NFL First Look: Week 16 Preview

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-26 03:08:11

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 15 Recap & Thoughts

— New coach, same issues for the Rams.
— Thomas Rawls only rushed for 34 yards, but most (and if I’m not mistaken ALL) of them were yards after contact.
— Don’t buy into the Matt Moore hype just yet. His four touchdowns came on 12 completions. That is not sustainable moving forward.
— The Jets remain a top streamer option for opposing defenses. They have all but given up offensively, except Robby Anderson.
— The Packers have a running back on their hands. If they go back to James Starks, I give up. Two more wins and they should be in the playoffs.
— Davante Adams is really good at dropping touchdowns.
— Matt Barkley threw for 362 yards in zero degree weather. Deonte Thompson and Cam Meredith combined for 23 targets.
— The Texans benched Brock Osweiler and got a strong performance from their backup Tom Savage (cc: Jacksonville Jaguars).
— DeAndre Hopkins saw 17 targets against the Jaguars. Assuming Savage starts Week 15, we may finally be able to play Hopkins in DFS.
— Allen Robinson could be free and we still shouldn’t target him. #TruthHurts
— Robert Griffin finished with 18 fantasy points in Week 15 and now gets the Chargers at home. I’m at least somewhat intrigued.
— The Bills rushed for 280 yards against the Browns. Stream, stream, stream your running backs, gently against the Browns.
— Ryan Mathews looked spry against the Ravens, rushing for 128 yards on only 20 carries.
— Kenneth Dixon was bailed out by a late touchdown that saved his fantasy day. Save him for games where the Ravens are playing from behind.
— What a comeback from the Titans to potentially save their season. They now need to beat Blake Bortles and Tom Savage.
— We knew not to trust Andy Reid. Their running backs don’t get enough touches and no single wideout gets enough targets.
— Note to self: target Golden Tate whenever Theo Riddick is out.
— Odell Beckham is #good. He makes Eli Manning, who is #bad, look a whole lot better.
— Andrew Luck could have thrown for 400 yards against the Vikings if they weren’t nursing a 30 point lead.
— With a bottom three run-blocking offensive line, it doesn’t matter who the running back is in Minnesota.
— Le’Veon Bell may have had a subpar game, but he had 23 carries and saw ten targets. Keep forcing him into your lineups.
— Would you look at that? Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks played well on the road. You can’t keep Brees down three weeks in a row.
— I get that the Cardinals don’t have anything to play for, but 12 carries for David Johnson? Bruce “I hate DJ’s” Arians is so tilting.
— The Niners aren’t interested in winning. Even in a game where they were trailing from the start, Colin Kaepernick only had 33 pass attempts.
— Who needs Julio Jones, anyway? The Falcons do! Getting him healthy for the playoffs should be their top priority.
— It looks like Dion Lewis has taken over as the primary running back in New England. Of course, running backs from the Patriots can’t be trusted.
— T.J. Ward, come on buddy. Celebrating after getting a 15-yard penalty that basically iced the game?
— The Raiders keep finding ways to win. Either they are a team of destiny or their luck is about to run out.
— Philip Rivers has cost the Chargers a lot of wins this season. They could easily be in playoff contention right now.
— The Buccaneers almost beat the Cowboys in a game where Jameis Winston threw three interceptions.
— Dak Prescott completed 32-of-36 passes against Tampa Bay. And Ezekiel Elliott continues to be criminally under-owned.
— What an awful loss by the Redskins on Monday night. They no longer control their own destiny for the postseason.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Projected Starters

First Look Legend