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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 16th

by Travis Mangone (Mangone) Last Updated 2017-07-17 01:46:45

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Detroit
Article Image Marco Estrada Article Image Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-118 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.279 27.7% 8.5% 24.2% 35.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.306 29.6% 9.1% 21.1% 39.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.325 33.8% 9.4% 23.1% 30.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.338 37.1% 6.1% 20.2% 38.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 18 4.22 5.17 24.9% 8.8% 32.1% 30.0% 18.3%

Marco Estrada is a flyball pitcher (47% flyball rate) going up against a Tigers offense that has a ton of power and an implied run total of over 5 runs. I am worried about Estrada here, but there are some numbers that could make him an interesting option. Estrada has a 23.4 K% against a Tigers offense that strikeouts 22% of the time. You can make an argument for either side, but Estrada is a viable SP2 option on DraftKings where his pricetag is only $6,900, especially since Estrada has the highest swinging strike , second outside swing % of his career and third highest K of his 11-year career.

Quick Breakdown: A viable SP2 option on DraftKings that will allow you to get some higher priced bats into your lineup.

Anibal Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 4 4.05 5.89 22.1% 6.5% 36.3% 38.9% 16.6%

Anibal Sanchez has been a gas can and I can’t believe I am saying this, but I sort of believe in what he has been doing recently as he has 22 strikeouts and only 4 walks in his last 4 starts. The reason why is he is throwing his changeup more often and when he gets ahead in the count on batters he is using it as a nice out pitch that teams are struggling against. For only $6900 on DraftKings as an SP2 I am buying because of the lack of SP options available on this slate. A small amount of exposure to Sanchez makes sense against a Blue Jays offense that has a 19.7 K% this year.

Quick Breakdown: As a cheap SP2 I don’t hate going to him as I am buying into this mini resurgence he’s been having (it should continue as long as he keeps using the changeup like he has the last 4 starts).

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.356 0.362 0.206 37.6% 15.9% 21.9% 36.7% OF $3,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.338 0.327 0.173 30.2% 12.7% 25.5% 48.6% C $2,700 C $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.394 0.263 40.2% 14.8% 19.3% 39.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.345 0.370 0.241 39.9% 10.8% 29.7% 30.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.308 0.385 0.193 40.8% 7.8% 20.8% 48.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.328 0.344 0.188 33.9% 7.3% 17.3% 41.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.336 0.342 0.150 30.5% 9.1% 17.9% 45.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.287 0.294 0.115 26.7% 5.1% 15.3% 47.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.260 0.272 0.142 29.4% 7.1% 20.9% 47.5% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,600 N/A N/A

Vegas believes in Toronto as they are opening with a 5.04 run total, so I am curious if they get bet down throughout the day by sharper people. If they believe in Sanchez’s pitching resurgence than I would bet it does. Either way, I think we have better stacks on this slate and I will likely stay away from them. Looking at PlateIQ, I think Morales and Smoak could do well here, so I will look at them as secondary one-off options, but guys like Bautista, Martin and Donaldson I will pass on because they don’t profile well and I have interest in many other options at their positions.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.336 0.324 0.169 34.4% 7.2% 15.2% 33.3% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.376 0.405 0.218 49.0% 17.6% 33.5% 39.7% C $2,600 1B/C $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.340 0.348 0.229 39.7% 9.2% 28.3% 37.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.378 0.448 0.235 42.8% 10.2% 17.1% 41.1% 1B $3,800 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.374 0.397 0.236 41.5% 10.6% 25.5% 43.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.331 0.383 0.170 41.1% 8.4% 14.3% 37.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.348 0.377 0.190 41.7% 7.2% 25.2% 35.6% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.231 0.242 0.083 34.4% 3.9% 35.6% 42.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.271 0.256 0.073 19.0% 4.9% 12.7% 55.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 N/A N/A

Well the Tigers are a team I will only play on DraftKings mainly because they are way too underpriced there. Miguel Cabrera is $3,200 which is crazy and he is an elite play on this slate against a fly ball pitcher. Many other Tigers are interesting as well because of their price tags, so I see them as a good stack on this slate. I also have interest on FanDuel in Alex Avila as a cash game and tournament option as $2600 is just way too cheap and he will likely be batting second, so I want to take advantage of him. Avila has a hard-hit% of 58.1% against righties this year and against a fly ball pitcher this sets up well for Avila.

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera (DK) and Alex Avila (FD)

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW (DK only)

Washington at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Washington Cincinnati
Article Image Tanner Roark Article Image Homer Bailey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-115 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.334 30.8% 10.2% 17.6% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.375 41.9% 10.1% 19.1% 51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.299 21.9% 6.7% 21.2% 54.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.398 0.342 18.2% 6.5% 20.4% 45.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 17 4.66 5.27 18.2% 8.2% 46.2% 29.7% 15.3%

Roark is a better real life pitcher than a fantasy pitcher. He is a guy I never roster and in a matchup against a Reds team that ranks 7th in wOBA, in a hitters ball park, this is a bad idea. Roark does not have enough upside or safety in this matchup for me to consider as an option to roster.

Quick Breakdown: Not enough upside and safety at his pricetag. No exposure for me.

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 4 5.23 8.31 14.0% 10.5% 51.6% 26.6% 12.5%

There is not much to say here, but stay as far away from Homer Bailey as you can. The 8.31 ERA and 5.23 SIERA speak for themselves. Bailey has allowed a wOBA of .386 to righties and .375 to lefties which lines up for a bad outing for Bailey especially facing a powerful Nationals lineup that has a super high total playing in Great American Small Park.

Quick Breakdown: I swear there are good pitchers on this slate, but Homer Bailey is not one of them.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.313 0.294 0.199 33.0% 8.7% 26.6% 47.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
2 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.298 0.277 0.155 39.3% 8.0% 37.0% 44.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,700 LF $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.387 0.397 0.239 34.6% 18.4% 15.4% 39.6% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.326 0.337 0.185 36.3% 5.8% 22.7% 45.9% 1B $3,200 1B $4,400 1B $8,800
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.396 0.251 38.4% 6.9% 8.4% 34.8% 2B $3,800 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.351 0.353 0.196 35.3% 10.0% 17.1% 36.8% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $8,400
7 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.351 0.339 0.232 38.4% 8.8% 20.3% 30.8% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,200 2B $6,000
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.299 0.314 0.156 32.3% 6.2% 18.1% 37.9% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,600
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.181 0.180 0.029 12.5% 2.4% 37.8% 51.4% P $8,800 P $9,400 P $18,000

Homer Bailey is a gas can and even his mother knows it! Bailey has a 5.23 SIERA in 2017 going up against the Nationals who get a park upgrade. This is just going to end poorly for Bailey who will see elite hitters like Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy. The Nationals are also ranked in the top 5 in wOBA and wRC+ this year. The Nationals are always an offense I have interest in especially when they are facing a pitcher like Bailey.

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Drew and Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.253 0.082 18.3% 9.2% 19.9% 47.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.337 0.302 0.182 29.7% 9.0% 16.7% 39.9% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.429 0.439 0.270 39.6% 17.5% 13.9% 36.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,200 1B $8,700
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.336 0.327 0.259 37.1% 5.8% 26.8% 32.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 IF/OF $7,800
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.340 0.342 0.221 37.5% 8.3% 21.9% 48.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $6,900
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.312 0.316 0.152 32.9% 8.9% 24.1% 41.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $6,300
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.288 0.291 0.080 20.4% 1.6% 14.3% 43.7% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,700
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.321 0.337 0.130 31.7% 9.1% 13.9% 43.9% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,400
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.068 0.110 0.032 14.3% 0.0% 38.2% 68.8% P $7,200 P $4,700 P $9,300

There is some sneaky upside here as I could see the Reds roughing up Roark a bit. They have a run total of 4.87 and Roark’s main problems are against the lefties as he allows a .373 wOBA, .205 ISO to them. Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler are all lefties that make for an interesting low-owned stack. You can also mix in some of the righties too because if Roark blows up they will get time against the awful Nationals bullpen. There is one elite play here though and that is Joey Votto who finds himself in a great spot.

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers Miami
Article Image Rich Hill Article Image Chris O’Grady
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.290 24.5% 6.9% 18.6% 51.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.267 12.5% 9.1% 18.2% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.254 0.266 28.9% 9.5% 31.3% 40.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.233 0.239 11.1% 8.3% 16.7% 33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $11,900 Salary: $21,900
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 45.3% 28.3% 22.3%
2017 12 4.20 3.69 27.3% 11.3% 38.4% 27.2% 27.2%

Rich Hill was struggling with a blister all year but has looked good recently and Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts was even letting him pitch deep into games! I am not in love with a 4.20 SIERA this year, but keep in mind this includes the bad starts with the blister. I love seeing an outside swinging strike percentage of 28% along with a K% of 27.3%. These are encouraging signs and I think the right play is to buy low on him on FanDuel rather than paying up for him on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll pass on his price at DraftKings, but for $8,800 on FanDuel he is an interesting tournament play and also worthy of cash game consideration.

Chris O’Grady
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 5.59 5.06 17.4% 8.7% 17.6% 11.8% 23.5%

Chris O’Grady has a FB% of 52.9%in 2017 and a Med-Hit% of 64.7%. O’Grady’s SIERA is 5.58 making him an easy avoid. At the end of the night he might be hanging out at the bar with Homer Bailey talking about how bad their performances were. The Dodgers are swinging hot bats right now and I want to get a piece of this offense on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: If you roster O’Grady, you just might be joining him and Homer Bailey at the bar later tonight with tears in your beers.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.379 0.398 0.198 38.2% 10.2% 21.9% 40.5% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,600
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.343 0.356 0.188 41.7% 8.4% 24.4% 45.2% SS $4,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,800
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.368 0.381 0.209 42.1% 11.4% 14.5% 36.4% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500 3B $9,000
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.369 0.367 0.315 42.6% 8.6% 24.7% 27.8% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.385 0.344 0.180 31.8% 10.1% 26.3% 36.5% OF $3,500 2B/OF $4,000 2B $8,100
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.333 0.336 0.167 33.3% 15.2% 19.6% 55.4% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $7,500
7 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.231 0.268 0.102 27.3% 11.5% 30.1% 49.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.290 0.288 0.156 28.0% 8.4% 17.7% 51.0% OF $2,600 OF $4,200 RF $7,200
9 Brandon McCarthy RIGHT 0.099 0.112 0.000 0.0% 12.5% 62.5% 100.0% P $7,400 P $6,900 P $13,800

The Dodgers offense is in the top five in wOBA, wRC+ and ISO this year. This is an offense that you want exposure to whenever they face a bad pitcher. It is a park downgrade going into Miami, but for a team like this that doesn’t really matter. These Dodgers bats are going to be in consideration for cash games, tournaments and as a stack option against a flyball pitcher in Chris O’Grady. The Dodgers 1-8 will all be on be on my radar, but players like Seager, Turner, Bellinger are in elite spots.

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.271 0.224 0.035 12.2% 2.2% 13.8% 62.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,600
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.407 0.404 0.342 47.4% 14.8% 22.5% 46.5% OF $4,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.304 0.316 0.109 29.0% 5.8% 21.8% 63.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.377 0.398 0.235 45.3% 8.3% 19.1% 39.9% OF $4,000 OF $3,900 LF $8,100
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.380 0.331 0.244 29.5% 8.2% 29.6% 45.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.432 0.387 0.132 33.8% 11.5% 9.8% 43.4% 3B $2,800 3B $2,700 3B $5,200
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.307 0.193 29.6% 7.8% 21.1% 45.2% C $3,100 C $3,000 C $6,800
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.257 0.222 0.054 20.5% 1.7% 22.4% 61.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $6,000
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.035 0.079 0.000 12.5% 4.5% 59.1% 75.0% P $8,200 P $7,100 P $14,000

This is an offense against a good pitcher in Rich Hill that I think we should stay away from. I would not even look at a Stanton or Ozuna one off against a lefty – don’t let the thought that “oh it’s a good right-handed power hitter against a lefty” fool you. Hill is not someone to pick on and there are enough good offenses on the slate where we can just cross Miami off.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Colorado at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Colorado NY Mets
Article Image Jeff Hoffman Article Image Steven Matz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.324 32.6% 8.0% 15.0% 44.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.263 21.0% 5.9% 18.9% 64.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.314 37.2% 9.3% 22.8% 43.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.291 33.2% 5.8% 22.5% 45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Hoffman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 5.22 4.88 15.0% 11.6% 50.0% 34.3% 20.4%
2017 9 4.30 4.15 21.5% 6.9% 39.8% 35.2% 18.2%

Hoffman has been decent this season and gets a park upgrade away from Coors, but a matchup against the Mets is not promising. Hoffman has a 4.30 SIERA and a 35.2 hard-hit% on the season and faces Met’s team that has a ton of power lefties. The key is to look at the numbers against lefties because that’s where we expect a lot of the Met’s production. Hoffman has a K% of 14.4%, FB% of 30.3% and only a ISO of .145. I expect that ISO to normalize and this is a matchup where I think the Mets will do well.

Quick Breakdown: The game logs and upside can look appealing for that price tag, but there are other pitchers I prefer on this slate. Stay away from Hoffman.

Steven Matz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 3.51 3.40 23.6% 5.7% 51.1% 30.4% 21.7%
2017 6 4.96 3.05 14.8% 6.5% 47.1% 29.5% 22.1%

Steven Matz price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings has me interested because of the amount of upside he has here. The Rockies get a huge park downgrade out of Coors Field and have a big drop off in production when facing lefties. Matz’s SIERA at 4.97, 16.1 K% and swinging strike rate of 6.2% on the year have me concerned, but I think for the price tag in this matchup we can use him as a tournament only option.

Quick Breakdown: At his price tag he has some nice tournament upside.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.383 0.320 0.184 28.5% 5.4% 13.8% 47.5% OF $4,100 OF $5,100 CF $10,400
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.403 0.393 0.174 36.5% 11.5% 11.8% 48.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,900 2B $7,500
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.414 0.372 0.291 35.4% 11.0% 15.9% 28.3% 3B $4,000 3B $4,900 3B $10,000
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.302 0.293 0.177 38.7% 2.7% 26.4% 54.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 RF $6,800
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.291 0.282 0.099 29.7% 14.6% 27.9% 50.0% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $8,000
6 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.402 0.357 0.310 53.4% 11.7% 35.0% 23.5% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 SS $6,400
7 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.308 0.287 0.113 22.8% 2.7% 19.6% 54.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 LF $7,600
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.261 0.216 0.051 17.9% 5.9% 25.9% 64.8% C $2,200 C $2,000 C $4,400
9 Jon Gray RIGHT 0.000 0.070 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 64.7% 50.0% P $7,200 P $7,900 P $15,200

The Rockies have been great this season, but Steven Matz is looking healthier than ever and I would be worried about rostering Rockies in this spot. If I had to take any here it would be a one-off righty because Matz gives up more fly balls and higher ISO to right-handed hitters. A player like Trevor Story at a bad SS position or Nolan Arenado who is an elite lefty masher makes some sense, but I wouldn’t go overboard here.

Elite Plays – Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.367 0.366 0.242 43.3% 12.7% 24.0% 36.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 LF $8,000
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.330 0.197 35.6% 7.8% 17.2% 38.4% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,600 SS $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.346 0.353 0.226 38.7% 7.5% 19.3% 36.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,900
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.373 0.366 0.292 41.5% 9.3% 21.1% 35.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,700
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.357 0.390 0.244 40.7% 12.8% 21.7% 30.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,300 1B $6,000
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.376 0.304 0.179 28.7% 3.6% 10.0% 38.6% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,800 3B $7,200
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.278 0.269 0.139 26.0% 7.4% 15.6% 36.7% SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,500 SS $7,200
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.276 0.297 0.127 33.0% 5.7% 17.1% 47.0% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $5,600
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.254 0.247 0.076 26.8% 5.3% 21.1% 57.1% P $10,800 P $11,800 P $22,800

The Mets have the third highest ISO in the league and get a pitcher who struggles to get left-handed hitting out. The Met’s are also an offense that when they are hot you ride them out and when they are cold you attack them. The Met’s have scored 21 runs in their first two games coming back from the break and I think the offensive surge will continue again on Sunday. Mets Manager Terry Collins also said that there is a ton of urgency in this clubhouse and they understand how important these games against Colorado are to gain some ground back in the wildcard race. Either way the lefties like Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Asdrubal Cabrera make for a fine stack on this slate. I didn’t include Yoenis Cespedes because he left yesterday’s game with an injury.

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera and Curtis Granderson

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Arizona Atlanta
Article Image Zack Godley Article Image Jaime Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.310 25.4% 10.3% 20.7% 60.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.284 24.2% 5.1% 23.0% 48.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.307 35.6% 5.4% 20.8% 53.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.316 31.1% 8.9% 18.4% 57.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.16 6.39 17.9% 7.5% 53.8% 32.1% 17.9%
2017 11 3.67 2.58 24.3% 7.8% 59.5% 29.8% 20.8%

Zach Godley has had some elite numbers this year and he is priced up for good reason. Godley has a 3.67 SIERA, swinging strike rate of 14.1%, 24.3 K% and a 59.2% ground ball rate. Those numbers have been great and I want to get exposure to Godley in tournaments on this slate. The numbers don’t lie, but the one concern is that this is a bad pitching park in Atlanta. The good news is Godley pitches in Chase Field which is one of the worst pitcher’s park and is STILL putting up those types of numbers. The Braves also have a 20.4 K% against righties this season. Let others look at a Braves total of 4.44 and be concerned and take a chance at him in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I couldn’t pull the trigger in cash, but I like Godley as a good tournament option.

Jaime Garcia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 4.67 20.2% 7.7% 56.7% 31.1% 18.6%
2017 16 4.62 4.55 17.7% 8.8% 54.3% 27.4% 23.1%

Jaime Garcia is someone that I won’t be rostering as his 4.62 SIERA combined with a 17.7 K% just don’t seem like a good play. There are other options that we can play and I understand Arizona can struggle on the road, but he’s not a viable option for me.

Quick Breakdown: Jaime Garcia is not an option in cash or tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.286 0.259 0.171 26.7% 5.4% 13.5% 53.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.329 0.294 0.202 32.9% 4.0% 20.0% 54.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 RF $8,700
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.401 0.408 0.182 46.0% 19.8% 19.4% 45.3% 1B $4,200 1B $5,200 1B $9,900
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.272 0.280 0.192 29.8% 11.9% 32.9% 57.0% 3B $3,600 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.335 0.287 0.171 27.6% 5.5% 18.5% 43.2% SS $3,100 OF/SS $4,200 IF/OF $7,600
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.304 0.291 0.171 31.7% 3.7% 22.3% 50.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,600 IF/OF $6,900
7 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.270 0.251 0.131 25.4% 9.4% 28.1% 44.1% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 2B $7,800
8 Chris Herrmann LEFT 0.293 0.318 0.109 29.4% 9.8% 23.5% 45.5% C $2,100 C/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
9 Taijuan Walker RIGHT 0.125 0.124 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 50.0% P $7,900 P $6,500 P $12,900

A.J. Pollock screams to me as a great play in cash games and tournaments tomorrow because of everything that he can do in this matchup. We know that Arizona loves to steal and Jaime Garcia has allowed 15 stolen bases in 16 games this year. For only $3400 on FanDuel and $4500 on DraftKings, I love Pollock and also think Paul GOATschmidt against a lefty is another elite option if you can afford him. There could be some other value that pops in this lineup so I will end this ‘Zona bats take by saying keep an eye on where players bat in the lineup as we could get some cheap options towards the top that are viable in cash games and could fit well in a stack with Pollock and Goldschmidt.

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt and AJ Pollock

Secondary Plays – David Peralta

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.295 0.102 25.7% 7.9% 13.5% 43.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 CF $7,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.326 0.307 0.134 28.0% 3.5% 12.1% 47.5% 2B $2,600 2B $3,300 2B $6,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.429 0.429 0.323 42.5% 15.1% 20.9% 28.2% 3B $4,000 1B/3B $5,100 1B $9,600
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.329 0.348 0.207 35.5% 4.9% 24.0% 41.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $6,300
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.340 0.358 0.141 34.1% 11.1% 16.5% 42.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.354 0.358 0.241 39.3% 8.0% 24.1% 33.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 1B $7,800
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.357 0.342 0.153 42.9% 7.7% 25.3% 42.5% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.268 0.292 0.090 30.3% 9.3% 23.7% 50.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,100
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.091 0.133 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 77.3% P $7,400 P $6,600 P $13,200

There is only one bat that I like here against Zach Godley and it is Freddie Freeman because well it’s Freddie Freeman and he facing a righty. In 2017, Freeman has a .491 wOBA and .427 ISO against right handed pitching – those numbers are insane! He is the one guy I would look to roster here in a tournament as a one off because his ownership could be depressed because he’s facing Godley. Other than that, I would stay away from these Braves and would not stack them up.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Mangone
Travis Mangone (Mangone)