MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-12 01:58:15

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Diego at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Chicago Cubs
			Colin Rea					Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -220					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.268	3	18.9%	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.341	13	21.1%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.364	3	18.1%	7.9%	SP vs. Right	0.251	5	23.1%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Colin Rea
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$7,100
				FPPG:		22.3	FPPG:		10.7
				Pitcher Rating:		38.6	Pitcher Rank:		21
2016	6	4.36	17.7%	6.8%	9.2%	49.1%	26.9%	25.7%	13
2015	6	4.13	19.6%	5.3%	8.3%	46.2%	30.1%	36.8%	30

Rea hasn’t been in the best form this season, posting a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.7%. I have been avoiding pitchers against the Cubs all season and that trend will continue today. This is the first game of a double-header, so make sure to keep that in mind when making lineups. Rea checks in as one of the largest underdogs on the board and he is facing a very talented Cubs’ offense on the road.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Kyle Hendricks
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,000
				FPPG:		30.0	FPPG:		16.3
				Pitcher Rating:		87.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
2016	5	3.21	20.2%	7.1%	5.3%	60.5%	21.0%	25.0%	28
2015	32	3.37	22.6%	8.1%	5.8%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%	25

The only knock on Hendricks is the fact that he typically doesn’t pitch way deep into games. The Cubs will pull him early if they need a pinch-hitter to potentially knock in a run. Other than that, Hendricks stands out as a terrific play against the Padres. Not only do they struggle against right-handed pitching, but they also have the third highest strikeout rate. Hendricks is fairly cheap and he should be able to pick up a win at home.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Padres Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.147 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.73 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.81 (30 of 30)

The Padres come into today’s game with the lowest team total on the board. They are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO over the last two seasons. Kyle Hendricks produces an elite ground ball rate, which really limits the damage against him. The Padres can be avoided in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.281	0.080	0.394	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.328	0.192	0.282	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.318	0.180	0.325	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400
4	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.392	0.227	0.436	1B	$2,400	1B/3B	$2,800
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.319	0.151	0.306	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100
6	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.268	0.097	0.274	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,500
7	Christian Bethancourt	RIGHT	0.245	0.146	0.415	C	$2,300	C	$2,600
8	Adam Rosales	RIGHT	0.281	0.181	0.182	2B	$2,000	3B	$2,000
9	Colin Rea	RIGHT	0.150	0.000	0.126	P	$5,700	P	$7,100
	Team Averages	—	0.287	0.139	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.19 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (10 of 30)

The Cubs don’t have the highest team total on the board, but they currently average more runs per game than any team in baseball. They draw a favorable matchup against Colin Rea, who has been hittable in his short stint in the majors. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here even though the wind is slightly blowing in from right field.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.339	0.178	0.380	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,400
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.149	0.191	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.383	0.211	0.405	3B	$4,600	3B/OF	$4,900
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.401	0.284	0.511	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,500
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.334	0.166	0.491	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,100
6	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.292	0.134	0.417	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,000
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.326	0.147	0.365	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,700
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.241	0.113	0.285	C	$2,300	C	$2,800
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.056	0.000	0.361	P	$8,500	P	$9,000
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.154	0.378	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore at Minnesota – 1:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Minnesota
			Tyler Wilson					Phil Hughes
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -105					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.290	0	5.9%	8.1%	SP vs. Left	0.331	14	13.5%	3.3%
SP vs. Right	0.329	3	16.2%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.360	19	15.9%	2.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Tyler Wilson
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,800
				FPPG:		16.3	FPPG:		8.5
				Pitcher Rating:		34.2	Pitcher Rank:		25
2016	3	4.21	13.3%	6.4%	6.1%	52.6%	25.6%	23.1%	23
2015	5	5.08	8.7%	5.2%	7.4%	52.0%	30.1%	31.5%	22

Wilson is making his fourth start of the season. He hasn’t shown much in the way of strikeout upside so far in the majors, posting a 13.3% strikeout rate this year and a 8.7% strikeout rate in 2015. The matchup against the Twins isn’t terrible, but unfortunately his low strikeout rate doesn’t make up for the few runs that he is likely going to give up. He is listed as a small underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Phil Hughes
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,800
				FPPG:		18.7	FPPG:		8.9
				Pitcher Rating:		36.2	Pitcher Rank:		22
2016	6	4.39	15.7%	5.8%	5.7%	43.1%	34.9%	34.6%	19
2015	25	4.39	14.4%	5.5%	2.5%	35.3%	40.4%	31.2%	25

Hughes hasn’t been on my radar yet this season and that is not going to change today against the Orioles. Hughes is a fly ball pitcher that struggles to keep the ball in the park. That doesn’t bode well against an Orioles’ offense that hits a ton of home runs. Both of these pitchers are easy fades in what is expecting to be a high scoring game.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Orioles Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (8 of 30)

Since the start of last season, the Orioles are ranked third in team wOBA and second team ISO against right-handed pitching. They have the eighth highest team total of the 30 teams in action on Wednesday. As I mentioned above, Phil Hughes is a fly ball pitcher. He has allowed 33 home runs in his last 31 starts. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.302	0.101	0.357	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.397	0.258	0.439	3B	$4,300	3B/SS	$5,000
3	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.405	0.344	0.265	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,400
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.330	0.192	0.225	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,600
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.333	0.167	0.388	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.312	0.136	0.200	C	$2,100	C	$3,000
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.337	0.234	0.421	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,200
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.361	0.250	0.368	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.280	0.147	0.278	2B	$2,200	3B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.203	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

Twins Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (27 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.41 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (6 of 30)

The Twins draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Wilson, who is still an inexperienced pitcher at the major league level. Wilson is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Twins are an interesting offense to stack in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.322	0.112	0.289	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,800
2	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.381	0.135	0.381	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$4,000
3	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.313	0.197	0.351	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,500
4	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.310	0.190	0.151	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,700
5	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.368	0.225	0.265	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100
6	Byung Ho Park	RIGHT	0.389	0.329	0.445	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200
7	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.340	0.202	0.354	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.261	0.075	0.268	C	$2,100	C	$2,600
9	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.233	0.081	0.290	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.172	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Byung Ho Park

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox at Texas – 2:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago White Sox					Texas
			Mat Latos					Cole Hamels
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX -132					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.334	11	16.9%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.294	4	22.7%	9.3%
SP vs. Right	0.296	6	20.4%	6.6%	SP vs. Right	0.295	22	24.8%	7.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Mat Latos
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,400
				FPPG:		31.7	FPPG:		15.0
				Pitcher Rating:		34.3	Pitcher Rank:		24
2016	6	4.90	13.4%	6.0%	7.0%	43.6%	40.0%	27.7%	6
2015	21	3.88	20.2%	9.9%	6.5%	43.9%	31.9%	33.0%	8

Latos has not pitched well this season, posting a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.4%. He has given up a fly ball rate of 40%, which could be a big problem against the Rangers in Arlington. Latos is listed as a large underdog on the road and the Rangers are currently projected to score the fifth most runs on the board. Latos should be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Cole Hamels
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$9,400
				FPPG:		39.0	FPPG:		20.0
				Pitcher Rating:		68.8	Pitcher Rank:		12
2016	6	3.98	23.8%	13.3%	11.3%	51.1%	27.2%	18.1%	12
2015	32	3.45	24.4%	13.3%	7.1%	47.7%	31.4%	27.0%	9

Hamels is coming off of a very nice start against the Tigers, striking out nine batters in seven shutout innings. He has quietly had a good start to the year, posting a 3.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8% and a swinging strike rate of 13.3%. He draws an intriguing matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked 29th in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Hamels is worth a look in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

White Sox Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.282 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.110 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (9 of 30)

The White Sox may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but they come into today’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. Cole Hamels has pitched well in his first six starts though, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. I like Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier as GPP plays here, but both are a bit too expensive to use in cash games considering their matchup.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.308	0.069	0.388	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,200
2	Jimmy Rollins	SWITCH	0.369	0.158	0.206	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.281	0.117	0.400	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,100
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.364	0.319	0.336	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,400
5	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.265	0.101	0.273	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.362	0.189	0.396	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.327	0.128	0.541	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
8	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.324	0.231	0.344	C	$2,700	C	$3,300
9	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.318	0.144	0.378	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.162	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

Texas

Rangers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.45 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.69 (5 of 30)

The Rangers are one of the top offenses to target outside of the two teams in Coors Field. They are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching and they draw a favorable matchup against Mat Latos, who has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. All of the lefties in the Rangers are worth a look, especially in the early-only slate.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.339	0.221	0.492	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,700
2	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.411	0.226	0.298	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400
3	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.309	0.140	0.318	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,100
4	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.361	0.148	0.209	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,900
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.283	0.135	0.377	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.366	0.224	0.339	OF	$3,300	1B	$3,900
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.277	0.079	0.299	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,500
8	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.264	0.123	0.214	C	$2,300	C	$2,000
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.307	0.110	0.214	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.156	0.307	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Houston – 2:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Houston
			Danny Salazar					Doug Fister
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -115					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.284	15	27.8%	6.7%	SP vs. Left	0.331	13	12.3%	6.4%
SP vs. Right	0.276	9	25.1%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.345	6	15.4%	6.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Danny Salazar
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$11,900
				FPPG:		42.3	FPPG:		24.3
				Pitcher Rating:		74.8	Pitcher Rank:		8
2016	6	3.44	29.9%	12.9%	11.1%	51.2%	39.3%	22.6%	29
2015	30	3.39	25.8%	11.8%	7.0%	43.9%	37.4%	28.9%	29

Salazar continues to pitch well for the Indians. In his first six starts this season, he has a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate just under 30%. He is producing an elite swinging strike rate of 12.9% and most of his outs that are put into play come from ground balls. He really doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses other than his high walk rate. He draws a boom or bust matchup today against the Astros. While they do have a high strikeout rate, they are also ranked first in team ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Doug Fister
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,400
				FPPG:		24.3	FPPG:		10.9
				Pitcher Rating:		34.3	Pitcher Rank:		23
2016	6	5.13	12.7%	5.2%	9.3%	43.1%	29.3%	32.8%	24
2015	15	4.47	14.0%	5.2%	5.4%	44.6%	34.1%	29.5%	9

Fister has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. He struck out 14% of the batters that he faced last year and he has only struck out 12.7% of the batters that he has faced this season. Basically, he needs a near perfect outing to reach value. There is no room for error. While the Indians may not have the most potent offense in baseball, they should certainly be able to score some runs against Fister in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Indians Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (12 of 30)

The Indians have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching, ranking 16th in team wOBA over the last two seasons. They come into today’s game with the 12th highest team total on the board. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, as Doug Fister has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.325	0.163	0.203	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.384	0.164	0.283	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.341	0.139	0.339	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,800
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.284	0.158	0.374	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,100
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.341	0.214	0.375	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,800
6	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.282	0.177	0.095	C	$2,400	C	$3,100
7	Marlon Byrd	RIGHT	0.308	0.196	0.162	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
8	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.304	0.133	0.428	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,000
9	Juan Uribe	RIGHT	0.303	0.129	0.333	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.164	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

Stackability – GPP

Houston

Astros Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.09 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (17 of 30)

The Astros may have a lot of power in their lineup, but they draw a difficult matchup against Danny Salazar. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Salazar has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. You could maybe look to the Astros’ bats in GPPs, but they are an easy offense to fade in cash games.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.339	0.168	0.460	2B	$4,400	2B	$4,800
2	George Springer	RIGHT	0.330	0.159	0.320	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,600
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.369	0.215	0.394	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,100
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.337	0.249	0.212	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000
5	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.340	0.239	0.220	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,500
6	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.352	0.219	0.242	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,100
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.146	0.291	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.335	0.213	0.241	3B	$2,600	3B	$2,600
9	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.097	0.037	0.138			1B/C	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.183	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Colorado
			Robbie Ray					Chad Bettis
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -110					11.0
SP vs. Left	0.286	2	24.2%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.316	6	16.2%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.338	11	21.3%	10.8%	SP vs. Right	0.335	11	21.4%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Robbie Ray
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,200
				FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		12.3
				Pitcher Rating:		29.3	Pitcher Rank:		27
2016	6	4.26	22.7%	10.9%	11.4%	41.6%	32.6%	33.0%	28
2015	23	4.05	21.8%	9.0%	9.0%	43.3%	34.6%	35.0%	24

It was a bad night to stack Coors Field last night, especially if you were heavy on the Rockies (which I was). Even though Colorado could only muster up a single run, that doesn’t mean that Coors Field is all of a sudden a pitcher’s park. Continue to avoid all pitchers in this ballpark – and yes, that includes Robbie Ray.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Chad Bettis
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,600
				FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		13.5
				Pitcher Rating:		26.9	Pitcher Rank:		28
2016	7	4.05	16.7%	8.1%	5.6%	49.3%	28.4%	29.0%	17
2015	20	4.08	19.5%	9.8%	8.4%	49.3%	28.5%	31.8%	19

Bettis may be a small favorite today, but that doesn’t mean much for a pitcher in Coors Field. Even if the Rockies have the lead, he may not be eligible for the win, as pitchers don’t always last the full five innings in Coors. Bettis is an easy fade in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Diamondbacks Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.44 (2 of 30)

The Diamondbacks have won the first two games in this series rather easily. Today’s game is basically set as a pick ‘em and the Diamondbacks are currently projected to score the second most runs of any team on the schedule. They draw a favorable matchup against Chad Bettis, who has allowed a .316 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.284	0.091	0.349	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,600
2	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.359	0.258	0.408	OF	$3,800	3B/OF	$3,600
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.399	0.240	0.332	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.332	0.142	0.422	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,300
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.295	0.112	0.324	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.312	0.196	0.371	C	$4,200	C	$4,000
7	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.270	0.092	0.283	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
8	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.245	0.118	0.107	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,600
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.101	0.033	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$5,200
	Team Averages	—	0.289	0.142	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

Rockies Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.292 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.111 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.09 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.56 (1 of 30)

The Rockies have not been very productive at the plate so far in this series. Never fear though, as Coors Field will eventually give way to a huge offensive outing. Robbie Ray has been a nice pitcher for the Diamondbacks, but he has allowed a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Look for the Rockies to break out of their mini-slump today at home.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.313	0.116	0.359	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,500
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.486	0.438	0.422	SS	$4,600	SS	$5,000
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.229	0.107	0.280	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,000
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.349	0.248	0.501	3B	$5,100	3B	$5,300
5	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.342	0.188	0.382	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
6	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.441	0.302	0.471	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
7	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.319	0.060	0.350	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,100
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.246	0.000	0.233	C	$3,300	C	$2,500
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.147	0.000	0.307	P	$7,200	P	$6,600
	Team Averages	—	0.319	0.162	0.367	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Seattle – 3:40 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Seattle
			Chris Archer					Taijuan Walker
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -105					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.275	10	29.3%	6.7%	SP vs. Left	0.294	14	22.0%	5.5%
SP vs. Right	0.294	16	28.7%	9.3%	SP vs. Right	0.318	14	22.5%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Chris Archer
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$10,100
				FPPG:		33.1	FPPG:		17.4
				Pitcher Rating:		80.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
2016	7	3.37	28.8%	11.0%	10.0%	44.2%	28.8%	41.4%	13
2015	34	3.08	29.0%	12.8%	7.6%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%	27

Archer seems to have turned a corner. In his last three starts combined, he has allowed two earned runs while striking out 20 batters over 18 innings of work. The Rays’ pitching staff hasn’t had much success in this series, but the Mariners are a slightly below average offense against right-handed pitching. Even though this game is basically set as a pick ‘em, Archer’s strikeout upside puts him in play in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Taijuan Walker
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,700
				FPPG:		31.0	FPPG:		17.2
				Pitcher Rating:		76.5	Pitcher Rank:		6
2016	6	3.05	22.1%	8.3%	2.3%	50.5%	27.4%	24.7%	30
2015	29	3.69	22.2%	10.0%	5.7%	38.6%	39.0%	30.2%	23

Walker may not have as high of a ceiling as Chris Archer, but it’s really not that much lower and you get a bit of a discount with Walker. He has really pitched well this season, posting a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1%. He has increased his ground ball rate this season, which should help him cut down on his home runs allowed. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, who are one of the worst offenses in the American League against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Rays Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.47 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.47 (25 of 30)

Over the last two seasons, the Rays are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. They come into today’s game with the sixth lowest team total on the board. Taijuan Walker has looked sharp in his recent outings and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.334	0.116	0.429	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,400
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	0.187	0.475	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.296	0.148	0.312	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300
4	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.386	0.297	0.188	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.324	0.188	0.296	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
6	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.301	0.174	0.254	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,700
7	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.264	0.073	0.063	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.323	0.178	0.247	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.342	0.201	0.147	C	$2,000	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.174	0.268	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – NONE

Seattle

Mariners Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.38 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.53 (23 of 30)

The Mariners are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching. While they are playing at home, they draw one of the worst pitching matchups on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Chris Archer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA. I’m not looking to actively target either of these offenses.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.317	0.112	0.312	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,900
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.346	0.199	0.301	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.374	0.210	0.504	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.363	0.220	0.314	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.333	0.187	0.482	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,600
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.348	0.183	0.211	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,900
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.249	0.124	0.266	C	$2,100	C	$2,200
8	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.329	0.083	0.395	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200
9	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.273	0.131	0.226	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.161	0.335	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 11th

San Diego at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore at Minnesota – 1:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, Byung Ho Park

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox at Texas – 2:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – NONE

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – GPP

Cleveland at Houston – 2:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana

Stackability – GPP

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Raburn

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Tampa Bay at Seattle – 3:40 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – NONE

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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