NFL First Look: Week 4 Preview
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, and a list of projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
In an effort to kick start your research as quickly as possible, the NFL First Look will now be published on Mondays (typically by 2 PM ET). The only drawback is that the statistics and starters won’t be updated for the current week, but we will update those as the information becomes available.
Hopefully everyone had a great Week 3 and somehow managed to avoid all of the landmines in the player pool. I ended up having a killer week on DraftKings and a slightly losing week on FanDuel. Once again, it appears that this is a great week to pay down at running back. There are injuries impacting the backfields of a number of teams. As I mention in my RotoAcademy Course, finding value at quarterback and running back is paramount in order to spend up on the more volatile wide receiver position.
As always, feel free to share your successes and/or failures from Week 3 in the comment section below!
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | at | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN-7.5 | 46.5 | Thu, Sep 29 | 8:25 PM | Paul Brown Stadium |
| Indianapolis Colts | at | Jacksonville Jaguars | IND-2.5 | 48.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 9:30 AM | Wembley Stadium (London) |
| Buffalo Bills | at | New England Patriots | TBD | TBD | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | Gillette Stadium |
| Carolina Panthers | at | Atlanta Falcons | CAR-3.0 | 50.0 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | Georgia Dome |
| Cleveland Browns | at | Washington Redskins | WAS-7.5 | 46.0 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | FedEx Field |
| Detroit Lions | at | Chicago Bears | DET-2.5 | 47.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | Soldier Field |
| Oakland Raiders | at | Baltimore Ravens | BAL-3.5 | 46.0 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | M&T Bank Stadium |
| Seattle Seahawks | at | New York Jets | SEA-2.5 | 40.0 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium |
| Tennessee Titans | at | Houston Texans | HOU-4.5 | 40.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 1:00 PM | NRG Stadium |
| Denver Broncos | at | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DEN-3.0 | 43.0 | Sun, Oct 2 | 4:05 PM | Raymond James Stadium |
| Dallas Cowboys | at | San Francisco 49ers | DAL-2.0 | 45.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 4:25 PM | Levi’s Stadium |
| Los Angeles Rams | at | Arizona Cardinals | ARI-7.5 | 42.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 4:25 PM | University of Phoenix Stadium |
| New Orleans Saints | at | San Diego Chargers | SD -4.0 | 53.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 4:25 PM | Qualcomm Stadium |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at | Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT-4.5 | 47.5 | Sun, Oct 2 | 8:30 PM | Heinz Field |
| New York Giants | at | Minnesota Vikings | MIN-5.0 | 43.5 | Mon, Oct 3 | 8:30 PM | TCF Bank Stadium |
| Offense | Matchup | Spread | Team Total | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RB (Run) | vs. RB (Pass) | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Chargers | New Orleans | -4.0 | 28.8 | 31 | 27 | 31 | 32 | 9 | 30 | 15 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Miami | -7.5 | 27.0 | 21 | 15 | 20 | 7 | 21 | 12 | 30 |
| Washington Redskins | Cleveland | -7.5 | 26.8 | 26 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 27 | 19 | 22 |
| Carolina Panthers | at Atlanta | -3.0 | 26.5 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 | 11 | 10 | 29 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Kansas City | -4.5 | 26.0 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 12 |
| Indianapolis Colts | at Jacksonville | -2.5 | 25.5 | 14 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 13 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles | -7.5 | 25.0 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | at Chicago | -2.5 | 25.0 | 28 | 26 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 28 | 28 |
| New Orleans Saints | at San Diego | + 4.0 | 24.8 | 24 | 14 | 23 | 22 | 29 | 17 | 24 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Oakland | -3.5 | 24.8 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 31 | 11 | 23 |
| Minnesota Vikings | N.Y. Giants | -5.0 | 24.3 | 17 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 27 | 8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | at San Francisco | -2.0 | 23.8 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Carolina | + 3.0 | 23.5 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 25 |
| Denver Broncos | at Tampa Bay | -3.0 | 23.0 | 18 | 25 | 11 | 31 | 16 | 16 | 5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis | + 2.5 | 23.0 | 29 | 29 | 25 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 32 |
| Houston Texans | Tennessee | -4.5 | 22.5 | 22 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 25 | 6 | 9 |
| Chicago Bears | Detroit | + 2.5 | 22.5 | 30 | 32 | 27 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 27 |
| San Francisco 49ers | Dallas | + 2.0 | 21.8 | 20 | 23 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 3 | 31 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at Pittsburgh | + 4.5 | 21.5 | 23 | 24 | 15 | 30 | 19 | 24 | 6 |
| Seattle Seahawks | at N.Y. Jets | -2.5 | 21.3 | 19 | 30 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 32 | 19 |
| Oakland Raiders | at Baltimore | + 3.5 | 21.3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 5 | 7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Denver | + 3.0 | 20.0 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 25 | 3 | 14 | 17 |
| Miami Dolphins | at Cincinnati | + 7.5 | 19.5 | 13 | 19 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 23 | 26 |
| New York Giants | at Minnesota | + 5.0 | 19.3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| Cleveland Browns | at Washington | + 7.5 | 19.3 | 25 | 16 | 32 | 5 | 28 | 31 | 1 |
| New York Jets | Seattle | + 2.5 | 18.8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| Tennessee Titans | at Houston | + 4.5 | 18.0 | 10 | 7 | 22 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 2 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at Arizona | + 7.5 | 17.5 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 10 |
| Buffalo Bills | at New England | TBD | TBD | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 8 | 20 | 21 |
| New England Patriots | Buffalo | TBD | TBD | 15 | 11 | 21 | 13 | 22 | 15 | 14 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play (Updated Through Week 3)
| Offense | Matchup | Team PPG | Opp. PPG | Exp. PPG | PPG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Proj. Game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Chargers | New Orleans | 67.0 | 70.7 | 68.8 | 1.8 | 30.0 | 28.8 | 29.4 | 10 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Miami | 66.7 | 61.7 | 64.2 | -2.5 | 29.5 | 30.8 | 30.2 | 7 |
| Washington Redskins | Cleveland | 65.3 | 60.3 | 62.8 | -2.5 | 28.7 | 30.1 | 29.4 | 10 |
| Carolina Panthers | at Atlanta | 77.7 | 64.3 | 71.0 | -6.7 | 32.6 | 27.8 | 30.2 | 6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Kansas City | 67.3 | 66.0 | 66.7 | -0.7 | 28.1 | 29.5 | 28.8 | 13 |
| Indianapolis Colts | at Jacksonville | 71.3 | 68.0 | 69.7 | -1.7 | 30.9 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles | 69.7 | 62.7 | 66.2 | -3.5 | 28.1 | 29.1 | 28.6 | 14 |
| Detroit Lions | at Chicago | 70.7 | 57.7 | 64.2 | -6.5 | 27.7 | 31.9 | 29.8 | 8 |
| New Orleans Saints | at San Diego | 70.7 | 67.0 | 68.8 | -1.8 | 28.8 | 30.0 | 29.4 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Oakland | 70.0 | 71.0 | 70.5 | 0.5 | 31.3 | 31.5 | 31.4 | 3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | N.Y. Giants | 58.3 | 67.3 | 62.8 | 4.5 | 29.5 | 28.3 | 28.9 | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | at San Francisco | 71.0 | 67.7 | 69.3 | -1.7 | 30.9 | 24.9 | 27.9 | 15 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Carolina | 64.3 | 77.7 | 71.0 | 6.7 | 27.8 | 32.6 | 30.2 | 6 |
| Denver Broncos | at Tampa Bay | 65.3 | 77.7 | 71.5 | 6.2 | 29.0 | 30.0 | 29.5 | 9 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis | 68.0 | 71.3 | 69.7 | 1.7 | 29.6 | 30.9 | 30.3 | 5 |
| Houston Texans | Tennessee | 72.7 | 67.0 | 69.8 | -2.8 | 30.6 | 33.5 | 32.1 | 1 |
| Chicago Bears | Detroit | 57.7 | 70.7 | 64.2 | 6.5 | 31.9 | 27.7 | 29.8 | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | Dallas | 67.7 | 71.0 | 69.3 | 1.7 | 24.9 | 30.9 | 27.9 | 15 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | at Pittsburgh | 66.0 | 67.3 | 66.7 | 0.7 | 29.5 | 28.1 | 28.8 | 13 |
| Seattle Seahawks | at N.Y. Jets | 73.0 | 71.3 | 72.2 | -0.8 | 33.1 | 30.8 | 32.0 | 2 |
| Oakland Raiders | at Baltimore | 71.0 | 70.0 | 70.5 | -0.5 | 31.5 | 31.3 | 31.4 | 3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Denver | 77.7 | 65.3 | 71.5 | -6.2 | 30.0 | 29.0 | 29.5 | 9 |
| Miami Dolphins | at Cincinnati | 61.7 | 66.7 | 64.2 | 2.5 | 30.8 | 29.5 | 30.2 | 7 |
| New York Giants | at Minnesota | 67.3 | 58.3 | 62.8 | -4.5 | 28.3 | 29.5 | 28.9 | 12 |
| Cleveland Browns | at Washington | 60.3 | 65.3 | 62.8 | 2.5 | 30.1 | 28.7 | 29.4 | 10 |
| New York Jets | Seattle | 71.3 | 73.0 | 72.2 | 0.8 | 30.8 | 33.1 | 32.0 | 2 |
| Tennessee Titans | at Houston | 67.0 | 72.7 | 69.8 | 2.8 | 33.5 | 30.6 | 32.1 | 1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at Arizona | 62.7 | 69.7 | 66.2 | 3.5 | 29.1 | 28.1 | 28.6 | 14 |
| Buffalo Bills | at New England | 56.0 | 71.7 | 63.8 | 7.8 | 31.5 | 30.4 | 31.0 | 4 |
| New England Patriots | Buffalo | 71.7 | 56.0 | 63.8 | -7.8 | 30.4 | 31.5 | 31.0 | 4 |
Projected Starters
First Look Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| DVOA | Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking |
| vs. PASS | DVOA pass defense ranking |
| vs. RB (Run) | DVOA ranking against the run |
| vs. RB (Pass) | DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield |
| vs. WR1 | DVOA ranking vs. WR1s |
| vs. WR2 | DVOA ranking vs. WR2s |
| vs. WRTE | DVOA ranking vs. TEs |
| Exp. PPG | Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another |
| Team PPG | Average number of plays ran per game |
| PPG +/- | The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week |
| Team Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran |
| Opp. Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent |
| Proj. Game Pace | Projected game pace (16 being the fastest) |