MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-13 17:53:57

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Chicago Cubs
			Anibal Sanchez							Yu Darvish
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-220
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.311	33.5%	6.7%	22.9%	33.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.314	35.1%	7.5%	26.6%	44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.409	0.362	38.5%	6.4%	20.4%	38.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	0.282	31.4%	7.6%	28.4%	36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%
	2018	1	4.36	2.25	22.2%	13.9%	39.1%	17.4%	34.8%

We technically have two early games on the schedule. This game is included in the early-only and the all-day slates. Sanchez is well past his prime, but he still owns a decent strikeout rate. The problem is twofold — there are 29 other pitchers to choose from in the all-day slate and there are arguably three better pitching options in the early-only slate. Sanchez is listed as a big underdog on the road against the Cubs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Sanchez in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yu Darvish
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.71	3.86	27.3%	7.6%	40.7%	33.1%	20.5%
	2018	2	2.73	5.23	31.0%	7.1%	41.7%	37.5%	16.7%

Darvish has a 5.73 ERA, but as we all know, that’s one of the worst statistics to measure a pitcher’s skill level. We prefer SIERA or xFIP, as they take into account a number of factors that the traditional ERA leaves out. In his first two starts, Darvish has a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 31%. The Braves are a high-contact offense, but that’s not a big concern when it comes to high-strikeout pitchers like Darvish. He’s going to be the chalk, but as we saw in last night’s slate with Jose Berrios, there can be such a thing as good chalk, even in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Darvish is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves come into the game as a massive underdog and with a low implied total. They draw a difficult matchup against Yu Darvish, who I expect to bounce back in a big way this season. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA over the last two seasons. I’ll never talk anyone off of a Freddie Freeman one-off play in tournaments, but the rest of the lineup can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.324	0.288	0.110	23.6%	6.2%	13.9%	42.5%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.318	0.317	0.176	30.2%	6.2%	17.3%	37.3%	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.427	0.430	0.292	38.7%	15.8%	16.8%	32.8%	1B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.326	0.344	0.106	35.0%	11.3%	15.9%	46.7%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.411	0.360	0.267	45.5%	6.1%	27.3%	31.8%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
6	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.279	0.295	0.093	26.8%	9.9%	21.5%	46.7%	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.356	0.337	0.218	31.9%	5.7%	12.5%	35.6%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.343	0.328	0.079	21.3%	12.3%	21.9%	58.7%	3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Anibal Sanchez	RIGHT	0.000	0.129	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	P	$5,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw an exploitable matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He’s a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .362 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras are both elite plays at their respective positions. Even though the splits aren’t in favor of the lefties, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber are viable in the early-only slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.345	0.341	0.272	34.7%	11.0%	34.0%	40.6%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.399	0.366	0.251	31.9%	13.0%	19.8%	37.9%	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.326	0.346	0.152	32.7%	11.3%	14.3%	50.7%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.353	0.328	0.209	35.8%	7.9%	25.3%	52.4%	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.346	0.362	0.277	37.9%	11.5%	29.9%	40.8%	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.288	0.299	0.165	33.8%	6.4%	22.9%	38.8%	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.319	0.342	0.142	27.3%	10.5%	11.1%	47.2%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.323	0.290	0.213	30.4%	6.2%	28.9%	48.6%	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Yu Darvish	RIGHT	0.105	0.072	0.000	0.0%	6.3%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$9,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Cincinnati
			Luke Weaver							Tyler Mahle
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-140							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.282	25.9%	7.0%	26.4%	45.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.413	0.458	40.6%	18.0%	16.0%	45.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.306	29.0%	7.2%	28.7%	49.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.341	25.8%	5.8%	17.4%	45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	10	3.29	3.88	28.6%	6.8%	49.4%	25.9%	19.1%
	2018	2	3.90	1.59	22.7%	9.1%	37.9%	36.7%	10.0%

After an impressive rookie campaign, Weaver is back at it again this season. Through two starts, he has a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Even though he’s pitching on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, he has the ability to keep the ball on the ground and limit hard contact. Outside of Joey Votto, the Reds aren’t an offense that should scare any pitcher. Weaver is significantly cheaper than Yu Darvish and should garner less ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Weaver is an elite tournament play on single pitcher sites and an elite SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Mahle
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	4	5.53	2.70	15.2%	12.0%	52.5%	23.8%	22.2%
	2018	2	3.91	4.22	20.5%	6.8%	32.3%	45.2%	16.1%

Mahle hasn’t impressed in his first six major league starts, posting a SIERA close to five with a below-average strikeout rate. We certainly shouldn’t give up yet, as he has shown plenty of upside in the minors. In his last full season at the Triple-A level, he posted a 3.25 FIP with a strikeout rate of 21%. Now with all of that said, I don’t have a ton of interest in Mahle in a difficult matchup against the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: If I had to rank the four pitchers in the early slate, Mahle would be third.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals see a massive ballpark bump playing in Cincinnati. Year after year, this is one of the best ballparks for home runs. The Cardinals are favored and the total for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The sample size is still small (six starts), but Tyler Mahle has allowed a .458 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .341 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. An argument can be made for any of the first seven batters in this Cardinals’ lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.357	0.361	0.232	37.1%	12.9%	21.9%	37.6%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.392	0.369	0.196	35.0%	12.4%	22.7%	50.9%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.374	0.388	0.234	43.1%	17.9%	19.8%	25.2%	3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.393	0.373	0.254	40.4%	8.3%	22.7%	45.4%	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.343	0.393	0.149	34.8%	9.0%	18.3%	46.5%	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.306	0.321	0.138	33.3%	5.2%	14.3%	44.8%	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
7	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.353	0.344	0.227	36.6%	3.3%	28.0%	32.1%	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.329	0.315	0.130	27.2%	9.3%	13.8%	47.8%	2B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
9	Luke Weaver	RIGHT	0.209	0.146	0.000	0.0%	5.3%	36.8%	100.0%	P	$8,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they have a tough matchup against Luke Weaver. He has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Jesse Winker and Joey Votto both have elite power numbers against right-handed pitching and are viable in all formats. The rest of the Reds are secondary options in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.409	0.380	0.210	34.0%	13.7%	19.2%	52.1%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.269	0.285	0.068	20.1%	3.2%	14.5%	43.4%	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.425	0.436	0.238	36.6%	18.2%	9.9%	36.6%	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.381	0.347	0.244	37.1%	6.2%	20.5%	38.9%	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.298	0.282	0.205	30.5%	5.2%	28.6%	32.0%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.332	0.338	0.142	34.6%	10.0%	15.9%	41.3%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Blandino	RIGHT	0.000	0.196	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	50.0%	3B	$2,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Mahle	RIGHT	0.227	0.177	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	25.0%	85.7%	P	$6,300	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.294	0.257	0.088	15.5%	9.1%	20.2%	47.8%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Washington
			Kyle Freeland							Tanner Roark
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.300	33.9%	7.1%	28.2%	35.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.359	0.342	31.8%	10.3%	19.4%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.346	0.328	31.1%	9.7%	12.4%	58.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.261	0.285	24.1%	6.3%	24.8%	54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%
	2018	2	3.58	5.56	22.9%	8.3%	56.7%	27.3%	24.2%

Freeland has never been a high strikeout pitcher. He relies on a high ground ball rate and an ability to induce a lot of soft and medium contact. In other words, he’s a better pitcher in real life than he is in fantasy baseball. He can be avoided tonight against the Nationals, who have a talented offense that is loaded with left and right-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland can be avoided in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%
	2018	2	3.13	4.50	30.6%	10.2%	41.4%	34.5%	20.7%

Roark has improved his strikeout rate in each of the last three seasons and that trend has continued through his first two starts of 2018. He’s not going to sustain a 31% strikeout rate, but perhaps I didn’t give him enough credit last season. The Rockies’ lineup looks tough on paper, but some of those numbers are inflated by Coors Field. I don’t hesitate to target pitchers against the Rockies when they are on the road. Roark isn’t my favorite pitcher of the slate, but he has decent upside, his price is affordable, and his ownership should be reasonable.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is an elite SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

It’s nice to see that some things never change. Gio Gonzalez was in a good spot last night and as usual, he let us down as the chalk. I’m a bigger fan on Tanner Roark as a whole and tonight’s slate is much bigger than last night’s, so we don’t need to get a ton of exposure to this Rockies’ offense. Roark has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters, but there’s a chance Colorado will be without Charlie Blackmon again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.323	0.329	0.074	28.6%	8.5%	14.4%	55.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,100
2	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.326	0.319	0.155	36.3%	5.2%	14.8%	48.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,700
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.346	0.341	0.222	35.9%	9.2%	17.8%	36.5%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,100	3B	$10,200
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.360	0.332	0.194	31.5%	12.2%	20.2%	44.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.286	0.282	0.174	37.4%	7.8%	34.1%	34.3%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,500
6	Mike Tauchman	LEFT	0.205	0.222	0.067	27.8%	11.8%	35.3%	66.7%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,500
7	Ryan McMahon	LEFT	0.223	0.229	0.036	15.8%	15.2%	27.3%	84.2%	1B	$2,200	1B/2B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.355	0.341	0.243	37.6%	10.7%	28.9%	34.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT	0.255	0.164	0.114	25.0%	2.6%	44.7%	70.6%	P	$5,800	P	$6,700	P	$12,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (if active), Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals have three hitters that really shine when facing a left-handed pitcher. Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Howie Kendrick all boast a .400+ xwOBA against southpaws, making them intriguing options against Kyle Freeland. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .328 xwOBA with only a 13% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are secondary plays against the lefty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.288	0.279	0.069	27.4%	8.0%	16.1%	52.4%	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,300
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.436	0.407	0.319	37.9%	15.7%	13.4%	30.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.350	0.307	0.150	32.2%	9.2%	27.0%	51.1%	OF	$5,300	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,700
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.416	0.404	0.308	41.8%	9.3%	17.3%	44.5%	1B	$2,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.388	0.414	0.189	36.8%	9.5%	18.1%	47.4%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,500
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.332	0.308	0.184	31.8%	4.9%	31.1%	47.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,700
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.354	0.333	0.191	29.6%	6.3%	19.8%	43.9%	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,100	2B	$5,500
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.301	0.274	0.141	18.5%	9.2%	28.7%	46.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.000	0.021	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	50.0%	60.0%	P	$8,200	P	$8,700	P	$17,100

Elite Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Wilmer Difo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Boston
			Chris Tillman							Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-210							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.449	0.431	36.6%	19.9%	10.9%	46.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.334	31.5%	8.4%	27.7%	30.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.391	37.4%	5.5%	15.4%	35.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.306	30.0%	8.7%	25.8%	36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29
	2017	19	5.76	7.84	14.2%	11.5%	39.5%	37.7%	16.3%
	2018	2	7.04	8.68	6.1%	16.3%	44.7%	31.6%	10.5%

Tillman has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons. There’s nothing to suggest that is going to change anytime soon, especially in a matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Tillman carries way more risk than upside and should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman doesn’t have the talent or the matchup in his favor tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29
	2017	24	4.05	4.19	25.8%	8.6%	34.9%	30.8%	18.6%
	2018	1	2.31	7.36	38.9%	11.1%	55.6%	11.1%	55.6%

Rodriguez racked up seven strikeouts in his first start of the season, but he failed to get out of the fourth inning. While a matchup against the Orioles brings upside, it also makes Rodriguez a risky play given the number of right-handed power hitters they have in their lineup. I’m always willing to take some risks at SP2, especially when there is strikeout upside. A pitcher like Tanner Roark is safer for cash games, but E-Rod is viable in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez has a wide range of potential outcomes here, but his upside puts him on my short list of tournament targets.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and are facing a pitcher that can have control issues at times. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a big game from this offense, but I actually have more interest in Eduardo Rodriguez. Baltimore will have seven or eight right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight and Rodriguez has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career. If we look the BvP, he hass held the current roster of the Orioles to a .318 wOBA with a strikeout rate over 30%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.312	0.316	0.118	32.3%	4.4%	24.4%	53.5%	OF	$3,000	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,300
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.366	0.397	0.281	44.7%	6.6%	15.5%	38.1%	SS	$4,500	SS	$4,900	3B	$9,200
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.393	0.374	0.275	38.7%	8.4%	23.6%	40.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.323	0.332	0.146	32.0%	6.9%	17.9%	44.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
5	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.341	0.364	0.197	39.3%	13.5%	20.9%	45.8%	1B	$2,300	3B	$2,700	1B	$5,400
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.282	0.322	0.133	33.3%	9.9%	39.5%	34.5%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.343	0.340	0.188	38.8%	8.5%	27.9%	49.0%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100	SS	$5,500
8	Anthony Santander	SWITCH	0.210	0.170	0.053	22.2%	9.5%	47.6%	44.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.338	0.379	0.222	41.2%	5.2%	27.3%	39.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Jonathan Schoop (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are huge favorites in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs. As you can see in the graph at the top of the page, their run projection is the highest on the board and nearly a half run higher than the next closest team. Chris Tillman has a low strikeout rate, he doesn’t induce many ground balls, and he gives up a lot of soft and medium contact. He’s the perfect pitcher to stack against, especially in this ballpark. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.338	0.354	0.190	37.4%	9.6%	11.6%	39.3%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,000
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.346	0.346	0.177	35.4%	10.7%	16.2%	38.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,400
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.395	0.412	0.343	49.2%	9.4%	27.6%	42.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,100
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.328	0.385	0.213	39.3%	9.5%	19.7%	41.4%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.317	0.303	0.201	37.3%	7.2%	21.3%	47.4%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.346	0.268	0.157	26.3%	3.1%	11.6%	52.2%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,500	3B	$6,900
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.300	0.322	0.160	34.6%	8.7%	22.8%	45.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,800
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.312	0.294	0.098	25.6%	4.7%	18.7%	47.7%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,600
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.234	0.258	0.047	20.6%	11.5%	21.6%	53.6%	2B	$2,200	2B/OF	$3,000	3B	$5,900

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								NY Mets
			Zach Davies							Steven Matz
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-128							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.348	31.2%	8.7%	17.8%	44.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.312	23.6%	13.2%	13.2%	58.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.337	28.8%	4.8%	14.1%	53.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.359	34.5%	5.4%	19.2%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	33	4.72	3.90	15.2%	6.7%	50.2%	28.8%	19.9%
	2018	2	2.89	5.40	29.2%	6.3%	27.6%	53.3%	13.3%

Davies has been the polar opposite version of himself this season. He has a high strikeout rate, a low ground ball rate, and he has given up a lot of hard contact. Given the fact that he hasn’t had a change in velocity or pitch selection, I’m going to chalk this up to a small sample issue. I’ll take a wait and see approach with Davies, which obviously means I will be avoiding him tonight against the Mets.

Quick Breakdown: His splits are strange this season. I need more information before making a decision on Davies.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%
	2018	2	3.40	3.00	31.6%	13.2%	47.4%	23.8%	23.8%

Matz has given up a lot of walks in his first two starts of the season, but we are more than willing to deal with it when it is accompanied by a 3.40 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 32%. The Brewers have some big right-handed hitters at the top of the order, but the talent level really drops off after their clean-up batter. If you look at their projected lineup below, you can see a lot of red and yellow boxes for the five-through-nine hitters. I’m not sure how deep Matz will pitch into this game, but I like his strikeout upside for the price.

Quick Breakdown: DFS is all about strikeouts when it comes to starting pitching. Matz is viable as an SP2 in all formats at this price.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers aren’t an offense that I want a ton of exposure to tonight, but I may look at a few one-off targets here for my non-Steven Matz tournament lineups. Since the beginning of last season, he has allowed a .359 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Each of the first four hitters in the Brewers’ lineup have a .355+ wOBA and a .190+ ISO against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.359	0.349	0.197	37.8%	8.7%	12.4%	38.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
2	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.363	0.386	0.205	44.1%	14.0%	26.3%	45.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,800
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.352	0.403	0.255	45.8%	12.8%	10.4%	46.9%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,600	LF	$9,200
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.390	0.364	0.220	52.6%	11.2%	27.2%	42.1%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
5	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.317	0.279	0.122	32.4%	3.9%	17.1%	48.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,900
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.290	0.315	0.076	40.5%	4.4%	23.7%	35.4%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
7	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.257	0.231	0.116	28.7%	7.1%	30.7%	62.4%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,000	2B	$5,900
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.265	0.251	0.054	26.9%	9.1%	18.2%	54.4%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,700
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.251	0.212	0.000	0.0%	22.2%	22.2%	60.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,000	P	$13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain (GPP), Domingo Santana (GPP), Ryan Braun (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

In 2017, Zach Davies was a pitcher that we didn’t love to target and that we didn’t love to target hitters against. He had a low strikeout rate, but a high ground ball rate, which allowed him to limit hard contact. This season has been different thus far, although we are only dealing with a two-game sample. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce are always viable options against right-handed pitching, but Steven Matz is really the only player in this game that I will have a lot of exposure to.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.421	0.398	0.295	39.8%	15.6%	21.9%	37.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,100
2	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.370	0.347	0.232	39.7%	7.8%	19.6%	35.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,200
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.368	0.399	0.269	41.8%	10.3%	21.1%	33.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,700
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.324	0.348	0.168	30.5%	14.9%	21.7%	37.4%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.320	0.345	0.174	36.1%	9.8%	16.0%	40.5%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,400	SS	$6,600
6	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.305	0.340	0.139	36.2%	7.8%	16.5%	35.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,900
7	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.288	0.313	0.194	33.5%	4.8%	15.5%	37.8%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	C	$5,600
8	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.110	0.214	0.000	15.4%	0.0%	27.8%	45.5%	P	$7,000	P	$6,900	P	$13,700
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.272	0.234	0.122	22.9%	1.9%	32.1%	51.0%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,400

MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 13th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina, Paul DeJong

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon (if active), Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Howie Kendrick

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Wilmer Difo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (GPP), Jonathan Schoop (GPP), Danny Valencia (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain (GPP), Domingo Santana (GPP), Ryan Braun (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash), Jay Bruce (Cash), Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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