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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 13th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-05-14 05:41:19

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Note: Saturday’s game between the Houston Astros @ New York Yankees on the early slate has been postponed due to rain

Houston at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Houston NY Yankees
houstonmlb Mike Fiers nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-140 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.318 33.5% 6.6% 18.3% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.326 28.0% 6.6% 21.6% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.356 37.0% 6.2% 18.9% 41.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.324 30.8% 7.1% 25.9% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.26 4.48 18.5% 5.8% 42.2% 35.3% 17.2%
2017 6 4.47 5.64 19.3% 9.6% 50.0% 35.8% 15.8%

Today we have the usual spread of Saturday games. There are a total of 15 games on the schedule with the first six games making up the early slate and the final nine spit into a late slate. Sadly, all the best pitching options are in the early slate while the late sate is full of not-so-great options. We all have the same player pool and salary cap though. We’ll get through it together.

This season, Mike Fiers has seen his K% remain relatively steady at 19.3% while his BB% has increased to 9.6%. He’s also allowing hard contact at 35.3% on the season. That’s not good against a Yankees offense that is currently sporting a .360 wOBA and 131 wRC+ against RH pitching. In just over 30 innings this season, Fiers has already allowed 14 home runs and 19 earned runs. There’s absolutely nothing to love here other than the Yankees hitters. Despite being a RH pitcher, it is RH batters that give Fiers the most trouble. They are lighting him up for a .507 wOBA this season (60 total RH batters faced) while making hard contact at 45%.

Quick Breakdown: On a slate chalk full of pitching options, Fiers is the second-best pitcher to attack.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 6 2.76 3.40 29.2% 4.6% 50.0% 29.4% 19.6%

Through six starts this season, Luis Severino has looked great. His K% is up to 29.2% while walks are down to 4.6%. Severino is managing the increased strikeout with a swinging strike rate of 10.4% which is up just slightly from his career average. The one knock on Severino is that he’s given up a few too many home runs with a total of seven so far. The rest of the underlying numbers look good here. The big problem is a matchup with the Astros. Houston has the second-lowest K% in the league against RH pitching at 18.3%. They also own a .347 wOBA and a 124 wRC+. With that said, Severino is firmly in play for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: – The matchup is not ideal here but Severino makes sense. His 29.2% K rate this season says he’s an elite arm without the name recognition.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

If you decide to attack Severino, the way to do it would be with RH hitting. He’s allowed a .341 wOBA to RH bats over the past two seasons. Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve best fit that description here. Correa has a .366 wOBA against RH pitching this season. Neither would be any elite play though given Severino’s increased strikeouts this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.337 0.328 0.167 31.0% 11.1% 24.0% 50.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
2 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.331 0.312 0.197 32.2% 5.5% 18.0% 46.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.387 0.369 0.183 32.1% 7.5% 10.0% 43.9% 2B $3,900 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.366 0.372 0.198 38.2% 9.9% 21.2% 48.4% SS $4,100 SS $4,900 SS $9,600
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.336 0.307 0.241 32.9% 8.9% 27.0% 41.1% C $3,400 C $4,000 C $7,800
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.313 0.298 0.167 35.3% 5.5% 20.5% 47.0% 1B $3,200 3B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.335 0.356 0.171 37.4% 11.7% 18.4% 34.9% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.332 0.309 0.172 31.7% 7.7% 21.5% 35.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.242 0.226 0.107 21.7% 4.3% 29.4% 48.1% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees

As I mentioned above, the Yankees are one of the better stacks on the early slate. They’ve been red hot over the past couple weeks. Right-handed batters are generating hard contact at 45% against Fiers this season. Gary Sanchez (.432 wOBA) and Aaron Judge (.384 wOBA) are absolutely smashing RH pitching right now. Even Brett Gardner hits RH pitching well with a .344 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.322 0.137 27.6% 13.1% 17.3% 49.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.432 0.383 0.315 39.3% 8.7% 21.7% 52.9% C $3,500 C $4,600 C $9,000
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.340 0.348 0.193 35.1% 9.8% 19.5% 52.3% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.330 0.312 0.172 30.8% 3.7% 19.0% 49.4% 2B $3,700 2B $4,500 2B $8,400
5 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.332 0.320 0.130 26.8% 10.1% 12.3% 47.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.384 0.378 0.320 46.9% 9.9% 33.7% 39.6% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.302 0.264 0.174 24.6% 3.4% 15.5% 41.8% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.329 0.324 0.162 32.3% 11.2% 25.7% 42.5% 3B $3,200 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
9 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.344 0.312 0.162 23.6% 12.2% 16.7% 47.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,500

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Sanchez and Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
tampabaymlb Blake Snell bostonmlb Chris Sale
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-260 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.301 31.9% 12.4% 26.6% 53.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.218 24.0% 3.2% 31.0% 56.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.332 32.1% 13.1% 21.5% 33.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.293 33.1% 5.4% 27.3% 38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.53 3.54 24.4% 12.7% 36.5% 31.4% 22.2%
2017 7 5.31 3.96 17.7% 13.4% 39.6% 33.6% 18.6%

Blake Snell (L) at Red Sox – Through seven starts this season Blake Snell has seen his K% drop to 17.7% while his BB rate has increased to 13.4%. Right now Snell has a SIERA of 5.31. The biggest reason for the drop in strikeouts is an 8.8% swinging strike rate. Pitching is bad on the early slate but the Red Sox have the lowest K% in the league against LH pitching at 14.2%. This season, Snell seems to be having trouble keeping the ball down against RH hitters with a 42.6% fly ball rate and 34.4% hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: – Blake Snell is struggling to get strikeouts right now and faces a tough Red Sox offense. There are better options on the early slate.

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,800 Salary: $13,100 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 7 2.20 1.92 37.6% 5.7% 39.6% 32.4% 15.7%

Chris Sale is the consensus top option on the early slate. Sale has a ridiculous 37.6% K rate through seven starts. That’s backed up by a 16.5% swinging strike rate which probably isn’t sustainable in the long run. We don’t need Sale for the long run though, just for today. He draws a matchup against a Rays team that leads the league in K% versus LH pitching at 26.7%. Sale already faced this Rays team once this season striking out 12 in seven innings while allowing one run. There isn’t much more to say here. He’s the safest option on the board.

Quick Breakdown: – Chris Sale is far and away the best option on the early slate. Even if we expect his strikeout rate to regress the Rays strikeout more than any other team right now.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have the lowest implied team total on the early slate. Using hitters against Chris Sale almost never pays off, especially the way he’s pitching right now. There isn’t anyone on the Rays that deserves a mention in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.310 0.290 0.116 33.3% 4.5% 27.1% 53.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
2 Brad Miller LEFT 0.306 0.291 0.176 33.3% 9.5% 25.3% 47.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,800 SS $7,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.303 0.338 0.180 33.1% 9.5% 21.6% 36.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.313 0.321 0.108 25.8% 10.6% 22.3% 51.6% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Rickie Weeks RIGHT 0.386 0.410 0.298 50.8% 15.2% 27.7% 38.1% OF $2,400 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.236 0.296 0.143 35.7% 9.6% 30.9% 30.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.328 0.286 0.151 38.3% 7.9% 33.1% 51.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
8 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.308 0.271 0.131 29.8% 10.4% 24.7% 45.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.273 0.316 0.135 41.3% 9.8% 21.5% 31.2% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston

Blake Snell is not the most-exploitable pitcher on the early slate but he does own a .336 wOBA against RH hitting and generates ground balls at just 33.8%. Any of the Red Sox that hit for power are in play here. That starts with Mookie Betts who owns a .325 wOBA and .226 ISO against LH pitching. Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts also fit the mold of RH bats with decent power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.325 0.337 0.226 33.8% 5.7% 9.6% 39.4% OF $4,700 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.351 0.353 0.098 30.7% 14.7% 12.2% 40.4% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.381 0.351 0.162 34.2% 11.7% 16.0% 43.6% SS $3,900 SS $4,900 SS $9,200
4 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.253 0.228 0.020 26.3% 8.6% 25.9% 50.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 LF $8,800
5 Chris Young RIGHT 0.394 0.345 0.225 35.3% 11.8% 20.6% 20.6% P $5,500 P $4,700 LF $6,600
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.352 0.353 0.186 39.0% 8.1% 25.0% 48.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
7 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.373 0.336 0.095 25.0% 12.5% 20.8% 43.8% 3B $2,500 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.437 0.383 0.233 26.3% 10.0% 13.0% 41.3% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.306 0.273 0.126 29.7% 8.2% 24.6% 50.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Seattle at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Seattle Toronto
seattlemlb Ryan Weber torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-178 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.399 33.9% 5.5% 13.7% 44.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.316 34.5% 7.2% 18.4% 59.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.330 30.9% 1.2% 15.5% 56.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.309 28.9% 5.5% 19.5% 59.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Weber
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 3.89 5.45 14.7% 3.2% 50.8% 32.3% 14.2%

The Mariners called up Ryan Weber from Triple A Tacoma. Even though I haven’t seen an official announcement it’s pretty safe to assume they did that in order for him to start today. Weber has been in the Braves minor league system since 2009. He made two major league starts for the Braves last year and pitched some out of the bullpen for a total of 36 innings. He’s not available as an option to use at pitcher and we honestly wouldn’t anyways. He only had a 14.2% K rate last season. Even in the minors he wasn’t a lot better than that. He is a bit of a ground ball pitcher but I’m certainly not scared off the Blue Jays in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Ryan Weber isn’t in the player pool so we obviously can’t use him. The Blue Jays are certainly the top early stack though with the Yankees game getting rained out.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 7 3.88 3.38 16.9% 6.5% 57.6% 31.4% 20.7%

One player who is perennially overpriced in DFS is Marcus Stroman. I’m not sure why people get so excited about a 16.9% K rate and 6.5% BB rate. I suppose maybe it is the elite ground ball rate at 60%. Today, Stroman takes on a Mariners team that is average against RH pitching. They own a 30.4% K rate, .339 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. If anything, you could call those numbers above average. If you look at Stroman’s game log, he had 10 strikeouts against the Rays (who own the worst K% in MLB) and no more than five against anyone else.

Quick Breakdown: – If paying up at pitcher, Chris Sale is the obvious choice. If looking elsewhere I would rather have Severino’s strikeout ability than any safety that Stroman can offer with his ground ball rate.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Given Stroman’s extreme ground ball tendencies this is not the best spot for Seattle bats. Over the past two seasons, LH batters have a .316 wOBA while RH batters have a .312 wOBA. Stacking the Mariners seems unlikely to pay off here and I would honestly keep even one-off plays to a minimum. Anyone you go with here would need to be someone who avoids ground balls like Ben Gamel or Kyle Seager. Neither is a strong play though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.388 0.342 0.185 29.1% 5.0% 12.7% 52.4% SS $3,800 SS $4,400 SS $8,700
2 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.346 0.333 0.134 31.7% 14.0% 26.0% 33.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
3 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.378 0.384 0.240 35.2% 8.8% 24.1% 43.0% OF $4,400 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.377 0.405 0.214 39.6% 12.5% 14.3% 34.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.318 0.320 0.152 30.4% 7.2% 24.2% 42.9% 1B $3,400 1B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.327 0.303 0.070 14.3% 9.9% 15.8% 46.3% OF $3,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
7 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.297 0.319 0.225 37.8% 11.7% 22.6% 35.6% OF $2,900 1B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.290 0.327 0.071 27.9% 10.1% 16.2% 45.3% C $2,200 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.291 0.270 0.093 16.2% 8.0% 12.6% 52.2% OF $3,000 OF $2,900 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

In the early slate it’s going to be bombs away on any Blue Jay that makes the lineup. Weber had a .382 wOBA against LH batters and .354 against RH batters. We can use anyone from either side of the plate. That list would start with Jose Bautista and Steve Pearce but the entire lineup is in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.300 0.289 0.115 26.4% 5.4% 15.3% 48.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.300 0.263 0.115 24.1% 7.3% 22.1% 56.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.344 0.359 0.200 38.5% 17.3% 23.1% 36.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.316 0.336 0.186 41.5% 10.9% 34.7% 29.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.329 0.340 0.163 29.8% 9.1% 17.9% 45.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.258 0.273 0.154 30.1% 7.0% 21.8% 49.0% 2B $2,400 SS $3,000 2B $6,000
7 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.289 0.273 0.102 24.6% 6.1% 17.2% 50.0% SS $2,200 2B/3B $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.326 0.308 0.160 30.5% 5.4% 19.7% 46.3% 2B $2,300 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.217 0.224 0.086 27.9% 4.5% 25.0% 53.2% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista and Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Justin Smoak, and Ezequiel Carrera

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 4:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
cubsmlb Jon Lester stlouismlb Carlos Martinez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-100 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.229 0.264 28.0% 3.7% 25.7% 55.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.322 33.7% 10.9% 20.2% 54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.282 26.3% 7.9% 24.0% 46.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.258 0.251 25.6% 6.3% 25.4% 56.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 7 3.86 3.27 22.9% 9.1% 55.6% 26.3% 18.6%

On the list of pitchers overvalued because of name, Jon Lester comes in right behind Marcus Stroman. Lester is a good real life pitcher with a 55.6% ground ball rate, 22.9% K rate and a slightly elevated 9.1% BB rate. So far this season, Lester has absolutely dominated the 35 LH batters he’s faced with a .187 wOBA. He’s faced 140 RH hitters though who own a .351 wOBA. It will be interesting to see what the Cardinals do but I would expect no more than two LH batters in the lineup today. As far as the matchup goes, the Cardinals own a 20.1% K rate, .337 wOBA and 106 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Jon Lester is an acceptable option but right-handed batters have been giving him trouble this season. Make sure to check the Cardinals lineup if you are leaning towards using Lester in tournaments.

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.97 3.04 21.5% 8.7% 56.4% 29.6% 19.1%
2017 7 3.46 3.86 27.5% 9.3% 50.9% 31.9% 20.4%

The Cardinals elected to skip Michael Wacha in the rotation to build in extra rest. That means Carlos Martinez will draw the start. The Cubs are oddly a slightly below average offense against RH pitching this season. They own a 22.3% K rate, .306 wOBA and 86 wRC+. Carlos Martinez already faced this Cubs offense once on opening day striking out 11 batters. His K rate is up to 27.5% this season but he also has a slightly elevated swinging strike rate of 11.2%. The big issue with Martinez is the same one it has always been. He’s sporting a 9.3% BB rate.

Quick Breakdown: – Even against a Cubs offense that isn’t yet in mid-season form, Carlos Martinez carries quite a bit of risk. He’s the least safe of the expensive options.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Carlos Martinez has pretty drastic splits with a .316 wOBA against LH batters versus .258 against RH batters. He still gets plenty of ground balls at over 54% against each. The Cubs LH bats that can hit for power are the best options here. That would mainly include Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Bryant was a late scratch last night with an illness so if you go that route make sure he’s in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.301 0.336 0.184 31.8% 12.3% 28.1% 46.2% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.349 0.229 37.2% 9.9% 23.0% 31.4% 3B $4,200 3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,600
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.374 0.254 36.7% 11.4% 17.0% 36.2% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.362 0.171 32.8% 15.5% 11.9% 46.6% OF $2,900 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.135 0.172 0.000 37.5% 5.9% 41.2% 62.5% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.330 0.316 0.184 31.7% 10.3% 27.9% 53.4% C $2,900 C $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.311 0.267 0.170 28.7% 1.6% 26.2% 44.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
8 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.080 0.121 0.000 15.4% 0.0% 7.1% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,200 P $8,400
9 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.276 0.085 31.3% 4.8% 18.4% 48.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

St. Louis

Jon Lester has been excellent against RH batters over the past two season with a .287 wOBA. As I mentioned about though, that number has climbed to .351 in a small sample this year. Cardinals RH bats are best deployed as one-off tournament options. The Cardinals don’t really have a RH bat that screams play me though. I suppose the closest we get is Dexter Fowler who owns a .371 wOBA against LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.371 0.357 0.182 34.5% 12.7% 14.5% 51.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.317 0.312 0.212 28.6% 13.2% 40.8% 34.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.351 0.365 0.186 31.1% 13.1% 20.1% 35.7% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.321 0.342 0.173 33.6% 8.8% 18.1% 35.2% 3B $3,700 2B/3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.340 0.339 0.113 29.8% 7.8% 12.6% 48.5% C $3,200 C $3,400 C $6,800
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.308 0.291 0.131 28.6% 9.2% 12.5% 47.1% SS $3,000 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.325 0.323 0.236 37.0% 9.6% 25.6% 31.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.283 0.269 0.074 30.3% 7.4% 18.1% 46.8% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.213 0.250 0.000 30.8% 8.3% 37.5% 50.0% P $8,600 P $6,300 P $12,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Cincinnati at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Cincinnati San Francisco
cincinnatimlb Lisalverto Bonilla sanfranciscomlb Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.584 0.746 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.321 36.4% 7.4% 21.3% 42.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.214 0.173 33.3% 7.1% 42.9% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.326 32.0% 8.9% 20.6% 37.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lisalverto Bonilla
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.05 7.20 27.3% 13.6% 16.7% 41.7% 16.7%

The Reds have opted to change their starting rotation, sending down Rookie Davis and calling up Lisalverto Bonilla. We don’t have much of a sample to work with on Bonilla. He’s been in the minors since 2009. Prior to this season, his only major league action was three starts with the Rangers in 2014. The stats you see above are 22 batters he’s faced out of the bullpen this season. He’s struggled to get LH batters out with zero strikeouts while getting eight of 14 RH batters to whiff. The Giants are a below average offense against RH pitching with a 20.1% K rate, .284 wOBA and 77 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: – Bonilla comes with plenty of question marks. If this were a different slate he would be in play as a punt SP2. There simply isn’t enough expensive hitting to take that risk today though. Bonilla is no better than a tournament long shot.

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.39 4.08 21.2% 8.6% 38.2% 30.8% 15.3%
2017 7 4.54 6.52 18.6% 8.5% 40.0% 43.3% 14.2%

The Reds are not a team I go out of my way to pick on with pitching. Especially not LH pitching. They own a 17.7% K rate (25th) this season. They also have a .334 wOBA and 101 wRC+. Nothing about Matt Moore makes me want to change that today. Moore has an 18.6% K rate and 8.5% BB rate on the season. What really stands out though is 43.3% hard contact (up from 30.3% last season). Moore is allowing 62.5% hard contact to LH batters (only faced 14) which isn’t good when you factor in that the Reds feature Joey Votto and Scott Schebler.

Quick Breakdown: – The Reds simply don’t offer enough of a strikeout upgrade to make it worth taking a shot on Matt Moore.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds and Giants played a 17-inning game that ended late last night. With the quick turnaround today don’t be surprised to see some wacky lineups here. That could potentially open up some value plays here. Our preferred targets here are the Reds LH batters, especially Joey Votto. Moore is allowing 43.3% hard contact to LH batters this season and Votto owns a .379 wOBA against LH pitching. Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez are also in play here based on their ability to hit LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.255 0.253 0.088 16.7% 3.8% 19.6% 45.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.337 0.312 0.240 34.3% 7.7% 16.8% 41.1% SS $3,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.379 0.350 0.188 30.5% 11.3% 21.6% 55.3% 1B $4,500 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.368 0.363 0.291 41.7% 9.8% 24.4% 36.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.383 0.348 0.255 36.5% 11.2% 25.3% 47.7% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.278 0.332 0.176 33.9% 4.1% 16.4% 48.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.320 0.268 0.142 26.7% 10.1% 26.9% 49.3% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.227 0.249 0.083 21.4% 4.9% 27.2% 58.0% C $2,100 C $2,200 C $4,300
9 Scott Feldman RIGHT 0.000 0.241 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 40.0% 0.0% P $7,100 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez and Zack Cozart

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

San Francisco

The Giants have one of the higher implied team totals on the slate. In a small sample, Lisalverto Bonilla is allowing a .584 wOBA to LH batters with 50% hard contact. I wouldn’t be afraid to attack with batters from either side here. The Reds bullpen was already pretty bad and playing 17 innings llast night did not help. Brandon Belt is the top play here as he owns a .373 wOBA against RH pitching. Denard Span is also red hot with a home run in each of the last two games and owns a .338 wOBA against RH pitching. As I mentioned above, there are very likely to be some value plays in this lineup today as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.338 0.340 0.143 25.9% 8.2% 11.4% 49.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.373 0.388 0.208 38.3% 17.4% 23.5% 26.1% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.332 0.320 0.118 28.4% 8.8% 21.6% 58.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.335 0.365 0.137 34.4% 8.6% 11.0% 50.8% C $3,900 1B/C $4,300 C $8,400
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.326 0.333 0.176 33.8% 9.1% 17.4% 42.5% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
6 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.274 0.311 0.229 33.3% 7.9% 28.9% 50.0% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.316 0.287 0.119 25.9% 4.7% 14.3% 51.9% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Joe Panik LEFT 0.316 0.338 0.157 26.5% 10.0% 8.1% 45.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
9 Johnny Cueto RIGHT 0.092 0.148 0.000 4.7% 3.3% 25.0% 73.3% P $9,700 P $11,500 P $22,400

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Denard Span

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Minnesota at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Jose Berrios clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.360 28.9% 13.8% 18.6% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.281 22.9% 13.6% 22.7% 45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.437 0.381 37.9% 11.0% 16.2% 35.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.385 0.369 37.5% 12.5% 20.8% 32.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 5.36 8.02 17.4% 12.5% 38.0% 33.3% 18.2%

Last season Jose Berrios spent part of his time in the minors and part in the majors, making 14 starts. The Twins possibly rushed him along too much as he struggled in the majors. He posted a 17.4% K rate, 12.5% BB rate and a 5.36 SIERA. This season, Berrios has been lighting it up in the minors with a 25.7% K rate and 5.3% BB rate. That earned him the call back to the big leagues. Sadly, he’ll have to face a pretty tough Indians lineup that owns a 22.1% K rate, .339 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against RH pitching. Personally, I need to see Berrios live up to his pedigree in the majors before I’m willing to take a shot. He had a .437 wOBA against RH hitting and .368 wOBA against LH hitting last season.

Quick Breakdown: – It’s best to take a wait-and-see approach with Berrios. He has the ability to be a good pitcher but so far he hasn’t consistently shown that ability in the big leagues.

Mike Clevinger
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,499 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 1 5.46 0.00 23.8% 19.1% 33.3% 33.3% 16.7%

Mike Clevinger will make his second start of the 2017 season. In his first start against the Royals he struck out five in 5.2 innings of work while walking four and allowing zero runs. He’ll face a slightly tougher task against the Twins today. In roughly 58 major league innings Clevinger owns a .385 wOBA against RH hitting compared to .239 against LH hitters. Those numbers will likely normalize but it is at least worth noting that RH hitters are hitting fly balls at 44.8% and generating 37.5% hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: – If you are trying to pay up for bats on the early sate and fit Chris Sale, Mike Clevinger might be worth a look as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Thus far in his major league career Mike Clevinger has pretty extreme splits. He’s allowing a .385 wOBA to RH batting as opposed to .281 against LH batting. He’s getting very few ground balls (32.3%) and allowing 37.5% hard contact to RH batting. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are the top options here. Sano owns a .352 wOBA against RH pitching and is generating hard contact at 42.7%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.356 0.325 0.251 33.3% 9.0% 19.7% 39.2% 2B $4,200 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.339 0.392 0.137 33.4% 14.1% 14.1% 47.4% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.352 0.349 0.241 42.7% 11.9% 36.5% 33.2% 3B $3,800 3B $5,200 IF/OF $10,000
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.321 0.207 34.7% 10.8% 18.8% 44.2% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.299 0.265 34.9% 11.9% 33.1% 32.5% 1B $3,000 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.319 0.287 0.185 33.1% 3.5% 23.5% 44.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.307 0.300 0.104 23.4% 8.2% 13.1% 34.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.327 0.324 0.198 37.0% 12.7% 32.5% 42.2% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.291 0.234 0.183 23.3% 6.2% 36.0% 35.4% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,600

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cleveland

Looking at the surface numbers here it makes sense to stack against Berrios and his 8.02 ERA from last season. Even Vegas somewhat agrees here with the over/under set at nine. If it sounds like the Indians will be highly-owned I would probably look elsewhere. Berrios did look like the real deal in the minors this season with a K rate of 25.3% this season. With that said, I’m not going to say to avoid avoid the Indians in this spot given the other batting matchups on this slate. Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, and Edwin Encarnacion all smash RH pitching. You could even get away with using Michael Brantley or any of the other Indians in the top seven in a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.380 0.406 0.268 38.3% 15.2% 16.2% 36.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.356 0.353 0.171 27.7% 9.2% 12.1% 47.5% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.325 0.350 0.167 42.5% 6.7% 15.4% 46.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.369 0.385 0.259 38.2% 11.1% 21.2% 37.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.340 0.345 0.186 38.6% 9.5% 20.2% 37.4% 2B $3,000 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.362 0.328 0.165 25.4% 8.1% 10.1% 38.5% 3B $3,600 2B/3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.337 0.311 0.168 28.4% 5.2% 16.7% 34.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.207 0.260 0.140 30.2% 4.1% 24.8% 39.6% C $2,900 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.286 0.273 0.113 26.1% 5.0% 20.4% 41.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.