MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 23rd
Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Houston at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
| Houston | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||
 | Joe Musgrove |  | Matt Andriese | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| HOU-101 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.326 | 32.7% | 7.4% | 19.9% | 49.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.303 | 35.5% | 6.3% | 19.5% | 41.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.344 | 33.3% | 5.8% | 19.6% | 42.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.316 | 35.7% | 4.0% | 21.6% | 44.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Joe Musgrove | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 10 | 3.98 | 4.06 | 21.5% | 6.3% | 43.4% | 34.6% | 18.1% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.62 | 5.87 | 13.0% | 7.3% | 50.0% | 27.8% | 24.1% | |
Welcome, Grinders! As is usual on Sundays, the sites have chopped up the day’s games into multiple slates. At DraftKings, the 1:10pm EST main slate features the first eight games of the day, and they’ve chosen to follow this up with an afternoon slate featuring all seven games starting at 3:05pm EST onward. Over at FanDuel, we’ve got the main slate, which starts at 1:10pm EST and also features eight games. They’ve also added a late slate that includes all games from 4:05pm EST forward, which means that if you want to play the Royals/Rangers, Giants/Rockies, or Blue Jays/Angels games, you’ll have to play the express slate or the all-day slate, both of which have much lower prize pools. This is my second week of doing the Grind Down, and I’m open to any feedback you guys have. Feel free to leave a comment below or follow me on Twitter. On to the games!
It’s not unusual for younger pitchers to prefer to pitch in their home parks, and Joe Musgrove is a pretty remarkable example of this. Here’s an interesting note about Musgrove: there’s a gap of 4.15 runs between his career home and road ERA marks. At home, he’s put up a 2.74 ERA over 46.0 innings, while on the road, his career ERA is an unsightly 6.89 over 31.1 innings. While I expect this to normalize over time, this is a pitcher we should avoid, especially on the road. If you wanted to make a case for Musgrove, you could point out that the Rays’ 26.2 K% against righties this year is second-highest in MLB. But even then, we’re only talking deep tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Despite the positive matchup, Musgrove is too risky for anything but the deepest of tournaments.
| Matt Andriese | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,100 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 19 | 3.90 | 4.37 | 20.7% | 4.7% | 42.9% | 34.3% | 16.6% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 3.84 | 3.38 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 44.0% | 46.0% | 16.0% | |
Matt Andriese comes in as a small home favorite against the Houston Astros. Andriese has quietly been a dependable arm in the Rays’ rotation for close to a year now, posting a 3.89 SIERA that is identical to Carlos Martinez’s, a respectable 20.6 K% that is the same as Michael Fulmer’s, and a 5.0% BB rate that is just a tick better than Noah Syndergaard’s 5.1% mark. Still, this feels like a classic “better real life pitcher than DFS pitcher” scenario. On Sunday, Andriese has the home park and not much else going for him, as the Astros’ 130 wRC+ ranks second-best against right-handed pitching this season. Even worse for Andriese is their newfound plate discipline. The 2017 version of the Astros strike out just 18.5 percent of the time, fourth-best in MLB.
Quick Breakdown: Steady real-life pitcher, but that’s not enough to make him playable today, especially given the matchup.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.175 | 30.8% | 10.8% | 24.4% | 49.9% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,500 | ||
| 2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.171 | 32.9% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 39.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.188 | 32.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 42.2% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $4,800 | ||
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.181 | 36.0% | 10.0% | 21.3% | 50.6% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,700 | ||
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.197 | 31.9% | 5.8% | 16.9% | 46.5% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 6 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.197 | 30.4% | 7.5% | 22.5% | 32.6% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B/SS | $3,900 | ||
| 7 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.177 | 37.4% | 11.1% | 19.1% | 33.0% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | ||
| 8 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.153 | 26.3% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 46.9% | 3B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,300 | ||
| 9 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.131 | 21.5% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 56.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 |
Both the ballpark and Andriese’s ability to limit walks minimize the upside of an Astros stack. That said, this lineup is just loaded top to bottom with viable plays for both cash games and tournaments. Jose Altuve got a “jack-and-a-bag” yesterday (to coin Pepsi7’s term), and he’s rarely a bad play for cash, and if Derek Norris is behind the plate, he sees a slight boost in steals upside, as Norris’s 82 steals allowed since 2016 is the most in MLB. Josh Reddick should bat second, and he dominates right-handed pitching. Since 2016, he has a higher batting average than Joey Votto against righties (.323 for Reddick, .319 for Votto). Brian McCann has been batting high in the order on occasion and strikes out less than 10 percent of the time against righties. Finally, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Correa make the cut as secondary options. George Springer left yesterday’s game with an injury, but should he suit up, he can be considered a secondary option, as well.
Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick
Secondary Plays – Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Correa
Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
Tampa Bay
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.256 | 31.2% | 6.5% | 22.9% | 33.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 2 | Kevin Kiermaier | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.157 | 31.6% | 9.6% | 17.1% | 44.2% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,600 | ||
| 3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.251 | 37.3% | 6.3% | 22.0% | 32.2% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,300 | ||
| 4 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.248 | 35.8% | 8.1% | 25.4% | 44.7% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,800 | ||
| 5 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.178 | 32.0% | 8.2% | 31.4% | 40.8% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 6 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.193 | 35.4% | 8.9% | 21.5% | 42.7% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,400 | ||
| 7 | Derek Norris | RIGHT | 0.234 | 0.134 | 30.8% | 6.5% | 33.5% | 36.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,900 | ||
| 8 | Shane Peterson | LEFT | 0.464 | 0.364 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 27.3% | 12.5% | OF | $2,300 | ||||
| 9 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.179 | 38.0% | 3.9% | 30.7% | 44.3% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,100 |
We never want too much exposure to hitters at Tropicana Field, but Joe Musgrove has struggled enough this year that we can target a few hitters against him. Out of the leadoff spot, Corey Dickerson remains way underpriced, particularly at DraftKings, where he’s $3,500. For context, he’s priced alongside guys like Norichika Aoki and Arismendy Alcantara. Kevin Kiermaier is also underpriced at DraftKings, but at FanDuel, he’s a bit expensive. Evan Longoria hits righties well and is cheap enough at FanDuel to merit consideration as a secondary play.
Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier (DK)
Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria (FD)
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Bronson Arroyo | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CHC-156 | 9.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.304 | 33.9% | 9.1% | 21.6% | 46.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.265 | 23.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 42.9% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.270 | 34.0% | 5.6% | 26.1% | 38.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.514 | 36.4% | 4.9% | 14.6% | 32.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| John Lackey | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29 | 3.83 | 3.35 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 41.0% | 34.4% | 16.2% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 3.38 | 4.00 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 49.0% | 29.4% | 17.7% | |
In our second game, we’ve got a battle between two grizzled old vets, as John Lackey squares off against Bronson Arroyo (combined ages: 78 years, 238 days). In his last time out, Lackey was the chalk on a weak slate for pitching. It’s the same story today, as Lackey is more viable than he might ordinarily be given the dearth of quality arms on the early slate. Lackey’s out-of-nowhere bump in strikeout rate from last year appears to have carried over into 2017, as his 24.2% K rate is well above league average. The fact that he gave up three long balls in his last start against the Brewers is a bit concerning, as is the ballpark. The pitching on Sunday’s early slate is so bad, though, that Lackey is a cash game option, albeit an uninspiring one.
Quick Breakdown: On an ugly slate for pitching, Lackey is a de facto cash game option, falling just behind Danny Salazar.
| Bronson Arroyo | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $4,300 | Salary: | $8,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3 | 4.96 | 8.40 | 13.2% | 7.4% | 36.5% | 31.5% | 13.0% | |
On the other side of this game, musician and aspiring MLB pitcher Bronson Arroyo takes the hill. He got his first win since 2014 in his last start, but let’s be real. He’s allowed 10 extra-base hits this year (including five home runs) and has struck out nine batters. He has a FIP of 7.03. His fastball is clocking in at 84 mph. And guess what? His .265 BABIP suggests he’s been lucky this year. Stay far away from Arroyo.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.170 | 46.2% | 12.7% | 38.2% | 56.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.227 | 39.0% | 10.1% | 22.8% | 30.5% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $5,100 | IF/OF | $10,000 |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.398 | 0.254 | 37.3% | 11.8% | 17.2% | 35.5% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $9,900 |
| 4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.179 | 32.9% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 47.0% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/OF | $4,800 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
| 5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.159 | 27.8% | 7.6% | 21.6% | 42.2% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
| 6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.095 | 27.1% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 45.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,600 |
| 7 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.202 | 32.6% | 10.5% | 27.4% | 53.2% | C | $2,800 | C | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 8 | John Lackey | RIGHT | 0.162 | 0.041 | 25.0% | 3.6% | 45.5% | 45.8% | P | $9,200 | P | $8,300 | P | $16,200 |
| 9 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.141 | 28.4% | 1.5% | 27.1% | 44.9% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,100 |
The Cubs’ bats have come alive, and they’ve scored 9, 7, 6, and 12 runs in their last four games. When you factor in the matchup against Arroyo, the ballpark, the 4.83 implied run total (the highest non-Coors total on the slate), and their offensive explosion yesterday against Cody Reed, all signs point to Cubs’ bats being the clear chalk on Sunday. After homering a combined one time in the first 15 games of the season, Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo have each homered in consecutive games. Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant are elite plays, as well. If you’re stacking, it would be wise to include a non-Kris-Bryant righty or two in order to differentiate your lineup in large-field GPPs. Luckily, the Cubs have a few, namely Addison Russell and Willson Contreras, who hit a grand slam in yesterday’s game.
Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell
Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Willson Contreras
Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.304 | 0.078 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 19.1% | 47.5% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.072 | 17.1% | 2.0% | 11.6% | 44.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.249 | 41.3% | 17.3% | 15.1% | 38.0% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.258 | 38.1% | 6.1% | 26.9% | 33.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.148 | 34.4% | 7.5% | 23.5% | 39.2% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.169 | 32.6% | 7.8% | 21.6% | 52.9% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.163 | 30.2% | 7.9% | 15.9% | 39.4% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.125 | 32.0% | 9.5% | 13.8% | 44.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
| 9 | Bronson Arroyo | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $4,300 | P | $8,400 |
While John Lackey isn’t a pitcher to be feared, there are better spots to go for offense on Sunday. That said, we can expect low ownership, which makes a few Reds bats interesting for tournament one-offs. Since the start of last year, Joey Votto has a 47.8% hard contact rate against righties at Great American Ball Park. To put that into perspective, league average hard contact last year was 31.4%, and the last player to eclipse that mark over a full season was Ryan Howard in 2007 (55.2%). Votto is an excellent tournament play, although his performance yesterday (32 DraftKings points) could drive his ownership up a bit. Looking a bit deeper, Adam Duvall has proven equally capable against righties and lefties (104 wRC+ vs. RHP, 106 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2016), though his high strikeout rate makes him nothing more than a tournament leverage play against likely high Lackey ownership. As always, the Reds make for a fun team to stack given the base stealers at the top of the order (Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza), followed by its middle-of-the-order power bats like Duvall and Votto.
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
NY Yankees at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||
 | Jordan Montgomery |  | Ivan Nova | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| PIT-120 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.143 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.356 | 37.4% | 3.4% | 12.8% | 45.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.392 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 19.5% | 34.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.298 | 30.9% | 3.9% | 21.4% | 60.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jordan Montgomery | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $11,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | 3.78 | 4.22 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 36.7% | 23.3% | 13.3% | |
Two starts into his MLB career, Jordan Montgomery is showing flashes of being a capable big-league arm. In the small sample, he’s got an impressive 23.9 K% and 14.1% swinging strike rate. While he’s been tagged for a few runs, he’s allowed just 23.3% hard hits, which suggests that his current .357 BABIP should even out at some point. He’s had two plus matchups (Rays, White Sox), and on Sunday, he gets another, as he takes on a Pirates team that has struggled to hit left-handed pitching this year. He’s certainly not a cash game play, but he makes some sense as a flier in large-field tournaments, especially with the Pirates projected to score just 3.87 runs, sixth-lowest of the day.
Quick Breakdown: Risky but playable in deeper tournaments, especially at FanDuel.
| Ivan Nova | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $13,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 26 | 3.76 | 4.17 | 18.6% | 4.1% | 53.6% | 34.4% | 18.5% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.04 | 2.25 | 10.1% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | |
Ivan Nova is a slight home favorite in a revenge game against the New York Yankees. Ever since he came over to the Pirates from New York, Nova has induced a ton of ground balls (although at 50.0% ground balls, he’s a bit down from the 53.6% he put up last year). He’s just not striking anybody out. Couple that with the fact that the Yankees are striking out at the sixth-lowest rate against righties this year (20.7%), and this should be a pitcher that is out of bounds. But given the lack of pitching on the early slate, we can dig a little deeper. First and most obviously, there’s Vegas. Apart from the Mets against Max Scherzer, no team has a lower implied total than the Yankees’ 3.63 runs. Also, Nova’s 60.0% ground ball rate against righties since 2015 is so extreme that it could potentially neutralize the power of Aaron Judge. And finally, some of the Yankees’ best hitters have really struggled with ground ball pitchers over the years; since 2015, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Chase Headley all have OPS marks below .686 (for context, last year’s league average OPS was .706). Combine all that with the ballpark, and the risk of a blowup is low, making Nova playable for cash games.
Quick Breakdown: In play as a low-risk, low-upside SP2 for cash games.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.105 | 25.9% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 51.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,600 |
| 2 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.172 | 31.7% | 11.2% | 25.6% | 42.5% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,300 |
| 3 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.125 | 27.5% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 47.2% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.167 | 30.7% | 3.9% | 18.9% | 50.3% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 5 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.264 | 50.0% | 8.2% | 36.9% | 42.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.237 | 0.167 | 50.0% | 10.0% | 35.0% | 28.6% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,800 |
| 7 | Austin Romine | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.140 | 24.4% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 40.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,200 |
| 8 | Ronald Torreyes | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.155 | 22.7% | 2.5% | 9.9% | 48.6% | 3B | $2,500 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,800 |
| 9 | Jordan Montgomery | LEFT | P | $6,600 | P | $5,900 | P | $11,600 |
Nova’s last start was, more or less, a perfect example of the pitcher he’s become: he pitched deep into the game, he recorded minimal strikeouts, but he limited the damage. It feels odd to have so little interest in the same team that put up 11 runs against a better pitcher in Jameson Taillon on Saturday, but Nova just doesn’t feel like a pitcher to pick on. That said, Aaron Judge always merits consideration simply based on his power upside.
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge
Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.157 | 26.5% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 40.2% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
| 2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.167 | 36.1% | 1.8% | 15.5% | 37.6% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.208 | 32.7% | 12.6% | 18.9% | 38.8% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.204 | 31.2% | 8.1% | 29.8% | 45.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,100 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.424 | 0.216 | 45.7% | 15.0% | 26.7% | 58.6% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.015 | 43.4% | 14.1% | 16.7% | 59.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.170 | 0.000 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 55.2% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,200 | IF/OF | $6,300 |
| 8 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.000 | 20.7% | 5.6% | 13.9% | 62.1% | SS | $2,500 | 2B/OF | $3,100 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 9 | Ivan Nova | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% | 66.7% | P | $7,300 | P | $7,000 | P | $13,800 |
The Pirates offense at PNC Park is not a combination that looks to be very profitable this year, especially now that they’ve lost arguably their best hitter (Starling Marte) for 80 games. However, there are a few cheap bats that are in play simply because their salaries allow you to fit other, more desirable pieces into your lineups. Jordy Mercer remains cheap and will have the platoon edge against Montgomery from the leadoff spot. David Freese has always hit lefties well. In fact, he’s one of just 10 players (on a list that includes guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan Braun, Yoenis Cespedes, and Kris Bryant) with 100 PAs against lefties to post a .420+ wOBA and .200+ ISO against lefties. Maybe the .456 BABIP in that split has something to do with that…
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – David Freese, Jordy Mercer
Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Boston at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Kevin Gausman | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| BAL-116 | 9.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.330 | 20.6% | 9.0% | 26.0% | 39.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.293 | 31.6% | 6.1% | 22.7% | 37.9% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.317 | 30.8% | 9.4% | 22.0% | 28.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.351 | 29.5% | 7.6% | 21.5% | 48.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Eduardo Rodriguez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $11,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20 | 4.44 | 4.71 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 31.6% | 27.6% | 22.2% | |
| 2017 | 2 | 3.70 | 4.76 | 32.6% | 15.2% | 20.8% | 45.8% | 16.7% | |
Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill against the team that traded him for Andrew Miller back in 2014. Rodriguez was dominant over the last two months of last season, holding opponents to a .185 average and posting a 3.30 ERA and 25.9 K% during that span. While he’s given up three home runs in his two starts this year, the strikeout upside is still there, as evidenced by the 13 strikeouts he’s racked up in just over 11 innings of work. The Orioles do present strikeout upside for lefties (just ask Amir Garrett, who notched 12 Ks against Baltimore on April 19th). For that reason, Rodriguez is very interesting for tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: Strong tournament play on a day where fading the chalk options at pitcher could yield big returns.
| Kevin Gausman | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | 3.81 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 6.2% | 44.1% | 31.1% | 18.3% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.43 | 7.23 | 14.0% | 12.9% | 42.4% | 25.4% | 25.4% | |
Kevin Gausman got shelled in his last start, serving up eight earned runs to the Reds before being pulled in the fourth. Equally as concerning as that start, though, is the fact that he’s started four games this season and not reached five strikeouts in any of them. As a slight favorite at home, Gausman isn’t totally out of play. He is at home, and after all, this is a pitcher with some pretty serious home/road splits throughout his career (3.14 ERA and .295 wOBA allowed at home, 4.97 ERA and .341 wOBA allowed on the road). But against the Red Sox, who are one of the most disciplined teams at the plate in all of baseball (16.3 K% vs. RHP, second-lowest in MLB this year), the upside is very limited.
Quick Breakdown: In play as a deep tournament flier, but only because of the weak crop of pitchers on the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.126 | 33.3% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 50.6% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 2 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.206 | 33.6% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 34.6% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
| 3 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.205 | 33.5% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 42.2% | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,200 |
| 4 | Mitch Moreland | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.192 | 38.9% | 7.6% | 22.9% | 38.9% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.174 | 37.0% | 9.2% | 19.5% | 49.3% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | IF/OF | $9,000 |
| 6 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.138 | 29.1% | 6.8% | 17.0% | 47.2% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,200 |
| 7 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.259 | 39.9% | 10.7% | 21.4% | 45.8% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 | CF | $8,800 |
| 8 | Pablo Sandoval | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.217 | 50.0% | 7.8% | 25.5% | 35.3% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,800 |
| 9 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.306 | 0.128 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 26.2% | 43.9% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
Kevin Gausman has accrued over 300 innings at the major league level since 2015, and during that time, he has allowed a .288 wOBA to lefties and a .353 wOBA to righties. In a game with an over/under of 9 runs, we can target a number of right-handed Red Sox bats. In last Sunday’s Grind Down, I mentioned that Mookie Betts had not struck out a single time this season. I really wanted to write that for a second week in a row, but unfortunately, he struck out three times last week. Assuming he can get his 4.8 K% under control, he’s an elite play at FanDuel, although the $5,500 price tag at DraftKings is a bit much. Xander Bogaerts could bat leadoff again, as he did Saturday with Dustin Pedroia out of the lineup; if so, he’s an elite play. Mitch Moreland and Jackie Bradley, Jr. are lefties, but their numbers against right-handed pitching are strong enough to merit consideration, as well.
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (FD), Xander Bogaerts (if leading off)
Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (DK), Mitch Moreland, Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
Baltimore
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craig Gentry | RIGHT | 0.209 | 0.095 | 12.5% | 6.4% | 23.4% | 63.3% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,200 | LF | $6,400 |
| 2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.109 | 31.8% | 6.7% | 20.8% | 39.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
| 3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.196 | 39.2% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 39.9% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,700 | 3B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.194 | 37.6% | 5.9% | 26.9% | 41.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
| 5 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.180 | 32.8% | 10.2% | 33.3% | 34.4% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
| 6 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.220 | 52.0% | 8.3% | 23.6% | 40.8% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,200 |
| 7 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.479 | 0.467 | 30.4% | 3.2% | 22.6% | 56.5% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B/OF | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 8 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.162 | 21.6% | 4.0% | 24.4% | 49.6% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.165 | 43.7% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 45.6% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
For a team full of right-handed power, the Orioles sure struggle against left-handed pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez has had success against this team, with a 32.2% K rate and .218 average allowed over 87 at-bats. In particular, he’s gotten the best of Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Jonathan Schoop, who are a combined 5-for-40 with one extra-base hit, one RBI, and 16 strikeouts against Rodriguez. We don’t want to rely too much on BvP numbers, but even looking at the larger sample dating back to 2016, Mark Trumbo (56 wRC+ vs. LHP), Adam Jones (59 wRC+), and Jonathan Schoop (80 wRC+) have been better against righties than lefties. Manny Machado, Welington Castillo, and (in a much, much smaller sample) Trey Mancini have crushed left-handed pitching and can be considered elite plays on this slate. A full stack isn’t out of the question given that Rodriguez is a young pitcher who has had some extremely bad outings early in his career.
Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini
Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
Atlanta at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | ||||||||||
 | Mike Foltynewicz |  | Zach Eflin | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| ATL-103 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.331 | 34.4% | 9.0% | 20.9% | 31.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.369 | 36.3% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 37.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.327 | 26.6% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 48.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.306 | 30.1% | 6.2% | 15.2% | 34.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Mike Foltynewicz | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | 4.13 | 4.31 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 41.2% | 29.8% | 20.4% | |
| 2017 | 2 | 5.34 | 4.26 | 13.8% | 12.1% | 37.5% | 33.3% | 16.7% | |
Mike Foltynewicz has teased fantasy players for some time with his maddening combination of high velocity and low strikeout numbers. While he’s right around league average since 2016 in the strikeout department with a 20.4 K%, it always feels like he’s on the brink of DFS relevance. On the positive side of things, he exceeded 100 pitches in his last start and had a decent outing in a tough matchup with Washington, allowing just two earned runs. He’ll need to string together several starts like that in order to be trustworthy for DFS purposes.
Quick Breakdown: Too risky for cash games without the strikeout upside for GPPs. Avoid in all formats.
| Zach Eflin | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,600 | Salary: | $9,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11 | 5.41 | 5.54 | 11.4% | 6.3% | 36.2% | 33.2% | 17.5% | |
| 2017 | 1 | 5.24 | 3.60 | 19.1% | 14.3% | 35.7% | 35.7% | 28.6% | |
Zach Eflin has the highest SIERA and the lowest K% on the slate. He’s an easy fade.
Quick Breakdown: No thanks.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.116 | 26.3% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 43.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Adonis Garcia | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.131 | 30.0% | 3.4% | 17.0% | 52.2% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.423 | 0.305 | 43.7% | 14.8% | 22.7% | 28.0% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,000 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.222 | 37.4% | 5.3% | 24.3% | 39.7% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,000 |
| 5 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.158 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 40.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Brandon Phillips | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.123 | 28.4% | 3.2% | 11.6% | 48.3% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
| 7 | Tyler Flowers | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.141 | 45.3% | 8.2% | 28.0% | 45.3% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.099 | 31.4% | 7.3% | 24.7% | 42.5% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,400 |
| 9 | Mike Foltynewicz | RIGHT | 0.131 | 0.029 | 21.1% | 2.6% | 48.7% | 53.3% | P | $6,900 | P | $7,100 | P | $14,000 |
Zach Eflin is a young pitcher, so we’re dealing with small samples, but since 2016, he strikes out one left-handed batter for every four that Clayton Kershaw strikes out (8.8 K% vs. LHB for Eflin, 35.2 K% vs. LHB by Kershaw). Clayton Kershaw is good, but Eflin is really, really bad, at least at this stage in his career. The Braves have a few high-contact lefties in Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman who will almost certainly put the ball in play multiple times against Eflin. Inciarte is cash game viable, and Freeman is one of the better plays on the slate. Throwing in Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp makes for an interesting low-owned, high-upside stack in tournaments.
Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman
Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte
Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
Philadelphia
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.334 | 0.117 | 26.3% | 11.0% | 19.2% | 53.2% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,400 |
| 2 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.088 | 30.0% | 9.7% | 31.1% | 50.9% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.162 | 28.6% | 9.7% | 19.9% | 42.7% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.160 | 29.5% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 44.9% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,000 |
| 5 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.187 | 37.4% | 10.6% | 27.6% | 39.2% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.218 | 37.1% | 5.2% | 22.8% | 41.5% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 7 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.178 | 27.7% | 4.6% | 22.9% | 40.3% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 8 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.171 | 33.1% | 6.5% | 27.3% | 47.6% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 9 | Zach Eflin | RIGHT | 0.176 | 0.059 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 41.2% | 70.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $4,600 | P | $9,000 |
The Phillies’ 4.23 implied run total is nothing that stands out, but if we are attacking Foltynewicz, we’re most likely doing it with left-handers. He allows a 45.2% fly ball rate and a high 33.5% hard hit rate to lefties, which means we can look to Odubel Herrera and Michael Saunders. Neither player is a must-start, but in this park, they’ve got upside.