NFL First Look: Week 14

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-08 14:48:41

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The NFL First Look is complete with sortable odds, implied team totals, pace of play, DVOA rankings and each team’s projected starters to help you get an early start on the upcoming week.

Week 13 Thoughts

— The Cowboys only won by two points, but it was an impressive win on the road against the Vikings in a game where Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott weren’t at their best.
— The Vikings are quickly falling out of the playoff contention and out of the hearts of DFS players everywhere.
— As long as Jeremy Maclin is out, we can continue to target Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. The two combined to see 14 of Alex Smith 25 pass attempts.
— The Falcons took the lead late in the fourth quarter and lost because of a failed two-point conversion where the Chiefs picked it off and ran it back for two points. Yikes.
— Matthew Stafford has been terrific this season, but the Lions’ offense sees a major decline in production outdoors.
— Drew Brees had one of his worst games ever at home and I was there to see it in person. That loss essentially took the Saints out of the playoff picture.
— Stream defenses against the Rams. Steam defenses against the Rams. Stream defenses against the Rams.
— Awful news about Rob Gronkowski, but his injury does give a boost to the rest of the pass catchers in the Patriots’ offense.
— Paxton Lynch is not ready to be a starting quarterback. The Broncos’ defense saved the day yet again in Week 13.
— My poor Jaguars are 2-10 and it doesn’t appear like there is light at the end of the tunnel. Just a black hole named Bortles that sucks up everything around it.
— After a loss to the Packers, Brock Osweiler said that the Texans’ offense was close to breaking out. Do not believe this man.
— Not counting Aaron Rodgers, the Packers had six players with at least one carry on Sunday. That’s like trying to share a small pizza with five other people.
— The Eagles are 4-1 at home and 1-6 on the road. These massive home/road splits may come in handy the next few weeks.
— Andy Dalton completed passes to nine different receivers on Sunday. It’s close, but I still have their pass catchers ranked in this order: Tyler Eifert, Brandon LaFell, and then Tyler Boyd.
— The Dolphins are bad.
— The Ravens’ defense is really good. Their offense continues to be an easy fade in DFS outside of the occasional Steve Smith or Mike Wallace play.
— Right when it looked like Colin Kaepernick was a safe cash game option, he gets benched. He’s a great bounce-back candidate in Week 14 against the Jets.
— The Bears really want to give Jordan Howard the ball, as evidenced by his 32 carries. The Bears aren’t going to be playing with many leads moving forward though.
— Mike Gillislee stole two more touchdowns from LeSean McCoy. He is the real MVP – Most Vulturizing Player.
— The Raiders won another game where they came from behind. I want this to be real, but have a hard time believing in teams that win so many close games.
— Rashad Jennings played on 50% of the snaps against the Steelers. Basically, Odell Beckham is the only reliable target left on the Giants.
— Ladarius Green could be a thing in favorable tight end matchups. He played on 35 snaps against the Giants and caught six of 11 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown.
— Kirk Cousins played fairly well considering his matchup against the Cardinals and the fact that he was missing his best wideout in Jordan Reed.
— I sure hope Bruce Arians doesn’t get excited about Carson Palmer 300-yard game (99% chance he will). GIVE THE BALL TO DAVID JOHNSON.
— The Buccaneers picked up a win on the road in a game where Mike Evans was held to three catches for 38 yards. Color me impressed.
— Who loses games in a more brutal manner? The Chargers or the Falcons? Philip Rivers has had some truly terrible fourth quarters this year.
— Cam Newton was punished for wearing arguably his most appropriate outfit of the season. Heads will roll in Carolina after this season.
— People (including myself) overreact too often week-to-week. Thomas Rawls went from being the absolute chalk to less than 5% owned. Lessons can be learned here.
— Andrew Luck looks poised for a big finish to the season. I’m riding his coat tails the rest of the way, especially in games at home.
— J-E-T-S…. Jets! Jets? Jets 😞 It’s hard to have any excitement for this team, for DFS and for fans.

Color Coding

1) Numbers in BLUE represent the “elite” category, in approximately the top 25th percentile.
2) Numbers in GREEN represent the “above-average” category, in approximately the top 50th percentile.
3) Numbers in YELLOW represent the “below-average” category, in approximately the bottom 50th percentile.
4) Numbers in RED represent the “poor” category, in approximately the bottom 25th percentile.

NFL Schedule & Vegas Lines

Implied Team Totals & DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column.

Implied Team Totals & DvP Matchups

Note: The DvP rankings in this chart are for the opponent of the offense listed in the first column. They are also adjusted for strength of schedule.

Plays Per Game & Pace of Play

Projected Starters

First Look Legend