NFL First Look: Week 7 Preview
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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
Week 6 Thoughts
— I honestly can’t believe it has already been six weeks. It feels like the season just started.
— Thursday Night Football is painful to watch. It continues to be a great fade if you play the Thu-Mon slates.
— The Chargers finally held on to a lead. They could easily be leading the division right now.
— The / timeshare is concerning. I’m giving Anderson a slight downgrade moving forward.
— How scary was that injury? Niners continue to be one of the best defenses to target running backs against.
— didn’t look terrible against a quality opponent in the Bills. He makes an intriguing GPP play moving forward.
— The Eagles “are who we thought they were!” They spread the ball out too much in the passing game and have too many RBs.
— has exceeded everyone’s expectations. He deserves recognition as a viable fantasy option each week.
— has had two great games in a row, but is still the top fantasy target in the Titans’ offense.
— is having fun again. He went bonkers with over 200 yards and two touchdowns and he’s getting along with the net.
— The Panthers/Saints game confirmed what we already knew – anyone and everyone is in play in the Superdome.
— The Panthers are in deep trouble at 1-5. The fact that they are 0-3 in the division makes it even worse.
— at home = fantasy goodness. on the road = fantasy fadeness.
— My Jaguars have won two in a row. They aren’t going anywhere if doesn’t improve, though.
— is not a flash in the pan. He followed up his big Week 5 with 11 receptions for 113 yards.
— I fell for the old trap this week. The Rams’ offense is just too inconsistent to use in cash games.
— is back. He looked explosive against the Rams, albeit they were missing their best cornerback, Trumaine Johnson.
— We never want to see star players get injured. The Steelers’ offense could be in trouble without .
— rushed for 10,000 yards on Sunday (it was actually 204). Get ready for high ownership this week against the Bills.
— The Patriots arguably have the best offense in the NFL. is the number one fantasy quarterback moving forward.
— looked good against the Raiders. His snap count and touch rate is only going to increase.
— has reclaimed the number one receiver spot in the Raiders’ offense. He could honestly have eight touchdowns.
— The Falcons lost a tough game against the Seahawks, but their offense is for real.
— and are seeing the snaps and workload and both are delivering.
— There is no way the Cowboys can go back to , right? RIGHT? is a monster that loves eating from a bowl.
— hasn’t looked good this season. Luckily, he has a get right spot against the Bears in Week 7.
— How on earth did the Colts lose that game? With that bad offensive line, they continue to be a great team to stream defenses against.
— FINALLY! I’ve been waiting for the breakout game all year. I know it was against the Colts, but he looked great.
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
Road Team | | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium |
Chicago Bears | at | Green Bay Packers | GB -8.5 | 46.0 | Thu, Oct 20 | 8:25 PM | Lambeau Field |
New York Giants | at | Los Angeles Rams | NYG-2.5 | 43.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 9:30 AM | Twickenham Stadium |
Baltimore Ravens | at | New York Jets | NYJ-1.0 | 41.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium |
Buffalo Bills | at | Miami Dolphins | BUF-2.5 | 44.0 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Sun Life Stadium |
Cleveland Browns | at | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN-10.0 | 45.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Paul Brown Stadium |
Indianapolis Colts | at | Tennessee Titans | TEN-2.5 | 47.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Nissan Stadium |
Minnesota Vikings | at | Philadelphia Eagles | MIN-2.5 | 40.0 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Lincoln Financial Field |
New Orleans Saints | at | Kansas City Chiefs | KC -6.5 | 50.0 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Arrowhead Stadium |
Oakland Raiders | at | Jacksonville Jaguars | JAC-1.5 | 48.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | EverBank Field |
Washington Redskins | at | Detroit Lions | DET-1.0 | 48.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 1:00 PM | Ford Field |
San Diego Chargers | at | Atlanta Falcons | ATL-6.5 | 53.0 | Sun, Oct 23 | 4:05 PM | Georgia Dome |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | at | San Francisco 49ers | TB -2.0 | 47.0 | Sun, Oct 23 | 4:05 PM | Levi’s Stadium |
New England Patriots | at | Pittsburgh Steelers | NE -7.0 | 45.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 4:25 PM | Heinz Field |
Seattle Seahawks | at | Arizona Cardinals | ARI-2.0 | 43.5 | Sun, Oct 23 | 8:30 PM | University of Phoenix Stadium |
Houston Texans | at | Denver Broncos | DEN-7.5 | 41.0 | Mon, Oct 24 | 8:30 PM | Sports Authority Field |
Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups
Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.
Offense | Spread | Team Total | Matchup | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RB (Run) | vs. RB (Pass) | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
Atlanta Falcons | -6.5 | 29.8 | San Diego | 12 | 9 | 21 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
Kansas City Chiefs | -6.5 | 28.3 | New Orleans | 28 | 26 | 30 | 31 | 6 | 27 | 25 |
Cincinnati Bengals | -10.0 | 27.8 | Cleveland | 27 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 23 | 30 | 30 |
Green Bay Packers | -8.5 | 27.3 | Chicago | 15 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 20 | 13 | 13 |
New England Patriots | -7.0 | 26.3 | at Pittsburgh | 24 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 27 | 20 | 9 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.5 | 25.0 | Oakland | 29 | 28 | 29 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 26 |
Tennessee Titans | -2.5 | 25.0 | Indianapolis | 31 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 22 | 17 | 32 |
Detroit Lions | -1.0 | 24.8 | Washington | 18 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 12 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.0 | 24.5 | at San Francisco | 20 | 16 | 28 | 4 | 32 | 9 | 6 |
Denver Broncos | -7.5 | 24.3 | Houston | 11 | 7 | 25 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Washington Redskins | + 1.0 | 23.8 | at Detroit | 32 | 31 | 26 | 27 | 31 | 18 | 23 |
Oakland Raiders | + 1.5 | 23.5 | at Jacksonville | 13 | 8 | 27 | 2 | 21 | 26 | 5 |
Buffalo Bills | -2.5 | 23.3 | at Miami | 17 | 15 | 24 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 18 |
San Diego Chargers | + 6.5 | 23.3 | at Atlanta | 26 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 22 |
New York Giants | -2.5 | 23.0 | at Los Angeles | 14 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 28 | 15 |
Arizona Cardinals | -2.0 | 22.8 | Seattle | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 7 | 15 | 19 |
San Francisco 49ers | + 2.0 | 22.5 | Tampa Bay | 23 | 22 | 14 | 30 | 10 | 24 | 8 |
Indianapolis Colts | + 2.5 | 22.5 | at Tennessee | 9 | 10 | 10 | 25 | 8 | 12 | 14 |
New Orleans Saints | + 6.5 | 21.8 | at Kansas City | 8 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 16 |
Minnesota Vikings | -2.5 | 21.3 | at Philadelphia | 5 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 22 | 2 |
New York Jets | -1.0 | 21.3 | Baltimore | 6 | 14 | 1 | 16 | 25 | 7 | 4 |
Miami Dolphins | + 2.5 | 20.8 | Buffalo | 10 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 29 | 4 | 24 |
Seattle Seahawks | + 2.0 | 20.8 | at Arizona | 3 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 1 |
Los Angeles Rams | + 2.5 | 20.5 | N.Y. Giants | 16 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 7 |
Baltimore Ravens | + 1.0 | 20.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 30 | 32 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 31 | 21 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | + 7.0 | 19.3 | New England | 21 | 25 | 7 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 27 |
Chicago Bears | + 8.5 | 18.8 | at Green Bay | 7 | 17 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 25 | 17 |
Philadelphia Eagles | + 2.5 | 18.8 | Minnesota | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 11 |
Cleveland Browns | + 10.0 | 17.8 | at Cincinnati | 25 | 24 | 18 | 29 | 4 | 23 | 28 |
Houston Texans | + 7.5 | 16.8 | at Denver | 4 | 4 | 16 | 24 | 1 | 14 | 10 |
Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups
Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.
Offense | Spread | Team Total | Matchup | QB | RB | WR | TE |
Atlanta Falcons | -6.5 | 29.8 | San Diego | 17 | 31 | 9 | 23 |
Kansas City Chiefs | -6.5 | 28.3 | New Orleans | 18 | 27 | 25 | 12 |
Cincinnati Bengals | -10.0 | 27.8 | Cleveland | 32 | 17 | 26 | 27 |
Green Bay Packers | -8.5 | 27.3 | Chicago | 9 | 4 | 23 | 8 |
New England Patriots | -7.0 | 26.3 | at Pittsburgh | 19 | 30 | 17 | 21 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | -1.5 | 25.0 | Oakland | 24 | 22 | 29 | 19 |
Tennessee Titans | -2.5 | 25.0 | Indianapolis | 28 | 32 | 9 | 20 |
Detroit Lions | -1.0 | 24.8 | Washington | 10 | 26 | 6 | 18 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -2.0 | 24.5 | at San Francisco | 20 | 27 | 13 | 24 |
Denver Broncos | -7.5 | 24.3 | Houston | 5 | 13 | 7 | 1 |
Washington Redskins | + 1.0 | 23.8 | at Detroit | 31 | 12 | 27 | 30 |
Oakland Raiders | + 1.5 | 23.5 | at Jacksonville | 15 | 23 | 24 | 3 |
Buffalo Bills | -2.5 | 23.3 | at Miami | 13 | 6 | 30 | 16 |
San Diego Chargers | + 6.5 | 23.3 | at Atlanta | 26 | 29 | 7 | 28 |
New York Giants | -2.5 | 23.0 | at Los Angeles | 22 | 10 | 32 | 13 |
Arizona Cardinals | -2.0 | 22.8 | Seattle | 6 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
San Francisco 49ers | + 2.0 | 22.5 | Tampa Bay | 12 | 19 | 17 | 16 |
Indianapolis Colts | + 2.5 | 22.5 | at Tennessee | 7 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
New Orleans Saints | + 6.5 | 21.8 | at Kansas City | 11 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
Minnesota Vikings | -2.5 | 21.3 | at Philadelphia | 2 | 21 | 1 | 2 |
New York Jets | -1.0 | 21.3 | Baltimore | 15 | 4 | 28 | 7 |
Miami Dolphins | + 2.5 | 20.8 | Buffalo | 7 | 15 | 20 | 6 |
Seattle Seahawks | + 2.0 | 20.8 | at Arizona | 14 | 7 | 21 | 4 |
Los Angeles Rams | + 2.5 | 20.5 | N.Y. Giants | 3 | 23 | 14 | 9 |
Baltimore Ravens | + 1.0 | 20.3 | at N.Y. Jets | 30 | 19 | 31 | 25 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | + 7.0 | 19.3 | New England | 25 | 11 | 12 | 26 |
Chicago Bears | + 8.5 | 18.8 | at Green Bay | 22 | 1 | 22 | 22 |
Philadelphia Eagles | + 2.5 | 18.8 | Minnesota | 3 | 18 | 3 | 10 |
Cleveland Browns | + 10.0 | 17.8 | at Cincinnati | 29 | 25 | 4 | 32 |
Houston Texans | + 7.5 | 16.8 | at Denver | 1 | 15 | 2 | 5 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play
Offense | Matchup | Team Plays PG | Opp. Plays PG | Exp. Plays PG | Plays PG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Game Pace |
Atlanta Falcons | San Diego | 63.7 | 61.3 | 62.5 | -1.2 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 28.8 | 12 |
Kansas City Chiefs | New Orleans | 65.6 | 69.2 | 67.4 | 1.8 | 29.7 | 28.6 | 29.2 | 14 |
Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland | 65.2 | 62.3 | 63.8 | -1.4 | 30.4 | 29.7 | 30.1 | 9 |
Green Bay Packers | Chicago | 63.6 | 62.3 | 63.0 | -0.6 | 29.2 | 31.0 | 30.1 | 7 |
New England Patriots | at Pittsburgh | 65.0 | 63.3 | 64.2 | -0.8 | 30.7 | 28.6 | 29.7 | 11 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | Oakland | 62.8 | 61.8 | 62.3 | -0.5 | 29.6 | 30.6 | 30.1 | 4 |
Tennessee Titans | Indianapolis | 62.8 | 67.3 | 65.1 | 2.3 | 34.4 | 30.2 | 32.3 | 5 |
Detroit Lions | Washington | 61.3 | 62.2 | 61.8 | 0.4 | 30.1 | 30.9 | 30.5 | 3 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | at San Francisco | 70.6 | 64.0 | 67.3 | -3.3 | 30.9 | 25.8 | 28.4 | 15 |
Denver Broncos | Houston | 63.7 | 66.8 | 65.3 | 1.6 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 29.6 | 13 |
Washington Redskins | at Detroit | 62.2 | 61.3 | 61.8 | -0.4 | 30.9 | 30.1 | 30.5 | 3 |
Oakland Raiders | at Jacksonville | 61.8 | 62.8 | 62.3 | 0.5 | 30.6 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 4 |
Buffalo Bills | at Miami | 59.8 | 55.3 | 57.6 | -2.3 | 30.9 | 31.2 | 31.1 | 1 |
San Diego Chargers | at Atlanta | 61.3 | 63.7 | 62.5 | 1.2 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.8 | 12 |
New York Giants | at Los Angeles | 61.8 | 58.7 | 60.3 | -1.6 | 28.4 | 30.5 | 29.5 | 6 |
Arizona Cardinals | Seattle | 68.7 | 65.8 | 67.2 | -1.4 | 29.0 | 32.7 | 30.9 | 10 |
San Francisco 49ers | Tampa Bay | 64.0 | 70.6 | 67.3 | 3.3 | 25.8 | 30.9 | 28.4 | 15 |
Indianapolis Colts | at Tennessee | 67.3 | 62.8 | 65.1 | -2.3 | 30.2 | 34.4 | 32.3 | 5 |
New Orleans Saints | at Kansas City | 69.2 | 65.6 | 67.4 | -1.8 | 28.6 | 29.7 | 29.2 | 14 |
Minnesota Vikings | at Philadelphia | 62.0 | 61.4 | 61.7 | -0.3 | 29.1 | 32.0 | 30.6 | 2 |
New York Jets | Baltimore | 63.0 | 70.8 | 66.9 | 3.9 | 30.8 | 31.2 | 31.0 | 8 |
Miami Dolphins | Buffalo | 55.3 | 59.8 | 57.6 | 2.3 | 31.2 | 30.9 | 31.1 | 1 |
Seattle Seahawks | at Arizona | 65.8 | 68.7 | 67.2 | 1.4 | 32.7 | 29.0 | 30.9 | 10 |
Los Angeles Rams | N.Y. Giants | 58.7 | 61.8 | 60.3 | 1.6 | 30.5 | 28.4 | 29.5 | 6 |
Baltimore Ravens | at N.Y. Jets | 70.8 | 63.0 | 66.9 | -3.9 | 31.2 | 30.8 | 31.0 | 8 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | New England | 63.3 | 65.0 | 64.2 | 0.8 | 28.6 | 30.7 | 29.7 | 11 |
Chicago Bears | at Green Bay | 62.3 | 63.6 | 63.0 | 0.6 | 31.0 | 29.2 | 30.1 | 7 |
Philadelphia Eagles | Minnesota | 61.4 | 62.0 | 61.7 | 0.3 | 32.0 | 29.1 | 30.6 | 2 |
Cleveland Browns | at Cincinnati | 62.3 | 65.2 | 63.8 | 1.4 | 29.7 | 30.4 | 30.1 | 9 |
Houston Texans | at Denver | 66.8 | 63.7 | 65.3 | -1.6 | 29.9 | 29.3 | 29.6 | 13 |
Projected Starters
Team | QB | RB | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE | K |
Atlanta Falcons | | | | | | | |
Kansas City Chiefs | | | | | | | |
Cincinnati Bengals | | | | | | | |
Green Bay Packers | | | | | | | |
New England Patriots | | | | | | | |
Jacksonville Jaguars | | | | | | | |
Tennessee Titans | | | | | | | |
Detroit Lions | | | | | | | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | | | | | | | |
Denver Broncos | | | | | | | |
Washington Redskins | | | | | | | |
Oakland Raiders | | | | | | | |
Buffalo Bills | | | | | Walt Powell | | |
San Diego Chargers | | | | | | | |
New York Giants | | | | | | | |
Arizona Cardinals | | | | | | | |
San Francisco 49ers | | | | | | | |
Indianapolis Colts | | | | | | | |
New Orleans Saints | | | | | | | |
Minnesota Vikings | | | | | Charles Johnson | | |
New York Jets | | | | | | | |
Miami Dolphins | | | | | | | |
Seattle Seahawks | | | | | | | |
Los Angeles Rams | | | | | | | |
Baltimore Ravens | | | | | | | |
Pittsburgh Steelers | | Le’Veon Bell | | | | | |
Chicago Bears | | | | | | | |
Philadelphia Eagles | | | | | | | |
Cleveland Browns | | | | | | | |
Houston Texans | | | | | | | |
First Look Legend
Term | Description |
DVOA | Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking |
vs. PASS | DVOA pass defense ranking |
vs. RB (Run) | DVOA ranking against the run |
vs. RB (Pass) | DVOA ranking against RBs catching the ball out of the backfield |
vs. WR1 | DVOA ranking vs. WR1s |
vs. WR2 | DVOA ranking vs. WR2s |
vs. WRTE | DVOA ranking vs. TEs |
Team Plays PG | Average number of plays ran per game |
Exp. Plays PG | Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another |
Plays PG +/- | The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week |
Team Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran |
Opp. Pace | Situation-adj average seconds per play ran of the opponent |
Game Pace | Projected game pace (the higher the number, the faster the pace) |