 10.3%

Hernandez is making his second career major league start. In fact, this is actually his second career start above the Double-A level. At this point, we should take a wait and see approach with the 23-year old righty. He has a mediocre fastball (90-92 MPH) and a swinging strike rate under 8%. He checks into tonight’s game as an underdog against the Mets, who are rolling out the very hittable Jason Vargas.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach with Hernandez.

Jason Vargas
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.86 4.16 17.7% 7.7% 40.3% 32.7% 17.9%
2018 3 5.67 13.86 13.0% 10.1% 32.0% 38.5% 15.4%
L14 1 6.79 9.00 5.0% 10.0% 31.3% 31.3% 18.8%

Vargas struggled in his 2017 campaign and has been significantly worse this season. In three starts, he owns a 5.67 SIERA, a 13% strikeout rate, a 10% walk rate, and a hard contact rate that is higher than his ground ball rate. All of these numbers are red flags. He might be favored and pitching at home against the Marlins, but I see more risk than upside. Miami’s projected lineup actually looks decent tonight, as they have an average xwOBA of .360 against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas needs to flash some form before he warrants consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins aren’t an offense that we are chomping at the bit to target, but we have to like their matchup against Jason Vargas. In addition to a low strikeout rate and a low ground ball rate, Vargas has allowed a .483 xwOBA to lefties and a .456 xwOBA to righties this season. Miami may not have the home run upside that we are looking for in a stack, but they are a great offense to target when filling out your roster and you need a cheap hitter or two.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.327 0.296 0.000 35.3% 10.5% 0.0% 47.1% 3B $2,100 3B $2,700 3B $5,500
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.325 0.365 0.211 35.7% 9.5% 23.8% 35.7% C $3,500 C $4,000 C $7,700
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.389 0.280 0.027 43.3% 13.6% 18.2% 46.7% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,300
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.480 0.418 0.200 62.2% 13.5% 15.4% 48.6% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,400 3B $6,500
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.327 0.498 0.022 23.5% 21.1% 19.3% 47.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,500
6 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.326 0.299 0.116 33.3% 6.5% 15.2% 37.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,500
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.383 0.349 0.184 30.6% 9.1% 6.8% 25.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 2B $5,900
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.321 0.263 0.130 21.6% 4.2% 18.8% 55.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
9 Elieser Hernandez RIGHT 0.065 P $5,900 P $4,700 P $9,100

Elite Plays – Brian Anderson, J.T. Realmuto (DK)

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto (FD), Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

At this point, we don’t really know what to expect from Elieser Hernandez at the major league level. He didn’t look great in his first major league start and when healthy, this Mets’ offense fares very well against right-handed pitching. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, and Adrian Gonzalez all bat from the left side and all own a .335+ xwOBA against righties this season. The best part is that the Mets will fly under the radar in a slate where most of the ownership will concentrate around the Yankees, Twins, and Cardinals.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.435 0.309 0.232 35.0% 16.4% 21.9% 25.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 LF $6,500
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.396 0.371 0.246 42.4% 6.5% 17.9% 35.2% 2B $3,700 2B $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.346 0.322 0.264 40.0% 10.0% 13.3% 37.8% 1B $2,300 1B/3B $2,800 3B $5,900
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.327 0.155 28.0% 11.8% 19.1% 32.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,400
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.336 0.380 0.138 26.6% 14.6% 22.3% 42.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,500
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.407 0.398 0.175 42.0% 10.1% 15.6% 36.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.365 0.386 0.289 30.3% 7.8% 23.5% 33.3% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.079 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $4,600 P $9,300
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.282 0.353 0.080 28.2% 2.8% 23.4% 51.3% SS $2,100 SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW


Arizona at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

Arizona Milwaukee
Article Image Zack Greinke Article Image Chase Anderson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-103 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.338 43.1% 4.3% 24.5% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.319 30.3% 8.6% 18.3% 34.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.260 0.300 43.0% 2.4% 28.2% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.370 32.4% 8.8% 14.3% 38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.48 3.20 26.8% 5.6% 46.8% 35.1% 19.2%
2018 9 3.06 3.46 26.6% 3.2% 44.4% 43.1% 16.6%
L14 2 3.29 1.38 22.9% 2.1% 47.2% 47.2% 16.7%

Greinke has given up a lot of hard contact, but has otherwise been terrific this season. In nine starts, he has a 3.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 3%. I will generally target elite pitchers in any matchup and in any ballpark, but I’m not sure Greinke deserves to be in the same category as Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, and Corey Kluber (to name a few). While this ballpark is always a little scary for pitchers, the bottom of the Brewers’ lineup is awfully exploitable. As a whole, Milwaukee’s projected lineup has a .308 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While Greinke feels a bit overpriced in this ballpark, but he’s viable in all formats.

Chase Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 13 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.14 2.74 23.4% 7.2% 39.2% 31.7% 19.9%
2018 8 5.05 3.97 16.3% 8.7% 36.4% 31.3% 23.9%

Anderson suffered a bout of food poisoning that was so bad that the Brewers placed him on the 10-day DL. He’ll be back on the mound tonight, as he squares off against the Diamondbacks. While this is an exploitable matchup, I have two concerns — the potential rust and the ballpark. If the food poisoning was bad enough to sideline Anderson for nearly two weeks, it had to have taken a toll on him physically. I’ll take a wait and see approach with Anderson for now.

Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to target tonight. Chase Anderson hasn’t been great this season and he’s coming off of a pretty serious bout of food poisoning. The fact that they are playing in Miller Park is icing on the cake. Throughout his career, Anderson has been a reverse-splits pitcher. In his eight starts this season, he has allowed a .370 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Paul Goldschmidt is one of my favorite contrarian plays of the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.374 0.306 0.236 48.2% 9.8% 20.5% 47.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,900
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.280 0.315 0.097 28.9% 7.7% 25.6% 49.0% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,500
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.286 0.125 0.095 38.5% 0.0% 38.1% 46.2% 3B $3,000 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.313 0.306 0.092 38.4% 13.6% 32.9% 46.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.377 0.348 0.221 42.5% 15.4% 21.4% 27.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,100 3B $5,700
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.265 0.304 0.071 26.2% 6.5% 14.0% 57.8% 2B $2,100 2B $2,800 SS $5,500
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.254 0.203 0.094 42.3% 12.3% 52.1% 34.6% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.268 0.319 0.115 23.5% 8.2% 11.8% 38.1% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 CF $5,900
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.316 0.247 0.154 27.3% 11.8% 23.5% 33.3% P $9,200 P $12,100 P $23,100

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (Cash), David Peralta, Chris Owings, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate, he has held right-handed hitters to a .300 xwOBA this season. That statistic alone takes out most of the Brewers’ lineup. The two batters that deserve consideration in large-field tournaments are Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw. They both bat from the left side of the plate and both have an xwOBA of at least .400 against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.331 0.347 0.108 37.1% 15.3% 22.2% 60.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 CF $8,600
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.402 0.322 0.202 45.2% 11.2% 19.6% 46.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.457 0.434 0.282 41.3% 7.8% 21.1% 23.8% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.433 0.398 0.328 41.7% 10.9% 19.0% 33.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,000
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.321 0.328 0.109 40.0% 10.3% 28.4% 54.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,400
6 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.262 0.333 0.089 31.9% 4.6% 30.6% 64.1% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.307 0.326 0.152 33.3% 5.8% 16.3% 45.5% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,900
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.244 0.244 0.099 28.6% 5.6% 22.4% 59.7% SS $2,100 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.019 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 55.6% 100.0% P $6,100 P $6,300 P $13,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE


NY Yankees at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Texas
Article Image Masahiro Tanaka Article Image Bartolo Colon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-185 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.295 25.4% 3.7% 18.5% 46.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.250 0.306 40.0% 3.8% 15.0% 50.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.335 37.2% 5.5% 25.0% 42.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.350 44.0% 0.9% 17.7% 49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 7 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5%
2018 9 3.68 4.73 22.5% 4.8% 44.2% 32.2% 18.1%
L14 2 4.80 6.10 11.6% 4.7% 47.2% 30.6% 8.3%

Tanaka is the ultimate boom or bust pitching option of tonight’s slate. He has been in terrible form in his last two starts and now has to face the Rangers in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. The good news is that his price has come down to a very playable level across the industry. We know Tanaka has an above-average strikeout rate and the projected lineup for the Rangers has a .316 xwOBA with a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you are making multiple lineups tonight like myself, my plan of action is as follows — play Tanaka on one lineup and take a few Rangers’ hitters in another lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka has a wide range of potential outcomes, but his strikeout upside puts him on my radar in tournaments.

Bartolo Colon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.08 6.48 13.7% 5.4% 41.8% 35.8% 17.8%
2018 7 3.85 2.82 16.6% 2.1% 50.0% 42.3% 10.9%
L14 2 4.12 1.42 14.3% 2.0% 51.2% 31.7% 9.8%

If I’m as good at DFS at the age of 44 as Colon is at baseball, I will be happy and will enjoy the ride for the next 13 years. Colon has an ERA under three despite the fact that he throws primarily fastballs that range from 86-91 MPH. Despite the good form, he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball in a hitter-friendly ballpark. There is more risk than upside with Colon, as the Yankees’ projected lineup has a .363 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Colon in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Bartolo Colon has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .350 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. This bodes awfully well for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez, who all bat from the right side and all mash right-handed pitching. A full Yankees’ stack is certainly viable in this ballpark if you want to complete it with Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, and/or Aaron Hicks. The fact that the Yankees are playing on the road is a bonus, as they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.305 0.339 0.088 31.2% 15.3% 18.1% 49.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.419 0.283 45.7% 15.3% 27.8% 43.2% OF $5,000 OF $5,500 RF $10,700
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.370 0.201 0.312 46.3% 12.3% 13.8% 27.7% SS $4,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.310 0.468 0.151 35.9% 10.4% 33.3% 56.4% OF $5,100 OF $5,100 RF $9,700
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.408 0.486 0.308 43.0% 11.4% 23.6% 36.7% C $4,300 C $4,800 C $9,300
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.367 0.420 0.184 41.7% 16.0% 20.2% 44.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.336 0.433 0.045 39.7% 12.5% 21.2% 44.1% 1B $2,200 1B $3,400 2B $6,400
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.383 0.364 0.215 41.9% 0.9% 20.2% 48.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,800
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.371 0.430 0.207 34.1% 7.6% 24.2% 30.2% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,300

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez (FD), Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers are a boom or bust offense that is facing a volatile pitcher. There are times when Masahiro Tanaka looks dominant and other times when he gives up a lot of home runs. In 39 starts over the last two seasons combined, Tanaka has allowed 44 home runs — 18 to lefties and 26 to righties. I’d rather try to capture their upside through a few one-off targets than a full stack. Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, and Joey Gallo are all excellent tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.260 0.261 0.081 27.4% 8.2% 26.8% 41.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.397 0.320 0.177 46.6% 12.6% 18.5% 52.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
3 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.292 0.309 0.125 30.7% 4.0% 18.0% 48.6% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,200 2B $6,300
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.395 0.359 0.220 38.6% 6.8% 16.5% 54.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.265 0.264 0.100 22.2% 7.4% 18.0% 46.7% SS $3,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,700
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.390 0.338 0.250 44.8% 9.0% 31.0% 33.7% OF $3,300 1B/OF $4,100 1B $8,200
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.316 0.228 0.038 40.0% 8.6% 29.3% 50.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.289 0.218 0.221 50.0% 7.4% 41.7% 24.5% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,900
9 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.244 0.258 0.134 26.9% 6.7% 33.3% 40.4% 1B $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $5,500

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious