DRAFT Best Ball Championship Roster and Player Ownership Breakdown
The DRAFT Best Ball Championships comes to a conclusion this week with three season-long champions being crowned at three different buy-in levels. The high stakes Mega Championship will see the winner take home a cool $150,000. The Million Dollar Championship will award its winner a six-figure first-place prize of $100,000, and the low buy-in Mini Championship will see $5 turn into $20,000 for the eventual champion.
Editor’s Note: Read JoshADHD’s statistical analysis and final takeaways from this season of DRAFT Best Ball!
These contests were all Best Ball format season-long drafts that took place before Week 1 of the NFL season with each player drafting an 18 player team and no player having more than 150 entries in any contest. The top scores from each league after the first twelve weeks of the season advanced to the playoffs that saw a three-week tournament of 12 person one-week Best Ball contests take place with the top three in each contest advancing to the next round. In total, 132 teams (60 in the Championship) advanced to this weeks Finals. Let’s take a look at the Payouts for each contest, some numbers showing how the Championship rosters were constructed, and then do a breakdown of some ownership numbers and how it could impact these contests.
Best Ball Championship Payouts
Mega Best Ball Championship Payouts
Mini Best Ball Championship Payouts
Roster Construction
QB
1 – .8%
2 – 49.2%
3 – 48.5%
4 – 1.5%
RB
4 – 3.0%
5 – 28.8%
6 – 51.5%
7 – 15.9%
8 – 0.8%
WR
5 – 0.8%
6 – 22.7%
7 – 44.7%
8 – 27.3%
9 – 4.6%
TE
1 – 0.8%
2 – 47.7%
3 – 48.5%
4 – 2.3%
5 – 0.8%
RB + WR
11 – 2.3%
12 – 28.0%
13 – 43.2%
14 – 25.8%
15 – 0.8%
WR + TE
8 – 4.6%
9 – 39.4%
10 – 42.4%
11 – 12.1%
12 – 1.5%
Positional Stacks
RB – 37 (LA 1st with 7, NE 2nd with 4, TEN 3rd with 3)
WR – 46 (NE and PHI 1st with 5, GB, JAC, LA, MIA, PIT, and WAS all with 3)
QB+RB+WR (at least one of each) – 19 (ATL and PIT with 3, KC, OAK, and TEN with 2)
Team Stacks
QB Ownership
| Player Name | Team | Percent Owned | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 37.88 | ||
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 17.42 | ||
| Derek Carr | OAK | 13.64 | ||
| Andrew Luck | IND | 11.36 | ||
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 11.36 | ||
| Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | 9.85 | ||
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 9.85 | ||
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | 9.85 | ||
| Tom Brady | NE | 9.09 | ||
| Philip Rivers | LAC | 8.33 | ||
| Jared Goff | LA | 7.58 | ||
| Deshaun Watson | HOU | 7.58 | ||
| Jameis Winston | TB | 7.58 | ||
| Cam Newton | CAR | 7.58 | ||
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 6.82 | ||
| Alex Smith | WAS | 6.82 | ||
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 6.06 | ||
| Carson Wentz | PHI | 6.06 | ||
| Case Keenum | DEN | 5.30 | ||
| Tyrod Taylor | CLE | 5.30 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 4.55 | ||
| Eli Manning | NYG | 4.55 | ||
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 4.55 | ||
| Blake Bortles | JAC | 4.55 | ||
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 4.55 | ||
| Drew Brees | NO | 3.79 | ||
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 3.79 | ||
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 3.03 | ||
| Sam Darnold | NYJ | 2.27 | ||
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 2.27 | ||
| Josh Rosen | ARI | 2.27 | ||
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 2.27 | ||
| Sam Bradford | 2.27 | |||
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 0.00 |
Analysis
There are two ways to look at the ownership and how it’ll impact the results this weekend. One, if a high-owned player does well it’ll favor the groups of teams that have that player. Conversely, if that player does poorly, those that don’t have that player on their roster will gain leverage on the large number that does. The second thing to look at is low-owned players. If one of these players has a massive game it can be a huge advantage over those that don’t.
I did find it was interesting that the consensus #1 QB this pre-season (Aaron Rodgers) was not on a single team (why I included him here). J.J. Zachariason (LateRoundQB) is pounding his chest right about now.
For each section I am going to list the players that have the highest impact due to high ownership and projected value (using RG projections) and those low-owned players that could have a massive impact (also determined using RG projections).
High-Owned Players
Patrick Mahomes (by a long shot)
Matt Ryan
To a lesser extent, Andrew Luck, Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dak Prescott.
Low-Owned Players
Sam Darnold
Matthew Stafford
Drew Brees
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
RB Ownership
High-Owned Players
Christian McCaffrey and Todd Gurley are the clear dominators here. If either have a standout game (either good or bad), it’ll have a huge impact. Ezekiel Elliott is another big name that could swing things to a lesser extent, but it’s values like Derrick Henry, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon, and Chris Carson that could have the biggest impact of the high-owned group.
Low-Owned Players
The likes of Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook are not on many of the championship rosters because of injuries this season, but all three are expected to play this week and if they have a big game could be a game-winner for the few teams that have them on their rosters. To a lesser extent the same could be said for LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Elijah McGuire, and David Johnson.
WR Ownership
High-Owned Players
Ownership at WR is spread out pretty thin, but the following all have enough ownership that their performances will have some impact:
Davante Adams
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Amari Cooper
Jarvis Landry
Julian Edelman
Robert Woods
Mike Williams
DeAndre Hopkins
Kenny Golladay
Low-Owned Players
Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans are all players owned on 6% or less of the teams that could swing things.
TE Ownership
| Player Name | Team | Percent Owned | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | KC | 32.58 | ||
| Jared Cook | OAK | 19.70 | ||
| Eric Ebron | IND | 17.42 | ||
| George Kittle | SF | 17.42 | ||
| Austin Hooper | ATL | 16.67 | ||
| OJ Howard | TB | 10.61 | ||
| Vance McDonald | PIT | 9.85 | ||
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 8.33 | ||
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 8.33 | ||
| Mike Gesicki | MIA | 7.58 | ||
| Vernon Davis | WAS | 6.82 | ||
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 6.82 | ||
| Jimmy Graham | GB | 6.06 | ||
| Cameron Brate | TB | 6.06 | ||
| Trey Burton | CHI | 6.06 | ||
| Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | 6.06 | ||
| Hayden Hurst | BAL | 6.06 | ||
| Jaylen Samuels | PIT | 5.30 | ||
| Benjamin Watson | NO | 5.30 | ||
| Jake Butt | DEN | 5.30 | ||
| David Njoku | CLE | 4.55 | ||
| Evan Engram | NYG | 3.79 | ||
| Delanie Walker | TEN | 3.79 | ||
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | JAC | 3.79 | ||
| Tyler Eifert | CIN | 3.79 | ||
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 3.03 | ||
| Ryan Griffin | HOU | 3.03 | ||
| Charles Clay | BUF | 3.03 | ||
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 3.03 | ||
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 2.27 | ||
| Virgil Green | LAC | 2.27 | ||
| Luke Willson | DET | 2.27 | ||
| Jack Doyle | IND | 2.27 | ||
| Gerald Everett | LA | 1.52 | ||
| Antonio Gates | LAC | 0.76 | ||
| Garrett Celek | SF | 0.76 | ||
| Jonnu Smith | TEN | 0.76 | ||
| Rico Gathers | DAL | 0.76 | ||
| Tyler Kroft | CIN | 0.76 |
High-Owned Players
Travis Kelce and it’s not particularly close. His performance this week will swing things for a number of teams. Eric Ebron, George Kittle, and Jared Cook all have high impact scores but nothing like Kelce’s and Austin Hooper and Zach Ertz to a lesser extent matter somewhat.
Low-Owned Players
Jaylen Samuels is the stand out here as he is a drafted TE playing RB and 7 teams have him on their roster. The three teams that have Rob Gronkowksi could also benefit.