NFL First Look: Week 8 Preview
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
Week 7 Thoughts
— Once a week for 17 weeks just isn’t enough football.
— Aaron Rodgers had a big game against the Bears, but it took 56 attempts to get 326 yards. This offense might be in trouble if they can’t make plays downfield.
— Ka’Deem Carey has outplayed DFS-favorite Jordan Howard in each of the last two games. It’s looking like a timeshare moving forward.
— After Case Keenum threw four picks against the Giants, the Rams need to turn to their number one pick. What are they gaining by playing Keenum?
— The NFC East was supposed to be the laughing stock of the NFL. With the Giants’ win in London, every team in the division is above .500.
— Drew Brees has drastic home/road splits, but in the right matchup he can still be used on the road. Also, Michael Thomas seems to have a bigger role each week.
— The Chiefs are going to be tough to beat at home moving forward. Spencer Ware is a monster and he is allowing the Chiefs to slowly bring back Jamaal Charles.
— We can debate whether or not Andrew Luck is a good real-life quarterback, but he is an awesome fantasy quarterback. Also, Jack Doyle is a thing.
— I’m worried about the Titans’ offense. Marcus Mariota looks flustered too often and DeMarco Murray is only averaging 3.9 YPC in his last four games.
— The Vikings’ defense forced four turnovers and the team only put up ten points. This will be an easy offense to fade on the road moving forward.
— The Eagles are the Spurs of the NFL. We can’t target players against them and we can’t target players on their team. MEH.
— Kevin Hogan (the backup quarterback for the Browns) rushed for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. Keep an eye on the status of Cody Kessler.
— A.J. Green. Wowza. Bam. Kapow. Every time he catches a pass, he should get those cartoon bubbles to pop up like on the old Batman TV show.
— The Redskins’ offense has been much better in the last couple of weeks. I will be keying in on Kirk Cousins moving forward.
— Ford Field (Detroit) is just as fantasy-friendly as the other domes in the NFL, but no one seems to be noticing.
— Keep using tight ends against the Lions. 26-year journeyman, Vernon Davis, caught six balls for 79 yards against them.
— Latavius Murray saw nearly 70% of the running back touches for Oakland this week. It’s promising, but there are still too many mouths to feed in that backfield.
— It’s official – the Jaguars are bad at football. Maybe it’s just Blake Bortles, but it’s going to be tough using anyone from their offense in DFS.
— I’m not an NFL coach, but why did the Bills push Lesean McCoy to play on Sunday? Now it sounds like he aggravated his hamstring injury. What a mess.
— I may have been wrong about Jay Ajayi. We need to give credit to the Dolphins’ offensive line, but what a two-week stretch for Ajayi.
— What do the Jets do now? After Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched, Geno Smith got hurt and Fitzpatrick comes in and leads them to a win over the Ravens.
— As long as Doug Martin is out, keep using Jacquizz Rodgers. As long as Mike Evans has a football uniform on, keep using Mike Evans.
— Yikes, the Niners are bad. I have nothing to say about their offense. But we should continue to stream running backs against their defense.
— The Chargers have had a potential game-winning drive every week this season. They finally won a close one. A big game against Denver looms.
— Julio Jones needs more red zone targets. Three in seven games (which is ranked 148th in the NFL) doesn’t cut it. I don’t care if there are seven people defending him.
— It’s the same every single season – we can’t predict which Patriots’ running back is going to get the bulk of the work. Both are in play for GPPs, but both are risky.
— The Steelers’ offense wasn’t as bad as many predicted, but this is still an avoidable situation until Big Ben comes back.
— People say that good defensive football is fun to watch, but my eyes still hurt from watching the Seahawks/Cardinals game.
— David Johnson is the best running back in the NFL and he is matchup-proof for fantasy purposes.
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | at | Tennessee Titans | TEN-3.5 | 43.0 | Thu, Oct 27 | 8:25 PM | Nissan Stadium |
| Washington Redskins | at | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN-3.0 | 47.5 | Sun, Oct 30 | 9:30 AM | Wembley Stadium |
| Detroit Lions | at | Houston Texans | HOU-2.5 | 45.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | NRG Stadium |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at | Indianapolis Colts | KC -2.5 | 50.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| New England Patriots | at | Buffalo Bills | NE -6.0 | 47.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | Ralph Wilson Stadium |
| New York Jets | at | Cleveland Browns | NYJ-3.0 | 43.5 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | FirstEnergy Stadium |
| Oakland Raiders | at | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -1.5 | 49.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | Raymond James Stadium |
| Seattle Seahawks | at | New Orleans Saints | SEA-2.5 | 48.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 1:00 PM | Superdome |
| San Diego Chargers | at | Denver Broncos | DEN-5.0 | 43.5 | Sun, Oct 30 | 4:05 PM | Sports Authority Field |
| Arizona Cardinals | at | Carolina Panthers | CAR-3.0 | 47.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 4:25 PM | Bank of America Stadium |
| Green Bay Packers | at | Atlanta Falcons | ATL-3.0 | 52.5 | Sun, Oct 30 | 4:25 PM | Georgia Dome |
| Philadelphia Eagles | at | Dallas Cowboys | DAL-4.5 | 43.0 | Sun, Oct 30 | 8:30 PM | AT&T Stadium |
| Minnesota Vikings | at | Chicago Bears | MIN-4.5 | 40.5 | Mon, Oct 31 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups
Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RB (Run) | vs. RB (Pass) | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | -3.0 | 27.8 | Green Bay | 7 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 27 | 12 |
| New England Patriots | -6.0 | 26.5 | at Buffalo | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 31 | 5 | 23 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.5 | 26.3 | at Indianapolis | 31 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 23 | 15 | 32 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -2.5 | 25.3 | at New Orleans | 29 | 28 | 28 | 31 | 7 | 29 | 26 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | 25.3 | Oakland | 28 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -3.0 | 25.3 | Washington | 22 | 12 | 31 | 3 | 22 | 30 | 15 |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.0 | 25.0 | Arizona | 4 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| Green Bay Packers | + 3.0 | 24.8 | at Atlanta | 26 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 16 |
| Denver Broncos | -5.0 | 24.3 | San Diego | 8 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 12 | 8 | 22 |
| Oakland Raiders | + 1.5 | 23.8 | at Tampa Bay | 15 | 17 | 15 | 30 | 11 | 25 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -4.5 | 23.8 | Philadelphia | 1 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 2 | 24 | 2 |
| Houston Texans | -2.5 | 23.8 | Detroit | 32 | 32 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 27 |
| Indianapolis Colts | + 2.5 | 23.8 | Kansas City | 13 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 18 |
| Tennessee Titans | -3.5 | 23.3 | Jacksonville | 11 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 26 | 7 |
| New York Jets | -3.0 | 23.3 | at Cleveland | 30 | 30 | 30 | 18 | 30 | 31 | 30 |
| New Orleans Saints | + 2.5 | 22.8 | Seattle | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 21 | 25 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -4.5 | 22.5 | at Chicago | 19 | 18 | 20 | 11 | 20 | 16 | 19 |
| Washington Redskins | + 3.0 | 22.3 | at Cincinnati | 23 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 6 | 22 | 28 |
| Arizona Cardinals | + 3.0 | 22.0 | at Carolina | 21 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 29 |
| Detroit Lions | + 2.5 | 21.3 | at Houston | 12 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills | + 6.0 | 20.5 | New England | 18 | 25 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 24 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 3.0 | 20.3 | N.Y. Jets | 27 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 32 | 20 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 3.5 | 19.8 | at Tennessee | 17 | 20 | 11 | 29 | 13 | 12 | 17 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | + 4.5 | 19.3 | at Dallas | 20 | 22 | 8 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 31 |
| San Diego Chargers | + 5.0 | 19.3 | at Denver | 5 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | + 4.5 | 18.0 | Minnesota | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 6 |
Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups
Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | QB | RB | WR | TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | -3.0 | 27.8 | Green Bay | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| New England Patriots | -6.0 | 26.5 | at Buffalo | 9 | 21 | 20 | 7 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -2.5 | 26.3 | at Indianapolis | 29 | 32 | 9 | 24 |
| Seattle Seahawks | -2.5 | 25.3 | at New Orleans | 21 | 29 | 23 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.5 | 25.3 | Oakland | 23 | 18 | 26 | 19 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -3.0 | 25.3 | Washington | 7 | 26 | 8 | 17 |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.0 | 25.0 | Arizona | 11 | 3 | 19 | 4 |
| Green Bay Packers | + 3.0 | 24.8 | at Atlanta | 26 | 30 | 9 | 24 |
| Denver Broncos | -5.0 | 24.3 | San Diego | 12 | 28 | 5 | 21 |
| Oakland Raiders | + 1.5 | 23.8 | at Tampa Bay | 16 | 26 | 12 | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | -4.5 | 23.8 | Philadelphia | 2 | 22 | 2 | 3 |
| Houston Texans | -2.5 | 23.8 | Detroit | 31 | 24 | 24 | 28 |
| Indianapolis Colts | + 2.5 | 23.8 | Kansas City | 10 | 15 | 24 | 10 |
| Tennessee Titans | -3.5 | 23.3 | Jacksonville | 13 | 20 | 22 | 2 |
| New York Jets | -3.0 | 23.3 | at Cleveland | 32 | 22 | 28 | 29 |
| New Orleans Saints | + 2.5 | 22.8 | Seattle | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| Minnesota Vikings | -4.5 | 22.5 | at Chicago | 14 | 9 | 30 | 9 |
| Washington Redskins | + 3.0 | 22.3 | at Cincinnati | 30 | 14 | 3 | 32 |
| Arizona Cardinals | + 3.0 | 22.0 | at Carolina | 27 | 5 | 17 | 31 |
| Detroit Lions | + 2.5 | 21.3 | at Houston | 5 | 17 | 7 | 1 |
| Buffalo Bills | + 6.0 | 20.5 | New England | 22 | 7 | 12 | 27 |
| Cleveland Browns | + 3.0 | 20.3 | N.Y. Jets | 28 | 6 | 32 | 26 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | + 3.5 | 19.8 | at Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 16 | 20 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | + 4.5 | 19.3 | at Dallas | 25 | 12 | 15 | 30 |
| San Diego Chargers | + 5.0 | 19.3 | at Denver | 1 | 15 | 1 | 5 |
| Chicago Bears | + 4.5 | 18.0 | Minnesota | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play
| Offense | Matchup | Team Plays PG | Opp. Plays PG | Exp. Plays PG | Plays PG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | Green Bay | 63.6 | 66.5 | 65.0 | 1.5 | 28.3 | 29.3 | 28.8 | 13 |
| New England Patriots | at Buffalo | 63.6 | 58.9 | 61.2 | -2.4 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 30.2 | 4 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at Indianapolis | 63.3 | 67.0 | 65.2 | 1.8 | 31.0 | 30.7 | 30.9 | 7 |
| Seattle Seahawks | at New Orleans | 64.3 | 69.5 | 66.9 | 2.6 | 32.1 | 28.7 | 30.4 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Oakland | 71.0 | 63.1 | 67.1 | -3.9 | 30.6 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 12 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Washington | 64.6 | 63.3 | 63.9 | -0.6 | 29.7 | 31.8 | 30.8 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | Arizona | 68.5 | 71.7 | 70.1 | 1.6 | 31.4 | 30.6 | 31.0 | 10 |
| Green Bay Packers | at Atlanta | 66.5 | 63.6 | 65.0 | -1.5 | 29.3 | 28.3 | 28.8 | 13 |
| Denver Broncos | San Diego | 63.1 | 63.3 | 63.2 | 0.1 | 30.0 | 29.9 | 30.0 | 8 |
| Oakland Raiders | at Tampa Bay | 63.1 | 71.0 | 67.1 | 3.9 | 30.7 | 30.6 | 30.7 | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia | 65.5 | 60.2 | 62.8 | -2.7 | 31.8 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 1 |
| Houston Texans | Detroit | 66.9 | 59.9 | 63.4 | -3.5 | 29.3 | 30.4 | 29.9 | 9 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City | 67.0 | 63.3 | 65.2 | -1.8 | 30.7 | 31.0 | 30.9 | 7 |
| Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville | 63.6 | 62.3 | 63.0 | -0.6 | 33.9 | 29.7 | 31.8 | 3 |
| New York Jets | at Cleveland | 63.4 | 62.4 | 62.9 | -0.5 | 31.4 | 31.2 | 31.3 | 2 |
| New Orleans Saints | Seattle | 69.5 | 64.3 | 66.9 | -2.6 | 28.7 | 32.1 | 30.4 | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | at Chicago | 64.0 | 59.9 | 61.9 | -2.1 | 28.6 | 30.9 | 29.8 | 5 |
| Washington Redskins | at Cincinnati | 63.3 | 64.6 | 63.9 | 0.6 | 31.8 | 29.7 | 30.8 | 6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | at Carolina | 71.7 | 68.5 | 70.1 | -1.6 | 30.6 | 31.4 | 31.0 | 10 |
| Detroit Lions | at Houston | 59.9 | 66.9 | 63.4 | 3.5 | 30.4 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 9 |
| Buffalo Bills | New England | 58.9 | 63.6 | 61.2 | 2.4 | 30.2 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 4 |
| Cleveland Browns | N.Y. Jets | 62.4 | 63.4 | 62.9 | 0.5 | 31.2 | 31.4 | 31.3 | 2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | at Tennessee | 62.3 | 63.6 | 63.0 | 0.6 | 29.7 | 33.9 | 31.8 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | at Dallas | 60.2 | 65.5 | 62.8 | 2.7 | 32.0 | 31.8 | 31.9 | 1 |
| San Diego Chargers | at Denver | 63.3 | 63.1 | 63.2 | -0.1 | 29.9 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 8 |
| Chicago Bears | Minnesota | 59.9 | 64.0 | 61.9 | 2.1 | 30.9 | 28.6 | 29.8 | 5 |
Projected Starters
First Look Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| DVOA | Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking |
| vs. PASS | DVOA pass defense ranking |
| vs. RB (Run) | DVOA ranking against the run |
| vs. RB (Pass) | DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield |
| vs. WR1 | DVOA ranking vs. WR1s |
| vs. WR2 | DVOA ranking vs. WR2s |
| vs. WRTE | DVOA ranking vs. TEs |
| Team Plays PG | Average number of plays ran per game |
| Exp. Plays PG | Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another |
| Plays PG +/- | The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week |
| Team Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran |
| Opp. Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent |
| Game Pace | Projected game pace (the higher the number, the faster the pace) |