NFL First Look: Week 3 Preview
The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, and a list of projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.
I hope everyone had the Week 2 that they were hoping and dreaming for. While we can’t all be Millionaire Maker winners like Al Zeidenfeld (huge congrats!), we can look to improve our process each and every week. Speaking of improvements, I have added a few statistics to the First Look this week. If you scroll down to the implied team totals section, you will now see columns for DVOA, Pass, Run, WR1, WR2, and TE. This is a great tool to use to spot the best individual matchups. The rankings are for the opponent of the offense listed. For instance, the Saints are taking on the Falcons this week, whose defense is ranked 32nd in total DVOA, 30th in pass defense, 23rd in run defense, and so on.
The other addition is the pace of play table. The more games that are played, the more accurate the pace columns become. I have broken the pace of each team out into two sections – plays per game and seconds per play ran (pace). The “+/-” column shows how many more (or fewer) plays a team is expected to have, based on their matchup and their season averages. The “Proj. Game Pace” column ranks the games in order of projected pace, with one being the fastest paced game. It’s still early in the week, but it appears to be a punt the running back type of week for cash games. With all of the injured running backs in the league, there is a ton of value to be had at the position. As I harp on in my Blueprint to Weekly Fantasy Football, finding value at running back allows us to pay up for the more volatile positions like wide receiver.
First Look Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| DVOA | Football Outsiders’ total defense ranking |
| vs. PASS | DVOA pass defense ranking |
| vs. RUN | DVOA run defense ranking |
| vs. WR1 | DVOA ranking vs. WR1s |
| vs. WR2 | DVOA ranking vs. WR2s |
| vs. WRTE | DVOA ranking vs. TEs |
| Exp. PPG | Expected plays based on the average plays of the two teams facing one another |
| Team PPG | Average number of plays a team and their previous opponents have ran each game |
| PPG +/- | The difference between a team’s PPG and their Exp. PPG for the week |
| Team Pace | Average seconds per play ran |
| Opp. Pace | Opposing team’s average seconds per play ran |
| Proj. Game Pace | Expected pace of play for each game (16 being the fastest) |
NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | at | New England Patriots | NE -1.0 | 39.5 | Thu, Sep 22 | 8:25 PM | Gillette Stadium |
| Arizona Cardinals | at | Buffalo Bills | ARI-3.5 | 47.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Ralph Wilson Stadium |
| Baltimore Ravens | at | Jacksonville Jaguars | BAL-1.5 | 47.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | EverBank Field |
| Cleveland Browns | at | Miami Dolphins | MIA-10.0 | 42.5 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Sun Life Stadium |
| Denver Broncos | at | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN-3.5 | 41.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Paul Brown Stadium |
| Detroit Lions | at | Green Bay Packers | GB -7.5 | 47.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Lambeau Field |
| Minnesota Vikings | at | Carolina Panthers | CAR-7.0 | 43.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Bank of America Stadium |
| Oakland Raiders | at | Tennessee Titans | TEN-1.5 | 47.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | Nissan Stadium |
| Washington Redskins | at | New York Giants | NYG-4.5 | 46.5 | Sun, Sep 25 | 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium |
| Los Angeles Rams | at | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -5.0 | 42.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 4:05 PM | Raymond James Stadium |
| San Francisco 49ers | at | Seattle Seahawks | SEA-9.5 | 40.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 4:05 PM | CenturyLink Field |
| New York Jets | at | Kansas City Chiefs | KC -3.0 | 42.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 4:25 PM | Arrowhead Stadium |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | at | Philadelphia Eagles | PIT-3.5 | 46.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 4:25 PM | Lincoln Financial Field |
| San Diego Chargers | at | Indianapolis Colts | IND-2.5 | 51.0 | Sun, Sep 25 | 4:25 PM | Lucas Oil Stadium |
| Chicago Bears | at | Dallas Cowboys | DAL-7.5 | 44.5 | Sun, Sep 25 | 8:30 PM | AT&T Stadium |
| Atlanta Falcons | at | New Orleans Saints | NO -3.0 | 53.5 | Mon, Sep 26 | 8:30 PM | Superdome |
Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups
| Offense | Matchup | Spread | Team Total | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RUN | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. TE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | Atlanta | -3.0 | 28.3 | 32 | 30 | 23 | 25 | 11 | 29 |
| Green Bay Packers | Detroit | -7.5 | 27.3 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 7 | 17 | 30 |
| Indianapolis Colts | San Diego | -2.5 | 26.8 | 26 | 13 | 32 | 11 | 15 | 23 |
| Miami Dolphins | Cleveland | -10.0 | 26.3 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 24 | 14 | 21 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Chicago | -7.5 | 26.0 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 25 | 25 |
| New York Giants | Washington | -4.5 | 25.5 | 27 | 20 | 29 | 26 | 32 | 18 |
| Arizona Cardinals | at Buffalo | -3.5 | 25.3 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 30 | 23 | 12 |
| Atlanta Falcons | at New Orleans | + 3.0 | 25.3 | 31 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 30 | 10 |
| Carolina Panthers | Minnesota | -7.0 | 25.0 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 16 |
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco | -9.5 | 24.8 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 7 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | at Philadelphia | -3.5 | 24.8 | 14 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 7 |
| San Diego Chargers | at Indianapolis | + 2.5 | 24.3 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 23 | 6 | 32 |
| Baltimore Ravens | at Jacksonville | -1.5 | 24.3 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 19 |
| Tennessee Titans | Oakland | -1.5 | 24.3 | 29 | 32 | 28 | 31 | 29 | 20 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Los Angeles | -5.0 | 23.5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 27 | 15 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Baltimore | + 1.5 | 22.8 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 4 |
| Oakland Raiders | at Tennessee | + 1.5 | 22.8 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | N.Y. Jets | -3.0 | 22.5 | 19 | 29 | 9 | 20 | 31 | 9 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Denver | -3.5 | 22.3 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| Buffalo Bills | Arizona | + 3.5 | 21.8 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh | + 3.5 | 21.3 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 2 |
| Washington Redskins | at N.Y. Giants | + 4.5 | 21.0 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 6 | 26 | 3 |
| New England Patriots | Houston | -1.0 | 20.3 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 5 |
| Detroit Lions | at Green Bay | + 7.5 | 19.8 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 19 | 28 | 28 |
| New York Jets | at Kansas City | + 3.0 | 19.5 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| Houston Texans | at New England | + 1.0 | 19.3 | 18 | 28 | 24 | 14 | 20 | 27 |
| Denver Broncos | at Cincinnati | + 3.5 | 18.8 | 11 | 12 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| Chicago Bears | at Dallas | + 7.5 | 18.5 | 17 | 17 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 26 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at Tampa Bay | + 5.0 | 18.5 | 16 | 27 | 5 | 18 | 19 | 13 |
| Minnesota Vikings | at Carolina | + 7.0 | 18.0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 17 |
| Cleveland Browns | at Miami | + 10.0 | 16.3 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 12 | 31 |
| San Francisco 49ers | at Seattle | + 9.5 | 15.3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
Plays Per Game & Pace of Play
| Offense | Matchup | Team PPG | Opp. PPG | Exp. PPG | PPG +/- | Team Pace | Opp. Pace | Exp. Pace | Proj. Game Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | Atlanta | 65.8 | 64.8 | 65.3 | -0.5 | 25.4 | 27.0 | 26.2 | 13 |
| Green Bay Packers | Detroit | 62.3 | 64.8 | 63.5 | 1.3 | 27.8 | 26.9 | 27.4 | 6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | San Diego | 65.8 | 66.3 | 66.0 | 0.3 | 25.6 | 30.5 | 28.1 | 10 |
| Miami Dolphins | Cleveland | 67.3 | 63.3 | 65.3 | -2.0 | 24.7 | 26.8 | 25.8 | 14 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Chicago | 64.5 | 61.0 | 62.8 | -1.8 | 28.7 | 27.1 | 27.9 | 3 |
| New York Giants | Washington | 65.8 | 63.0 | 64.4 | -1.4 | 26.0 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 11 |
| Arizona Cardinals | at Buffalo | 66.5 | 58.5 | 62.5 | -4.0 | 26.0 | 28.7 | 27.4 | 4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | at New Orleans | 64.8 | 65.8 | 65.3 | 0.5 | 27.0 | 25.4 | 26.2 | 13 |
| Carolina Panthers | Minnesota | 66.8 | 61.8 | 64.3 | -2.5 | 26.7 | 28.7 | 27.7 | 9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco | 62.8 | 69.8 | 66.3 | 3.5 | 27.2 | 23.6 | 25.4 | 16 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | at Philadelphia | 67.5 | 60.3 | 63.9 | -3.6 | 27.6 | 30.7 | 29.2 | 1 |
| San Diego Chargers | at Indianapolis | 66.3 | 65.8 | 66.0 | -0.3 | 30.5 | 25.6 | 28.1 | 10 |
| Baltimore Ravens | at Jacksonville | 60.8 | 63.5 | 62.1 | 1.4 | 26.9 | 25.2 | 26.1 | 8 |
| Tennessee Titans | Oakland | 63.3 | 66.0 | 64.6 | 1.4 | 28.8 | 27.4 | 28.1 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Los Angeles | 66.3 | 64.0 | 65.1 | -1.1 | 25.1 | 28.6 | 26.9 | 11 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Baltimore | 63.5 | 60.8 | 62.1 | -1.4 | 25.2 | 26.9 | 26.1 | 8 |
| Oakland Raiders | at Tennessee | 66.0 | 63.3 | 64.6 | -1.4 | 27.4 | 28.8 | 28.1 | 6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | N.Y. Jets | 67.0 | 60.8 | 63.9 | -3.1 | 25.2 | 31.0 | 28.1 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Denver | 67.3 | 64.0 | 65.6 | -1.6 | 23.0 | 27.9 | 25.5 | 15 |
| Buffalo Bills | Arizona | 58.5 | 66.5 | 62.5 | 4.0 | 28.7 | 26.0 | 27.4 | 4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Pittsburgh | 60.3 | 67.5 | 63.9 | 3.6 | 30.7 | 27.6 | 29.2 | 1 |
| Washington Redskins | at N.Y. Giants | 63.0 | 65.8 | 64.4 | 1.4 | 25.6 | 26.0 | 25.8 | 11 |
| New England Patriots | Houston | 65.5 | 63.8 | 64.6 | -0.9 | 29.0 | 28.6 | 28.8 | 5 |
| Detroit Lions | at Green Bay | 64.8 | 62.3 | 63.5 | -1.3 | 26.9 | 27.8 | 27.4 | 6 |
| New York Jets | at Kansas City | 60.8 | 67.0 | 63.9 | 3.1 | 31.0 | 25.2 | 28.1 | 2 |
| Houston Texans | at New England | 63.8 | 65.5 | 64.6 | 0.9 | 28.6 | 29.0 | 28.8 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | at Cincinnati | 64.0 | 67.3 | 65.6 | 1.6 | 27.9 | 23.0 | 25.5 | 15 |
| Chicago Bears | at Dallas | 61.0 | 64.5 | 62.8 | 1.8 | 27.1 | 28.7 | 27.9 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | at Tampa Bay | 64.0 | 66.3 | 65.1 | 1.1 | 28.6 | 25.1 | 26.9 | 11 |
| Minnesota Vikings | at Carolina | 61.8 | 66.8 | 64.3 | 2.5 | 28.7 | 26.7 | 27.7 | 9 |
| Cleveland Browns | at Miami | 63.3 | 67.3 | 65.3 | 2.0 | 26.8 | 24.7 | 25.8 | 14 |
| San Francisco 49ers | at Seattle | 69.8 | 62.8 | 66.3 | -3.5 | 23.6 | 27.2 | 25.4 | 16 |