MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-20 04:10:38

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Atlanta
			Mike Montgomery							R.A. Dickey
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-134							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.251	0.305	26.9%	8.4%	20.6%	59.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.336	28.3%	9.5%	15.1%	40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.318	28.7%	11.1%	21.4%	58.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.337	30.1%	8.2%	17.8%	47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	7	3.57	2.52	22.2%	9.2%	58.4%	25.6%	18.3%
	2017	6	4.48	3.75	19.6%	11.8%	59.0%	31.7%	21.6%

We have a unique slate on Wednesday. There are 15 games on the schedule, seven early and eight late. However, the sites are treating the early slate differently. FanDuel has a five game early-only slate, DraftKings has a seven game early-only slate, and FantasyDraft has a five game early-only slate. To keep things simple, I’m going to refer to all of the early games as being in the same slate and you can adjust from there based on the site(s) that you are playing on.

Montgomery is a ground ball pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact. This allows him to limit damage, regardless of the ballpark that he’s pitching in. He doesn’t have a high strikeout rate (20% this season), but it’s high enough that he can easily reach value as an SP2. His matchup against the Braves may not seem that difficult, but it may surprise you that Atlanta is ranked eighth in the top eight in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against southpaws. The early slate is filled with good pitching options, so I’m going to take a pass on Montgomery.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery may not be a bad play in a points-per-dollar sense, but there are better options in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	17	5.12	4.23	15.4%	8.9%	48.5%	28.1%	24.8%

Dickey has really pitched well in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has averaged over five strikeouts per game and he hasn’t allowed more than one earned run per start. While that’s impressive, I am going to trust the larger sample size here. He has been a low strikeout, low upside pitcher in each of the last two seasons. The Cubs haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this year, but they have won five games in a row and finally appear to be heating up offensively.

Quick Breakdown: With all of the pitching options available in this slate, Dickey is an easy fade despite the recent form.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

R.A. Dickey has pitched well in his last five starts, but he still presents one of the best matchups for an opposing offense. We know that this ballpark is great for left-handed power and the Cubs’ offense has been heating up since the All-Star break. I typically like to look at BvP when it comes to knuckleballers, but the Cubs have very few plate appearances against Dickey. I will be targeting the batters that hit right-handed pitching well, which includes Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.344	0.366	0.171	33.5%	15.0%	11.7%	47.3%	OF	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.379	0.347	0.239	36.4%	10.8%	22.5%	32.7%	3B	$3,800	3B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.387	0.381	0.254	35.7%	12.6%	15.4%	36.2%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.341	0.310	0.202	33.9%	8.7%	27.7%	52.3%	C	$3,300	C	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.306	0.355	0.239	34.1%	12.4%	27.1%	41.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.364	0.339	0.305	35.8%	9.5%	29.7%	42.6%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.294	0.312	0.109	26.9%	8.4%	14.0%	46.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.298	0.295	0.158	28.7%	7.1%	22.5%	43.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
9	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.040	0.126	0.000	28.6%	0.0%	41.7%	81.8%	P	$6,900	P	$5,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta

Mike Montgomery has a high walk rate and a mediocre strikeout rate, but he’s a tough lefty to hit. He has a 59% ground ball rate and he has induced a 22% soft contact rate this season. To make matters worse, this is a ballpark that benefits left-handed hitters and I’m not sure I want to target a lefty/lefty matchup when we have an elite ground ball pitcher on the mound. Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers are fine on-off targets, but I will have limited exposure to the Braves.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.338	0.258	0.077	16.6%	6.2%	10.6%	61.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.278	0.295	0.106	22.6%	4.2%	12.0%	43.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.397	0.400	0.229	44.2%	9.1%	28.8%	39.6%	3B	$3,800	1B/3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.373	0.393	0.271	35.0%	9.0%	18.6%	42.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.329	0.352	0.114	33.7%	11.2%	23.9%	42.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.278	0.304	0.069	31.9%	7.6%	14.8%	53.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.386	0.320	0.254	36.7%	11.3%	19.7%	40.8%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.521	0.401	0.321	29.2%	3.4%	13.8%	41.7%	SS	$2,800	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	R.A. Dickey	RIGHT	0.146	0.185	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	66.7%	P	$7,200	P	$6,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Miami
			Nick Pivetta							Dan Straily
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.279	29.7%	12.7%	24.6%	36.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.277	0.304	29.3%	11.1%	21.7%	35.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.415	0.369	39.1%	9.6%	24.4%	36.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.309	35.1%	6.2%	21.3%	32.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	11	4.49	4.73	24.5%	11.1%	36.3%	34.8%	13.0%

Pivetta has a ton of promise, but he still needs time to develop and to figure out the major leagues. His strikeout rate has carried over to the big leagues (currently sitting at 25%), but he has a mediocre SIERA (4.49) and a high walk rate (11%). He comes into this start as a sizable underdog on the road against a low-strikeout Marlins’ offense. Pivetta is worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but he’s an easy fade in a slate that is loaded with good pitching options.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	18	4.13	3.31	23.5%	7.0%	37.4%	33.0%	20.9%

If Straily was pitching in Monday’s or Tuesday’s slate, I would have had a lot of interest in him. After two days of terrible pitchers, we have a ton of options to choose from on Wednesday. He’s still worth a look in tournaments, but he’s far from a core play. Straily is having a nice season overall, he has an above-average strikeout rate, and he is facing a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Straily also benefits from being a fly-ball pitcher in this big ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: The upside is certainly there for Straily and he comes into the game as a big favorite. He’s viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies were able to score some runs against Adam Conley last night, but draw a tougher matchup on Wednesday. Seeing as how Philadelphia is one of the worst offenses in baseball against southpaws, we shouldn’t get too excited about their prospects against Dan Straily, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.330	0.307	0.108	24.9%	10.6%	19.2%	52.2%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.305	0.276	0.179	28.4%	5.7%	21.4%	40.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.323	0.336	0.103	34.8%	8.2%	18.0%	40.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.321	0.325	0.206	37.9%	5.4%	22.5%	42.6%	1B	$3,100	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.289	0.315	0.151	28.1%	6.5%	16.0%	46.2%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.332	0.307	0.150	29.4%	8.0%	21.2%	42.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.347	0.380	0.161	45.8%	5.9%	20.6%	41.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.286	0.301	0.159	31.5%	6.1%	29.4%	47.7%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.159	0.115	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	38.5%	60.0%	P	$7,100	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami

The Marlins are one of my favorite offenses to target in the early slate. They draw one of the few favorable matchups, as they are facing a rookie pitcher that has struggled with his command. The sample size is still small (11 starts), but Nick Pivetta has been a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .369 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Giancarlo Stanton has three home runs in his last two games and Marcell Ozuna has good power against right-handed pitching as well. If you want to complete the Marlins’ stack, you can throw in the left-handed bats of Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.302	0.250	0.076	18.1%	5.6%	14.6%	57.0%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.350	0.338	0.250	37.3%	9.4%	28.5%	40.9%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.371	0.381	0.183	40.1%	12.2%	19.3%	55.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.348	0.339	0.205	37.8%	7.5%	20.7%	45.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.359	0.388	0.237	39.5%	11.9%	17.4%	42.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.339	0.310	0.124	30.3%	5.2%	16.6%	50.4%	C	$3,200	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.338	0.329	0.151	30.9%	7.3%	19.0%	38.6%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.291	0.286	0.138	38.9%	6.0%	19.0%	49.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.046	0.076	0.000	14.7%	2.4%	56.6%	87.5%	P	$8,600	P	$9,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Minnesota
			Jordan Montgomery							Jose Berrios
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-100							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.273	0.319	19.4%	7.0%	18.6%	51.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.349	30.4%	11.1%	19.0%	40.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.299	28.6%	7.4%	23.4%	40.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.304	27.9%	7.9%	22.2%	41.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30

	2017	16	4.19	3.65	22.8%	7.4%	41.6%	27.6%	14.7%

We have two Montgomery’s taking the mound in the early slate and they both happen to be lefties. This Montgomery owns a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a hard contact rate of 28% in 16 starts this season. He has shown great poise for a rookie pitcher and outside of a few good right-handed hitters, the Twins have really struggled against left-handed pitching. At a price of $6,200 on DraftKings, he isn’t a bad play by any means. However, he has the same issue as a few of the pitchers we have already talked about – there are better pitching options available in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a viable SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, but he’s far from a core play.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2016	14	5.36	8.02	17.4%	12.5%	38.0%	33.3%	18.2%
	2017	11	3.97	3.53	23.7%	6.5%	43.3%	25.0%	20.9%

Berrios is another talented young pitcher with a ton of promise. He has certainly taken a big step forward this season, but he has struggled in his last four starts, allowing 14 earned runs and striking out only 17 batters. The sledding isn’t going to get any easier in today’s matchup against the Yankees, who are ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. With quite a few options in the early slate, we don’t need to take a risk with Berrios in this poor matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate, even though their matchup against Jose Berrios doesn’t look great on paper. Berrios has been tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .349 xwOBA to lefties in his career. This brings Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius into play and we can never count out the big right-handed bats of Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, and Aaron Judge.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.347	0.327	0.151	30.9%	12.5%	17.4%	47.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
2	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.327	0.325	0.146	31.0%	11.9%	25.8%	44.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.416	0.386	0.288	38.2%	8.4%	23.2%	47.5%	C	$3,200	C	$4,500	C	$8,800
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.350	0.359	0.220	35.0%	9.8%	20.3%	49.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.315	0.263	0.185	24.3%	3.5%	15.4%	41.5%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.330	0.317	0.129	26.4%	10.0%	12.8%	48.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.330	0.306	0.175	31.3%	3.5%	19.6%	49.6%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
8	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.391	0.256	0.529	66.7%	5.3%	31.6%	16.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
9	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.288	0.303	0.212	30.0%	12.5%	21.3%	49.4%	1B	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins are a team that I don’t mind targeting against lefties, but they are better as individual one-off targets instead of a complete stack. They have three right-handed hitters (Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, and Miguel Sano) that all mash left-handed pitching, while the rest of their lineup has struggled. These three are all viable against rookie Jordan Montgomery, even though he has had some reverse splits in his last 16 starts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.393	0.339	0.278	38.7%	9.5%	20.2%	35.9%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.399	0.384	0.169	36.1%	15.5%	17.2%	43.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.263	0.295	0.073	25.0%	7.7%	17.5%	59.0%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.376	0.352	0.277	41.7%	14.3%	32.5%	35.2%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.236	0.240	0.090	28.3%	7.6%	25.2%	49.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,000
6	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.272	0.228	0.065	17.5%	3.0%	23.0%	56.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
7	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.284	0.268	0.144	27.8%	3.6%	18.8%	37.1%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
8	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.333	0.354	0.247	42.9%	10.6%	30.6%	38.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9			2.015		3.000	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$7,000	P	$7,900	P	$8,000

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Houston
			James Paxton							Charlie Morton
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-115							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.287	27.0%	7.5%	16.5%	52.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.310	31.6%	10.4%	28.7%	47.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.270	33.4%	6.2%	26.1%	45.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.336	32.8%	8.9%	22.2%	57.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Paxton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	20	3.54	3.79	22.9%	4.7%	48.1%	33.1%	14.1%
	2017	14	3.83	3.21	27.2%	9.0%	43.1%	31.0%	16.9%

Paxton has been one of my favorite pitchers to target this season. He is having a breakout season and he would be getting a lot more recognition nationally if he didn’t miss a couple of months with an injury. He has at least eight strikeouts in four of his last five starts and he owns a 27% strikeout rate on the season. While I love Paxton, I’m not going to break my cardinal rule of avoiding pitchers against the Astros. They have the best offense in baseball and have the third lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Even without Carlos Correa, they are extremely tough against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Anytime a pitcher faces the Astros, I worry about his pitch count and his upside. I’m a big Paxton fan, but will be avoiding him today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2016	4	3.56	4.15	26.8%	11.3%	62.8%	20.5%	15.9%
	2017	11	3.95	3.82	24.9%	9.2%	50.6%	35.3%	16.8%

Morton has completely revamped his career. He was once a slow-throwing ground ball pitcher that limited hard contact and struggled against lefties. He is now a hard-throwing pitcher that has allowed more hard contact and has struggled against righties. It’s quite interesting, but the 25% strikeout rate is certainly appealing. His matchup against the Mariners isn’t great, but Morton still provides upside as a low-owned tournament play.

Quick Breakdown: Morton is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners have faced a tough rotation in this series. Their matchup against Charlie Morton isn’t great, as he has an above-average strikeout rate and a 51% ground ball rate. I will likely be avoiding the Mariners altogether, but if you need to target a hitter or two here, give an edge to the ones that can hit from the right side of the plate. Over the last two seasons, Morton has allowed a .336 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.382	0.334	0.175	29.4%	4.7%	13.4%	53.2%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
2	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.327	0.303	0.095	26.6%	9.6%	24.1%	39.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.384	0.398	0.260	38.9%	8.2%	12.1%	46.1%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.368	0.372	0.232	35.8%	8.4%	22.8%	43.9%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,200
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.366	0.400	0.211	40.2%	10.9%	14.8%	33.4%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.318	0.314	0.141	29.2%	7.0%	24.7%	45.2%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,400	3B	$6,600
7	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.322	0.280	0.128	18.1%	8.1%	13.4%	48.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
8	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.306	0.273	0.075	14.6%	8.2%	12.6%	54.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,400	LF	$4,800
9	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.312	0.313	0.236	35.2%	7.1%	37.5%	29.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,200	C	$6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

The Astros are the best offense in baseball, but they draw an extremely difficult matchup against James Paxton. Not only does Paxton have an elite strikeout rate, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA in the last two seasons. George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Evan Gattis are all viable one-off tournament targets, but they are far from core plays in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.423	0.416	0.310	39.6%	12.3%	21.2%	43.8%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,200
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.391	0.365	0.203	33.0%	10.8%	12.9%	45.1%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,000
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.221	0.269	0.014	21.1%	7.1%	18.2%	40.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
4	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.347	0.360	0.249	31.6%	7.3%	17.6%	39.1%	C	$2,600	C	$4,300	C	$8,400
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.352	0.328	0.195	39.3%	5.9%	20.6%	31.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.325	0.276	0.194	28.1%	5.9%	24.9%	48.8%	SS	$3,500	3B/OF	$4,600	1B	$8,800
7	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.268	0.291	0.141	36.8%	2.3%	11.3%	47.4%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
8	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.367	0.336	0.198	31.4%	11.8%	18.4%	27.2%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.298	0.284	0.164	28.5%	7.0%	26.7%	37.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego								Colorado
			Clayton Richard							Jon Gray
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-165							11.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	0.234	19.7%	6.2%	20.7%	77.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.319	34.9%	7.9%	25.1%	45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.365	0.347	32.8%	8.7%	13.0%	55.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.290	24.6%	8.8%	26.0%	43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2016	9	4.46	3.33	13.4%	10.1%	65.1%	25.9%	21.6%
	2017	18	4.29	4.66	15.9%	6.8%	57.3%	32.2%	17.8%

Richard has an elite ground ball rate and he’s going to need to induce a lot of those to have success in Coors Field. We obviously want nothing to do with him in this start, but the question is whether or not we want to load up on the Rockies against a pitcher with a 57% ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Richard is an easy fade in Coors Field.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2016	29	3.72	4.61	26.0%	8.3%	43.5%	30.6%	17.8%
	2017	5	4.02	3.75	22.6%	8.5%	52.8%	27.4%	20.6%

Gray is one of the most talented pitchers in the slate and he has by far the best matchup. On the season, the Padres are ranked 29th in team wOBA and dead last in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. If you look at their projected lineup below, they have two batters with a .270+ xwOBA, which is downright dreadful. The games in this series have been high scoring so far, but Gray is significantly more talented than German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela. Gray is one of my favorite pitchers in the slate and I will be targeting him in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Gray is pitching in Coors Field, I will be loading up on him in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres see the biggest possible ballpark boost playing in Coors Field, but I’m not a fan of their matchup against Jon Gray. On the season, Gray has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. Meanwhile, the Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball. Even in Coors Field, I will be taking a stand and will be avoiding the Padres in the early slate. The one play that I can potentially get behind is Wil Myers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.286	0.269	0.136	22.7%	3.8%	22.4%	46.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
2	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.305	0.239	0.093	24.4%	6.8%	23.7%	40.0%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,600	SS	$7,200
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.338	0.323	0.209	34.4%	9.3%	25.4%	42.7%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
4	Hector Sanchez	SWITCH	0.338	0.361	0.260	35.2%	7.4%	24.7%	33.3%	C	$3,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
5	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.301	0.264	0.174	33.3%	3.3%	21.5%	44.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	2B	$8,100
6	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.287	0.262	0.107	26.3%	5.2%	21.9%	47.9%	3B	$3,400	3B/OF	$3,900	2B	$7,600
7	Jabari Blash	RIGHT	0.281	0.255	0.106	29.7%	16.0%	35.8%	59.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.286	0.263	0.101	21.5%	8.1%	14.7%	51.4%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,800
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.093	0.115	0.000	0.0%	2.5%	50.0%	66.7%	P	$5,700	P	$4,600	P	$9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total in the early slate and rightly so. They are playing at home in Coors Field and they are facing a pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. Clayton Richard may have an elite ground ball rate, but he has still allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Not only that, but there is a good chance that Richard doesn’t pitch more than four or five innings and then the Rockies would get to feast on a tired Padres’ bullpen.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.383	0.320	0.184	28.5%	5.4%	13.8%	47.5%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,800	CF	$11,400
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.403	0.393	0.174	36.5%	11.5%	11.8%	48.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.414	0.372	0.291	35.4%	11.0%	15.9%	28.3%	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,500	3B	$10,800
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.291	0.282	0.099	29.7%	14.6%	27.9%	50.0%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.352	0.321	0.151	29.9%	5.1%	20.6%	51.6%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.308	0.287	0.113	22.8%	2.7%	19.6%	54.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	LF	$9,300
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.402	0.357	0.310	53.4%	11.7%	35.0%	23.5%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
8	Ryan Hanigan	RIGHT	0.260	0.247	0.122	23.1%	3.8%	21.2%	63.2%	C	$3,000	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.000	0.070	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	64.7%	50.0%	P	$6,500	P	$8,400	P	$16,400

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 19th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Seattle at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Diego at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – GREEN

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