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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 27th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-05-28 01:28:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Oakland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Oakland NY Yankees
Article Image Jharel Cotton Article Image CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-155 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.267 24.7% 9.6% 20.8% 36.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.284 18.9% 9.2% 22.5% 51.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.287 35.9% 5.1% 20.3% 38.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.302 28.4% 8.4% 18.3% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jharel Cotton
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 7 4.54 5.68 20.5% 9.4% 37.7% 33.3% 19.7%

Good Morning Grinders! We have a 15-game slate on the menu today. For the most part, the slate is divided into 10 games early and five late. The lone exception is FanDuel decided to start their slate at 2:10. If you want to play the OAK/NYY or TEX/TOR games you’ll either have to play all day or the “very early” two-game set. We’ll go ahead and start with the aforementioned Yankees and Athletics game. Jharel Cotton was sent down to AAA earlier this month after making five starts in the majors. He had shown pretty average stuff with a 20.9% K rate. Hard contact was still holding out at 37% and walks increased to 9.4%. In two AAA starts, the numbers looked a little better at 28.3% K and 2.2% BB allowed. That’s way too small of a sample to know if Cotton has corrected his issues or not, especially against a Yankees lineup that is second in wOBA against RH pitching this season at .350.

Quick Breakdown: – In a different matchup, Cotton might draw SP2 consideration here but there are plenty of better options today. He’s an easy avoid against this Yankees offense.

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 9 4.72 4.62 16.7% 9.0% 47.1% 33.3% 22.2%

C.C. Sabathia honestly may not be very good anymore. He’s sporting a 4.62 ERA which nearly matches his 4.72 ERA. He’s now a below-average K pitcher at 16.7%. On the positive side, the Athletics are fifth in K% to LH pitching at 23%. With a ground ball rate that hovers around 50% you possibly could take a look here on multi-pitcher sites. Sabathia has scored over 20 DraftKings points in each of his last two starts. We’ll get to several options I like better though as we move through the slate.

Quick Breakdown: – With a slight strikeout upgrade, Sabathia deserves some consideration in tournaments. The issue is that he’s mainly struggled against RH batters (.317 wOBA, 18.7 K%) and Oakland could feature as many as seven in their lineup.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Targeting C.C. Sabathia probably isn’t something I would do on a full-sized slate. If you choose to go that route, RH batters are preferred. Sabathia owns a .317 wOBA but also a very respectable 49.% ground ball rate. Jed Lowrie is a little too cheap on FD for how well he’s been hitting hitting lately. He doesn’t have a ton of power with a .032 ISO but his xwOBA of .325 has a decent gap from his real wOBA of .287. Beyond Lowrie (on FD), I would take a look at Khris Davis and Ryon Healy who both hit LH pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.279 0.267 0.123 25.0% 7.1% 23.5% 40.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.335 0.313 0.132 26.3% 13.1% 24.6% 63.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.287 0.325 0.032 28.2% 6.7% 16.4% 41.7% 2B $2,300 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.341 0.395 0.249 41.3% 9.4% 27.1% 40.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.409 0.360 0.261 33.7% 3.5% 19.1% 38.2% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.320 0.333 0.153 39.1% 9.0% 24.8% 47.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.230 0.262 0.096 23.2% 4.4% 20.4% 41.5% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.285 0.278 0.302 26.7% 2.3% 29.5% 26.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.348 0.299 0.226 36.7% 13.4% 36.3% 35.9% 2B $2,400 SS $2,200 3B $4,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie (FD) and Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

Jharel Cotton is somewhat of an unknown coming back from the minors. In five starts this season he was getting tagged for a .345 wOBA to LH and .365 to RH batters. He was also allowing 42% hard contact to RH hitters. The Yankees have all kinds of power from both sides of the plate. Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge should give Cotton plenty of trouble. Judge has a 48.1% hard contact rate against RH pitching. You could possibly even get away with a Yankees mini-stack in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.320 0.138 28.7% 12.8% 17.0% 48.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.336 0.306 0.156 23.5% 12.5% 17.9% 48.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.195 35.6% 9.2% 20.7% 51.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.306 0.169 30.8% 3.5% 19.3% 49.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.398 0.383 0.306 48.7% 10.4% 34.1% 42.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.310 0.267 0.174 25.1% 3.4% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.318 0.159 31.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
8 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.338 0.349 0.253 39.7% 11.6% 34.3% 30.0% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.268 0.270 0.104 20.6% 4.4% 20.0% 45.5% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Texas at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Texas Toronto
Article Image Yu Darvish Article Image Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-110 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.283 33.3% 10.0% 30.0% 44.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.265 27.0% 8.3% 24.1% 36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.276 28.0% 7.5% 29.6% 35.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.319 33.8% 8.2% 23.9% 31.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,400 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 3.08 3.41 31.7% 7.5% 40.4% 30.0% 22.8%
2017 10 3.93 2.83 26.6% 10.6% 38.1% 31.1% 16.2%

Yu Darvish is not the top pitching option today but he’s in the top tier. On FD, they already made this decision for you. You can’t play Darvish on their largest early-only slate. Everywhere else, we’ll be left deciding between Strasburg, Darvish and Greinke in the top tier. The main issue with Darvish is that his BB rate is up to 10.6% while Ks are slightly down at 26.6%. He’ll take on a Jays that owns an 88 wRC+ and 20.6% K rate to RH pitching. The problem is that the Jays just got Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back. The one positive here is Darvish should have a rather long leash after A.J. Griffin went just 1.1 innings last night.

Quick Breakdown: – Ultimately, a matchup with the Jays is enough to push me off Darvish in cash games. Both Greinke and Strasburg have better matchups on paper.

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 10 3.42 3.30 27.2% 6.2% 36.1% 27.8% 16.0%

I think I say this every time Marco Estrada is on the slate but the man is a magician. He has a 47% fly ball rate which would normally be a bad thing. He’s only allowing hard contact at 27% though. In short, when batters make contact, they are generally hitting medium-range fly balls. With Estrada posting an elevated 27.1% K rate through 10 starts he’s at least in the conversation as an SP2. The Rangers are 10th in K% to RH pitchers at 22.1%.

Quick Breakdown: – The main issue with Estrada is that he’s almost priced like an ace across the industry. Even though Estrada boasts a 12.2% SwStr% this season it’s tough to believe that he’s a true 27% K pitcher when he’s been closer to 22% his entire career.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Estrada isn’t the ideal pitcher to target on this slate but we could hunt for a home run given his fly ball tendencies. He’s been a reverse splits pitcher over the last 12 months with a .300 wOBA to RH batters. I don’t mind taking a chance on Jonathan Lucroy or Mike Napoli as they both hit RH pitching well. Nomar Mazara is also a strong option from the left side of the plate as he has a .192 ISO against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.319 0.369 0.124 42.3% 13.0% 21.4% 47.8% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.331 0.321 0.136 27.7% 7.8% 13.8% 46.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.193 30.8% 7.8% 18.3% 44.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.353 0.340 0.180 32.1% 7.4% 14.8% 41.6% C $2,900 C $3,400 C $6,800
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.302 0.236 34.3% 3.3% 21.4% 39.4% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.322 0.334 0.232 34.5% 9.7% 29.7% 36.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.321 0.303 0.284 41.4% 13.4% 40.8% 21.4% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
8 Jared Hoying LEFT 0.287 0.261 0.103 34.0% 4.9% 18.0% 36.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.292 0.246 0.096 20.7% 7.4% 26.4% 54.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Jonathan Lucroy and Nomar Mazara

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Toronto

While the Jays offense has been much improved and gets a boost with Donaldson and Bautista back, Yu Darvish isn’t a great pitcher to pick on. Darvish has a wOBA under .280 to batters from both sides of the plate I don’t see anyone here that deserves your consideration for cash games. .

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.119 26.5% 5.3% 14.9% 48.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.405 0.274 40.7% 14.9% 18.7% 39.6% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.365 0.371 0.220 39.1% 16.7% 22.1% 37.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.312 0.397 0.198 41.0% 8.4% 19.2% 48.2% 1B $2,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 0.345 0.201 42.4% 10.8% 33.2% 29.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.320 0.317 0.162 29.8% 11.5% 26.9% 48.8% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.356 0.190 34.7% 7.1% 17.9% 40.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.332 0.311 0.166 30.7% 5.0% 19.6% 45.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.297 0.271 0.107 24.9% 8.0% 20.9% 56.6% OF $2,500 OF $2,700 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

LA Angels at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Miami
Article Image J.C. Ramirez Article Image Vance Worley
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.300 27.0% 5.8% 16.5% 51.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.309 32.8% 11.8% 16.7% 48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.286 33.0% 6.9% 20.6% 51.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.313 33.1% 7.1% 13.6% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.C. Ramirez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.81 4.35 17.6% 6.6% 54.9% 26.4% 21.2%
2017 8 3.94 3.81 20.3% 6.0% 45.2% 35.9% 16.4%

Coming off a solid outing against Tampa Bay, J.C. Ramirez deserves some consideration as an SP2 today. He’s priced essentially the same as C.C. Sabathia. If we took away the names and showed only stats you probaby couldn’t tell which is which. That’s not necessarily a ringing endorsement of Ramirez given where Sabathia is at in his career. Ramirez has a 20.3% K rate in eight starts this season. He’s been able to keep walks to 6% and the ball on the ground a decent amount. He’ll take on a Marlins offense that is 20th is K% at 20.5% but 24th in wRC+ against RH pitching. The big concern here is a 35.9% hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: J.C. Ramirez has the same type of profile as C.C. Sabathia without the name value. He struggles a bit against LH hitters with a 16.5% K rate. He’ll need to work around a couple of decent LH batters along with Stanton but Marlins Park is at least a little bit forgiving to pitchers that struggle with hard contact. Ramirez is in play as an SP2.

Vance Worley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 4.79 3.53 15.3% 9.6% 48.1% 31.6% 15.2%
2017 1 4.34 6.75 10.5% 5.3% 60.0% 56.3% 0.0%

Vance Worley has resurfaced in the majors after making eight starts in the minors this season. Worley has a somewhat impressive ground ball rate of about 45.8% in his career. There’s no upside here though as Worley’s 10.5% K rate is backed by a 5.4% career SwStr%. He’ll attempt to lean on ground balls today in a park with plenty of space. While that should work for what the Marlins need, it won’t for DFS purposes.

Quick Breakdown: – The Angels are 22nd in K% against RH pitching and Vance Worley brings nothing to offset that. There’s not enough upside here.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Despite attempting to be a ground ball pitcher, Vance Worley owns a career .329 wOBA to LH and .331 to RH batters. The hard contact rate of 56.3% can’t be relied upon because of sample size. Worley is somewhere closer to 30% in his career. Mike Trout is obviously the top option here with a wOBA of .436 against RH pitching. Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun also profile out pretty well against RH pitching. Even Martin Maldonado is in play as a punt catcher. He had a home run and a double last night. He’s still priced at the minimum almost everywhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.326 0.339 0.155 34.4% 9.8% 18.7% 38.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
2 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.308 0.308 0.092 27.6% 6.1% 8.9% 54.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
3 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.436 0.434 0.284 41.2% 17.0% 21.1% 39.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.317 0.361 0.163 35.5% 7.9% 13.3% 44.7% 1B $3,000 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.334 0.331 0.194 37.7% 13.8% 24.9% 37.4% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.271 0.289 0.126 27.9% 10.3% 21.7% 46.9% C $2,500 C $2,100 C $4,000
7 Ben Revere LEFT 0.252 0.257 0.096 22.3% 4.3% 9.1% 57.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.279 0.285 0.139 31.3% 9.9% 30.1% 39.0% 2B $2,100 2B $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Jesse Chavez RIGHT 0.000 0.064 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $6,800 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – Mike Trout and Albert Pujols

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun and Martin Maldonado

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Miami

If you decide to target J.C. Ramirez, you need to do it with LH power. Ramirez has a .308 wOBA to LH batters and a 16.5% K rate. He’s also struggled to keep the ball down against LH batters with a 38.7% GB rate. Christian Yelich and Justin Bour are the top options as they own a .371 and .360 wOBA against RH pitching respectively. If building a stack, Derek Dietrich Giancarlo Stanton and J.T. Realmuto might be worth a look. That’s not something I’m doing though as I think you can pitch Ramirez in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.294 0.243 0.075 19.3% 5.3% 16.0% 56.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.326 0.329 0.219 37.9% 9.5% 29.2% 39.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.371 0.386 0.196 40.5% 11.9% 19.9% 54.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.332 0.334 0.181 36.8% 7.7% 20.0% 46.7% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.360 0.395 0.237 39.6% 12.1% 16.8% 45.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.309 0.110 30.5% 5.1% 16.8% 50.5% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,500
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.342 0.344 0.144 29.0% 8.2% 20.3% 37.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.285 0.345 0.222 47.1% 4.8% 14.3% 34.4% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.031 0.072 0.000 11.5% 1.6% 57.8% 80.0% P $8,500 P $7,500 P $15,000

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Editor’s Note: Michael Fulmer and Tyler Danish will now start Game 1, while Buck Farmer and Derek Holland will start Game 2 of their double-header.

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Detroit Chicago White Sox
Article Image Buck Farmer Article Image Derek Holland
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-131 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.323 28.6% 16.2% 16.2% 55.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.263 19.3% 4.9% 22.1% 52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.290 20.6% 14.0% 26.3% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.357 36.9% 8.7% 14.8% 35.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Buck Farmer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,700
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.97 4.60 20.6% 15.3% 51.8% 25.3% 25.3%

I have to admit that I’m at least a little bit intrigued by Buck Farmer as an SP2 strictly based on price and matchup. First, let’s talk about the bad news. Farmer has about 72 innings worth of major league work. He has a .431 wOBA to LH and a 15.9% K rate. Against RH batters it’s a little better at .352 wOBA and and 18.2% K rate. In nine starts in AAA this season Farmer has a 23.8% K rate and a 4.4% BB rate. Today, he’ll draw a matchup with a White Sox team that is eighth in K% at 22.8% and owns a wRC+ of 82.

Quick Breakdown: – Whether Farmer makes any of my tournament lineups will ultimately depend on how many LH batters make the lineup. That said, this is only for the deepest of tournaments and is simply a price play. There really isn’t enough hitting on the early slate to justify this play. In cash games, you obviously want to step up to the mid-tier for your SP2.

Derek Holland
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 5.10 4.95 14.5% 7.6% 38.3% 32.2% 17.7%
2017 9 4.61 2.47 19.4% 8.8% 38.0% 37.7% 18.2%

Derek Holland owns a career fly ball rate of 37.1% with hard contact over 30%. His K rate is up to 19.4% this season but Holland’s SwStr% of 7.8% doesn’t really tell the same story. Either way, the Tigers have a league average K% against LH pitching at 21.6% with a .325 wOBA. Over the last 12 months, Holland has a .338 wOBA to and .239 wOBA to LH batters. The Tigers should be able to run out a RH heavy lineup today that hits LH pitching well.

Quick Breakdown: – I don’t have any interest in Holland given the matchup here and similarly-priced options across the industry. It’s possible that Holland could have a good game but we can find the same type of score with a lot less risk elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Holland has a 14.8% BB rate, .338 wOBA and allows 36.9% hard contact to RH batters. Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and Victor Martinez are all in play here. The Tigers have a shot to tee off on Holland as his hard hit rate to RH this season is at 42% while fly balls are at 46.9%. The Tigers also have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.307 0.302 0.148 30.1% 5.3% 7.6% 39.0% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.332 0.313 0.107 11.8% 19.4% 30.6% 58.8% C $3,300 1B/C $3,500 C $6,800
3 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.318 0.151 34.4% 7.7% 14.4% 40.4% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.381 0.412 0.230 46.3% 8.8% 21.3% 42.1% OF $4,000 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.325 0.341 0.198 38.3% 9.1% 28.2% 38.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.283 0.342 0.215 38.9% 5.6% 26.9% 33.3% 3B $2,800 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.153 0.242 0.028 34.6% 7.7% 25.6% 65.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 John Hicks RIGHT 0.406 0.460 0.222 37.5% 10.0% 10.0% 50.0% 1B $2,300 1B/C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.280 0.273 0.048 28.9% 8.6% 17.1% 58.8% OF $2,300 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton and Victor Martinez

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Chicago White Sox

Even though I said you can use Buck Farmer, you can also stack the White Sox today, just not in the same lineup. The ideal way to attack Farmer is going to be with LH power. Melky Cabrera and Leury Garcia come the closest to fitting that description. Farmer isn’t likely to toss an absolute gem though which means that the White Sox will also gets a shot at a Tigers bullpen that is pretty terrible. Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia are both in pay here as they hit RH pitching decently well. They can certainly handle Farmer if he doesn’t bring his best stuff.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.275 0.275 0.133 20.1% 3.9% 26.1% 39.4% 2B $2,700 2B $2,900 2B $5,600
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.327 0.331 0.139 29.3% 7.7% 9.9% 44.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.345 0.348 0.171 31.9% 6.0% 17.3% 45.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.325 0.329 0.167 30.7% 6.1% 24.4% 52.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.315 0.317 0.215 31.1% 9.7% 23.0% 38.7% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.303 0.275 0.158 29.9% 3.1% 26.6% 51.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.359 0.322 0.238 26.7% 3.8% 16.5% 55.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.341 0.313 0.284 38.9% 4.2% 45.1% 27.8% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
9 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.249 0.314 0.077 35.0% 0.0% 22.2% 55.0% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,500

Elite Plays – Melky Cabrera and Leury Garcia

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Minnesota
Article Image Jake Odorizzi Article Image Adalberto Mejia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-102 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.274 31.0% 6.6% 26.0% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.600 0.466 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.346 35.1% 7.0% 18.5% 34.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.390 0.376 32.1% 13.6% 16.1% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 8 3.95 3.14 22.2% 6.0% 33.9% 32.8% 13.5%

I’ve hinted that there are a couple of decent mid-range options today. Jake Odorizzi is my preferred play in that range. At least on DraftKings where he’s all the way down to $7,600. Odorizzi has shown reverse splits over his career with a .283 wOBA to LH and .324 wOBA to RH batters. He also has an increased K% of 26.5% to LH compared to 18.5% to RH. The Twins would be doing us a favor if they roll out a LH heavy lineup. As far as the bad news goes, The Twins have a 21.9% K rate, .335 wOBA and 110 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: No matter where you go with your SP2 today you can find at least a small issue with the matchup. Odorizzi offers the best combination of safety and upside, especially on sites like DraftKings where he’s priced almost the same as Ramirez and Sabathia.

Adalberto Mejia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 7.02 7.71 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 41.7% 8.3%
2017 4 5.42 4.96 17.8% 13.7% 42.9% 28.6% 26.5%

Adalberto Mejia will be making his fifth start of the season. He’s bounced back and forth between the majors and minors this year. The stats in the chart above don’t look all that great when you remember that Meija has faced the White Sox twice and Royals once. We have onlly 18 innings of major league work to evaluate here and it hasn’t been great. Meija is sporting a 15.1% K rate and 12.8% BB rate. The only good news here is that the Rays lead the league in K% against LH pitching at 28.4%. I suppose Meija deserves the same recommendation as Buck Farmer a an SP2 in the deepest of tournaments. Again though, the slate doesn’t really justify taking a risk like that.

Quick Breakdown: Meija has an excellent matchup against a Rays team that owns a 28.4% K Rate but he simply hasn’t shown enough strikeout ability at the major league level to make me believe he can take advantage.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

We can probably ignore the small sample Meija offers and simply target raw talent. The one splits-based play is Rickie Weeks. He almost always draws a favorable batting spot against LH pitching. He owns a .378 wOBA. Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison and Evan Longoria are also in play. They hit LH pitching decently well and Meija is certainly nothing special based on what he’s shown at the major league level.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.319 0.291 0.141 38.6% 8.0% 32.0% 54.7% SS $2,800 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.313 0.287 0.118 33.0% 4.7% 28.7% 52.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.298 0.336 0.172 34.5% 10.0% 21.9% 37.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.317 0.323 0.132 29.4% 10.6% 23.1% 48.5% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.288 0.285 0.140 33.0% 7.3% 36.2% 40.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.303 0.273 0.141 30.7% 9.6% 26.3% 45.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
7 Rickie Weeks RIGHT 0.378 0.388 0.279 47.8% 13.9% 28.7% 39.1% OF $2,400 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
8 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.280 0.321 0.151 42.0% 10.1% 21.9% 30.4% C $2,600 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.390 0.281 0.176 31.3% 5.6% 5.6% 43.8% OF $2,200 2B/3B $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – Rickie Weeks

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza, and Evan Longoria

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Minnesota

I’m interested to see what lineup the Twins roll out today. Odorizzi has a .262 wOBA and 26% K rate against LH hitting over the last 12 months. Against RH hitting it is .332 wOBA and 18.5% K rate. Max Kepler and Joe Mauer would stand out against a normal RH pitcher. In this situation though I prefer Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano as they have the power to take advantage of Odorizzi’s 35.1% hard contact to RH hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.352 0.331 0.242 33.2% 9.0% 19.7% 38.1% 2B $3,900 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.342 0.392 0.134 33.8% 14.1% 14.4% 47.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.354 0.350 0.235 43.4% 11.8% 36.9% 32.7% 3B $3,800 3B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.354 0.329 0.225 35.6% 10.8% 18.5% 43.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.338 0.311 0.259 32.7% 10.7% 30.9% 33.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.321 0.309 0.119 24.1% 8.1% 12.1% 35.5% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.309 0.282 0.183 32.3% 3.6% 23.8% 45.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.282 0.233 0.164 22.8% 6.5% 36.1% 36.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.320 0.188 35.7% 13.2% 31.7% 42.6% C $2,500 C $2,800 C $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.