NFL First Look: Week 5 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-10-10 16:05:38

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 4 Thoughts:

— A.J. Green should continue to be a target monster for the Bengals.
— My Jaguars picked up their first win! (and the Colts’ defense is truly awful).
— The Browns’ defense is bad all around, but they allowed 145 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) to the Redskins, who have no ground game to speak of.
— Jimmy Graham is here to stay, back-to-back weeks over 100 yards receiving.
— The Bills are truly a Jekyll and Hyde team, but LeSean McCoy is still one of the best backs in football.
— After being shutout against the Bills, Patriots’ offense will dominate with Tom Brady back in the lineup.
— Julio Jones is not human (300 yards), while Cam Newton is showing signs of being from this planet.
— Derek Carr is one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the NFL. Michael Crabtree is the Raiders’ number one receiver.
— Brian Hoyer should be the Bears’ starter moving forward, even when Jay Cutler returns.
— The Broncos will dominate with anyone under center, their defense is that good.
— The poor Chargers. Injury, after injury, after injury. And they blew a big fourth quarter lead at home.
— Dak Prescott is the real deal (we already knew this). It will be hard for the Cowboys to go back to Tony Romo.
— This Steelers’ offense may be the best in the NFL. They may have the only RB/WR combo that we can pair together on a consistent basis.

As always, feel free to share your best and worst stories of the week by leaving a comment below.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team		Home Team	Vegas Line	Over/Under	Date	Time	Stadium
Arizona Cardinals	at	San Francisco 49ers	ARI-4.0	43.5	Thu, Oct 6	8:25 PM	Levi’s Stadium
Chicago Bears	at	Indianapolis Colts	IND-4.5	47.5	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	Lucas Oil Stadium
Houston Texans	at	Minnesota Vikings	MIN-6.0	40.0	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	U.S. Bank Stadium
New England Patriots	at	Cleveland Browns	NE -10.5	46.5	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	FirstEnergy Stadium
New York Jets	at	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT-7.0	48.0	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	Heinz Field
Philadelphia Eagles	at	Detroit Lions	PHI-3.0	46.0	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	Ford Field
Tennessee Titans	at	Miami Dolphins	MIA-3.5	43.5	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	Sun Life Stadium
Washington Redskins	at	Baltimore Ravens	BAL-3.5	44.5	Sun, Oct 9	1:00 PM	M&T Bank Stadium
Atlanta Falcons	at	Denver Broncos	DEN-5.5	47.0	Sun, Oct 9	4:05 PM	Sports Authority Field
Buffalo Bills	at	Los Angeles Rams	LA -2.5	40.0	Sun, Oct 9	4:25 PM	Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Cincinnati Bengals	at	Dallas Cowboys	CIN-1.0	45.0	Sun, Oct 9	4:25 PM	AT&T Stadium
San Diego Chargers	at	Oakland Raiders	OAK-3.5	50.0	Sun, Oct 9	4:25 PM	O.com Coliseum
New York Giants	at	Green Bay Packers	GB -7.5	48.0	Sun, Oct 9	8:30 PM	Lambeau Field
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at	Carolina Panthers	TBD	TBD	Mon, Oct 10	8:30 PM	Bank of America Stadium

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Offense	Matchup	Spread	Team Total	DVOA	vs. PASS	vs. RB (Run)	vs. RB (Pass)	vs. WR1	vs. WR2	vs. TE
New England Patriots	at Cleveland	-10.5	28.5	29	21	28	21	30	21	28
Green Bay Packers	N.Y. Giants	-7.5	27.8	19	23	5	11	8	29	12
Pittsburgh Steelers	N.Y. Jets	-7.0	27.5	25	31	3	27	14	30	25
Oakland Raiders	San Diego	-3.5	26.8	23	13	21	25	28	5	20
Denver Broncos	Atlanta	-5.5	26.3	31	30	25	31	13	15	23
Indianapolis Colts	Chicago	-4.5	26.0	20	12	20	10	12	11	22
Philadelphia Eagles	at Detroit	-3.0	24.5	32	32	31	22	22	22	29
Baltimore Ravens	Washington	-3.5	24.0	26	18	32	7	23	32	10
Arizona Cardinals	at San Francisco	-4.0	23.8	21	16	19	6	32	6	5
Miami Dolphins	Tennessee	-3.5	23.5	16	14	17	13	7	9	14
San Diego Chargers	at Oakland	+ 3.5	23.3	27	28	29	24	26	19	21
Cincinnati Bengals	at Dallas	-1.0	23.0	22	24	16	16	9	2	31
Minnesota Vikings	Houston	-6.0	23.0	11	5	30	19	10	3	1
Dallas Cowboys	Cincinnati	+ 1.0	22.0	9	10	9	28	1	20	18
Detroit Lions	Philadelphia	+ 3.0	21.5	6	1	10	17	3	4	2
Chicago Bears	at Indianapolis	+ 4.5	21.5	28	29	26	30	16	14	32
Los Angeles Rams	Buffalo	-2.5	21.3	14	15	14	15	24	12	26
Atlanta Falcons	at Denver	+ 5.5	20.8	2	3	23	18	2	17	13
New York Jets	at Pittsburgh	+ 7.0	20.5	15	17	8	14	19	25	4
Washington Redskins	at Baltimore	+ 3.5	20.5	4	9	1	3	27	13	3
New York Giants	at Green Bay	+ 7.5	20.3	13	22	2	12	31	31	19
Tennessee Titans	at Miami	+ 3.5	20.0	17	20	12	5	29	8	30
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona	+ 4.0	19.8	5	6	13	4	15	7	8
Buffalo Bills	at Los Angeles	+ 2.5	18.8	7	11	15	8	21	26	11
Cleveland Browns	New England	+ 10.5	18.0	24	26	18	23	17	18	24
Houston Texans	at Minnesota	+ 6.0	17.0	3	4	4	20	4	10	17
Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay	TBD	TBD	18	27	11	29	18	23	6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at Carolina	TBD	TBD	12	19	7	9	25	1	27

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Offense	Matchup	Team PPG	Opp. PPG	Exp. PPG	PPG +/-	Team Pace	Opp. Pace	Exp. Pace	Game Pace
New England Patriots	at Cleveland	90.3	84.0	87.2	-3.2	31.2	29.9	30.6	6
Green Bay Packers	N.Y. Giants	81.0	89.3	85.2	4.2	29.4	28.6	29.0	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	N.Y. Jets	87.0	95.0	91.0	4.0	28.4	31.2	29.8	10
Oakland Raiders	San Diego	91.0	90.3	90.7	-0.3	31.4	29.0	30.2	7
Denver Broncos	Atlanta	89.3	86.7	88.0	-1.3	29.1	29.4	29.3	12
Indianapolis Colts	Chicago	97.3	80.7	89.0	-8.3	31.1	31.7	31.4	2
Philadelphia Eagles	at Detroit	93.0	91.7	92.3	-0.7	31.8	28.3	30.1	9
Baltimore Ravens	Washington	99.7	86.0	92.8	-6.8	31.0	30.6	30.8	5
Arizona Cardinals	at San Francisco	95.3	85.3	90.3	-5.0	28.5	25.5	27.0	14
Miami Dolphins	Tennessee	76.7	89.0	82.8	6.2	30.5	34.1	32.3	1
San Diego Chargers	at Oakland	90.3	91.0	90.7	0.3	29.0	31.4	30.2	7
Cincinnati Bengals	at Dallas	90.0	96.3	93.2	3.2	30.1	31.6	30.9	4
Minnesota Vikings	Houston	83.0	94.0	88.5	5.5	29.2	30.0	29.6	11
Dallas Cowboys	Cincinnati	96.3	90.0	93.2	-3.2	31.6	30.1	30.9	4
Detroit Lions	Philadelphia	91.7	93.0	92.3	0.7	28.3	31.8	30.1	9
Chicago Bears	at Indianapolis	80.7	97.3	89.0	8.3	31.7	31.1	31.4	2
Los Angeles Rams	Buffalo	82.3	81.3	81.8	-0.5	29.8	30.5	30.2	8
Atlanta Falcons	at Denver	86.7	89.3	88.0	1.3	29.4	29.1	29.3	12
New York Jets	at Pittsburgh	95.0	87.0	91.0	-4.0	31.2	28.4	29.8	10
Washington Redskins	at Baltimore	86.0	99.7	92.8	6.8	30.6	31.0	30.8	5
New York Giants	at Green Bay	89.3	81.0	85.2	-4.2	28.6	29.4	29.0	13
Tennessee Titans	at Miami	89.0	76.7	82.8	-6.2	34.1	30.5	32.3	1
San Francisco 49ers	Arizona	85.3	95.3	90.3	5.0	25.5	28.5	27.0	14
Buffalo Bills	at Los Angeles	81.3	82.3	81.8	0.5	30.5	29.8	30.2	8
Cleveland Browns	New England	84.0	90.3	87.2	3.2	29.9	31.2	30.6	6
Houston Texans	at Minnesota	94.0	83.0	88.5	-5.5	30.0	29.2	29.6	11
Carolina Panthers	Tampa Bay	103.0	101.3	102.2	-0.8	32.6	30.0	31.3	3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at Carolina	101.3	103.0	102.2	0.8	30.0	32.6	31.3	3

Projected Starters

Team	QB	RB	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	K
New England Patriots	Tom Brady	LeGarrette Blount	Julian Edelman	Danny Amendola	Chris Hogan	Rob Gronkowski	Stephen Gostkowski
Green Bay Packers	Aaron Rodgers	Eddie Lacy	Jordy Nelson	Randall Cobb	Davante Adams	Richard Rodgers	Mason Crosby
Pittsburgh Steelers	Ben Roethlisberger	Le’Veon Bell	Antonio Brown	Markus Wheaton	Sammie Coates	Jesse James	Chris Boswell
Oakland Raiders	Derek Carr	Latavius Murray	Amari Cooper	Michael Crabtree	Seth Roberts	Lee Smith	Sebastian Janikowski
Denver Broncos	Trevor Siemian	C.J. Anderson	Demaryius Thomas	Emmanuel Sanders	Bennie Fowler	Virgil Green	Brandon McManus
Indianapolis Colts	Andrew Luck	Frank Gore	T.Y. Hilton	Phillip Dorsett	Quan Bray	Dwayne Allen	Adam Vinatieri
Philadelphia Eagles	Carson Wentz	Ryan Mathews	Jordan Matthews	Nelson Agholor	Dorial Green-Beckham	Zach Ertz	Caleb Sturgis
Baltimore Ravens	Joe Flacco	Terrance West	Mike Wallace	Steve Smith	Kamar Aiken	Dennis Pitta	Justin Tucker
Arizona Cardinals	Carson Palmer	David Johnson	Larry Fitzgerald	Michael Floyd	John Brown	Darren Fells	Chandler Catanzaro
Miami Dolphins	Ryan Tannehill	Arian Foster	Jarvis Landry	DeVante Parker	Kenny Stills	Jordan Cameron	Andrew Franks
San Diego Chargers	Philip Rivers	Melvin Gordon	Travis Benjamin	Dontrelle Inman	Tyrell Williams	Antonio Gates	Josh Lambo
Cincinnati Bengals	Andy Dalton	Jeremy Hill	A.J. Green	Brandon LaFell	Tyler Boyd	Tyler Eifert	Mike Nugent
Minnesota Vikings	Sam Bradford	Jerick McKinnon	Stefon Diggs	Charles Johnson	Adam Thielen	Kyle Rudolph	Blair Walsh
Dallas Cowboys	Dak Prescott	Ezekiel Elliott	Dez Bryant	Terrance Williams	Cole Beasley	Jason Witten	Dan Bailey
Detroit Lions	Matthew Stafford	Theo Riddick	Golden Tate	Marvin Jones	Anquan Boldin	Eric Ebron	Matt Prater
Chicago Bears	Jay Cutler	Jeremy Langford	Alshon Jeffery	Kevin White	Eddie Royal	Zach Miller	Connor Barth
Los Angeles Rams	Case Keenum	Todd Gurley	Kenny Britt	Tavon Austin	Brian Quick	Lance Kendricks	Greg Zuerlein
Atlanta Falcons	Matt Ryan	Devonta Freeman	Julio Jones	Mohamed Sanu	Justin Hardy	Jacob Tamme	Matt Bryant
New York Jets	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Matt Forte	Brandon Marshall	Eric Decker	Quincy Enunwa	Kellen Davis	Nick Folk
Washington Redskins	Kirk Cousins	Matt Jones	DeSean Jackson	Pierre Garcon	Jamison Crowder	Jordan Reed	Dustin Hopkins
New York Giants	Eli Manning	Rashad Jennings	Odell Beckham Jr.	Sterling Shepard	Victor Cruz	Larry Donnell	Josh Brown
Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota	DeMarco Murray	Rishard Matthews	Tajae Sharpe	Kendall Wright	Delanie Walker	Ryan Succop
San Francisco 49ers	Blaine Gabbert	Carlos Hyde	Torrey Smith	Quinton Patton	Jeremy Kerley	Vance McDonald	Phil Dawson
Buffalo Bills	Tyrod Taylor	LeSean McCoy	Robert Woods	Greg Salas	Marquise Goodwin	Charles Clay	Dan Carpenter
Cleveland Browns	Cody Kessler	Isaiah Crowell	Terrelle Pryor	Andrew Hawkins	Ricardo Louis	Gary Barnidge	Cody Parkey
Houston Texans	Brock Osweiler	Lamar Miller	DeAndre Hopkins	Will Fuller	Braxton Miller	C.J. Fiedorowicz	Nick Novak
Carolina Panthers	Cam Newton	Jonathan Stewart	Kelvin Benjamin	Ted Ginn	Devin Funchess	Greg Olsen	Graham Gano
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston	Doug Martin	Mike Evans	Vincent Jackson	Adam Humphries	Cameron Brate	Roberto Aguayo

First Look Legend

Term	Description
DVOA	Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking
vs. PASS	DVOA pass defense ranking
vs. RB (Run)	DVOA ranking against the run
vs. RB (Pass)	DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield
vs. WR1	DVOA ranking vs. WR1s
vs. WR2	DVOA ranking vs. WR2s
vs. WRTE	DVOA ranking vs. TEs
Exp. PPG	Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another
Team PPG	Average number of plays ran per game
PPG +/-	The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week
Team Pace	Situation-adj average seconds per play ran
Opp. Pace	Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent
Game Pace	Projected game pace (16 being the fastest)