MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 4th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-06-05 04:43:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Toronto
			Luis Severino							Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-112							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.331	28.3%	7.5%	22.4%	46.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.313	33.8%	7.5%	18.8%	60.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.321	31.7%	7.2%	25.2%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.306	28.5%	5.6%	20.1%	60.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	11	4.06	5.83	21.2%	8.0%	45.1%	29.4%	20.6%
	2017	9	3.14	3.11	27.6%	6.3%	51.4%	31.0%	17.2%

Hello, Grinders! Welcome back to another Sunday Grind Down. As usual, we’ve got a split slate on tap, with a nine-game early slate and afternoon/late slates to follow. The main slate is looking clear-cut at FanDuel, but at two-pitcher sites, we’ve got quite a bit to sort out. Let’s get started.

Severino is in the midst of a breakout year, in which he’s getting more strikeouts, more swinging strikes, allowing fewer walks, and through 10 starts, he’s carrying an elite 3.14 SIERA to go along with a 27.6% strikeout rate. In four of his past five starts, he’s fanned at least seven batters and allowed either zero or one earned run. This sounds like a cash game lock. So what’s the problem? Severino, who has been a heavy favorite for most of his recent starts, is currently a pick ‘em on the road against a powerful Toronto offense that is finally at full strength. In the past 30 days, Toronto ranks second in team wOBA (.343) and third in team ISO (.215). On the plus side, the difficult matchup seems to be baked into his price. As we’ll see, there’s no clear-cut number two option behind Chris Sale today, so Severino is certainly in play as an SP2, though I prefer him for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite tournament play, but the matchup and Vegas total has be a nervous about using him in cash games. You can certainly make the case for him as an SP2 on a slate without an obvious complement to Sale at two-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	10	3.66	3.30	19.7%	7.3%	61.0%	29.3%	22.3%

Marcus Stroman is making his 12th start of the year, and he’s got a stiff test against a dangerous Yankees offense. The Yankees rank second in wOBA and wRC+ and sixth in ISO against right-handed pitchers. There are strikeouts to be had, as the Yankees strike out at a 22.4% clip against righties. But Stroman is a low-strikeout pitcher to begin with – both his 19.9% strikeout rate and his 9.4% swinging strike rate are below league average – so we shouldn’t expect more than a handful of strikeouts here. The lack of strikeout upside would make Stroman more interesting for cash games, but the tough matchup isn’t safe enough for cash games. He’s sort of in no-man’s land, and I doubt I’ll have many (if any) shares of Stroman on Sunday.

Quick Breakdown: If I’m taking a pitcher in this game, I’m paying a bit more for the strikeout upside of Luis Severino.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.342	0.320	0.138	28.8%	12.8%	17.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,200
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.426	0.375	0.304	38.7%	9.0%	22.5%	50.3%	C	$3,700	C	$4,600	C	$9,000
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.400	0.389	0.311	48.3%	10.5%	33.8%	41.7%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,400
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.348	0.199	35.6%	9.2%	20.8%	51.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.326	0.306	0.166	30.7%	3.4%	19.2%	49.6%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.306	0.266	0.172	24.7%	3.3%	15.5%	41.8%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.337	0.309	0.154	23.4%	13.1%	17.4%	47.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,800
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.319	0.318	0.159	31.6%	10.5%	26.3%	43.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
9	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.336	0.350	0.251	39.9%	11.8%	34.3%	29.7%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700

Three years into his MLB career, Stroman has had good success against both lefties (.300 wOBA) and righties (.301 wOBA). He’s an elite ground ball pitcher, getting over 60 percent ground balls against both righties and lefties this year. I’ve cited this in my “10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes” column, but the Yankees as a team are not elite against ground ball pitchers; they rank 27th in team ISO (.118) and 25th in team OPS (.656) against ground ballers. For that reason, I’m not making it a point to target Yankees bats, and I’m certainly not stacking Yankees against the high ground ball rate of Stroman. Didi Gregorius has the platoon edge and a low ground ball rate against righties, and I have mild interest in him if he’s batting sixth.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.294	0.118	26.3%	5.1%	15.1%	48.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.403	0.402	0.272	40.4%	14.7%	19.0%	39.8%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,200
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.363	0.370	0.222	39.1%	16.5%	21.8%	36.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.315	0.398	0.202	40.8%	8.6%	18.9%	48.6%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.327	0.345	0.207	41.8%	11.0%	32.7%	30.5%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.323	0.356	0.188	34.4%	7.4%	17.6%	40.9%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.322	0.317	0.158	30.3%	11.5%	26.7%	49.8%	C	$2,600	C	$4,000	C	$7,600
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.336	0.312	0.171	31.3%	4.9%	19.5%	44.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
9	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.295	0.268	0.105	24.6%	8.1%	21.5%	57.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000

With the over/under currently at eight runs, this is the lowest total of the slate (which is strange, considering it’s the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre). Picking on Severino, who has the third-lowest SIERA on the slate and has held both righties and lefties below a .281 wOBA, isn’t a top priority. The Blue Jays offense has come to life, but this is not the spot to take your chances with them.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Cincinnati
			Julio Teheran							Amir Garrett
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-126							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.343	0.346	34.7%	10.7%	14.6%	34.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.257	0.265	25.0%	3.3%	30.0%	65.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.247	0.267	30.5%	2.7%	26.7%	41.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.359	39.3%	11.0%	16.0%	40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Julio Teheran
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2016	30	3.93	3.21	22.0%	5.4%	39.1%	33.1%	17.7%
	2017	10	5.09	4.88	17.1%	10.2%	34.5%	30.9%	24.6%

It wasn’t long ago that Julio Teheran was an upper echelon starter, but this year, he’s struggling (to put it kindly). Through 11 starts, he has a 5.02 SIERA, and his strikeouts have dipped well below league average at 17.4%. While he’s remained effective against righties (.290 wOBA, 23.6% hard hits), he’s gotten crushed by lefties (.374 wOBA, 36.8% hard hits). With both Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler diagnosed with left shoulder strains, the Reds are pretty much left with Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett, as far as lefties go. That could work in his favor. Even so, I’m wary of putting too much stock in a pitcher with a home run problem at Great American Small Park.

Quick Breakdown: If Teheran can navigate Votto, he could put up a decent line. On a day with lots of possible GPP and SP2 plays in the mid-range, though, he doesn’t make the cut for me.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Amir Garrett
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30

	2017	8	4.78	6.00	18.1%	9.8%	44.0%	37.2%	12.4%

Although he’s had his moments, Amir Garrett’s rookie campaign has been pretty rocky. Through eight starts, he has a 4.83 SIERA and a 18.1% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate is actually a bit deceptive, as Garrett struck out 12 Orioles on April 19th in what was clearly an outlier. Since that start, he’s posted an 11.8% strikeout rate. He’s also been hammered lately, allowing six home runs and 13 earned runs over his last two starts (nine innings). The Braves are a top-10 team in wOBA and wRC+ against lefties, and they strike out at just a 19.1% clip. Even as one of the cheapest pitchers on the board, Garrett carries too much risk to be trusted in any format.

Quick Breakdown: Garrett has more home runs than strikeouts in his past two starts. He’s an easy fade, even with the bargain basement price tag.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.333	0.260	0.063	16.2%	5.8%	8.5%	64.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.283	0.293	0.123	22.6%	4.3%	11.6%	43.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
3	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.281	0.306	0.069	33.3%	6.6%	15.4%	53.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.392	0.393	0.307	36.6%	6.5%	19.6%	39.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200	LF	$10,200
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.297	0.313	0.196	38.6%	3.3%	23.3%	40.9%	1B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,600	1B	$7,200
6	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.340	0.340	0.112	30.5%	7.7%	14.3%	53.9%	3B	$3,000	3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.334	0.359	0.127	37.8%	10.8%	24.2%	40.5%	C	$2,700	C	$4,000	C	$7,600
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.421	0.350	0.333	41.2%	10.6%	17.0%	35.3%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.245	0.223	0.000	11.1%	7.7%	23.1%	40.0%	P	$8,500	P	$7,900	P	$15,200

Amir Garrett has been smashed by right-handed batters this year (.366 wOBA, 2.41 HR/9) while striking them out at just a 16.0% clip. Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips are elite plays, but outside of that, the Braves don’t have a ton of appeal. Garrett’s 30.0% strikeout rate against lefties could neutralize Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, and Matt Adams. For that reason, I’m more interested in the righties as one-offs than a stack.

Elite Plays – Brandon Phillips, Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.308	0.260	0.083	19.5%	9.1%	19.6%	46.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.341	0.304	0.174	29.9%	9.1%	16.5%	38.3%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,300
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.422	0.441	0.253	40.5%	17.7%	14.8%	37.1%	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,100	1B	$9,900
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.331	0.329	0.259	36.8%	5.6%	26.2%	33.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,900
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.317	0.319	0.159	33.8%	7.8%	23.6%	40.4%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.340	0.333	0.211	34.9%	7.5%	21.6%	49.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
7	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.312	0.300	0.077	18.5%	2.0%	13.5%	43.8%	2B	$2,500	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.332	0.127	31.6%	9.0%	14.3%	46.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Amir Garrett	LEFT	0.096	0.130	0.077	0.0%	0.0%	38.5%	40.0%	P	$7,100	P	$4,800	P	$9,600

Julio Teheran has been easy to figure out this year: play lefties against him, and fade righties against him. Joey Votto is one of the top overall plays on the slate if you can afford him. Scooter Gennett replaced Scott Schebler on Saturday, and if he draws the start and a decent lineup position, he’s in play at FanDuel at minimum salary.

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Miami
			Braden Shipley							Vance Worley
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-110							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.371	0.373	35.5%	8.8%	13.7%	39.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.343	0.306	32.9%	11.5%	16.2%	48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.404	40.2%	12.3%	13.7%	49.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.319	33.7%	6.7%	13.8%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Braden Shipley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	11	5.20	5.27	14.1%	9.2%	42.8%	37.2%	11.1%
	2017	1	8.95	6.75	9.1%	27.3%	57.1%	42.9%	21.4%

Shipley is being called up from Triple-A to make his second start of the year. His first start did not go well, as he walked six batters and struck out just two while allowing three earned runs in four innings of work. Shipley is a low-strikeout pitcher (career 13.7% K rate) who gives up too many home runs (career 1.70 HR/9). That’s not exactly a recipe for DFS success.

Quick Breakdown: Shipley can be safely avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vance Worley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$8,800
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	4	4.79	3.53	15.3%	9.6%	48.1%	31.6%	15.2%
	2017	2	4.68	5.00	10.8%	2.7%	50.0%	48.4%	12.9%

I didn’t think it could get any less appealing than Braden Shipley, but here we are, with Vance Worley taking the hill for the Marlins. Aside from having some amazing glasses, Worley is a pitcher who doesn’t really stand out in any way. He’s making his third start of the year, and in his first two starts, he combined for nine innings, four strikeouts, and five earned runs. He’s a swingman type with essentially zero upside, and the Diamondbacks rank fourth in team wOBA against righties (.343). We should be far more interested in using hitters against Worley than rostering him.

Quick Breakdown: Cool glasses, but that’s where the positives end. Avoid Worley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.277	0.275	0.085	24.4%	10.9%	20.1%	46.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.337	0.313	0.166	36.6%	5.3%	18.9%	54.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.383	0.384	0.209	38.9%	14.4%	21.0%	46.1%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.389	0.376	0.296	40.9%	10.9%	24.3%	42.9%	3B	$3,900	3B	$5,200	3B	$10,000
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.321	0.325	0.220	40.0%	5.3%	24.1%	47.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.346	0.314	0.169	32.3%	6.4%	21.4%	49.1%	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.317	0.295	0.140	32.0%	4.4%	21.0%	49.1%	SS	$2,800	OF/SS	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.255	0.298	0.140	35.0%	8.5%	27.1%	36.5%	C	$2,700	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Braden Shipley	RIGHT	0.158	0.221	0.053	20.0%	0.0%	25.0%	64.3%	P	$6,000	P	$5,300	P	$10,400

Worley has had fairly neutral platoon splits throughout his career, so we can target both lefties and righties against him. With a .331 ISO against right-handed pitching this year, Jake Lamb is becoming an elite play any time he faces a righty. Chris Herrmann has moved up in the order, and if he’s batting fifth again (as he did Saturday), he’s an elite value at FanDuel. While a stack is in play, the ballpark downgrade makes it a bit less appealing. I wish David Peralta would hit the ball in the air more, but he’s got solid numbers against right-handed pitching and deserves consideration, as well.

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann (FD)

Secondary Plays – Chris Herrmann (DK), David Peralta, Reymond Fuentes

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.299	0.246	0.076	19.3%	5.5%	15.9%	56.9%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.332	0.334	0.226	37.3%	9.3%	28.7%	40.0%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.373	0.387	0.196	40.5%	12.0%	20.0%	54.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.335	0.333	0.182	36.6%	7.7%	19.8%	47.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,700
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.356	0.393	0.230	40.1%	12.0%	16.8%	45.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.339	0.310	0.116	30.9%	5.3%	16.7%	50.2%	C	$3,000	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.338	0.342	0.143	29.9%	8.0%	20.1%	36.9%	3B	$2,500	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.330	0.337	0.271	45.5%	5.5%	14.5%	33.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
9	Vance Worley	RIGHT	0.440	0.416	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,500	P	$8,800

While Shipley has allowed a high wOBA to both lefties and righties (career .371 to LHB, .393 to RHB), he’s displayed a serious home run problem to lefties (2.34 HR/9). Christian Yelich and Justin Bour are elite plays, and Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna make sense as low-owned options for tournaments. Derek Dietrich has been hitting low in the order, but he hits righties well and can be used to free up cap space.

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								NY Mets
			Trevor Williams							Tyler Pill
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-116							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.284	26.0%	6.5%	14.1%	41.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	1.077	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.375	27.0%	9.5%	19.1%	47.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.573	0.577	50.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	4	4.64	5.93	16.2%	8.1%	44.1%	24.5%	27.5%

Through five turns as a starter for the Pirates, Trevor Williams has only been rocked once, when he gave up six earned runs in three innings in his first start. His 4.66 SIERA isn’t great, but he has been able to limit hard contact (25.6% hard hit rate). He’s never been able to strike batters out at anything approaching a league average rate, and his .372 career wOBA (granted, in a small 27-inning sample) won’t play against a Mets team full of lefty power bats.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Pill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30

	2017	0	10.04	13.50	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%	66.7%	33.3%

Tyler Pill’s first career start went surprisingly well, as he limited the Brewers to a single earned run in 5 ⅓ strong innings. Don’t get too excited – Pill projects as a low-strikeout pitcher, and until we see more of him, he should be off our radar for DFS purposes.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pill in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.347	0.349	0.145	33.3%	9.2%	14.2%	43.3%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.303	0.279	0.100	27.2%	4.0%	14.6%	42.8%	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.334	0.348	0.199	34.1%	9.2%	16.5%	39.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,800
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.322	0.323	0.138	33.3%	8.8%	27.5%	59.2%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,000	3B	$6,000
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.347	0.174	31.6%	12.5%	16.5%	50.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
6	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.310	0.331	0.156	34.7%	9.1%	21.3%	37.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.324	0.094	28.6%	13.0%	19.3%	52.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.298	0.301	0.102	25.1%	8.8%	14.1%	50.0%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.000	0.065	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	57.1%	100.0%	P	$6,500	P	$5,000	P	$9,900

Despite a favorable matchup against Tyler Pill, I only have mild interest in the Pittsburgh bats. Adam Frazier should bat leadoff, and he’s an affordable way to fill a difficult second base position. There are several first basemen that I would prioritize over Josh Bell today, but he does have power against righties. There is some merit in a stack simply because of the favorable pitching matchup, but overall, this is not a particularly exciting offense to target.

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.373	0.368	0.259	44.2%	12.0%	24.3%	36.2%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,900
2	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.278	0.269	0.124	26.1%	7.6%	16.8%	37.5%	3B	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.375	0.372	0.299	42.3%	9.3%	20.4%	35.1%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.329	0.346	0.172	34.1%	8.7%	18.7%	37.4%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.353	0.374	0.224	37.1%	13.1%	21.9%	32.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$8,800
6	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.338	0.323	0.193	35.1%	6.9%	17.9%	36.7%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
7	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.337	0.337	0.229	36.7%	12.4%	19.7%	34.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
8	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.282	0.300	0.114	33.3%	6.1%	17.0%	49.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Tyler Pill	RIGHT								P	$5,500	P	$5,500	P	$10,800

Trevor Williams has been able to limit the damage, but that could end on Sunday. He allows 43.0% fly balls to lefties and only strikes them out at a 14.0% rate, which means Mets lefties like Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, and Lucas Duda could tee off. A full stack is certainly in play, but it’s worth noting that the Pirates have three solid-to-good lefties in the bullpen (Wade LeBlanc, Felipe Rivero, Tony Watson), so it’s possible the lefties only get a couple at-bats with the platoon advantage.

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda (FD)

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Lucas Duda (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Detroit
			David Holmberg							Justin Verlander
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-200							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.063	0.159	18.2%	0.0%	21.4%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.279	27.3%	8.8%	30.0%	29.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.167	0.292	25.0%	9.5%	14.3%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.304	33.0%	5.9%	23.2%	35.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Holmberg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,300	Salary:		$8,400
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30

	2017	0	4.02	0.87	17.1%	5.7%	48.1%	22.2%	37.0%

David Holmberg has come out of the White Sox bullpen and will be making his second start of the year. In his first start, he made it just four innings against the Red Sox, giving up three earned runs and striking out only two batters. For his career, he’s posted a 5.62 SIERA and a minuscule 11.9% strikeout rate to go with a 6.3% swinging strike rate. He has a high 45.5% fly ball rate and .389 wOBA to right-handed batters, and the Tigers can roll out an almost entirely right-handed lineup. This won’t end well.

Quick Breakdown: There’s a decent chance that Holmberg winds up with negative points against a dangerous right-handed-heavy Tigers team.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,600
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	33.7%	28.9%	19.7%
	2017	10	4.72	4.87	21.7%	10.9%	29.2%	34.8%	15.7%

The 2017 version of Justin Verlander is a far cry from the 2016 version. This year, Verlander’s SIERA is up (4.65 this year, 3.42 last year), his strikeouts are way down (21.4% this year, 28.1% last year), and he’s being hit much harder (28.9% hard hits last year, 34.2% this year). He’s still a pitcher who gets a lot of fly balls, and that can work in his home park. In fact, it has, as he has a 1.61 ERA and .223 wOBA at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park this year (compared to a 6.53 ERA and .372 wOBA on the road). And it is worth noting that, in his first start of the year, he fanned 10 White Sox batters. Eight of his nine home runs this year have come on the road, as well. The matchup is pristine, as the White Sox rank 29th in wOBA, 22nd in ISO, and 28th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Verlander is still a bit overpriced for his 2017 production, but even so, as a massive home favorite, he’s arguably the best SP2 play on the board. He also makes sense in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander clearly benefits from his home ballpark, and he’s in a fantastic matchup. He’s one of the best SP2 options available and an elite tournament play.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.346	0.313	0.231	26.6%	3.4%	17.9%	53.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
2	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.329	0.330	0.142	29.2%	7.9%	9.9%	45.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.344	0.344	0.168	31.6%	5.9%	17.6%	45.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.314	0.318	0.218	30.9%	9.8%	22.9%	38.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
5	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.322	0.326	0.164	30.2%	6.0%	24.5%	53.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.354	0.315	0.289	36.6%	4.9%	44.4%	26.8%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.299	0.275	0.154	29.8%	3.0%	26.2%	51.2%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
8	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.291	0.303	0.028	14.4%	12.0%	12.7%	41.9%	C	$2,300	C	$2,300	C	$4,500
9	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.277	0.276	0.131	20.9%	3.7%	25.3%	39.7%	2B	$3,300	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700

Justin Verlander has long been a reverse splits pitcher, so if we’re attacking him, we should do it with right-handed bats. Unfortunately, the White Sox have little in the way of right-handed bats (which is part of the reason why Verlander is growing on me as an elite play). Jose Abreu has been below league average against righties this year (92 wRC+), and Todd Frazier has long been better against ground ball pitchers (.690 career OPS vs. ground ball pitchers, .903 vs. fly ball pitchers), making them both easy fades.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.285	0.315	0.000	20.0%	17.4%	17.4%	50.0%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.284	0.347	0.211	39.1%	5.5%	27.0%	32.7%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.390	0.452	0.194	43.4%	15.8%	20.2%	38.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.344	0.321	0.149	34.9%	8.1%	14.7%	40.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.378	0.408	0.226	45.8%	9.4%	21.6%	42.7%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,000
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.329	0.343	0.195	38.2%	9.0%	27.8%	38.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
7	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.434	0.447	0.385	36.4%	7.1%	14.3%	54.5%	C	$2,400	1B/C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.263	0.269	0.134	36.5%	2.0%	23.0%	35.1%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.307	0.302	0.148	30.1%	5.3%	7.6%	39.0%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600

While I have little interest in White Sox bats, I’ll be fitting in as many Tigers bats as I can against David Holmberg. A full stack will be chalky, but it’s certainly in play; just keep in mind that Comerica Park’s spacious outfield could lead to a bunch of caught fly balls rather than home runs. If Nick Castellanos bats second (as he did when the Tigers faced lefty Derek Holland on Friday), he’s an excellent source of value, as is John Hicks (who homered on Saturday) and Dixon Machado (who could bat leadoff). Justin Upton hits too far down in the order to be considered elite for cash games, but he’s solid against left-handed pitching. Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez are elite plays at their respective positions.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 4th

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Stackability Rating System:

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brandon Phillips, Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb, Chris Herrmann (FD)

Secondary Plays – Chris Herrmann (DK), David Peralta, Reymond Fuentes

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda (FD)

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Lucas Duda (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Dixon Machado (FD), Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Dixon Machado (DK), John Hicks, Victor Martinez

Stackability – GREEN

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