MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 7th

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-05-08 01:26:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Miami at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Matt Harvey has been suspended for three days for violating team rules and will miss today’s start. LHP Adam Wilk will start in his place.

Miami						NY Mets
			Jose Urena						Matt Harvey
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-129						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	30.6%	7.1%	10.2%	44.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	33.5%	7.3%	18.1%	32.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	32.0%	7.7%	20.7%	51.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	29.4%	6.5%	16.7%	53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	12	4.66	6.13	15.6%	7.8%	47.7%	32.5%	21.4%
	2017	0	4.44	2.51	13.1%	4.9%	45.8%	24.0%	16.0%

Before we start, I wanted to send out a thank you to Seth Yates for covering for me on the Grind Down last week! This week’s Sunday slate, which earlier in the week was set to feature Clayton Kershaw and James Paxton, has become a bit watered down. But even on a Kershaw-less, Paxton-less Sunday slate, there is still plenty to discuss. Let’s get to it.

Jose Urena is a 25-year-old right-hander who started 12 games for the Marlins last season. If we’re being kind, we’ll say he had mixed results. Despite his mid-90s heater, Urena couldn’t consistently get hitters out, and his walks were a major problem, as well. He’s had better command out of the bullpen this year, and with Wei-Yin Chen and Edinson Volquez on the DL, Miami has decided to give Urena another crack at the rotation. They aren’t doing him any favors, as the Mets present a terrible matchup. Urena has a career 8.9% K rate against lefties, and he’s surrendered 1.27 HR/9 in that split. This could spell doom against the likes of Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and the back-from-the-dead Curtis Granderson. The Mets’ lefty bats have been on fire lately, and they could make it a short outing for Urena. He’s one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: The Mets have put up 19 runs in the first two games of this series. Don’t look for Urena, a converted reliever, to stop the bleeding. Avoid in all formats.

Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	17	4.31	4.86	18.9%	6.2%	40.8%	30.3%	24.3%
	2017	6	4.97	5.14	13.5%	8.8%	48.6%	34.5%	25.7%

Editor’s Note: Matt Harvey has been suspended for three days for violating team rules and will miss today’s start. LHP Adam Wilk will start in his place.

It’s hard to believe that just a few years ago, Matt Harvey was one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. The 2017 version of the Dark Knight ranks 90th out of 100 qualified pitchers with a 7.4% swinging strike rate, and 91st with a 13.5% K rate. In his last three starts, he’s given up almost as many home runs (4) as he has strikeouts (5). In his last two starts, he’s given up 12 earned runs, which is four times as many earned runs as Ervin Santana has allowed over the entire season. So, you get the idea. We need to see Harvey string together at least a few strong outings before we can begin trusting him for DFS purposes.

Quick Breakdown: If he had any other name, we wouldn’t give Harvey a second thought. But this Matt Harvey isn’t the same one who dominated in 2013 and 2015. Not enough strikeout upside for cash or GPPs (which still feels weird to say about Matt Harvey).

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Harvey is no longer a pitcher we need to go out of our way to avoid, this isn’t my favorite spot to target on Sunday, as the 4.08 implied run total is one of the lower totals on the slate. Giancarlo Stanton is always worth a mention as a one-off when he’s going to be low-owned, as he should be on Sunday. Though we prefer him against lefties, Marcell Ozuna is one of the more underrated hitters in baseball. He’s getting the Jay Bruce treatment at DraftKings, as he’s continually underpriced despite the fact that he’s got hits in eight straight games. Other than that, Christian Yelich left Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury and looks unlikely to play, and I’ve got little interest in the Marlins supplementary pieces, making this a stay away for the most part.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

As I mentioned above, Urena has trouble striking out lefties. Since 2016, his strikeout rate against them (10.0%) is less than half of what it is against right-handed batters (20.6%). He also gets more ground balls against righties (43.5% vs. LHB, 51.0% vs. RHB). This makes selecting hitters against Urena fairly easy: target the lefties and fade the righties. Jay Bruce (who is finally priced somewhat fairly at DraftKings), Michael Conforto, and Curtis Granderson can all be considered elite options. Neil Walker has been so bad this year that he can’t be considered anything more than a secondary option, and not one that I’ll be rostering myself. If Jose Reyes is pushed to the top of the lineup with Asdrubal Cabrera being injured, he’s also in play. He’s been seeing the ball well lately, with a .493 wOBA and just a 2.8% K rate since April 27th.

Elite Plays – Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto (DK), Curtis Granderson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (FD), Curtis Granderson (DK), Neil Walker, Jose Reyes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto						Tampa Bay
			Joe Biagini						Alex Cobb
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			TB -140						8.0
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	26.7%	7.2%	25.5%	61.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.460	32.2%	8.1%	12.6%	44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.283	21.0%	5.2%	18.8%	49.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	38.9%	4.2%	17.4%	54.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Biagini
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	0	3.45	3.06	21.0%	6.4%	52.2%	23.0%	17.7%
	2017	0	2.55	3.38	23.9%	4.2%	60.4%	24.5%	22.5%

Joe Biagini was one of the better middle relievers in baseball in 2016, and now, with Mat Latos being designated for assignment, he’s been inserted into the starting rotation. With an above average strikeout rate, great control, and an ability to generate ground balls and limit hard contact, there’s a lot to like in Biagini’s profile. That said, it’s tough to get behind an reliever who is unproven as a starter, and who may be on a pitch count.

Quick Breakdown: While he’s an arm to watch moving forward, a wait-and-see approach is warranted for this middle reliever turned starter.

Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	6	4.33	3.86	15.2%	5.3%	48.7%	40.3%	11.8%

After an excellent 2014, Cobb appeared on the verge of becoming the next in a long line of great homegrown Rays starters. His momentum was derailed by Tommy John surgery, and he’s still working his way back to form. In an average matchup, Cobb would have the ceiling to be useful for DFS purposes. His 15.2% K rate is backed up by an 8.1% swinging strike rate, indicating that for the time being, he’ll remain below average in the strikeout department. He also has an ugly 40.3% hard contact rate, which is the 10th-highest in MLB. However, Vegas is interested, which has me interested…slightly. Toronto has the fourth-lowest implied run total of the entire day, and while he’s still not likely to put up a GPP-winning performance, he does enter consideration as an SP2, albeit one without massive upside.

Quick Breakdown: While Cobb lacks the strikeout upside of Chris Archer and even Jake Odorizzi, the matchup with Toronto and low implied run total earns him SP2 consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Blue Jays offense has started to show signs of life, but on an individual player basis, there just aren’t many bats that are appealing. Switch-hitting Kendrys Morales prefers to bat right-handed, but he homered twice on Friday night and is about all the Jays have to offer in the way of dangerous lefty bats. He’s a good point-per-dollar option at FanDuel. Otherwise, this isn’t an attractive spot to target offense.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Rays have an implied total of 4.23 runs, which isn’t anything special, but against Joe Biagini, who has yet to prove himself as a starter, there are a few viable options, even in the pitcher’s haven of Tropicana Field. I love targeting Corey Dickerson against ground ball pitchers like Biagini; in Dickerson’s career, he has a .338 batting average and .987 OPS against ground ball pitchers, compared with a .260 average and .815 OPS against fly ball pitchers. When he’s got the platoon edge, that’s even better. He won’t likely draw much ownership, which makes him an interesting one-off for GPPs. Evan Longoria doesn’t have the platoon advantage, but at $2,800, he’s just too cheap at FanDuel. The ballpark always makes it tough to stack Rays, but since there’s a chance this turns into a bullpen game, it could be worth a shot if you’re mass multi-entering.

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson (Cash), Evan Longoria (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

St. Louis						Atlanta
			Michael Wacha						R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			STL-112						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	28.1%	8.1%	18.1%	45.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	28.8%	10.3%	15.7%	40.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	29.3%	6.5%	20.6%	45.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	30.5%	7.7%	17.9%	46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,000
	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	24	4.31	5.09	18.8%	7.4%	46.6%	30.0%	18.8%
	2017	5	3.70	3.23	23.0%	5.7%	40.5%	22.1%	22.1%

I’m not sure if it’s my anti-Cardinals bias or my anti-low-strikeout-pitcher bias, but I always have a hard time rostering Michael Wacha, except in the thinnest of slates. The pitching on Sunday’s early slate isn’t exactly terrible, but it’s essentially one great pitcher at the top, and a jumbled mess of mediocrity (at least for DFS purposes) after that. Wacha is a part of that jumbled mess. Surprisingly, a matchup with the Braves isn’t exactly ideal for Wacha, and there are a few red flags we need to be aware of. First, the ballpark: SunTrust Park is quickly gaining the reputation as a band box, particularly for left-handed power. In fact, only Yankee Stadium has a higher home run rating to lefties than SunTrust Park this year (per Baseball Prospectus). However, Wacha has historically shown reverse splits (career .280 wOBA vs. LHB, .322 wOBA vs. RHB), which could neutralize the park factors somewhat. Second, the implied run total is high (4.18), and Wacha is only a slight -112 favorite against R.A. Dickey. On the plus side, Wacha’s 22.1% hard contact rate this year is second-best in MLB behind only Max Scherzer (he’s just ahead of soft contact wizard Dallas Keuchel, at 22.2%). All this adds up to Wacha being a “won’t kill you” type of pitcher, which has value on a slate like this.

Quick Breakdown: Not an ideal spot to use Wacha, but there just aren’t a lot of standout SP2 options. He’s in play as a high-floor, low-upside option in cash games, particularly at DraftKings, where he’s underpriced.

R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		22 of 29	Salary Rank:		22 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	5	4.93	3.94	14.7%	10.1%	51.6%	28.4%	20.0%

Forty-two-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey carries a 4.93 SIERA into a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals, who could be without a number of key bats. Is the Cardinals’ depleted roster enough to make us want to consider a 42-year-old knuckleballer with a 4.93 SIERA? No, it’s not. Dickey has been an steady, effective starter for the Braves this year. But advanced metrics tell us that he’s due for regression. Dickey is an easy fade on Sunday.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

I think someone has put a hex on the Cardinals. In the last few days, they’ve lost Stephen Piscotty, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, and Jose Martinez to injury. If you threw all the currently injured Cardinals and Mets onto one team, you’d have a Wild Card contender. All of these injuries should lead to some much-needed value on Sunday, though, especially given the favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey, who has been equally generous to both righty and lefty bats in recent years. Matt Carpenter is one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s homered in each of the past two games and is an absolute steal at his price at DraftKings. Kolten Wong should bat leadoff again, but DraftKings raised his price $800 since yesterday’s game, making him more of a secondary play. Matt Adams hit his first home run of the year last night. Look out for Adams, Tommy Pham, and Greg Garcia, all of whom could become elite options if they’re batting high in the order. Dickey isn’t a traditional right-hander, but for what it’s worth, Jedd Gyorko has crushed righties this year, posting a .359 ISO against them. The value bats should be somewhat popular, but a Cardinals stack is cheap enough to afford you Chris Sale or some expensive one-offs, should you choose to go that route.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (DK), Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (FD), Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Michael Wacha is a reverse splits pitcher, meaning that, as a right-hander, he tends to be more effective against left-handed batters. While he’s given up a few runs here and there, he’s been elite at limiting hard contact this year, and he was better than average last year. For that reason, the only Atlanta bat I have real interest in is Freddie Freeman. It’s almost never a bad time to roster Freeman, but I love targeting Freeman as a one-off in GPPs on slates that his ownership will be low. Sunday feels like one of those slates, primarily because he’s expensive, and when Coors bats and Chris Sale are on the slate, it’s not easy to click his name. That makes him a great tournament play.

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash)

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET

Chicago White Sox						Baltimore
			Jose Quintana						Chris Tillman
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-125						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	32.3%	5.1%	21.3%	51.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	30.6%	10.4%	22.6%	39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	32.3%	7.1%	22.1%	37.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	32.2%	8.3%	17.1%	42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$18,900
	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		4 of 29	Salary Rank:		4 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.01	3.20	21.6%	6.0%	40.4%	32.7%	18.6%
	2017	6	4.18	4.10	23.4%	10.1%	41.2%	29.8%	17.3%

After scuffling to begin the year, the usually steady Quintana appears to be back on track, striking out 17 batters and allowing just one earned run over his last two starts. Quintana’s platoon split is nearly non-existent (.300 career wOBA versus LHB, .309 versus RHB), which should benefit him in a matchup with a righty-heavy Orioles lineup. The DFS world seems to have caught on to the fact that the Orioles, despite all their power righties, are bad against left-handed pitching, and their 27.3 K% (highest in MLB) and 76 wRC+ (ranked 25th in MLB), gives credence to that narrative. Even so, Baltimore’s 4.40 implied run total (fourth-highest among non-Coors teams) says Quintana is not safe for cash. However, the matchup coupled with his high price tag should lead to depressed ownership, which makes him a fine tournament play,

Quick Breakdown: Probably too risky (and pricey) for cash games, but a very intriguing tournament play given Baltimore’s strikeout woes against southpaws.

Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		10 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%

Chris Tillman was slated to be the Orioles ace, but he missed the first part of the season with a shoulder injury. On Sunday, he makes his 2017 debut in one of the best matchups possible: against the White Sox, who own an MLB-worst 68 wRC+ against right-handed pitching (for those who don’t know wRC+ is a stat that measures a team’s ability to generate runs, where 100 is the rough baseline for a league average team). That’s right…the White Sox have been 32 percent worse than an average team at creating runs against righties this season. In 2016, Tillman had a roughly average strikeout rate, induced a roughly average number of ground balls, allowed roughly average hard contact. Nothing really stands out here, except the matchup. Given that he’s just returning from injury, I’ll forego the positive matchup and wait to see one or two (likely roughly average) starts from Tillman before giving him serious consideration as a DFS option.

Quick Breakdown: Righties against the White Sox is a matchup DFS players will take advantage of all season long. However, Tillman is returning from a shoulder injury, which creates some uncertainty. Maybe worth a tournament dart based on matchup alone.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

As I mentioned above, when facing right-handed pitching, this is a truly abysmal offense. If you’re dying to play somebody from this offense (and I can’t see any scenario where that would actually happen), Jose Abreu has been swinging a hot bat with four extra-base hits in the past three games, and Tim Anderson is a top-of-the-order bat who is underpriced at FanDuel.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson

Stackability – RED

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

When Jose Quintana is at his best, he’s a pitcher we look to avoid, as he rarely gets tagged for more than two or three runs. In fact, his 24 quality starts since 2016 trails only Lester, Bumgarner, Sale, Porcello, Scherzer, and Verlander…not bad company to be in. The 4.40 implied run total here, though, says that we should give some consideration to a few Orioles bats, at least for tournaments. Starting with the righties, Manny Machado has strong numbers against lefties, and if you buy into hot streaks being predictive, he’s homered four times over the past week. He continues to be underpriced at FanDuel. Joey Rickard hits lefties well and makes for a fine value play if he’s atop the Orioles lineup.

Elite Plays – Manny Machado (FD)

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado (DK), Joey Rickard

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Milwaukee						Pittsburgh
			Zach Davies						Tyler Glasnow
			RIGHT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-130						8.5
Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	34.1%	6.3%	18.6%	40.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.379	16.4%	17.5%	21.4%	49.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	34.8%	6.1%	20.1%	48.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	26.0%	10.7%	21.4%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	28	4.06	3.97	19.8%	5.6%	45.5%	33.8%	19.7%
	2017	6	4.75	6.07	17.6%	9.2%	40.6%	37.9%	20.4%

Davies is one of those pitchers who falls under the “better in real life than in DFS” umbrella (and that’s pretty bad, considering he’s got a 6.07 ERA so far this year). He’s still developing, and one day he could become a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Brewers. Unfortunately, his below-average strikeout rate, coupled with the fact that the Pirates strike out at the second-lowest rate against right-handed pitchers this year (16.9%), makes Davies an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: In DFS, we want pitchers who can rack up strikeouts and limit earned runs. Davies has done neither this year. Avoid in all formats.

Tyler Glasnow
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	4	4.46	4.24	22.9%	12.4%	47.6%	27.7%	21.5%
	2017	5	5.27	6.97	20.0%	15.5%	46.4%	15.9%	27.5%

By all accounts, Glasnow is a super-talented young arm that should develop into a front-line starter. But he won’t realize any of that potential until he can improve in three ways. First, he has to show better command and start limiting the free passes; his 15.5% walk rate is third-highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings. Second, he has to do a better job holding baserunners; he’s already allowed eight stolen bases in just over 20 innings this year, tied for the league lead. And third, he has to increase his strikeouts; the strikeout upside Glasnow displayed through each of his stops in the minor leagues – he struck out 30% of batters or more in A, AA, and AAA ball) – has yet to surface at the major league level. While Glasnow hasn’t gotten hit hard, until he improves in those three areas, it’s going to be tough to trust him for DFS purposes.

Quick Breakdown: It’s always dangerous rostering pitchers with high walk rates in DFS. Glasnow’s 15.5% takes “high walk rate” to a new level. Best to wait until he delivers on his potential before giving him consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The absence of Ryan Braun leaves a massive hole in this lineup, but even so, the Brewers make for an interesting under-the-radar stack. WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) is not a stat we reference for DFS that often, but Glasnow’s 2.13 WHIP (most in MLB among pitchers with 20+ innings) says there’s going to be a lot of traffic on the base paths, and the Brewers love to run. Jonathan Villar is one of my favorite plays on the slate; if he reaches base, there’s no way he’s not running. Eric Thames has cooled considerably, but he still possesses an elite batting eye (eighth-lowest chase rate in MLB) and, of course, massive power. Finally, Travis Shaw remains underpriced on DraftKings, though third base is somewhat loaded with options on Sunday.

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Zach Davies has shown reverse splits thus far in his career, but that’s likely a small sample size mirage. PNC Park is not a favorable one for hitters, so we should pick our spots here, but there are a few decent targets on the Pittsburgh side of this game. Josh Harrison should continue to bat leadoff, and he’s doing his best to fill the void left by Starling Marte, with a .393 wOBA and .262 ISO since Marte was suspended on April 18th. Josh Bell hits right-handed pitching well (career .365 wOBA) and continues to be underpriced at both FanDuel and DraftKings. While those are the only bats I would consider for cash games, it’s worth noting that Pittsburgh’s 4.43 implied total is second-highest on the slate among non-Coors teams. Clearly, Vegas has zero confidence in Zach Davies, and given the ballpark and the lack of household names in the Pirates lineup, ownership should be minuscule.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

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