NFL First Look: Week 13 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-02 04:00:40

Follow Notorious on Twitter!

The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

Week 12 Thoughts

— The Vikings’ offense is as stale as it could possibly get. They desperately need to get something going on the ground.
— The Lions keep flip-flopping, but it appears that Theo Riddick is the #1 back in Detroit. He faces the Saints this week, just saying.
— Kirk Cousins broke the narrative that he wasn’t good on the road in Week 12, but has an awful matchup against the Cardinals in Arizona.
— Dak Prescott is great. Ezekiel Elliott is great. Dez Bryant is great. The Cowboys are great. They do need to sure up their fourth quarter defense though.
— The Killer B’s from the Steelers are officially back. We should see some fireworks this week against the Giants at home.
— The Colts are still alive in the AFC South at 5-6, but they need Andrew Luck back pronto.
— Marcus Mariota has multiple passing touchdowns in eight straight games. Rishard Matthews has seven touchdowns during that stretch.
— Matt Barkley wasn’t terrible. While I won’t be targeting him in DFS anytime soon, Marquess Wilson appears to be a thing again.
— The Jaguars’ defense continues to play well, but the Jaguars’ offense is worse than they have been in a while (and that’s saying something).
— Other than his 75-yard run, LeSean McCoy didn’t look great against the Jaguars. It was nice to see him get a full workload again though.
— In the first two games without A.J. Green, here is the target distribution for the Bengals: Tyler Eifert (17), Tyler Boyd (17), Brandon LaFell (18), Jeremy Hill (8).
— The Ravens’ offense is close to unplayable right now. They have a timeshare at running back and an aging aged passing attack.
— I know he gets a ton of work through the passing game, but David Arians – GIVE DAVID JOHNSON THE BALL! 13 carries?
— I don’t put a ton of stock into cornerback/wide receiver matchups, but Patrick Peterson is a shut down defender.
— Life would be good as the Giants’ offensive coordinator. Hey, Odell Beckham – run five yard slants and crossing patterns. Perfect, another raise.
— Why do I keep falling for Gary Barnidge when I know that Josh McCown has moved on to greener pastures (Terrelle Pryor)?
— Jared Goff may have thrown for three touchdowns against the Saints, but so can Uncle Rico. Don’t target the Rams anytime soon.
— Play the Saints at home, play the Saints at home, play the Saints at home. There may be 100 points scored this week against the Lions.
— I haven’t heard anything official yet, but Brandin Cooks must have done something to Drew Brees and it must have been serious.
— Colin Kaepernick may not be a great quarterback, but his rushing ability makes him a safe play with upside each and every week.
— Until the Dolphins’ offensive line gets healthy, stay away from Jay Ajayi.
— It appears that Dontrelle Inman has taken over as the number two receiver in San Diego. Tyrell Williams is still the number one option.
— Brock Osweiler is a legitimate bottom five quarterback in the NFL and the Texans are winning the division. Time to unleash the Savage.
— The one week where I load up on the Seahawks’ offense, they score five points? The Mariners could score more runs against the Rays in Tampa.
— Mike Evans was a great example of why I typically don’t factor in cornerback/wide receiver matchups as most. If anything, it creates one-on-one opportunities.
— The Panthers’ offense is nowhere near what it was last season. Their defense is even further away than their offense.
— The Raiders may not like to win by large margins, but they sure do like to win. Jack Del Rio is a company man through and through; keeping these games close.
— The Patriots are winning games, but their offense has sputtered a bit recently. They should rest Rob Gronkowski until he is close to 100%.
— Brandon Marshall has been getting a ton of targets in the redzone and finally caught a touchdown last week. Maybe we’ll see some positive regression in the next few games.
— Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 101 yards against the Broncos. Does that mean we can trust him moving forward? Of course not. Tyreek Hill is seeing consistent work each week though.
— Nobody likes to play for a tie, but kicking a 62-yard field goal in the cold with a minute left in overtime wasn’t the best decision I’ve seen a coach make. I suppose it wasn’t the worst either.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Projected Starters

First Look Legend