MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 10th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-11 04:13:26

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Texas at Washington – 12:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Washington
			Martin Perez							Gio Gonzalez
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-190							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.299	23.8%	9.5%	20.5%	54.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.314	26.9%	7.6%	19.6%	56.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.366	33.4%	8.8%	11.5%	50.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.320	33.8%	9.2%	22.5%	44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	33	5.11	4.39	12.1%	8.9%	53.2%	30.7%	15.9%
	2017	12	4.93	4.64	16.3%	9.2%	43.5%	35.5%	15.0%

Martin Perez has a really difficult matchup today against a high-powered Nationals offense. He has a 4.64 ERA this season along with a 16.3% K rate. The fact that his SIERA of 4.93 almost matches his ERA tells us that he’s pitched closed to his true skill level this season. The Nationals own a .337 wOBA and 106 wRC+ against LH pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup is too difficult to consider pitching Martin Perez. He has a .342 wOBA against RH hitters and the Nationals have plenty of RH batters that hit LH pitching well. There’s also not nearly enough strikeout upside here.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	12	4.80	3.03	20.7%	11.8%	45.6%	31.3%	20.9%

Gio Gonzalez is a rather mediocre option today with a 20.7% K rate and 3.03 ERA through 12 starts. The main concern with Gonzalez is that he walks too many batters with an 11.8% BB rate. Gonzalez is otherwise a pretty average pitcher with a .276 wOBA against LH hitters and .328 wOBA against RH hitters. This Rangers offense will strikeout against LH pitching with a 26.2% K rate. They also own a .291 wOBA and 76 wRC+ both of which are below average.

Quick Breakdown: If you decide to play the all day slate, Gio Gonzalez is an option. The Rangers elevated strikeout rate against LH pitching should help Gonzalez and he’s also a pretty large favorite with a-190 line. That said, there are a couple of better matchups n the same price range on the alld ay slate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

If we decide to target Gio Gonzalez we mainly want to do it with RH batters as he owns a .328 wOBA over the past two seasons. The Rangers best hitter against LH pitching is Shin-soo Choo. He owns a .370 wOBA against LH pitching. If you want to dig a little deeper than that Elvis Andrus isn’t far behind with a .360 wOBA against LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.370	0.368	0.193	32.3%	13.6%	18.4%	58.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.360	0.315	0.159	29.4%	7.2%	13.3%	49.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,300
3	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.327	0.363	0.219	34.9%	8.4%	19.1%	38.8%	C	$2,700	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.255	0.261	0.040	20.7%	4.9%	22.1%	61.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
5	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.283	0.312	0.134	37.7%	3.9%	21.1%	43.6%	2B	$3,300	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
6	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.320	0.314	0.152	34.9%	6.8%	25.5%	48.1%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,500	IF/OF	$4,800
7	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.395	0.363	0.310	46.7%	14.3%	24.5%	36.7%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.268	0.238	0.075	24.7%	9.2%	26.1%	48.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
9	Martin Perez	LEFT								P	$6,300	P	$5,100	P	$10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Washington

The Nationals have one of the highest projected run totals on the day. Martin Perez owns a .342 wOBA against RH hitting. He also strikes out RH hitters just 11.5% of the time. We can fire up Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy with confidence here. They both hit LH pitching well. Obviously, Bryce Harper is in play as well along with Brian Goodwin as a punt play if he’s in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.266	0.263	0.065	32.5%	2.7%	21.8%	50.0%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,200
2	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.341	0.298	0.231	36.0%	14.3%	24.6%	46.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,000	LF	$3,900
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.332	0.303	0.188	31.6%	11.9%	28.2%	44.8%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.363	0.391	0.287	40.5%	9.5%	15.0%	51.4%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,400
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.371	0.221	33.7%	5.4%	12.7%	37.7%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.408	0.381	0.215	36.6%	18.1%	14.5%	33.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.317	0.310	0.174	38.0%	5.7%	36.1%	48.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
8	Jose Lobaton	SWITCH	0.183	0.239	0.121	16.1%	5.6%	8.3%	65.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	C	$4,100
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.000	0.082	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	P	$8,600	P	$8,000	P	$15,600

Elite Plays – Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper and Ben Goodwin

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:00 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
NY Mets								Atlanta
			Robert Gsellman						Sean Newcomb
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-103						10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.289	32.5%	9.0%	25.5%	51.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.358	0.327	30.0%	6.6%	14.7%	56.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robert Gsellman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	7	3.76	2.42	22.7%	8.1%	54.2%	28.4%	18.1%
	2017	10	4.28	5.53	16.9%	7.3%	55.0%	32.6%	22.3%

Robert Gsellman is essentially a ground ball pitcher with a 55% ground ball rate. He has a 5.53 ERA and 16.9% K rate this season. He’s really struggled against RH hitters with a .358 wOBA compared to .276 against LH hitters. The Braves are a below average offense against RH pitching but they only have a 19.3% K rate. That makes Gsellman a tough sell. He’s already faced this same Braves offense twice this year allowing five earned runs each time.

Quick Breakdown: With this being the third time the Braves will face Gsellman I’m apprehensive to fire up up in this matchup. He hasn’t had much success in the previous two outings.

	Stats	SIERA	ERA	BB%	GB%	SC%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:	$4,600	Salary:	$4,500	Salary:	$9,000
	Salary Rank:	30 of 30	Salary Rank:	27 of 30	Salary Rank:	25 of 30

Sean Newcomb will make his first ever major league start today. Newcomb has pitched three years in the minor leagues. He’s shown excellent ability with a 29.3% K rate this season in AAA. He’s also shown decent ability to limit home runs with a HR/FB rate under 7% every year in the minors except his rookie season. The Mets feature a LH heavy lineup. On the season they are slightly below average against Lh pitching with a .325 wOBA and 103 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: You could probably do a lot worse than Sean Newcomb today as an SP2. He’s a relative unknown here but has shown good strikeout ability and limited home runs in the minor leagues. Newcomb is only available on the very early or all day slates though.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

When a player makes his first career start it usually either goes really well or really bad. In general, I side with Newcomb not being terrible but the Mets do have a couple of hitters that hit LH pitching well. Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores and Neil Walker are worth a look here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.253	0.259	0.137	32.7%	9.5%	29.8%	38.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,600
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.341	0.323	0.130	38.0%	6.9%	16.9%	47.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.462	0.469	0.350	49.4%	17.2%	18.0%	35.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.268	0.300	0.161	33.7%	4.9%	21.8%	35.2%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.383	0.346	0.231	35.8%	9.3%	14.8%	32.0%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.450	0.388	0.346	30.7%	5.9%	9.6%	27.2%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.271	0.324	0.255	30.6%	6.0%	22.0%	47.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
8	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.349	0.315	0.154	42.4%	11.9%	32.2%	36.4%	C	$3,000	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
9	Robert Gsellman	RIGHT	0.000	0.183	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	20.0%	50.0%	P	$7,400	P	$7,600	P	$15,200

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Neil Waker and Wilmer Flores

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Atlanta

Robert Gsellman owns a .358 wOBA and 14.7% K rate against RH hitting. Ideally, that means we ant to target Braves Rh hitters here. The best options are Tyler Flowers and Brandon Phillips. Flowers owns a .367 wOBA against RH pitching. You could certainly target Nick Markakis though as he will lead off and owns a .357 wOBA against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.319	0.297	0.107	26.6%	8.5%	13.4%	42.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.328	0.309	0.123	29.0%	3.4%	12.1%	46.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
3	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.337	0.359	0.135	33.7%	11.4%	16.4%	42.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.337	0.352	0.216	36.7%	4.9%	23.6%	40.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,100
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.341	0.339	0.228	37.7%	7.7%	25.9%	33.3%	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,200	1B	$8,100
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.367	0.349	0.142	41.9%	8.2%	25.3%	42.4%	C	$2,900	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.262	0.315	0.100	31.8%	9.0%	23.9%	63.6%	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,600
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.272	0.298	0.098	31.3%	9.9%	24.8%	49.0%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
9	Sean Newcomb	LEFT								P	$4,600	P	$4,500	P	$9,000

Elite Plays – Brandon Phillips and Tyler Flowers

Secondary Plays – Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Chicago Cubs
			Jeff Hoffman							Eddie Butler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-115
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.330	31.0%	9.7%	14.0%	43.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.391	41.0%	12.1%	16.3%	40.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.316	38.6%	7.3%	29.1%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.371	0.335	36.4%	6.5%	16.5%	48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeff Hoffman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	6	5.22	4.88	15.0%	11.6%	50.0%	34.3%	20.4%
	2017	3	2.64	2.61	33.8%	2.6%	25.0%	34.7%	20.4%

Jeff Hoffman has pitched well in three starts this season. He has a 33.8% K rate and 2.6% BB rate. That excellent K rate is backed by a 13.4% SwStr rate but that’s pretty much where the good news ends. In his career Hoffman owns a .402 wOBA vs LH and .515 wOBA vs. RH batters. He especially struggles against LH hitters as he’s striking them out just 14% of the time in his career.

Quick Breakdown: The Cubs have certainly underachieved this season but they still own a .306 wOBA against RH pitching. Assuming that Hoffman’s K rate regresses to his career average the matchup here is enough to make me look elsewhere for a pitcher.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eddie Butler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	9	4.53	7.17	16.0%	7.2%	45.8%	38.7%	13.1%
	2017	5	5.41	3.75	17.5%	13.6%	44.3%	36.6%	22.5%

Eddie Butler has never been a high strikeout arm. He checks in with 17.5% K rate this season. Really, the only number that looks impressive is his 3.75 ERA. Over the past two seasons he’s allowing hard contact at 41% to LH batters and 36.4% to RH batters. The walks are also way too high at 13.4% this season.

Quick Breakdown: Butler is easily avoided in a pretty difficult matchup. The Rockies own an 83 wRC+ and .327 wOBA against RH pitching. Those numbers are close to league average yet Butler is a below average pitcher

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The main option that stands out here is Charlie Blackmon. Butler is allowing 41% hard contact to LH hitters over the past two seasons. Blackmon’s stats are somewhat skewed because he pays his home games at Coors Field but he owns a own .413 wOBA against RH pitching. After Blackmon, there are a couple of secondary options in Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds but I’m not overly excited as Butler does own a 48.9% ground ball rate against RH hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.413	0.371	0.284	38.7%	7.2%	18.3%	31.5%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.358	0.369	0.113	31.8%	9.2%	12.6%	53.4%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.375	0.345	0.268	37.3%	8.3%	14.7%	35.7%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.356	0.346	0.188	33.6%	10.5%	17.8%	43.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.394	0.332	0.238	30.8%	9.3%	25.3%	39.7%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.317	0.297	0.149	30.9%	6.0%	25.5%	56.6%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.342	0.323	0.245	36.6%	8.6%	31.6%	29.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.324	0.291	0.124	21.4%	11.5%	20.5%	43.8%	C	$2,700	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Jeff Hoffman	RIGHT	0.098	0.142	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	18.2%	85.7%	P	$6,400	P	$6,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

In general, the Cubs don’t grade out well against Hoffman because of his inflated K rate this season. We can definitely target him with LH hitters though as he owns a 14.1% K rate over the past two seasons. Ian Happ is priced fairly and owns a .370 wOBA against RH pitching. Kris Bryant also hits RH pitching well with a .376 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.370	0.355	0.311	33.3%	12.7%	31.0%	46.2%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.376	0.352	0.241	36.9%	9.9%	22.3%	30.9%	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.387	0.380	0.249	36.7%	12.4%	15.5%	37.0%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.351	0.369	0.176	33.5%	15.6%	11.7%	46.6%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.296	0.314	0.115	27.1%	8.3%	13.4%	46.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.334	0.307	0.187	32.3%	8.9%	27.9%	54.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.302	0.270	0.161	28.6%	1.6%	25.7%	45.5%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Eddie Butler	RIGHT	0.083	0.127	0.000	11.1%	4.2%	20.8%	90.0%	P	$7,100	P	$5,400	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.298	0.354	0.222	36.5%	12.0%	29.5%	42.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Miami at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Pittsburgh
			Dan Straily							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-108							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.307	29.8%	12.2%	21.0%	34.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.303	27.4%	6.7%	13.3%	40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.317	35.7%	6.6%	22.2%	31.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.350	29.0%	7.8%	18.0%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$17,700
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	12	4.09	3.59	25.0%	9.1%	35.8%	35.8%	20.7%

Dan Straily owns a 3.59 ERA and 25.7% K rate this season. Those numbers appear to have factored into his price across the DFS industry. Straily doesn’t generate near enough ground balls at 35.8% and his walks are too high at 9.1%. He’s struggled with RH hitters the past two seasons with a .323 wOBA compared to .276 against LH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: The Pirates are a slightly below average offense against RH pitching with a .309 wOBA and 91 wRC+. They don’t strikeout often though with an 18.1% k rate which ranks 29th. Even in this matchup its tough to pay Straily’s price. He’s realistically a low end SP2 but I’m unlikely to roster him anywhere.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	6	4.84	4.57	15.0%	7.0%	41.5%	27.3%	25.9%

Trevor Williams has a similar outlook to Straily. He’s posted a 4.57 ERA and 15% K rate through six starts this season. He owns a .361 wOBA vs. LH hitting and .332 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. We can target this Marlins offense with RH pitching as they own a 20.2% K rate, .317 wOBA and 95 wRC+ but Williams probably isn’t the right guy to try it with.

Quick Breakdown: What hurts Hoffman the most here is that his strikeout upside is low. His 15% K rate this season isn’t the kind of number we would typically pay for. He’s a ow end SP2 based on the matchup but there are better ways to go today.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are generally a better offense against LH pitching.We aren’t getting any kind of discount here against the RH Trevor Williams. He owns a .361 wOBA against LH hitting and .322 against RH hitting. Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon are the main names that stand out here but they are both secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.301	0.244	0.077	18.8%	5.7%	15.5%	57.5%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.336	0.336	0.224	37.3%	9.6%	28.4%	40.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,700
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.372	0.385	0.192	39.7%	12.2%	19.4%	54.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.339	0.335	0.189	36.3%	7.6%	19.9%	46.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,800
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.337	0.308	0.119	30.5%	5.4%	16.8%	50.2%	C	$3,300	C	$3,900	C	$7,600
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.335	0.336	0.148	29.7%	7.9%	19.6%	37.2%	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,900	3B	$5,600
7	Tyler Moore	RIGHT	0.325	0.317	0.281	39.1%	2.9%	29.4%	39.1%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,400
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.313	0.317	0.188	44.8%	3.4%	20.5%	44.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.041	0.069	0.000	13.3%	1.4%	57.5%	84.6%	P	$8,500	P	$9,100	P	$17,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

Dan Straily is best attacked with RH hitting as he owns a .323 wOBA compared to .276 against LH hitting. The Pirates don’t necessarily have a bunch of ways to take advantage but they do have a healthy projected run total. Mainly, we want to target RH hitters here. Josh Harrison stands out as the best option as he owns a .307 wOBA versus Rh pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.334	0.339	0.136	32.7%	9.1%	14.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.307	0.283	0.108	28.7%	3.9%	14.7%	42.4%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,700	2B	$9,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.332	0.344	0.191	33.5%	9.2%	16.6%	39.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.319	0.323	0.138	32.5%	8.7%	27.0%	58.3%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,800
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.349	0.186	32.7%	12.4%	17.8%	51.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.312	0.331	0.155	35.1%	9.4%	21.6%	37.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,200
7	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.367	0.305	0.227	38.9%	12.0%	16.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.304	0.298	0.111	24.9%	8.3%	14.5%	49.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.000	0.061	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	54.5%	100.0%	P	$6,600	P	$5,000	P	$10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Oakland at Tampa Bay – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Tampa Bay
			Sonny Gray							Erasmo Ramirez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -108							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.327	30.4%	7.3%	19.0%	53.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.349	34.8%	9.7%	15.7%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.321	36.6%	8.7%	19.1%	56.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.292	26.7%	3.9%	18.6%	56.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	7	3.72	4.57	21.6%	7.6%	59.3%	33.1%	14.9%

The Athletics and Rays play a doubleheader today. The only game of the two that is included anywhere is the earlier game that starts at 2:10 PM. Sonny Gray owns a 4.57 ERA through seven starts this year. Gray has been a ground ball pitcher most of his career including this year where he owns a 59.3% ground ball rate. Today, he’ll take on a Rays offense that is second in K rate against RH pitching at 25.5%. The matchup slightly elevates Gray’s outlook.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is in play today because of his ground ball ability and he Rays strikeout tendency. Assuming the Gray can keep the ball down he could cruise through this lineup and post a decent score.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Erasmo Ramirez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	1	4.10	3.77	16.7%	6.9%	52.5%	26.3%	19.3%
	2017	5	3.75	4.09	19.2%	4.7%	52.7%	37.4%	15.3%

Erasmo Ramirez has an outlook similar to Sonny Gray. Ramirez has excellent control with a 4.77% BB rate this season. The Athletics strikeout plenty against RH pitching at 24.8%. Ramirez isn’t a high strikeout arm at 19.2% but that’s probably enough to get the job done here. He’s generating ground balls at 52.7%. The main issue with Ramirez is that he’s allowing more hard contact than we would like to see at 37.4%.

Quick Breakdown: Ramirez is in play as an SP2 today. He has similar a similar outlook to Sonny Gray but is priced quite a bit cheaper. His ground ball ability and excellent control should help him post the kind of score that we need today.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

There aren’t a lot of Athletics that stand out today against Ramirez. He does own a .335 wOBA against LH hitters and .305 against RH hitters though. Rajaj Davis only has a .293 wOBA against RH pitching but does walk quite often at 26%. If he gets on he’ll almost definitely steal a base or two. Yonder Alonso owns a .337 wOBA against RH pitching. He’s fully embraced the Athletics home run or bust mentality as he owns a 16% ground ball rate against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.293	0.264	0.135	26.0%	6.1%	19.7%	47.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.348	0.370	0.216	36.8%	18.1%	22.7%	41.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.324	0.324	0.131	32.3%	8.2%	16.6%	37.2%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.349	0.369	0.290	40.6%	7.1%	28.7%	42.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.337	0.371	0.173	35.7%	9.9%	16.0%	39.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,700
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.336	0.332	0.206	33.1%	4.3%	24.5%	40.2%	1B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,400
7	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.310	0.318	0.159	27.1%	7.1%	15.7%	30.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
8	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.333	0.373	0.289	35.2%	7.1%	27.1%	38.9%	2B	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
9	Jaycob Brugman	LEFT								OF	$2,200			CF	$4,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rajaj Davis and Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Tampa Bay

After posting a 52.6 last night on FanDuel, Mallex Smith should be a chalk play again today if he leads off. Smith hit a home run and stole three bases last night. Stephen Vogt has allowed 35 stolen bases this year which is the most in the league. Smith owns a .339 wOBA against RH pitching. Smith is an elite play on FanDuel at minimum price and playable elsewhere across the industry if he leads off. Outside of Smith, we’ll want to attack Sonny Gray with Rays LH hitters in Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison and Colby Rasmus.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.340	0.317	0.196	31.3%	9.8%	31.4%	41.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
2	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.356	0.322	0.274	33.0%	6.1%	21.9%	34.6%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.352	0.352	0.238	36.2%	6.3%	19.8%	35.1%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.336	0.364	0.231	38.8%	11.0%	22.7%	40.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
5	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.312	0.299	0.198	44.6%	4.3%	32.0%	42.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
6	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.285	0.271	0.108	30.8%	10.6%	27.1%	46.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900	SS	$4,800
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.243	0.269	0.137	31.4%	7.0%	31.6%	33.6%	C	$2,800	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
8	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.289	0.247	0.173	23.3%	4.7%	24.6%	51.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400
9	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.268	0.143	19.5%	9.8%	19.7%	60.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison and Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Detroit at Boston – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Boston
			Justin Verlander							Chris Sale
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-200							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.280	27.0%	8.9%	29.7%	30.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.257	0.242	24.8%	2.8%	30.7%	53.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.309	34.1%	6.0%	23.1%	36.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.289	32.6%	5.4%	28.2%	38.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	33.7%	28.9%	19.7%
	2017	12	4.74	4.63	21.4%	10.7%	33.2%	36.1%	15.4%

A lot has been written about Justin Verlander this season. His K rate has dipped to 21.4% and his ERA is up to 4.63. His walk rate is also up to 10.7%. Today, he’ll take on a Red Sox team that owns an 18.7% K rate against RH pitching. With Verlander still priced like an ace this is a tough sell. He could return to form and see his strikeouts increase to closer to last year’s 28.4% number. He could also continue to be this year’s version

Quick Breakdown: Ultimately, the price and matchup here are enough to push me off Verlander. He’s unlikely to win pitching opposite Chris Sale and the Red Sox have a couple of bats that hit RH pitching well.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$12,800	Salary:		$24,900
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	32	3.43	3.34	25.7%	5.0%	41.2%	31.7%	17.0%
	2017	12	2.43	2.89	36.4%	5.2%	39.0%	30.7%	15.9%

Chris Sale is the most expensive pitcher today. He’s having an incredible season with a 36.4% K rate and 2.89 ERA. The Tigers are close to lleague average at 20.2% K rate against LH pitching. Based on his price, you can make an argument against using Chris Sale today. IIn terms of pure talent though he’s easily the best pitcher going today.

Quick Breakdown: A matchup with the Tigers is really the only argument against Sale today. His 36.4% K rate will probably regress but he’s made more of an effort to strike batters out this season than pitch to contact. Sale is cash game playable in this spot.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Chris Sale has a .257 wOBA against LH hitters and .274 against RH hitters. While several Tigers batters hit LH pitching well, Chris Sale isn’t your average LH pitcher. There’s no reason to use Tigers bats against Sale on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.238	0.282	0.000	18.2%	12.9%	16.1%	47.6%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.278	0.353	0.203	41.4%	6.4%	25.7%	31.9%	3B	$2,000	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.392	0.459	0.197	44.4%	15.6%	20.3%	39.3%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.415	0.436	0.295	48.5%	8.8%	21.1%	39.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,500
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.324	0.348	0.190	38.5%	9.1%	27.4%	37.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$5,200	LF	$10,200
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.379	0.399	0.311	49.0%	9.7%	29.7%	32.7%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.286	0.302	0.165	39.2%	1.9%	22.6%	35.4%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
8	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.164	0.200	0.139	42.9%	0.0%	59.5%	21.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.309	0.304	0.143	30.3%	5.6%	7.3%	38.1%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston

The Red Sox are also in a tough spot against Justin Verlander. He owns a .277 wOBA against LH and .296 against RH hitters over the past two season. You can make a case for a couple of Red Sox though based on Verlander’s elevated hard contact rate this season. Both Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi hit Rh pitching well. Neither quite makes the cut though as a secondary play though given the other hitting options available elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.376	0.334	0.203	34.0%	8.1%	10.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.351	0.332	0.198	36.7%	8.7%	15.3%	35.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,300
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.346	0.295	0.142	29.5%	7.4%	16.7%	47.7%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.316	0.359	0.194	38.7%	8.8%	23.0%	39.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.345	0.344	0.184	37.3%	9.6%	19.7%	48.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.355	0.360	0.235	37.8%	11.1%	21.6%	45.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
7	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.282	0.225	0.047	26.3%	9.4%	30.2%	60.7%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,800	2B	$5,600
8	Pablo Sandoval	SWITCH	0.289	0.333	0.197	43.1%	7.7%	26.9%	43.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.271	0.255	0.076	29.8%	3.4%	22.8%	57.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$6,000