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MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-30 05:56:48

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Baltimore
Article Image Jordan Montgomery Article Image Dylan Bundy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.361 25.0% 6.9% 20.7% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.325 31.0% 7.9% 17.5% 34.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.306 25.7% 9.9% 22.8% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.317 28.5% 8.8% 23.6% 34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Montgomery
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.35 4.30 22.5% 9.4% 35.9% 25.6% 13.2%

First off, I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day weekend. We have 15 games on the schedule and most sites have an early nine-game slate and a late five-game slate. The Yankees/Orioles game isn’t included in many slates, but we will cover it anyway.

Montgomery has had a boom or bust nature to his game, but that’s not all that surprising from a rookie that has only made eight career major league starts. Even though he is pitching on the road, he draws a high-upside matchup against the Orioles, who are ranked 24th in strikeout rate (24%) against left-handed pitching this season. Montgomery is a hard-throwing lefty that has limited the hard contact against him. He comes into the game as the smallest of underdogs.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a boom or bust tournament play in the all-day slate.

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 10 4.69 2.92 17.9% 7.4% 32.1% 33.0% 23.0%

Bundy may have a 2.92 ERA on the season, but the rest of his numbers are down across the board. He hasn’t been striking nearly as many hitters out and he is allowing a lot more hard contact this season. He draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. They are typically a team that makes a great stack because they hit a lot of home runs and generally have more breakout performances at the plate than most teams. A Yankees’ stack is viable today against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .317+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.320 0.138 28.7% 12.8% 17.0% 48.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.429 0.382 0.311 39.9% 8.5% 22.2% 50.6% C $3,400 C $4,600 C $9,000
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.195 35.6% 9.2% 20.7% 51.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.306 0.169 30.8% 3.5% 19.3% 49.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.398 0.383 0.306 48.7% 10.4% 34.1% 42.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.318 0.159 31.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.310 0.267 0.174 25.1% 3.4% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,200 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.336 0.306 0.156 23.5% 12.5% 17.9% 48.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.338 0.349 0.253 39.7% 11.6% 34.3% 30.0% 1B $2,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,800

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are a strange team. Most of the hitters in their lineup are right-handed, yet they struggle as a whole against left-handed pitching. The three main causes are Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, and Jonathan Schoop, who all have an xwOBA under .290 against southpaws. Those three bats can be avoided in all formats. The right-handed bats in this lineup that hit left-handed pitching well are Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, and Welington Castillo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.347 0.313 0.168 28.4% 7.0% 18.8% 36.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.251 0.271 0.093 30.8% 6.4% 21.4% 38.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.381 0.407 0.218 42.6% 10.1% 15.0% 40.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.343 0.177 34.7% 12.2% 31.9% 34.0% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.274 0.290 0.190 36.8% 6.6% 24.8% 42.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.363 0.380 0.223 53.2% 7.5% 23.1% 39.6% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.382 0.396 0.286 38.6% 3.1% 29.2% 45.5% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.291 0.267 0.155 24.7% 5.3% 23.6% 49.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.305 0.317 0.163 39.2% 8.2% 15.3% 46.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Houston Minnesota
Article Image Brad Peacock Article Image Ervin Santana
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-110 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.273 28.9% 14.0% 29.0% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.297 27.4% 7.4% 18.2% 46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.270 27.8% 11.2% 26.7% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.311 28.3% 8.4% 21.1% 38.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Peacock
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.55 3.69 22.1% 11.0% 41.2% 28.2% 10.6%
2017 1 3.18 0.87 36.6% 14.6% 51.3% 28.2% 35.9%

Peacock pitched extremely well in his last start, striking out batters without allowing a single run against the Tigers. Unfortunately, he was on a pitch count, because he had been coming out of the bullpen all season. Peacock threw 70 pitches in that last start, so we could potentially see the Astros stretch him a little more in this one. I’m impressed by the numbers so far, but he has a 15% walk rate and we still don’t know if he can sustain this level of success as a starting pitcher. People will be drawn in at this price point, but a Peacock fade makes some sense here.

Quick Breakdown: I’m worried about Peacock’s pitch count and high walk rate. I will be fading him in hopes that his ownership is inflated.

Ervin Santana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 10 4.80 1.80 19.1% 10.3% 41.7% 23.4% 23.4%

I’ve always said that Santana is a good pitcher, but he can’t sustain a 1.80 ERA with the way that he is pitching. You may be tired of hearing this before every one of his starts, but a .136 BABIP and a 92% left on-base percentage are unsustainable. I’m sorry, but it’s true. With regression on its way and with a matchup against the Astros, Santana is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The Astros mash right-handed pitching and strikeout at a low rate. Santana should be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Even though I have zero interest in Ervin Santana today, I don’t want to go out of my way to target hitters against him. As mentioned above, he’s not a bad pitcher, he just can’t sustain this level of success. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 29% hard contact rate. The one through five batters are all in play here, but I see them more as secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.331 0.329 0.167 31.2% 11.1% 24.5% 50.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.360 0.174 31.0% 9.1% 11.0% 36.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.389 0.366 0.192 31.7% 7.6% 10.3% 43.7% 2B $3,800 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.366 0.367 0.199 37.2% 10.5% 21.6% 48.1% SS $4,000 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.331 0.352 0.169 36.8% 11.4% 18.7% 35.2% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.329 0.310 0.197 32.1% 5.8% 18.0% 46.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
7 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.334 0.300 0.153 28.5% 3.2% 11.5% 44.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.320 0.307 0.179 31.8% 6.8% 21.3% 35.5% 3B $2,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.269 0.240 0.142 23.7% 4.4% 29.4% 47.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Minnesota

I’ve never been the best at predicting ownership (Chris Gimino is though, if you are a premium member), but I expect more people to gravitate toward Brad Peacock rather than the Twins’ offense. They will see his high strikeout rate and his splits against left and right-handed hitters and immediately think to play him over the Twins. However, most of his success came out of the bullpen and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game and I don’t mind the idea of a low-owned Twins’ stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.352 0.331 0.242 33.2% 9.0% 19.7% 38.1% 2B $4,200 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.338 0.322 0.137 28.6% 15.8% 23.9% 39.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.342 0.392 0.134 33.8% 14.1% 14.4% 47.1% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.354 0.350 0.235 43.4% 11.8% 36.9% 32.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.354 0.329 0.225 35.6% 10.8% 18.5% 43.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.321 0.309 0.119 24.1% 8.1% 12.1% 35.5% SS $3,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.309 0.282 0.183 32.3% 3.6% 23.8% 45.0% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.282 0.233 0.164 22.8% 6.5% 36.1% 36.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.320 0.188 35.7% 13.2% 31.7% 42.6% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Boston Chicago White Sox
Article Image David Price Article Image David Holmberg
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.280 31.6% 3.0% 20.2% 47.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.063 0.159 18.2% 0.0% 21.4% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.304 36.0% 6.0% 25.2% 42.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.167 0.292 25.0% 9.5% 14.3% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,300
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 35 3.60 3.99 24.0% 5.3% 43.7% 34.8% 18.6%

Price is making his long-awaited season debut. Chris Sale has been so good this season, a lot of people may have forgotten that the Red Sox also have another dominant lefty in Price. In what was a down year in 2016, Price still finished with a 3.60 SIERA and a 24% strikeout rate. He hasn’t looked great in his two rehab starts in the minors and manager John Farrell said that Price will be on a tighter leash than usual. Coming off an elbow injury, Boston will be extremely careful with Price, which hurts his fantasy appeal in his first couple of starts.

Quick Breakdown: With a pitch limit in place and potential rust, Price is an easy fade in his first start of the season.

David Holmberg
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $4,800 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.04 0.87 17.1% 5.7% 48.1% 22.2% 37.0%

Holmberg will be making a spot start for the White Sox today. He hasn’t had much success in his 12 major league starts, but he has been good out of the bullpen since being called up earlier this season. There are two major issues though, starting with a pitch count. He hasn’t thrown more than 27 pitches in a single game this season, so he likely won’t pitch more than a few innings. The other issue is his matchup. The Red Sox have the lowest strikeout rate (14%) of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Holmberg has a bad matchup and won’t pitch deep into this game. He can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have made a habit out of underperforming in favorable matchups. While it has been frustrating, they draw another one today against David Holmberg and what should be a slew of White Sox relievers. Boston has the fifth highest implied run total on the board today and they are the visiting team, which means they are guaranteed ninth inning at-bats. A stack is firmly in play here. Sam Travis should be in the lineup against the lefty and is still only $2,200 on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.336 0.337 0.237 33.6% 5.4% 9.0% 38.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.351 0.352 0.101 31.2% 14.5% 11.5% 40.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.366 0.340 0.152 34.2% 11.0% 16.9% 45.5% SS $3,900 SS $4,900 SS $9,600
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.432 0.404 0.310 39.1% 11.5% 18.2% 40.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Chris Young RIGHT 0.391 0.335 0.219 33.8% 11.8% 20.0% 21.6% P $5,500 P $5,000 P $10,000
6 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.248 0.233 0.017 24.4% 10.3% 23.5% 58.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
7 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.587 0.350 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 1B $2,200 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.433 0.384 0.222 26.6% 11.3% 13.2% 41.0% C $2,500 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.222 27.3% 10.0% 35.0% 36.4% SS $2,400 3B $2,700 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Chris Young, Sam Travis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are a boom or bust offense to target at what should be extremely low ownership. I have some serious interest in tournaments. Many may not realize how good Chicago is against southpaws (fourth in team wOBA). They are facing David Price, who is making his first start of the season and who has struggled in his two rehab starts. I wouldn’t roll out any White Sox hitters in cash games, but a stack of the right-handed hitters is awfully interesting in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.297 0.283 0.143 22.4% 5.2% 19.5% 50.0% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.330 0.286 0.161 28.5% 5.6% 14.4% 42.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.386 0.415 0.256 41.8% 8.9% 18.9% 43.3% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.344 0.374 0.171 42.6% 8.4% 21.3% 54.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.338 0.348 0.268 29.5% 12.2% 26.2% 21.9% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.325 0.287 0.104 37.4% 2.2% 25.9% 56.1% SS $2,800 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
7 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.269 0.258 0.036 23.4% 3.4% 16.9% 64.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
8 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.346 0.348 0.225 26.7% 11.1% 22.2% 23.3% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,500
9 Kevan Smith RIGHT 0.130 0.190 0.000 30.0% 0.0% 25.9% 52.6% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Tim Anderson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

LA Dodgers St. Louis
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image Mike Leake
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 0.267 24.1% 5.4% 17.9% 54.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.325 29.3% 5.4% 14.8% 56.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.276 30.3% 9.7% 31.3% 41.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.312 31.1% 2.8% 18.6% 51.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 45.3% 28.3% 22.3%
2017 4 5.19 4.76 22.7% 16.0% 40.0% 31.1% 15.6%

Hill struggled in his last start against the Cardinals, walking seven batters while only striking out four and giving up five earned runs. He has one of the best curve balls on the planet, but he needs to have better command with his fastball to get into better counts. There will be times to target Hill moving forward, but not against the same team that just knocked him around. One of the main issues with Hill this season is that he has yet to throw more than 82 pitches in a single start.

Quick Breakdown: For now, let’s take a wait and see approach with Hill.

Mike Leake
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.92 4.69 16.5% 4.0% 53.7% 30.6% 17.3%
2017 9 3.75 1.91 17.7% 4.2% 54.3% 29.0% 16.7%

Leake may not be as good as his 1.91 SIERA suggests, but he is certainly an above-average pitcher in actual baseball. In terms of his fantasy production, he is mediocre at best, thanks to an 18% strikeout rate. Leake is great at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact against him. He was dominant against the Dodgers in his last start, but I’m always a little weary of targeting a pitcher that is facing the team in two straight outings. This is also a difficult matchup on paper, as the Dodgers are ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: After his last start against the Dodgers, Leake may garner some ownership, but I still see this as a poor matchup.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

This game has very little fantasy appeal as a whole. We have two talented pitchers that are facing two talented offenses. When this happens, I tend to avoid the game when there are viable alternatives. Mike Leake is not a favorable matchup by any means, as he has a 54% ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.328 0.337 0.166 35.7% 8.6% 24.0% 42.4% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.397 0.405 0.215 41.1% 9.9% 17.3% 45.0% SS $3,400 SS $4,400 SS $8,700
3 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.363 0.351 0.257 40.1% 11.6% 25.5% 43.7% C $3,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.348 0.346 0.169 35.8% 9.7% 18.9% 43.5% 1B $2,700 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
5 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.386 0.319 0.329 42.3% 8.3% 29.8% 34.0% OF $3,600 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.354 0.309 0.184 29.7% 12.7% 24.6% 54.2% 3B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Chase Utley LEFT 0.325 0.328 0.147 38.6% 8.0% 18.1% 47.8% 2B $2,300 1B/2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.326 0.329 0.160 34.0% 7.9% 20.2% 48.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.052 0.073 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 64.3% 100.0% P $8,400 P $7,900 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals had some success against Rich Hill last week, but that doesn’t mean that we should automatically expect a repeat performance. This is still baseball and we should still trust the larger sample size rather than one single outing. In the last two seasons, Hill has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA. The early slate on most sites features nine games, which makes the Cardinals an easy offense to fade.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.351 0.361 0.177 36.8% 13.1% 14.7% 49.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.313 0.301 0.184 30.2% 13.3% 38.9% 39.5% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.336 0.360 0.172 32.9% 12.7% 20.8% 34.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.329 0.344 0.184 32.4% 8.4% 18.4% 36.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.336 0.345 0.126 30.3% 7.1% 13.0% 46.5% C $3,000 C $3,200 C $6,400
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.211 0.260 0.108 24.6% 5.0% 25.0% 40.6% 3B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.305 0.294 0.125 27.3% 10.0% 14.7% 46.9% SS $3,300 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.322 0.330 0.217 37.6% 10.0% 25.3% 32.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.224 0.258 0.000 30.8% 11.5% 38.5% 50.0% P $8,700 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Seattle Colorado
Article Image Sam Gaviglio Article Image Tyler Chatwood
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-150 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.222 0.357 37.5% 9.1% 13.6% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.330 28.4% 11.8% 18.3% 55.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.308 29.6% 3.1% 12.5% 44.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.311 30.4% 10.2% 18.1% 58.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sam Gaviglio
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.90 1.38 13.0% 5.6% 41.5% 32.6% 14.0%

Gaviglio has a 1.38 ERA in his first two starts, but he has a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He hasn’t shown much strikeout upside in the minor leagues and he is pitching on the road in Coors Field. If you were thinking about using a pitcher in this game, do yourself a favor and scroll up to the over/under.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio should be avoided in all formats.

Tyler Chatwood
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.62 3.87 17.5% 10.5% 57.2% 29.5% 19.0%
2017 10 4.56 4.50 20.0% 12.7% 56.8% 29.1% 23.0%

Chatwood is coming off of a great start against the Phillies. We shouldn’t have been surprised because he has pitched well on the road in each of the last two seasons. He really struggles in Coors Field though, which also isn’t surprising. Chatwood has a high ground ball rate, but that hasn’t been enough to tame the Coors beast.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chatwood in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners may be underdogs in this game, but they have the third highest implied run total in the slate. They see a massive ballpark shift playing in Coors Field and they face a pitcher that has a terrible track record in Colorado. We typically don’t like targeting hitters against high ground ball pitchers, but we can throw that out the window in Coors. A Mariners’ stack is firmly in play here an we can target hitters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.383 0.334 0.181 29.4% 4.7% 13.0% 53.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.328 0.325 0.122 30.5% 12.5% 27.2% 29.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.402 0.399 0.275 38.7% 8.3% 12.2% 43.9% 2B $4,300 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.372 0.381 0.238 35.3% 9.0% 23.3% 43.8% OF $4,600 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.373 0.402 0.213 40.8% 12.1% 14.4% 34.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.314 0.315 0.145 30.7% 7.1% 24.6% 43.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.308 0.267 0.052 12.2% 8.3% 13.6% 55.3% OF $3,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
8 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.290 0.321 0.072 27.4% 10.5% 17.3% 45.5% C $3,000 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.300 0.272 0.106 16.2% 8.0% 12.8% 52.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total on the board and it’s not even close. They are facing a rookie pitcher with a low strikeout rate and they are playing in Coors Field. Every once in a while we see a low scoring game in Colorado, but it’s hard seeing that happening with these two pitchers on the mound. The Rockies will be popular because they always are in Coors, but that doesn’t mean they are bad plays. We can stack them in all formats, just make sure to differentiate your Rockies’ stacks in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.410 0.373 0.281 38.5% 6.8% 18.1% 31.0% OF $4,700 OF $5,700 CF $11,200
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.368 0.375 0.121 32.4% 9.6% 12.4% 53.4% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.374 0.345 0.264 36.9% 7.9% 14.4% 36.0% 3B $4,500 3B $5,400 3B $10,400
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.361 0.349 0.191 34.5% 9.8% 18.0% 43.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.389 0.329 0.223 30.6% 9.4% 24.5% 40.1% 1B $3,800 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.322 0.302 0.158 30.8% 6.0% 25.1% 55.7% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,600 LF $8,800
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.344 0.324 0.256 37.5% 8.6% 31.9% 30.0% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.327 0.288 0.132 22.9% 10.5% 21.7% 42.4% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.232 0.182 0.049 8.6% 4.2% 22.9% 53.3% P $7,000 P $6,800 P $13,500

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Tony Wolters

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious