NFL First Look: Week 17 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-01 14:44:41

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 16 Recap & Thoughts

— It’s hard to believe Week 17 is upon us. The NFL season feels both too short and too long. I’d love to have fantasy football every week of the year, but the number of injuries that occur toward the end of the season are staggering.
— Odell Beckham is averaging 13.3 targets in his last four games. The Giants are already in the playoffs and could help the Redskins get in with a loss against them in Washington in Week 17.
— After losing five games in a row, it had to have felt good for the Eagles to beat the Giants. They are still a tough team to target in DFS though.
— If Jay Ajayi could face the Bills every week, he would rush for over 3,000 yards.
— The Bills had nearly 600 yards from scrimmage and didn’t commit a turnover against the Dolphins. They still found a way to lose.
— How many times are the Jets going to go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick? Why not give Christian Hackenberg a shot?
— Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense look like a well-oiled machine heading into the playoffs. The AFC Championship runs through Foxboro.
— Really sad to see Marcus Mariota break his fibula/ankle. Wishing him a quick and speedy recovery.
— It may have taken 16 weeks, but my Jags are alive baby! Blake Bortles throws for 325 yards and Allen Robinson catches nine balls for 147 yards. They should be able to keep the momentum going against a terrible Colts’ secondary in Week 17.
— Adam Thielen is making a name for himself. He caught 12 of his 15 targets for 202 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers.
— If the Packers beat the Lions, they win the division. If they lose, they are can still make it in as a wildcard with a Redskins loss. The lesson we learned last week? Don’t shy away from Jordy Rodgers in difficult matchups.
— Antonio Gates needs one touchdown to tie the record for touchdowns by a tight end. Unfortunately, he has to square off against Eric Berry and the Chiefs. Kenneth Farrow was place on IR and Melvin Gordon could miss another week. Rivers may air it out 50 times this week.
— The Browns won a game! And they didn’t cost themselves the number one pick in next year’s draft, as the Niners also won last week.
— Over the last five weeks, the Falcons are averaging 36.4 points per game. They finish the season against the Saints at home.
— The Panthers win against the Redskins was fluky. We were foolish to think they were trending in the right direction.
— The Colts are going to miss the playoffs yet again. Management needs to invest in an offensive line and may a defensive one while they’re at it.
— Losing Derek Carr was absolutely brutal for the Raiders. I hate to count them out, but teams will be clamoring to face the Raiders in the playoffs.
— Doug Martin was a healthy scratch for the Buccaneers last week. Jacquizz Rodgers out-touched Charles Sims 17-to-7.
— Drew Brees completed passed to nine different receivers against the Buccaneers. Brees naked is the way to go in cash games.
— The Cardinals didn’t knock the Seahawks out of the playoffs, but they may have cost them a first round bye. Oh, and we should NEVER fade David Johnson. Even if he’s inactive, he’s going to find a way to get 20 fantasy points.
— When the Seahawks are forced to air it out, Russell Wilson looks to Doug Baldwin. It’s something to keep in mind heading into the playoffs.
— The Niners beat the Rams, but they may have cost themselves the top overall draft pick.
— Todd Gurley has yet to rush for more than 85 yards this season. It’s bad in Los Angeles, real bad.
— Which was worse? Jeremy Hill final stat line or having to watch the Bengals and Texans play for three hours in a primetime game?
— Brock Osweiler was so bad that we heaped praise on Tom Savage before Week 16. I’m not sure either quarterback is the answer in Houston.
— The Ravens have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. In the end, the Killer B’s were just too much for Baltimore.
— Why couldn’t the Steelers have played in the main slate? It would have fixed so many of my problems.
— The Broncos have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but hey, they don’t have Brock Osweiler.
— If the Raiders lose to the Broncos, the Chiefs could win the division and get a first round bye. They will treat the Charger’s game as an absolute must win.
— The Lions fell short against the Cowboys and are now in the same position as the Packers. Whoever wins next week wraps up the division and goes to the playoffs.
— Please let the Cowboys be this good in the playoffs. I’m not a Cowboys’ fan by any means, but I love watching Dak and Zeke.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Projected Starters

First Look Legend