MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 29th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
NY Yankees at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET
NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Jordan Montgomery | Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BAL-110 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.315 | 0.361 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 20.7% | 40.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.320 | 0.325 | 31.0% | 7.9% | 17.5% | 34.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.289 | 0.306 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 22.8% | 35.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.317 | 28.5% | 8.8% | 23.6% | 34.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jordan Montgomery | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 8 | 4.35 | 4.30 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 35.9% | 25.6% | 13.2% |
First off, I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day weekend. We have 15 games on the schedule and most sites have an early nine-game slate and a late five-game slate. The Yankees/Orioles game isn’t included in many slates, but we will cover it anyway.
Montgomery has had a boom or bust nature to his game, but that’s not all that surprising from a rookie that has only made eight career major league starts. Even though he is pitching on the road, he draws a high-upside matchup against the Orioles, who are ranked 24th in strikeout rate (24%) against left-handed pitching this season. Montgomery is a hard-throwing lefty that has limited the hard contact against him. He comes into the game as the smallest of underdogs.
Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a boom or bust tournament play in the all-day slate.
Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $16,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 28.0% | 23.6% | |
2017 | 10 | 4.69 | 2.92 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 32.1% | 33.0% | 23.0% |
Bundy may have a 2.92 ERA on the season, but the rest of his numbers are down across the board. He hasn’t been striking nearly as many hitters out and he is allowing a lot more hard contact this season. He draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward here.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy can be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
The Yankees have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. They are typically a team that makes a great stack because they hit a lot of home runs and generally have more breakout performances at the plate than most teams. A Yankees’ stack is viable today against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .317+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.320 | 0.138 | 28.7% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 48.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $8,800 |
2 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.429 | 0.382 | 0.311 | 39.9% | 8.5% | 22.2% | 50.6% | C | $3,400 | C | $4,600 | C | $9,000 |
3 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.344 | 0.195 | 35.6% | 9.2% | 20.7% | 51.8% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
4 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.306 | 0.169 | 30.8% | 3.5% | 19.3% | 49.3% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
5 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.398 | 0.383 | 0.306 | 48.7% | 10.4% | 34.1% | 42.6% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,600 |
6 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.319 | 0.318 | 0.159 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 26.3% | 43.3% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,300 |
7 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.267 | 0.174 | 25.1% | 3.4% | 15.6% | 41.6% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
8 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.306 | 0.156 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 48.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
9 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.349 | 0.253 | 39.7% | 11.6% | 34.3% | 30.0% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,800 |
Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Baltimore
The Orioles are a strange team. Most of the hitters in their lineup are right-handed, yet they struggle as a whole against left-handed pitching. The three main causes are Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, and Jonathan Schoop, who all have an xwOBA under .290 against southpaws. Those three bats can be avoided in all formats. The right-handed bats in this lineup that hit left-handed pitching well are Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, and Welington Castillo.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.313 | 0.168 | 28.4% | 7.0% | 18.8% | 36.3% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,800 |
2 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.271 | 0.093 | 30.8% | 6.4% | 21.4% | 38.5% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
3 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.381 | 0.407 | 0.218 | 42.6% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 40.2% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,100 |
4 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.343 | 0.177 | 34.7% | 12.2% | 31.9% | 34.0% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
5 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.290 | 0.190 | 36.8% | 6.6% | 24.8% | 42.6% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
6 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.380 | 0.223 | 53.2% | 7.5% | 23.1% | 39.6% | C | $3,300 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
7 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.396 | 0.286 | 38.6% | 3.1% | 29.2% | 45.5% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
8 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.267 | 0.155 | 24.7% | 5.3% | 23.6% | 49.3% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,800 |
9 | J.J. Hardy | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.317 | 0.163 | 39.2% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 46.9% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Welington Castillo
Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Trey Mancini
Stackability – YELLOW
Houston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET
Houston | Minnesota | ||||||||||||||
Brad Peacock | Ervin Santana | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
HOU-110 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.262 | 0.273 | 28.9% | 14.0% | 29.0% | 42.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.269 | 0.297 | 27.4% | 7.4% | 18.2% | 46.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.264 | 0.270 | 27.8% | 11.2% | 26.7% | 45.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.280 | 0.311 | 28.3% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 38.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Brad Peacock | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 5 | 4.55 | 3.69 | 22.1% | 11.0% | 41.2% | 28.2% | 10.6% | |
2017 | 1 | 3.18 | 0.87 | 36.6% | 14.6% | 51.3% | 28.2% | 35.9% |
Peacock pitched extremely well in his last start, striking out batters without allowing a single run against the Tigers. Unfortunately, he was on a pitch count, because he had been coming out of the bullpen all season. Peacock threw 70 pitches in that last start, so we could potentially see the Astros stretch him a little more in this one. I’m impressed by the numbers so far, but he has a 15% walk rate and we still don’t know if he can sustain this level of success as a starting pitcher. People will be drawn in at this price point, but a Peacock fade makes some sense here.
Quick Breakdown: I’m worried about Peacock’s pitch count and high walk rate. I will be fading him in hopes that his ownership is inflated.
Ervin Santana | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $19,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 4.29 | 3.38 | 19.9% | 7.1% | 42.6% | 29.3% | 19.0% | |
2017 | 10 | 4.80 | 1.80 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 41.7% | 23.4% | 23.4% |
I’ve always said that Santana is a good pitcher, but he can’t sustain a 1.80 ERA with the way that he is pitching. You may be tired of hearing this before every one of his starts, but a .136 BABIP and a 92% left on-base percentage are unsustainable. I’m sorry, but it’s true. With regression on its way and with a matchup against the Astros, Santana is an easy fade in all formats.
Quick Breakdown: The Astros mash right-handed pitching and strikeout at a low rate. Santana should be avoided.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Even though I have zero interest in Ervin Santana today, I don’t want to go out of my way to target hitters against him. As mentioned above, he’s not a bad pitcher, he just can’t sustain this level of success. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 29% hard contact rate. The one through five batters are all in play here, but I see them more as secondary options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.329 | 0.167 | 31.2% | 11.1% | 24.5% | 50.2% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,800 |
2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.360 | 0.174 | 31.0% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 36.8% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,600 |
3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.366 | 0.192 | 31.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 43.7% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,900 | 2B | $9,600 |
4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.367 | 0.199 | 37.2% | 10.5% | 21.6% | 48.1% | SS | $4,000 | SS | $4,700 | SS | $9,200 |
5 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.352 | 0.169 | 36.8% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 35.2% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
6 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.329 | 0.310 | 0.197 | 32.1% | 5.8% | 18.0% | 46.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,600 |
7 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.300 | 0.153 | 28.5% | 3.2% | 11.5% | 44.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
8 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.307 | 0.179 | 31.8% | 6.8% | 21.3% | 35.5% | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,800 |
9 | Jake Marisnick | RIGHT | 0.269 | 0.240 | 0.142 | 23.7% | 4.4% | 29.4% | 47.6% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $6,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Minnesota
I’ve never been the best at predicting ownership (Chris Gimino is though, if you are a premium member), but I expect more people to gravitate toward Brad Peacock rather than the Twins’ offense. They will see his high strikeout rate and his splits against left and right-handed hitters and immediately think to play him over the Twins. However, most of his success came out of the bullpen and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game and I don’t mind the idea of a low-owned Twins’ stack in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.331 | 0.242 | 33.2% | 9.0% | 19.7% | 38.1% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,700 |
2 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.338 | 0.322 | 0.137 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 23.9% | 39.6% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
3 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.392 | 0.134 | 33.8% | 14.1% | 14.4% | 47.1% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,200 |
4 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.350 | 0.235 | 43.4% | 11.8% | 36.9% | 32.7% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,600 | IF/OF | $9,000 |
5 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.329 | 0.225 | 35.6% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 43.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,000 |
6 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.321 | 0.309 | 0.119 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 35.5% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,400 |
7 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.282 | 0.183 | 32.3% | 3.6% | 23.8% | 45.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,400 |
8 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.282 | 0.233 | 0.164 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 36.1% | 36.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
9 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.320 | 0.188 | 35.7% | 13.2% | 31.7% | 42.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Boston at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
Boston | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||||||
David Price | David Holmberg | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
BOS-165 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.320 | 0.280 | 31.6% | 3.0% | 20.2% | 47.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.063 | 0.159 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 45.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.305 | 0.304 | 36.0% | 6.0% | 25.2% | 42.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.167 | 0.292 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 14.3% | 50.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
David Price | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $9,600 | Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $18,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 35 | 3.60 | 3.99 | 24.0% | 5.3% | 43.7% | 34.8% | 18.6% | |
Price is making his long-awaited season debut. Chris Sale has been so good this season, a lot of people may have forgotten that the Red Sox also have another dominant lefty in Price. In what was a down year in 2016, Price still finished with a 3.60 SIERA and a 24% strikeout rate. He hasn’t looked great in his two rehab starts in the minors and manager John Farrell said that Price will be on a tighter leash than usual. Coming off an elbow injury, Boston will be extremely careful with Price, which hurts his fantasy appeal in his first couple of starts.
Quick Breakdown: With a pitch limit in place and potential rust, Price is an easy fade in his first start of the season.
David Holmberg | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $4,200 | Salary: | $8,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 0 | 4.04 | 0.87 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 48.1% | 22.2% | 37.0% |
Holmberg will be making a spot start for the White Sox today. He hasn’t had much success in his 12 major league starts, but he has been good out of the bullpen since being called up earlier this season. There are two major issues though, starting with a pitch count. He hasn’t thrown more than 27 pitches in a single game this season, so he likely won’t pitch more than a few innings. The other issue is his matchup. The Red Sox have the lowest strikeout rate (14%) of any team in baseball against left-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Holmberg has a bad matchup and won’t pitch deep into this game. He can be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox have made a habit out of underperforming in favorable matchups. While it has been frustrating, they draw another one today against David Holmberg and what should be a slew of White Sox relievers. Boston has the fifth highest implied run total on the board today and they are the visiting team, which means they are guaranteed ninth inning at-bats. A stack is firmly in play here. Sam Travis should be in the lineup against the lefty and is still only $2,200 on FanDuel.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.337 | 0.237 | 33.6% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 38.7% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,100 | RF | $9,900 |
2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.352 | 0.101 | 31.2% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 40.5% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
3 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.340 | 0.152 | 34.2% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 45.5% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,600 |
4 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.432 | 0.404 | 0.310 | 39.1% | 11.5% | 18.2% | 40.9% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,500 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
5 | Chris Young | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.335 | 0.219 | 33.8% | 11.8% | 20.0% | 21.6% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,000 | P | $10,000 |
6 | Andrew Benintendi | LEFT | 0.248 | 0.233 | 0.017 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 23.5% | 58.1% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,700 | LF | $9,200 |
7 | Sam Travis | RIGHT | 0.587 | 0.350 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 66.7% | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
8 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.433 | 0.384 | 0.222 | 26.6% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 41.0% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
9 | Deven Marrero | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.222 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 35.0% | 36.4% | SS | $2,400 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez
Secondary Plays – Chris Young, Sam Travis
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a boom or bust offense to target at what should be extremely low ownership. I have some serious interest in tournaments. Many may not realize how good Chicago is against southpaws (fourth in team wOBA). They are facing David Price, who is making his first start of the season and who has struggled in his two rehab starts. I wouldn’t roll out any White Sox hitters in cash games, but a stack of the right-handed hitters is awfully interesting in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.283 | 0.143 | 22.4% | 5.2% | 19.5% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
2 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.330 | 0.286 | 0.161 | 28.5% | 5.6% | 14.4% | 42.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,500 |
3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.415 | 0.256 | 41.8% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 43.3% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,800 | 1B | $9,300 |
4 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.374 | 0.171 | 42.6% | 8.4% | 21.3% | 54.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $9,000 |
5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.348 | 0.268 | 29.5% | 12.2% | 26.2% | 21.9% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
6 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.287 | 0.104 | 37.4% | 2.2% | 25.9% | 56.1% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,000 |
7 | Leury Garcia | SWITCH | 0.269 | 0.258 | 0.036 | 23.4% | 3.4% | 16.9% | 64.4% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
8 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.346 | 0.348 | 0.225 | 26.7% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 23.3% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
9 | Kevan Smith | RIGHT | 0.130 | 0.190 | 0.000 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 25.9% | 52.6% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,700 | C | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia
Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Tim Anderson
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET
LA Dodgers | St. Louis | ||||||||||||||
Rich Hill | Mike Leake | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
STL-105 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.267 | 0.267 | 24.1% | 5.4% | 17.9% | 54.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.325 | 29.3% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 56.5% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.259 | 0.276 | 30.3% | 9.7% | 31.3% | 41.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.303 | 0.312 | 31.1% | 2.8% | 18.6% | 51.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Rich Hill | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $15,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 20 | 3.29 | 2.12 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 45.3% | 28.3% | 22.3% | |
2017 | 4 | 5.19 | 4.76 | 22.7% | 16.0% | 40.0% | 31.1% | 15.6% |
Hill struggled in his last start against the Cardinals, walking seven batters while only striking out four and giving up five earned runs. He has one of the best curve balls on the planet, but he needs to have better command with his fastball to get into better counts. There will be times to target Hill moving forward, but not against the same team that just knocked him around. One of the main issues with Hill this season is that he has yet to throw more than 82 pitches in a single start.
Quick Breakdown: For now, let’s take a wait and see approach with Hill.
Mike Leake | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30 | 3.92 | 4.69 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 53.7% | 30.6% | 17.3% | |
2017 | 9 | 3.75 | 1.91 | 17.7% | 4.2% | 54.3% | 29.0% | 16.7% |
Leake may not be as good as his 1.91 SIERA suggests, but he is certainly an above-average pitcher in actual baseball. In terms of his fantasy production, he is mediocre at best, thanks to an 18% strikeout rate. Leake is great at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact against him. He was dominant against the Dodgers in his last start, but I’m always a little weary of targeting a pitcher that is facing the team in two straight outings. This is also a difficult matchup on paper, as the Dodgers are ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: After his last start against the Dodgers, Leake may garner some ownership, but I still see this as a poor matchup.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
This game has very little fantasy appeal as a whole. We have two talented pitchers that are facing two talented offenses. When this happens, I tend to avoid the game when there are viable alternatives. Mike Leake is not a favorable matchup by any means, as he has a 54% ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA in the last two seasons.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Logan Forsythe | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.337 | 0.166 | 35.7% | 8.6% | 24.0% | 42.4% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.405 | 0.215 | 41.1% | 9.9% | 17.3% | 45.0% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,400 | SS | $8,700 |
3 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.363 | 0.351 | 0.257 | 40.1% | 11.6% | 25.5% | 43.7% | C | $3,400 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
4 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.346 | 0.169 | 35.8% | 9.7% | 18.9% | 43.5% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
5 | Cody Bellinger | LEFT | 0.386 | 0.319 | 0.329 | 42.3% | 8.3% | 29.8% | 34.0% | OF | $3,600 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
6 | Chris Taylor | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.309 | 0.184 | 29.7% | 12.7% | 24.6% | 54.2% | 3B | $3,200 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
7 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.328 | 0.147 | 38.6% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 47.8% | 2B | $2,300 | 1B/2B | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
8 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.329 | 0.160 | 34.0% | 7.9% | 20.2% | 48.8% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,900 |
9 | Rich Hill | LEFT | 0.052 | 0.073 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 64.3% | 100.0% | P | $8,400 | P | $7,900 | P | $15,300 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal
Stackability – ORANGE
St. Louis
The Cardinals had some success against Rich Hill last week, but that doesn’t mean that we should automatically expect a repeat performance. This is still baseball and we should still trust the larger sample size rather than one single outing. In the last two seasons, Hill has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA. The early slate on most sites features nine games, which makes the Cardinals an easy offense to fade.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.361 | 0.177 | 36.8% | 13.1% | 14.7% | 49.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,600 |
2 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.301 | 0.184 | 30.2% | 13.3% | 38.9% | 39.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | CF | $7,500 |
3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.360 | 0.172 | 32.9% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 34.8% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
4 | Jedd Gyorko | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.344 | 0.184 | 32.4% | 8.4% | 18.4% | 36.0% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
5 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.345 | 0.126 | 30.3% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 46.5% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
6 | Jhonny Peralta | RIGHT | 0.211 | 0.260 | 0.108 | 24.6% | 5.0% | 25.0% | 40.6% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $6,000 |
7 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.294 | 0.125 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 14.7% | 46.9% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
8 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.330 | 0.217 | 37.6% | 10.0% | 25.3% | 32.1% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
9 | Mike Leake | RIGHT | 0.224 | 0.258 | 0.000 | 30.8% | 11.5% | 38.5% | 50.0% | P | $8,700 | P | $8,100 | P | $15,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko
Stackability – ORANGE
Seattle at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET
Seattle | Colorado | ||||||||||||||
Sam Gaviglio | Tyler Chatwood | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
COL-150 | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.222 | 0.357 | 37.5% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 37.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.330 | 28.4% | 11.8% | 18.3% | 55.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.360 | 0.308 | 29.6% | 3.1% | 12.5% | 44.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.303 | 0.311 | 30.4% | 10.2% | 18.1% | 58.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Sam Gaviglio | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | $8,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 2 | 4.90 | 1.38 | 13.0% | 5.6% | 41.5% | 32.6% | 14.0% |
Gaviglio has a 1.38 ERA in his first two starts, but he has a 4.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He hasn’t shown much strikeout upside in the minor leagues and he is pitching on the road in Coors Field. If you were thinking about using a pitcher in this game, do yourself a favor and scroll up to the over/under.
Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio should be avoided in all formats.
Tyler Chatwood | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $13,500 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 27 | 4.62 | 3.87 | 17.5% | 10.5% | 57.2% | 29.5% | 19.0% | |
2017 | 10 | 4.56 | 4.50 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 56.8% | 29.1% | 23.0% |
Chatwood is coming off of a great start against the Phillies. We shouldn’t have been surprised because he has pitched well on the road in each of the last two seasons. He really struggles in Coors Field though, which also isn’t surprising. Chatwood has a high ground ball rate, but that hasn’t been enough to tame the Coors beast.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chatwood in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
The Mariners may be underdogs in this game, but they have the third highest implied run total in the slate. They see a massive ballpark shift playing in Coors Field and they face a pitcher that has a terrible track record in Colorado. We typically don’t like targeting hitters against high ground ball pitchers, but we can throw that out the window in Coors. A Mariners’ stack is firmly in play here an we can target hitters from both sides of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.334 | 0.181 | 29.4% | 4.7% | 13.0% | 53.4% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,500 | SS | $8,700 |
2 | Ben Gamel | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.325 | 0.122 | 30.5% | 12.5% | 27.2% | 29.5% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.402 | 0.399 | 0.275 | 38.7% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 43.9% | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $5,100 | 2B | $9,900 |
4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.381 | 0.238 | 35.3% | 9.0% | 23.3% | 43.8% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.402 | 0.213 | 40.8% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 34.2% | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,600 |
6 | Danny Valencia | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.315 | 0.145 | 30.7% | 7.1% | 24.6% | 43.9% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
7 | Guillermo Heredia | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.267 | 0.052 | 12.2% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 55.3% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,400 |
8 | Carlos Ruiz | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.321 | 0.072 | 27.4% | 10.5% | 17.3% | 45.5% | C | $3,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
9 | Jarrod Dyson | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.272 | 0.106 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 12.8% | 52.9% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager
Secondary Plays – Danny Valencia
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Colorado
The Rockies have the highest implied run total on the board and it’s not even close. They are facing a rookie pitcher with a low strikeout rate and they are playing in Coors Field. Every once in a while we see a low scoring game in Colorado, but it’s hard seeing that happening with these two pitchers on the mound. The Rockies will be popular because they always are in Coors, but that doesn’t mean they are bad plays. We can stack them in all formats, just make sure to differentiate your Rockies’ stacks in tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Charlie Blackmon | LEFT | 0.410 | 0.373 | 0.281 | 38.5% | 6.8% | 18.1% | 31.0% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,700 | CF | $11,200 |
2 | DJ LeMahieu | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.375 | 0.121 | 32.4% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 53.4% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,700 |
3 | Nolan Arenado | RIGHT | 0.374 | 0.345 | 0.264 | 36.9% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 36.0% | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $5,400 | 3B | $10,400 |
4 | Carlos Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.349 | 0.191 | 34.5% | 9.8% | 18.0% | 43.7% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,600 |
5 | Mark Reynolds | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.329 | 0.223 | 30.6% | 9.4% | 24.5% | 40.1% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
6 | Ian Desmond | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.302 | 0.158 | 30.8% | 6.0% | 25.1% | 55.7% | OF | $3,700 | 1B/OF | $4,600 | LF | $8,800 |
7 | Trevor Story | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.324 | 0.256 | 37.5% | 8.6% | 31.9% | 30.0% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $8,800 |
8 | Tony Wolters | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.288 | 0.132 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 21.7% | 42.4% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
9 | Tyler Chatwood | RIGHT | 0.232 | 0.182 | 0.049 | 8.6% | 4.2% | 22.9% | 53.3% | P | $7,000 | P | $6,800 | P | $13,500 |