NFL First Look: Week 7 Preview

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 6 Thoughts

— I honestly can’t believe it has already been six weeks. It feels like the season just started.
— Thursday Night Football is painful to watch. It continues to be a great fade if you play the Thu-Mon slates.
— The Chargers finally held on to a lead. They could easily be leading the division right now.
— The C.J. Anderson / Devontae Booker timeshare is concerning. I’m giving Anderson a slight downgrade moving forward.
— How scary was that LeSean McCoy injury? Niners continue to be one of the best defenses to target running backs against.
Colin Kaepernick didn’t look terrible against a quality opponent in the Bills. He makes an intriguing GPP play moving forward.
— The Eagles “are who we thought they were!” They spread the ball out too much in the passing game and have too many RBs.
Terrelle Pryor has exceeded everyone’s expectations. He deserves recognition as a viable fantasy option each week.
Marcus Mariota has had two great games in a row, but DeMarco Murray is still the top fantasy target in the Titans’ offense.
Odell Beckham is having fun again. He went bonkers with over 200 yards and two touchdowns and he’s getting along with the net.
— The Panthers/Saints game confirmed what we already knew – anyone and everyone is in play in the Superdome.
— The Panthers are in deep trouble at 1-5. The fact that they are 0-3 in the division makes it even worse.
Drew Brees at home = fantasy goodness. Drew Brees on the road = fantasy fadeness.
— My Jaguars have won two in a row. They aren’t going anywhere if Blake Bortles doesn’t improve, though.
Cameron Meredith is not a flash in the pan. He followed up his big Week 5 with 11 receptions for 113 yards.
— I fell for the old Tavon Austin trap this week. The Rams’ offense is just too inconsistent to use in cash games.
Golden Tate is back. He looked explosive against the Rams, albeit they were missing their best cornerback, Trumaine Johnson.
— We never want to see star players get injured. The Steelers’ offense could be in trouble without Ben Roethlisberger.
Jay Ajayi rushed for 10,000 yards on Sunday (it was actually 204). Get ready for high ownership this week against the Bills.
— The Patriots arguably have the best offense in the NFL. Tom Brady is the number one fantasy quarterback moving forward.
Jamaal Charles looked good against the Raiders. His snap count and touch rate is only going to increase.
Amari Cooper has reclaimed the number one receiver spot in the Raiders’ offense. He could honestly have eight touchdowns.
— The Falcons lost a tough game against the Seahawks, but their offense is for real.
Christine Michael and Jimmy Graham are seeing the snaps and workload and both are delivering.
— There is no way the Cowboys can go back to Tony Romo, right? RIGHT? Ezekiel Elliott is a monster that loves eating from a bowl.
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t looked good this season. Luckily, he has a get right spot against the Bears in Week 7.
— How on earth did the Colts lose that game? With that bad offensive line, they continue to be a great team to stream defenses against.
FINALLY! I’ve been waiting for the Lamar Miller breakout game all year. I know it was against the Colts, but he looked great.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Road Team Home Team Vegas Line Over/Under Date Time Stadium
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers GB -8.5 46.0 Thu, Oct 20 8:25 PM Lambeau Field
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams NYG-2.5 43.5 Sun, Oct 23 9:30 AM Twickenham Stadium
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets NYJ-1.0 41.5 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM MetLife Stadium
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins BUF-2.5 44.0 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Sun Life Stadium
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals CIN-10.0 45.5 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Paul Brown Stadium
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans TEN-2.5 47.5 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Nissan Stadium
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles MIN-2.5 40.0 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs KC -6.5 50.0 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Arrowhead Stadium
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars JAC-1.5 48.5 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM EverBank Field
Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions DET-1.0 48.5 Sun, Oct 23 1:00 PM Ford Field
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons ATL-6.5 53.0 Sun, Oct 23 4:05 PM Georgia Dome
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers TB -2.0 47.0 Sun, Oct 23 4:05 PM Levi’s Stadium
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers NE -7.0 45.5 Sun, Oct 23 4:25 PM Heinz Field
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals ARI-2.0 43.5 Sun, Oct 23 8:30 PM University of Phoenix Stadium
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos DEN-7.5 41.0 Mon, Oct 24 8:30 PM Sports Authority Field

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Offense Spread Team Total Matchup DVOA vs. PASS vs. RB (Run) vs. RB (Pass) vs. WR1 vs. WR2 vs. TE
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 29.8 San Diego 12 9 21 20 15 11 20
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 28.3 New Orleans 28 26 30 31 6 27 25
Cincinnati Bengals -10.0 27.8 Cleveland 27 30 19 18 23 30 30
Green Bay Packers -8.5 27.3 Chicago 15 13 20 6 20 13 13
New England Patriots -7.0 26.3 at Pittsburgh 24 21 17 12 27 20 9
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 25.0 Oakland 29 28 29 26 26 21 26
Tennessee Titans -2.5 25.0 Indianapolis 31 29 32 32 22 17 32
Detroit Lions -1.0 24.8 Washington 18 11 31 3 18 32 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.0 24.5 at San Francisco 20 16 28 4 32 9 6
Denver Broncos -7.5 24.3 Houston 11 7 25 21 2 2 3
Washington Redskins + 1.0 23.8 at Detroit 32 31 26 27 31 18 23
Oakland Raiders + 1.5 23.5 at Jacksonville 13 8 27 2 21 26 5
Buffalo Bills -2.5 23.3 at Miami 17 15 24 7 24 1 18
San Diego Chargers + 6.5 23.3 at Atlanta 26 23 22 28 11 5 22
New York Giants -2.5 23.0 at Los Angeles 14 18 11 8 13 28 15
Arizona Cardinals -2.0 22.8 Seattle 1 3 2 19 7 15 19
San Francisco 49ers + 2.0 22.5 Tampa Bay 23 22 14 30 10 24 8
Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 22.5 at Tennessee 9 10 10 25 8 12 14
New Orleans Saints + 6.5 21.8 at Kansas City 8 6 23 1 16 10 16
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 21.3 at Philadelphia 5 5 15 23 3 22 2
New York Jets -1.0 21.3 Baltimore 6 14 1 16 25 7 4
Miami Dolphins + 2.5 20.8 Buffalo 10 12 12 15 29 4 24
Seattle Seahawks + 2.0 20.8 at Arizona 3 1 13 5 14 16 1
Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 20.5 N.Y. Giants 16 19 9 9 5 29 7
Baltimore Ravens + 1.0 20.3 at N.Y. Jets 30 32 5 22 12 31 21
Pittsburgh Steelers + 7.0 19.3 New England 21 25 7 14 19 19 27
Chicago Bears + 8.5 18.8 at Green Bay 7 17 3 11 30 25 17
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 18.8 Minnesota 2 2 4 17 17 6 11
Cleveland Browns + 10.0 17.8 at Cincinnati 25 24 18 29 4 23 28
Houston Texans + 7.5 16.8 at Denver 4 4 16 24 1 14 10

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Offense Spread Team Total Matchup QB RB WR TE
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 29.8 San Diego 17 31 9 23
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 28.3 New Orleans 18 27 25 12
Cincinnati Bengals -10.0 27.8 Cleveland 32 17 26 27
Green Bay Packers -8.5 27.3 Chicago 9 4 23 8
New England Patriots -7.0 26.3 at Pittsburgh 19 30 17 21
Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 25.0 Oakland 24 22 29 19
Tennessee Titans -2.5 25.0 Indianapolis 28 32 9 20
Detroit Lions -1.0 24.8 Washington 10 26 6 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.0 24.5 at San Francisco 20 27 13 24
Denver Broncos -7.5 24.3 Houston 5 13 7 1
Washington Redskins + 1.0 23.8 at Detroit 31 12 27 30
Oakland Raiders + 1.5 23.5 at Jacksonville 15 23 24 3
Buffalo Bills -2.5 23.3 at Miami 13 6 30 16
San Diego Chargers + 6.5 23.3 at Atlanta 26 29 7 28
New York Giants -2.5 23.0 at Los Angeles 22 10 32 13
Arizona Cardinals -2.0 22.8 Seattle 6 3 5 14
San Francisco 49ers + 2.0 22.5 Tampa Bay 12 19 17 16
Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 22.5 at Tennessee 7 7 11 14
New Orleans Saints + 6.5 21.8 at Kansas City 11 13 16 11
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 21.3 at Philadelphia 2 21 1 2
New York Jets -1.0 21.3 Baltimore 15 4 28 7
Miami Dolphins + 2.5 20.8 Buffalo 7 15 20 6
Seattle Seahawks + 2.0 20.8 at Arizona 14 7 21 4
Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 20.5 N.Y. Giants 3 23 14 9
Baltimore Ravens + 1.0 20.3 at N.Y. Jets 30 19 31 25
Pittsburgh Steelers + 7.0 19.3 New England 25 11 12 26
Chicago Bears + 8.5 18.8 at Green Bay 22 1 22 22
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 18.8 Minnesota 3 18 3 10
Cleveland Browns + 10.0 17.8 at Cincinnati 29 25 4 32
Houston Texans + 7.5 16.8 at Denver 1 15 2 5

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Offense Matchup Team Plays PG Opp. Plays PG Exp. Plays PG Plays PG +/- Team Pace Opp. Pace Exp. Pace Game Pace
Atlanta Falcons San Diego 63.7 61.3 62.5 -1.2 28.5 29.0 28.8 12
Kansas City Chiefs New Orleans 65.6 69.2 67.4 1.8 29.7 28.6 29.2 14
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland 65.2 62.3 63.8 -1.4 30.4 29.7 30.1 9
Green Bay Packers Chicago 63.6 62.3 63.0 -0.6 29.2 31.0 30.1 7
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh 65.0 63.3 64.2 -0.8 30.7 28.6 29.7 11
Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland 62.8 61.8 62.3 -0.5 29.6 30.6 30.1 4
Tennessee Titans Indianapolis 62.8 67.3 65.1 2.3 34.4 30.2 32.3 5
Detroit Lions Washington 61.3 62.2 61.8 0.4 30.1 30.9 30.5 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 70.6 64.0 67.3 -3.3 30.9 25.8 28.4 15
Denver Broncos Houston 63.7 66.8 65.3 1.6 29.3 29.9 29.6 13
Washington Redskins at Detroit 62.2 61.3 61.8 -0.4 30.9 30.1 30.5 3
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville 61.8 62.8 62.3 0.5 30.6 29.6 30.1 4
Buffalo Bills at Miami 59.8 55.3 57.6 -2.3 30.9 31.2 31.1 1
San Diego Chargers at Atlanta 61.3 63.7 62.5 1.2 29.0 28.5 28.8 12
New York Giants at Los Angeles 61.8 58.7 60.3 -1.6 28.4 30.5 29.5 6
Arizona Cardinals Seattle 68.7 65.8 67.2 -1.4 29.0 32.7 30.9 10
San Francisco 49ers Tampa Bay 64.0 70.6 67.3 3.3 25.8 30.9 28.4 15
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee 67.3 62.8 65.1 -2.3 30.2 34.4 32.3 5
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City 69.2 65.6 67.4 -1.8 28.6 29.7 29.2 14
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia 62.0 61.4 61.7 -0.3 29.1 32.0 30.6 2
New York Jets Baltimore 63.0 70.8 66.9 3.9 30.8 31.2 31.0 8
Miami Dolphins Buffalo 55.3 59.8 57.6 2.3 31.2 30.9 31.1 1
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona 65.8 68.7 67.2 1.4 32.7 29.0 30.9 10
Los Angeles Rams N.Y. Giants 58.7 61.8 60.3 1.6 30.5 28.4 29.5 6
Baltimore Ravens at N.Y. Jets 70.8 63.0 66.9 -3.9 31.2 30.8 31.0 8
Pittsburgh Steelers New England 63.3 65.0 64.2 0.8 28.6 30.7 29.7 11
Chicago Bears at Green Bay 62.3 63.6 63.0 0.6 31.0 29.2 30.1 7
Philadelphia Eagles Minnesota 61.4 62.0 61.7 0.3 32.0 29.1 30.6 2
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati 62.3 65.2 63.8 1.4 29.7 30.4 30.1 9
Houston Texans at Denver 66.8 63.7 65.3 -1.6 29.9 29.3 29.6 13

Projected Starters

Team QB RB WR1 WR2 WR3 TE K
Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan Devonta Freeman Julio Jones Mohamed Sanu Justin Hardy Jacob Tamme Matt Bryant
Kansas City Chiefs Alex Smith Jamaal Charles Jeremy Maclin Chris Conley Albert Wilson Travis Kelce Cairo Santos
Cincinnati Bengals Andy Dalton Jeremy Hill A.J. Green Brandon LaFell Tyler Boyd Tyler Eifert Mike Nugent
Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers Eddie Lacy Jordy Nelson Randall Cobb Davante Adams Richard Rodgers Mason Crosby
New England Patriots Tom Brady LeGarrette Blount Julian Edelman Danny Amendola Chris Hogan Rob Gronkowski Stephen Gostkowski
Jacksonville Jaguars Blake Bortles T.J. Yeldon Allen Robinson Allen Hurns Marqise Lee Julius Thomas Jason Myers
Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota DeMarco Murray Rishard Matthews Tajae Sharpe Kendall Wright Delanie Walker Ryan Succop
Detroit Lions Matthew Stafford Theo Riddick Golden Tate Marvin Jones Anquan Boldin Eric Ebron Matt Prater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jameis Winston Doug Martin Mike Evans Vincent Jackson Adam Humphries Cameron Brate Roberto Aguayo
Denver Broncos Trevor Siemian C.J. Anderson Demaryius Thomas Emmanuel Sanders Bennie Fowler Virgil Green Brandon McManus
Washington Redskins Kirk Cousins Matt Jones DeSean Jackson Pierre Garcon Jamison Crowder Jordan Reed Dustin Hopkins
Oakland Raiders Derek Carr Latavius Murray Amari Cooper Michael Crabtree Seth Roberts Clive Walford Sebastian Janikowski
Buffalo Bills Tyrod Taylor LeSean McCoy Robert Woods Marquise Goodwin Walt Powell Charles Clay Dan Carpenter
San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers Melvin Gordon Travis Benjamin Dontrelle Inman Tyrell Williams Antonio Gates Josh Lambo
New York Giants Eli Manning Rashad Jennings Odell Beckham Jr. Sterling Shepard Victor Cruz Larry Donnell Josh Brown
Arizona Cardinals Carson Palmer David Johnson Larry Fitzgerald Michael Floyd John Brown Darren Fells Chandler Catanzaro
San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick Carlos Hyde Torrey Smith Quinton Patton Jeremy Kerley Vance McDonald Phil Dawson
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck Frank Gore T.Y. Hilton Phillip Dorsett Quan Bray Dwayne Allen Adam Vinatieri
New Orleans Saints Drew Brees Mark Ingram Brandin Cooks Willie Snead Michael Thomas Coby Fleener Wil Lutz
Minnesota Vikings Sam Bradford Jerick McKinnon Stefon Diggs Adam Thielen Charles Johnson Kyle Rudolph Blair Walsh
New York Jets Ryan Fitzpatrick Matt Forte Brandon Marshall Quincy Enunwa Jalin Marshall Kellen Davis Nick Folk
Miami Dolphins Ryan Tannehill Jay Ajayi Jarvis Landry DeVante Parker Kenny Stills Jordan Cameron Andrew Franks
Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson Christine Michael Doug Baldwin Jermaine Kearse Tyler Lockett Jimmy Graham Steven Hauschka
Los Angeles Rams Case Keenum Todd Gurley Kenny Britt Tavon Austin Brian Quick Lance Kendricks Greg Zuerlein
Baltimore Ravens Joe Flacco Terrance West Mike Wallace Steve Smith Kamar Aiken Dennis Pitta Justin Tucker
Pittsburgh Steelers Landry Jones Le’Veon Bell Antonio Brown Markus Wheaton Sammie Coates Jesse James Chris Boswell
Chicago Bears Jay Cutler Jordan Howard Alshon Jeffery Eddie Royal Cameron Meredith Zach Miller Connor Barth
Philadelphia Eagles Carson Wentz Ryan Mathews Jordan Matthews Nelson Agholor Dorial Green-Beckham Zach Ertz Caleb Sturgis
Cleveland Browns Cody Kessler Isaiah Crowell Terrelle Pryor Andrew Hawkins Ricardo Louis Gary Barnidge Cody Parkey
Houston Texans Brock Osweiler Lamar Miller DeAndre Hopkins Will Fuller Braxton Miller C.J. Fiedorowicz Nick Novak

First Look Legend

Term Description
DVOA Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking
vs. PASS DVOA pass defense ranking
vs. RB (Run) DVOA ranking against the run
vs. RB (Pass) DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield
vs. WR1 DVOA ranking vs. WR1s
vs. WR2 DVOA ranking vs. WR2s
vs. WRTE DVOA ranking vs. TEs
Team Plays PG Average number of plays ran per game
Exp. Plays PG Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another
Plays PG +/- The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week
Team Pace Situation-adj average seconds per play ran
Opp. Pace Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent
Game Pace Projected game pace (the higher the number, the faster the pace)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious